{"entities":[{"id":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models-2025-06","name":"Contemporary AI foundation models increase biological weapons risk","subtype":"Working paper","description":"RAND working paper WR-A3853-1, arXiv v1 (12 June 2025). The arXiv abstract page for 2506.13798 records the v1 submission as 12 June 2025 and the report number WR-A3853-1 (`arxiv-2506-13798-abs`); the PDF's cover reads \"June 2025\" (`brent-mckelvey-2025`). A later RAND perspective (PEA3853-1) with a similar title was seen in search results and was not retrieved.","sourceIds":["source-ab-brent-mckelvey-2025","source-ab-arxiv-2506-13798-abs"]},{"id":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift","name":"Currently available AI systems increase an actor's biological-misuse capability"},{"id":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck","name":"The binding barrier is physical execution rather than information"},{"id":"ab-prop-evaluation-validity","name":"Published evaluations do not establish real-world biological risk"},{"id":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope","name":"Assessment must cover actors who already hold relevant skills"},{"id":"rand-corporation","name":"RAND Corporation"}],"claims":[{"id":"ab-arg-d1-brent-articulates","statement":"The RAND working paper \"Contemporary AI foundation models increase biological weapons risk\" (WR-A3853-1, arXiv v1 of 12 June 2025) states that contemporary AI models can meaningfully contribute to biological weapons development, against published safety assessments that assert minimal risk.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ab-arg-d1-brent-articulates-1","evidence-ab-arg-d1-brent-articulates-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a finding of the paper's own model dialogues, which are not described here."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d2-brent-contests","statement":"The RAND working paper of 12 June 2025 states that safety assessments mistakenly assume that biological weapons development requires tacit knowledge, that is, expertise gained through experience that cannot be conveyed in words.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ab-arg-d2-brent-contests-1","evidence-ab-arg-d2-brent-contests-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Contests the premise as the paper states other assessments hold it.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The paper names the tacit-knowledge premise and argues against it from historical cases."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d3-brent-articulates","statement":"The RAND working paper of 12 June 2025 states that flawed safety assessments resting on tacit knowledge and inadequate benchmarks may create a false sense of security, leading to weak safeguards and regulatory gaps.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ab-arg-d3-brent-articulates-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Argues that the direction of the measurement error is an understatement of risk."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d7-brent-articulates","statement":"The RAND working paper of 12 June 2025 states that safety assessments rely on benchmarks that overlook the full range of potential threat actors and fail to account for how AI could enhance the capabilities of skilled individuals as well as enabling non-experts.","derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ab-arg-d7-brent-articulates-1","evidence-ab-arg-d7-brent-articulates-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the point as a criticism of benchmark coverage."}}}],"sources":[{"id":"source-ab-brent-mckelvey-2025","title":"Contemporary AI foundation models increase biological weapons risk","authors":["RAND Corporation (working paper WR-A3853-1), posted to arXiv"],"publisher":"RAND Corporation (working paper WR-A3853-1), posted to arXiv","publicationDate":null,"version":"Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-28 (SHA-256 1cc64de0a880543bda08d64374ee47539c029c55b187ab3f4e66603e3f8ad7e5). arXiv v1 of 12 June 2025; the PDF is the RAND working paper WR-A3853-1 of June 2025, marked \"not been formally reviewed or edited\" Retrieved again at admission on 2026-10-30 (SHA-256 1cc64de0a880543bda08d64374ee47539c029c55b187ab3f4e66603e3f8ad7e5, the same bytes).","evidenceUrl":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.13798v1","language":"en"},{"id":"source-ab-arxiv-2506-13798-abs","title":"arXiv abstract page for 2506.13798 (submission history and report number)","authors":["arXiv (Cornell University)"],"publisher":"arXiv (Cornell University)","publicationDate":null,"version":"Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-28 (SHA-256 64847d8461f1f0361daccfb569e8d6cc053bfd8a4125c5339eeda6ec8bb06c17). Abstract page as served on 2026-10-28; used only for the v1 submission date and the RAND report number Retrieved again at admission on 2026-10-30 (SHA-256 63834668f90e3a0e80b98abc1ee48e42834a3ecc9060acc685a1a048bafb24e2). Its wording can change; earlier wording is not authenticated.","evidenceUrl":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.13798","language":"en"}],"evidence":[{"id":"evidence-ab-arg-d1-brent-articulates-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-arg-d1-brent-articulates-2","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-arg-d2-brent-contests-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-arg-d2-brent-contests-2","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-arg-d3-brent-articulates-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-arg-d7-brent-articulates-1","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ab-arg-d7-brent-articulates-2","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"}],"at":{"entities":[1235,1254,1255,1256,1260,1262],"claims":[3431,3432,3433,3434],"sources":[1076,1077],"evidence":[4732,4733,4734,4735,4736,4737,4738]},"version":"1lg47t7"}