{"index":{"byClaim":[["pr-c-grace-2024-every-task",["predictions:predictions-on-record"]],["pr-c-grace-2024-occupations",["predictions:predictions-on-record"]]],"marks":[],"chronicle":{"years":[{"year":1637,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1843,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1863,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1865,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1872,"topics":{"ideas":12},"stated":0},{"year":1923,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1943,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1947,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1948,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1949,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1950,"topics":{"ideas":13},"stated":0},{"year":1951,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1952,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1955,"topics":{"ideas":32},"stated":0},{"year":1956,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1957,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1958,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1959,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1960,"topics":{"ideas":12},"stated":0},{"year":1961,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1965,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1966,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1968,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1969,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1971,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1972,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1973,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1974,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1975,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1976,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1977,"topics":{"people":2,"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1979,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1980,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1981,"topics":{"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":1982,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1983,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1984,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1985,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1986,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1987,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1988,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1989,"topics":{"ideas":26},"stated":0},{"year":1990,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1991,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1992,"topics":{"ideas":15},"stated":0},{"year":1993,"topics":{"ideas":27,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":1994,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1995,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":1996,"topics":{"ideas":83},"stated":0},{"year":1997,"topics":{"ideas":19},"stated":0},{"year":1998,"topics":{"ideas":56},"stated":0},{"year":1999,"topics":{"ideas":33,"people":1,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2000,"topics":{"ideas":77},"stated":0},{"year":2001,"topics":{"ideas":55},"stated":0},{"year":2002,"topics":{"ideas":32},"stated":0},{"year":2003,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":2004,"topics":{"ideas":14,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":2005,"topics":{"ideas":20,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2006,"topics":{"ideas":26,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2007,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":2008,"topics":{"ideas":67,"people":3,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2009,"topics":{"ideas":13,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2010,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":14,"institutions":1,"governance":4},"stated":0},{"year":2011,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":20,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2012,"topics":{"people":4,"ideas":20,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2013,"topics":{"ideas":47,"people":4,"institutions":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2014,"topics":{"institutions":2,"ideas":62,"people":5},"stated":0},{"year":2015,"topics":{"people":23,"ideas":133,"institutions":3,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2016,"topics":{"ideas":88,"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":2017,"topics":{"people":16,"institutions":2,"ideas":133,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2018,"topics":{"people":9,"ideas":163,"institutions":8,"governance":1},"stated":0},{"year":2019,"topics":{"capital":1,"compute":1,"people":11,"governance":19,"ideas":176,"institutions":4},"stated":0},{"year":2020,"topics":{"people":6,"ideas":98,"institutions":1,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2021,"topics":{"people":27,"ideas":178,"compute":1,"institutions":23,"governance":4,"capital":6},"stated":0},{"year":2022,"topics":{"people":15,"ideas":233,"institutions":6,"governance":3,"compute":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2023,"topics":{"capital":14,"compute":7,"institutions":25,"people":55,"governance":239,"ideas":414},"stated":0},{"year":2024,"topics":{"capital":31,"compute":19,"governance":367,"people":103,"ideas":185,"institutions":32},"stated":1},{"year":2025,"topics":{"governance":795,"compute":69,"capital":61,"people":145,"institutions":26,"ideas":191},"stated":7},{"year":2026,"topics":{"governance":619,"capital":30,"compute":32,"institutions":23,"ideas":99,"people":139},"stated":19},{"year":2027,"topics":{},"stated":8},{"year":2028,"topics":{},"stated":6},{"year":2029,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2030,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2032,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2035,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2039,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2042,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2050,"topics":{},"stated":1}],"scheduled":[],"statedBy":[]},"collections":[{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"antecedent-texts"},"title":"Antecedent texts: machine intelligence before 1965","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"superintelligence"},"title":"Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2025","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"risk-debate"},"title":"Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI, 1863–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"yudkowsky-arguments"},"title":"Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"machine-succession"},"title":"Machine succession, scale and acceleration: propositions in located texts, 1863–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"economics-of-machine-intelligence"},"title":"Economics of machine intelligence: texts from 1952 to 2026 that state, contest or bear on its propositions","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"orbital-compute-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about compute in orbit","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-bio-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about AI and biological risk","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-in-science"},"title":"AI in science","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"documents"},"title":"Frontier safety frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"compare","id":"frontier-safety-frameworks"},"title":"Compare frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"openai"},"title":"OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"anthropic"},"title":"Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"commitments"},"title":"External commitments and obligations","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"question","id":"frameworks-to-obligations"},"title":"Frameworks, commitments and legal obligations, 2023–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"reading"},"title":"Founding and early leadership","claimIds":[]}]},"version":"lq5ag3","build":"index-BTwlRauQ.js","packed":1,"at":{"entities":[2186],"claims":[6626,1],"sources":[2070],"evidence":[9014,1]},"records":{"entities":{"n":1,"fields":{"id":["grace-et-al-2024-thousands-of-ai-authors"],"name":["Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI"],"type":["document"],"subtype":["Preprint"],"description":["Katja Grace and co-authors’ report of a survey of authors of AI publications conducted in October 2023 (arXiv:2401.02843, version 1)."],"sourceIds":[["source-pr-grace-2024-arxiv-v1"]]}},"claims":{"n":2,"fields":{"id":["pr-c-grace-2024-every-task","pr-c-grace-2024-occupations"],"subject":["grace-et-al-2024-thousands-of-ai-authors","grace-et-al-2024-thousands-of-ai-authors"],"predicate":["states_prediction","states_prediction"],"object":[{"kind":"literal","value":"unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task"},{"kind":"literal","value":"all human occupations becoming fully automatable"}],"topic":["ideas","ideas"],"statement":["“Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI” (2024-01-05) reports a survey result (Grace et al., survey of AI authors (2023)): “unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task”; horizon as stated: 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.","“Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI” (2024-01-05) reports a survey result (Grace et al., survey of AI authors (2023)): “all human occupations becoming fully automatable”; horizon as stated: 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116. The record says nothing about whether the event happened."],"time":[{"kind":"event","date":"2024-01-05","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the survey report; when the survey was conducted is in the record’s survey details. Survey conducted in October 2023."},{"kind":"event","date":"2024-01-05","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the survey report; when the survey was conducted is in the record’s survey details."}],"derivation":["explicit","explicit"],"resolution":["supported","supported"],"editorialState":["seed","seed"],"evidenceIds":[["evidence-pr-c-grace-2024-every-task-1"],["evidence-pr-c-grace-2024-occupations-1"]],"attributes":[{"prediction":{"form":"expert-survey","predictor":{"kind":"survey","label":"Grace et al., survey of AI authors (2023)"},"event":{"type":"quote","text":"unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task"},"horizon":{"asStated":"10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047","words":"10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047","kind":"quantile","years":[2027,2047],"precision":"year"},"probability":{"asStated":"10%; 50%","words":"10% by 2027"},"points":[{"probability":"10%","horizon":"by 2027"},{"probability":"50%","horizon":"by 2047"}],"conditions":"If science continues undisrupted.","survey":{"conducted":"2023","statistic":"aggregate forecast"}}},{"prediction":{"form":"expert-survey","predictor":{"kind":"survey","label":"Grace et al., survey of AI authors (2023)"},"event":{"type":"quote","text":"all human occupations becoming fully automatable"},"horizon":{"asStated":"10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116","words":"10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116","kind":"quantile","years":[2037,2116],"precision":"year"},"probability":{"asStated":"10%; 50%","words":"10% by 2037"},"points":[{"probability":"10%","horizon":"by 2037"},{"probability":"50%","horizon":"as late as 2116"}],"survey":{"conducted":"2023","statistic":"aggregate forecast"}}}]}},"sources":{"n":1,"fields":{"id":["source-pr-grace-2024-arxiv-v1"],"documentId":["grace-et-al-2024-thousands-of-ai-authors"],"title":["Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI"],"authors":[["Katja Grace","Harlan Stewart","Julia Fabienne Sandkühler","Stephen Thomas","Ben Weinstein-Raun","Jan Brauner"]],"publisher":["arXiv:2401.02843v1"],"publicationDate":["2024-01-05"],"version":["arXiv version 1. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 98ebcf757938892552d5a91a0e630486e0751339125480bba18fad145209cea1). Survey conducted in October 2023."],"evidenceUrl":["https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.02843v1"],"language":["en"]}},"evidence":{"n":2,"fields":{"id":["evidence-pr-c-grace-2024-every-task-1","evidence-pr-c-grace-2024-occupations-1"],"claimId":["pr-c-grace-2024-every-task","pr-c-grace-2024-occupations"],"sourceId":["source-pr-grace-2024-arxiv-v1","source-pr-grace-2024-arxiv-v1"],"sourceRole":["primary","primary"],"support":["supports","supports"],"verification":["machine_checked","machine_checked"],"retrievalRoute":["direct","direct"]}}}}