{"entities":[{"id":"cosmic-expansion","name":"Machine intelligence spreads beyond Earth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W10","criterion":"Machine intelligence will or could spread from Earth into space and through the universe, or convert the matter of the cosmos into intelligence.","terms":[]}},{"id":"cosmic-process","name":"Machine intelligence as a physical or cosmic process","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W09","criterion":"The rise of machine intelligence is an expression of a physical, evolutionary or cosmological process larger than humanity (such as thermodynamics, the evolution of complexity or a cosmic destiny of intelligence).","terms":[]}},{"id":"kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","name":"The Law of Accelerating Returns","type":"document","subtype":"Essay","description":"An essay by Ray Kurzweil, The Kurzweil Library, dated 7 March 2001. The kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001 states that the essay was written in November 2000 and published on 7 March 2001; the Kurzweil Library page read for the pack labels it January 2001 and is itself dated 1 January 2025.","sourceIds":["source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar"]},{"id":"machine-succession","name":"Machines succeed humans as the leading intelligence","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W01","criterion":"Machine intelligence will or could replace or succeed human beings as the dominant or leading form of intelligence on Earth, or as the principal agent of further development, whether or not humans survive.","terms":["genetic takeover","postbiological","post-biological","AI succession"]}},{"id":"mind-transfer","name":"Human minds transferred into machines","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W03","criterion":"A human mind could be transferred to, copied into or continued in a machine substrate, so that human beings could themselves become machine intelligences.","terms":["upload","transmigration"]}},{"id":"succession-acceptable","name":"Succession by machines would be acceptable or desirable","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W02","criterion":"The replacement or succession of human beings by machine intelligence (W01) would be acceptable, desirable or worth pursuing, for example because machines would be humanity's descendants or because the growth of intelligence matters more than its human form.","terms":["mind children","worthy successor"]}},{"id":"vast-superiority","name":"Superiority by many orders of magnitude","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W05","criterion":"Machine intelligence could come to exceed human intelligence or overall cognitive capacity not moderately but by many orders of magnitude (a factor stated as trillions, or comparable to the gap between humans and much simpler organisms or matter). Capacity here means intelligence or overall cognitive capacity, not a robot's sensorimotor or output capacity.","terms":[]}}],"claims":[{"id":"ht-w01-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","subject":"kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-succession"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kurzweil's essay of 2001 states that most of the intelligence of our civilisation will ultimately be nonbiological, and that this \"does not imply the end of biological intelligence, even if thrown from its perch of evolutionary superiority\", holding that the civilisation will remain human.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-03-07","basis":"publication","note":"Published 7 March 2001 and written in November 2000, as the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001 states (cross-family check of 2026-11-01). The Kurzweil Library page read for the pack labels it January 2001."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w01-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","evidence-ht-w01-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-01","note":"The wording was read in the Kurzweil Library page dated January 1, 2025. The cross-family check found other passages of the essay in the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001; not every passage of this record was compared with it."}}}},{"id":"ht-w02-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","subject":"kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"succession-acceptable"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kurzweil's essay of 2001 holds that the Singularity is not a danger to be avoided but the goal of civilisation, and regards the freeing of the human mind from its physical limitations of scope and duration as the necessary next step in evolution.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-03-07","basis":"publication","note":"Published 7 March 2001 and written in November 2000, as the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001 states (cross-family check of 2026-11-01). The Kurzweil Library page read for the pack labels it January 2001."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w02-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The essay endorses a transition in which human civilisation continues in nonbiological form; it does not hold that the replacement of human beings by machines would be acceptable.","attested":{"date":"2025-01-01","note":"The wording was read in the Kurzweil Library page dated January 1, 2025. The cross-family check found other passages of the essay in the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001; not every passage of this record was compared with it."}}}},{"id":"ht-w03-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","subject":"kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"mind-transfer"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kurzweil's essay of 2001 states that a scanned brain's entire organisation, including its memory, can be re-created on a neural computer, and that human mental processes will need to be ported to a more suitable computational substrate.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-03-07","basis":"publication","note":"Published 7 March 2001 and written in November 2000, as the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001 states (cross-family check of 2026-11-01). The Kurzweil Library page read for the pack labels it January 2001."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w03-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","evidence-ht-w03-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-01","note":"The wording was read in the Kurzweil Library page dated January 1, 2025. The cross-family check found other passages of the essay in the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001; not every passage of this record was compared with it."}}}},{"id":"ht-w05-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","subject":"kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"vast-superiority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kurzweil's essay of 2001 states that by the end of the century the nonbiological intelligence of civilisation will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful than human intelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-03-07","basis":"publication","note":"Published 7 March 2001 and written in November 2000, as the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001 states (cross-family check of 2026-11-01). The Kurzweil Library page read for the pack labels it January 2001."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w05-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-11-07","note":"The cross-family check found the quoted passages in the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001."}}}},{"id":"ht-w09-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","subject":"kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"cosmic-process"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kurzweil's essay of 2001 states that technological evolution is an outgrowth and continuation of biological evolution, governed by a law of accelerating returns that applies to any evolutionary process, and that the emerging intelligence will be the next step in evolution.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-03-07","basis":"publication","note":"Published 7 March 2001 and written in November 2000, as the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001 states (cross-family check of 2026-11-01). The Kurzweil Library page read for the pack labels it January 2001."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w09-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","evidence-ht-w09-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-11-07","note":"The cross-family check found the quoted passages in the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001."}}}},{"id":"ht-w10-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","subject":"kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"cosmic-expansion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kurzweil's essay of 2001 states that the growth of computation is an ongoing exponential \"at least until\" the intelligence of human-machine civilisation saturates the universe, and that once a species creates computation, \"it is only a matter of a few centuries\" before its intelligence \"begins to expand outward at the speed of light or greater\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-03-07","basis":"publication","note":"Published 7 March 2001 and written in November 2000, as the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001 states (cross-family check of 2026-11-01). The Kurzweil Library page read for the pack labels it January 2001."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w10-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","evidence-ht-w10-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-01","note":"The wording was read in the Kurzweil Library page dated January 1, 2025. The cross-family check found other passages of the essay in the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001; not every passage of this record was compared with it."}}}}],"sources":[{"id":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","documentId":"kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","title":"The Law of Accelerating Returns","authors":["Ray Kurzweil"],"publisher":"The Kurzweil Library (writingsbyraykurzweil.com), essay page","publicationDate":"2001-03-07","version":"Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-31 (SHA-256 b1235f63983668667c5abade21b45d8084f3487cc19648396665252510f29aac). The Kurzweil Library page labelled \"essay: the Law of Accelerating Returns. author: by Ray Kurzweil date: January 2001\", with a page date of January 1, 2025. Not compared with the kurzweilai.net copies of 2001 (captures listed in retrievalFailures). The cross-family check of 2026-11-01 read the kurzweilai.net copy captured on 7 November 2001, which states that the essay was written in November 2000 and published on 7 March 2001, and found the quoted passages it compared.","evidenceUrl":"https://www.writingsbyraykurzweil.com/the-law-of-accelerating-returns","language":"en","archivedUrl":"https://web.archive.org/web/20011107130154/http://www.kurzweilai.net:80/articles/art0134.html","archivedAt":"2001-11-07","accessedAt":"2026-10-31"}],"evidence":[{"id":"evidence-ht-w01-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","claimId":"ht-w01-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w01-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-2","claimId":"ht-w01-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w02-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","claimId":"ht-w02-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w03-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","claimId":"ht-w03-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w03-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-2","claimId":"ht-w03-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w05-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","claimId":"ht-w05-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w09-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","claimId":"ht-w09-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w09-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-2","claimId":"ht-w09-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w10-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-1","claimId":"ht-w10-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w10-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns-2","claimId":"ht-w10-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","sourceId":"source-ht-kurzweil-2001-loar","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"}],"at":{"entities":[1938,1939,1957,1966,1970,1989,1995],"claims":[5377,5400,5421,5446,5491,5503],"sources":[1848],"evidence":[7228,7229,7272,7310,7311,7358,7440,7441,7460,7461]},"index":{"byClaim":[["ht-w01-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns",["propositions:machine-succession"]],["ht-w02-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns",["propositions:machine-succession"]],["ht-w03-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns",["propositions:machine-succession"]],["ht-w05-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns",["propositions:machine-succession"]],["ht-w09-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns",["propositions:machine-succession"]],["ht-w10-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns",["propositions:machine-succession"]]],"marks":[["kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns",[{"collectionId":"machine-succession","propositionId":"vast-superiority","claimId":"ht-w05-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","text":"Earliest located in Machine succession, scale and acceleration: propositions in located texts, 1979–2026 for W05 Superiority by many orders of magnitude"}]]],"chronicle":{"years":[{"year":1863,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1865,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1872,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1943,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1947,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1950,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1951,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1952,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1955,"topics":{"ideas":31},"stated":0},{"year":1956,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1957,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1958,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1959,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1960,"topics":{"ideas":11},"stated":0},{"year":1961,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1965,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1966,"topics":{"ideas":20},"stated":0},{"year":1968,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1969,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1971,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1972,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1973,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1974,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1975,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1976,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1977,"topics":{"people":2,"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1979,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1980,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1981,"topics":{"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":1982,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1983,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1984,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1985,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1986,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1987,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1988,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1989,"topics":{"ideas":25},"stated":0},{"year":1990,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1991,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1992,"topics":{"ideas":15},"stated":0},{"year":1993,"topics":{"ideas":21,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":1994,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1995,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":1996,"topics":{"ideas":71},"stated":0},{"year":1997,"topics":{"ideas":17},"stated":0},{"year":1998,"topics":{"ideas":50},"stated":0},{"year":1999,"topics":{"ideas":31,"people":1,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2000,"topics":{"ideas":70},"stated":0},{"year":2001,"topics":{"ideas":52},"stated":0},{"year":2002,"topics":{"ideas":30},"stated":0},{"year":2003,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":2004,"topics":{"ideas":14,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":2005,"topics":{"ideas":20,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2006,"topics":{"ideas":26,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2007,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":2008,"topics":{"ideas":59,"people":3,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2009,"topics":{"ideas":12,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2010,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":13,"institutions":1,"governance":4},"stated":0},{"year":2011,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":15,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2012,"topics":{"people":4,"ideas":19,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2013,"topics":{"ideas":52,"people":4,"institutions":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2014,"topics":{"institutions":2,"ideas":57,"people":5},"stated":0},{"year":2015,"topics":{"people":23,"ideas":133,"institutions":3,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2016,"topics":{"ideas":88,"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":2017,"topics":{"people":16,"institutions":2,"ideas":130,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2018,"topics":{"people":9,"ideas":159,"institutions":8,"governance":1},"stated":0},{"year":2019,"topics":{"capital":1,"compute":1,"people":11,"governance":19,"ideas":175,"institutions":4},"stated":0},{"year":2020,"topics":{"people":6,"ideas":98,"institutions":1,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2021,"topics":{"people":27,"ideas":177,"compute":1,"institutions":23,"governance":4,"capital":6},"stated":0},{"year":2022,"topics":{"people":15,"ideas":228,"institutions":6,"governance":3,"compute":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2023,"topics":{"capital":14,"compute":7,"institutions":24,"people":54,"governance":179,"ideas":409},"stated":0},{"year":2024,"topics":{"capital":31,"compute":19,"governance":282,"people":103,"ideas":180,"institutions":32},"stated":1},{"year":2025,"topics":{"governance":548,"compute":69,"capital":61,"people":145,"institutions":26,"ideas":180},"stated":7},{"year":2026,"topics":{"governance":444,"capital":31,"compute":32,"institutions":23,"ideas":97,"people":139},"stated":19},{"year":2027,"topics":{},"stated":8},{"year":2028,"topics":{},"stated":6},{"year":2029,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2030,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2032,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2035,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2039,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2042,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2050,"topics":{},"stated":1}],"scheduled":[],"statedBy":[]},"collections":[{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"superintelligence"},"title":"Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"risk-debate"},"title":"Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"yudkowsky-arguments"},"title":"Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"machine-succession"},"title":"Machine succession, scale and acceleration: propositions in located texts, 1979–2026","claimIds":["ht-w01-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","ht-w02-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","ht-w03-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","ht-w05-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","ht-w09-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns","ht-w10-kurzweil-2001-law-of-accelerating-returns"],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"economics-of-machine-intelligence"},"title":"Economics of machine intelligence","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"orbital-compute-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about compute in orbit","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-bio-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about AI and biological risk","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-in-science"},"title":"AI in science","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"documents"},"title":"Frontier safety frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"compare","id":"frontier-safety-frameworks"},"title":"Compare frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"openai"},"title":"OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"anthropic"},"title":"Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"commitments"},"title":"External commitments and obligations","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"question","id":"frameworks-to-obligations"},"title":"Frameworks, commitments and legal obligations, 2023–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"reading"},"title":"Founding and early leadership","claimIds":[]}]},"version":"1e2h0wj"}