{"index":{"byClaim":[["pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025",["predictions:predictions-on-record"]]],"marks":[],"chronicle":{"years":[{"year":1637,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1843,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1863,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1865,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1872,"topics":{"ideas":12},"stated":0},{"year":1923,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1943,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1947,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1948,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1949,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1950,"topics":{"ideas":13},"stated":0},{"year":1951,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1952,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1955,"topics":{"ideas":32},"stated":0},{"year":1956,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1957,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1958,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1959,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1960,"topics":{"ideas":12},"stated":0},{"year":1961,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1965,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1966,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1968,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1969,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1971,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1972,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1973,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1974,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1975,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1976,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1977,"topics":{"people":2,"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1979,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1980,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1981,"topics":{"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":1982,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1983,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1984,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1985,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1986,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1987,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1988,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1989,"topics":{"ideas":26},"stated":0},{"year":1990,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1991,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1992,"topics":{"ideas":15},"stated":0},{"year":1993,"topics":{"ideas":27,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":1994,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1995,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":1996,"topics":{"ideas":83},"stated":0},{"year":1997,"topics":{"ideas":19},"stated":0},{"year":1998,"topics":{"ideas":56},"stated":0},{"year":1999,"topics":{"ideas":33,"people":1,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2000,"topics":{"ideas":77},"stated":0},{"year":2001,"topics":{"ideas":55},"stated":0},{"year":2002,"topics":{"ideas":32},"stated":0},{"year":2003,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":2004,"topics":{"ideas":14,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":2005,"topics":{"ideas":20,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2006,"topics":{"ideas":26,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2007,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":2008,"topics":{"ideas":67,"people":3,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2009,"topics":{"ideas":13,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2010,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":14,"institutions":1,"governance":4},"stated":0},{"year":2011,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":20,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2012,"topics":{"people":4,"ideas":20,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2013,"topics":{"ideas":47,"people":4,"institutions":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2014,"topics":{"institutions":2,"ideas":62,"people":5},"stated":0},{"year":2015,"topics":{"people":23,"ideas":133,"institutions":3,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2016,"topics":{"ideas":88,"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":2017,"topics":{"people":16,"institutions":2,"ideas":133,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2018,"topics":{"people":9,"ideas":163,"institutions":8,"governance":1},"stated":0},{"year":2019,"topics":{"capital":1,"compute":1,"people":11,"governance":19,"ideas":176,"institutions":4},"stated":0},{"year":2020,"topics":{"people":6,"ideas":98,"institutions":1,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2021,"topics":{"people":27,"ideas":178,"compute":1,"institutions":23,"governance":4,"capital":6},"stated":0},{"year":2022,"topics":{"people":15,"ideas":233,"institutions":6,"governance":3,"compute":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2023,"topics":{"capital":14,"compute":7,"institutions":25,"people":55,"governance":239,"ideas":414},"stated":0},{"year":2024,"topics":{"capital":31,"compute":19,"governance":367,"people":103,"ideas":185,"institutions":32},"stated":1},{"year":2025,"topics":{"governance":795,"compute":69,"capital":61,"people":145,"institutions":26,"ideas":191},"stated":7},{"year":2026,"topics":{"governance":619,"capital":30,"compute":32,"institutions":23,"ideas":99,"people":139},"stated":19},{"year":2027,"topics":{},"stated":8},{"year":2028,"topics":{},"stated":6},{"year":2029,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2030,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2032,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2035,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2039,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2042,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2050,"topics":{},"stated":1}],"scheduled":[],"statedBy":[]},"collections":[{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"antecedent-texts"},"title":"Antecedent texts: machine intelligence before 1965","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"superintelligence"},"title":"Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2025","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"risk-debate"},"title":"Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI, 1863–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"yudkowsky-arguments"},"title":"Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"machine-succession"},"title":"Machine succession, scale and acceleration: propositions in located texts, 1863–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"economics-of-machine-intelligence"},"title":"Economics of machine intelligence: texts from 1952 to 2026 that state, contest or bear on its propositions","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"orbital-compute-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about compute in orbit","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-bio-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about AI and biological risk","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-in-science"},"title":"AI in science","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"documents"},"title":"Frontier safety frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"compare","id":"frontier-safety-frameworks"},"title":"Compare frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"openai"},"title":"OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"anthropic"},"title":"Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"commitments"},"title":"External commitments and obligations","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"question","id":"frameworks-to-obligations"},"title":"Frameworks, commitments and legal obligations, 2023–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"reading"},"title":"Founding and early leadership","claimIds":[]}]},"version":"lq5ag3","build":"index-BTwlRauQ.js","packed":1,"at":{"entities":[2200],"claims":[6657],"sources":[2085],"evidence":[9054,1,1]},"records":{"entities":{"n":1,"fields":{"id":["legg-2009-tick-tock-bing"],"name":["Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING"],"type":["document"],"subtype":["Blog post"],"description":["Shane Legg’s post of 7 December 2009 on his blog, vetta.org."],"sourceIds":[["source-pr-legg-2009-tick-tock"]]}},"claims":{"n":1,"fields":{"id":["pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025"],"subject":["legg-2009-tick-tock-bing"],"predicate":["states_prediction"],"object":[{"kind":"literal","value":"roughly human level AGI"}],"topic":["ideas"],"statement":["“Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING” (2009-12-07) states a prediction by Shane Legg: roughly human level AGI (paraphrased); horizon as stated: mode \"about 2025\"; expected value \"a bit higher at 2028\"; 90% credibility region \"2018 to 2036\". The record says nothing about whether the event happened."],"time":[{"kind":"event","date":"2009-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the post. Post date as read by a reviewer from a different model family in a capture of 2009-12-13."}],"derivation":["explicit"],"resolution":["supported"],"editorialState":["seed"],"evidenceIds":[["evidence-pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025-1","evidence-pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025-2","evidence-pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025-3"]],"attributes":[{"prediction":{"form":"stated-forecast","predictor":{"kind":"person","label":"Shane Legg","entityIds":["shane-legg"]},"event":{"type":"paraphrase","text":"roughly human level AGI","note":"The distribution's subject, named in the paragraph's first sentence: \"my prediction for the last 10 years has been for roughly human level AGI in the year 2025\"; the post goes on: \"This year I've tried to come up with something a bit more precise.\""},"horizon":{"asStated":"mode \"about 2025\"; expected value \"a bit higher at 2028\"; 90% credibility region \"2018 to 2036\"","words":"my mode is about 2025, my expected value is actually a bit higher at 2028","kind":"quantile","years":[2025,2028,2018,2036],"precision":"year"},"probability":{"asStated":"mode; expected value; \"90% credibility region\"","words":"90% credibility region"},"points":[{"probability":"mode","horizon":"about 2025"},{"probability":"expected value","horizon":"a bit higher at 2028"},{"probability":"90% credibility region","horizon":"2018 to 2036"}],"attested":{"date":"2009-12-13","note":"Internet Archive capture 20091213040508, read by a reviewer from a different model family."}}}]}},"sources":{"n":1,"fields":{"id":["source-pr-legg-2009-tick-tock"],"documentId":["legg-2009-tick-tock-bing"],"title":["Tick, tock, tick, tock… BING"],"authors":[["Shane Legg"]],"publisher":["vetta.org (author’s blog)"],"publicationDate":["2009-12-07"],"version":["Internet Archive capture 20091213040508, read by a reviewer from a different model family; vetta.org returns HTTP 403 and web.archive.org did not answer the preparing assistant. Post date \"December 7th, 2009\" as read by a reviewer from a different model family in a capture of 2009-12-13."],"evidenceUrl":["https://web.archive.org/web/20091213040508/http://www.vetta.org:80/2009/12/tick-tock-tick-tock-bing/"],"language":["en"],"archivedUrl":["https://web.archive.org/web/20091213040508/http://www.vetta.org:80/2009/12/tick-tock-tick-tock-bing/"],"archivedAt":["2009-12-13"],"accessedAt":["2026-11-05"]}},"evidence":{"n":3,"fields":{"id":["evidence-pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025-1","evidence-pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025-2","evidence-pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025-3"],"claimId":["pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025","pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025","pr-e-legg-2009-mode-2025"],"sourceId":["source-pr-legg-2009-tick-tock","source-pr-legg-2009-tick-tock","source-pr-legg-2009-tick-tock"],"sourceRole":["primary"],"support":["supports","supports","supports"],"verification":["machine_checked","machine_checked","machine_checked"]},"held":{"sourceRole":[0]}}}}