{"entities":[{"id":"fast-or-hard-takeoff","name":"Fast or hard takeoff","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"A4","criterion":"The transition from roughly human-level to far superhuman capability happens over a short period (hours to months), or is named as a “hard” or “fast” takeoff, as opposed to a gradual transition over years or decades. A transition described only as rapid, or rapid relative to biological or historical change, without such a period, does not meet the criterion.","terms":["hard takeoff","fast takeoff"]}},{"id":"gradual-takeoff","name":"Takeoff will be gradual","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"R16","criterion":"The transition to highly capable AI will be gradual and continuous, over years or longer, with each system only somewhat more capable than its predecessors, rather than a sudden jump.","terms":["slow takeoff","gradual","continuous takeoff","normal technology"]}},{"id":"incentives-produce-safety","name":"Economic incentives will produce safety","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"R17","criterion":"Developers' commercial or economic incentives, such as the need to sell useful and reliable products and to avoid liability or reputational harm, will lead them to make AI systems safe without special measures against catastrophic risk.","terms":["incentives","market","liability"]}},{"id":"loss-of-control-route","name":"Existential risk from misalignment or loss of control","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"R08","criterion":"Advanced AI systems pursuing goals at odds with human interests could escape human control and cause human extinction or permanent human disempowerment, without any person intending that outcome.","terms":["loss of control","rogue AI","misaligned AI","disempowerment"]}},{"id":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","name":"AI as Normal Technology","type":"document","subtype":"Essay","description":"An essay by Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor, Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, dated 15 April 2025. Date printed under the byline.","sourceIds":["source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology"]}],"claims":[{"id":"rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's essay of April 2025 states that the authors reject 'fast takeoff' scenarios and holds that a gradual increase in automation of AI development is more likely than a discontinuous moment of recursive self-improvement.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-15","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","evidence-rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that recursive self-improvement would arrive as a discontinuous moment, given that AI development already relies on AI."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The essay by Narayanan and Kapoor of 15 April 2025 argues that AI can remain under human control without drastic interventions and that catastrophic misalignment is by far the most speculative of the risks it discusses.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-15","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","evidence-rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that capability gains must translate into power that escapes control, placing the intervention at limiting power rather than at alignment."}}}},{"id":"rd-r16-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"gradual-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's essay of April 2025 states that a continued gradual increase in the role of automation in AI development is more likely than a singular, discontinuous moment when recursive self-improvement is achieved, and that speed limits apply at each stage from invention to diffusion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-15","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r16-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's essay of April 2025 argues that how well developers and deployers mitigate AI accidents depends on their incentives, that in many cases market forces will provide an adequate incentive with safety regulation filling the gaps, and that poorly controlled AI will be too error-prone to make business sense.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-15","basis":"publication","note":"Day not confirmed from the retrieved text."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","evidence-rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-2","evidence-rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}}],"sources":[{"id":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","documentId":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","title":"AI as Normal Technology","authors":["Arvind Narayanan","Sayash Kapoor"],"publisher":"Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University (knightcolumbia.org)","publicationDate":"2025-04-15","version":"Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 6122c2bd36f2b2e229e352c82f61ae0d93625a77888af892d9409d91b9ad1a16). Current web essay dated April 15, 2025. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31, with the same bytes.","evidenceUrl":"https://knightcolumbia.org/content/ai-as-normal-technology","language":"en"}],"evidence":[{"id":"evidence-rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","claimId":"rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-2","claimId":"rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","claimId":"rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-2","claimId":"rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r16-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","claimId":"rd-r16-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","claimId":"rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-2","claimId":"rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-3","claimId":"rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","sourceId":"source-rd-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"}],"at":{"entities":[339,1834,1850,1865,1887],"claims":[5178,5217,5316,5325],"sources":[1786],"evidence":[6889,6890,6961,6962,7142,7157,7158,7159]},"index":{"byClaim":[["rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology",["propositions:superintelligence","propositions:risk-debate"]],["rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology",["propositions:risk-debate"]],["rd-r16-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology",["propositions:risk-debate"]],["rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology",["propositions:risk-debate"]]],"marks":[],"chronicle":{"years":[{"year":1863,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1865,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1872,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1943,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1947,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1950,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1951,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1952,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1955,"topics":{"ideas":31},"stated":0},{"year":1956,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1957,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1958,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1959,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1960,"topics":{"ideas":11},"stated":0},{"year":1961,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1965,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1966,"topics":{"ideas":20},"stated":0},{"year":1968,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1969,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1971,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1972,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1973,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1974,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1975,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1976,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1977,"topics":{"people":2,"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1979,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1980,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1981,"topics":{"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":1982,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1983,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1984,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1985,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1986,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1987,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1988,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1989,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1990,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1991,"topics":{"ideas":11},"stated":0},{"year":1992,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1993,"topics":{"ideas":14,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":1994,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1995,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":1996,"topics":{"ideas":71},"stated":0},{"year":1997,"topics":{"ideas":12},"stated":0},{"year":1998,"topics":{"ideas":49},"stated":0},{"year":1999,"topics":{"ideas":27,"people":1,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2000,"topics":{"ideas":62},"stated":0},{"year":2001,"topics":{"ideas":39},"stated":0},{"year":2002,"topics":{"ideas":30},"stated":0},{"year":2003,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":2004,"topics":{"ideas":12,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":2005,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2006,"topics":{"ideas":26,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2007,"topics":{"ideas":20},"stated":0},{"year":2008,"topics":{"ideas":57,"people":3,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2009,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2010,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":11,"institutions":1,"governance":4},"stated":0},{"year":2011,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":7,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2012,"topics":{"people":4,"ideas":17,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2013,"topics":{"ideas":46,"people":4,"institutions":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2014,"topics":{"institutions":2,"ideas":54,"people":5},"stated":0},{"year":2015,"topics":{"people":22,"ideas":122,"institutions":3,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2016,"topics":{"ideas":88,"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":2017,"topics":{"people":16,"institutions":2,"ideas":128,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2018,"topics":{"people":8,"ideas":158,"institutions":8,"governance":1},"stated":0},{"year":2019,"topics":{"capital":1,"compute":1,"people":10,"governance":19,"ideas":175,"institutions":4},"stated":0},{"year":2020,"topics":{"people":6,"ideas":98,"institutions":1,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2021,"topics":{"people":27,"ideas":177,"compute":1,"institutions":23,"governance":4,"capital":6},"stated":0},{"year":2022,"topics":{"people":15,"ideas":217,"institutions":6,"governance":3,"compute":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2023,"topics":{"capital":5,"compute":7,"institutions":23,"people":51,"governance":179,"ideas":389},"stated":0},{"year":2024,"topics":{"capital":12,"compute":19,"governance":282,"people":80,"ideas":178,"institutions":28},"stated":1},{"year":2025,"topics":{"governance":547,"compute":69,"capital":34,"people":90,"institutions":18,"ideas":178},"stated":7},{"year":2026,"topics":{"governance":442,"capital":8,"compute":32,"institutions":21,"ideas":91,"people":107},"stated":19},{"year":2027,"topics":{},"stated":9},{"year":2028,"topics":{},"stated":6},{"year":2029,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2030,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2032,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2035,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2039,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2042,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2050,"topics":{},"stated":1}],"scheduled":[],"statedBy":[]},"collections":[{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"superintelligence"},"title":"Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022","claimIds":["rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology"],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"risk-debate"},"title":"Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI","claimIds":["rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","rd-r16-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology"],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"yudkowsky-arguments"},"title":"Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"economics-of-machine-intelligence"},"title":"Economics of machine intelligence","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"orbital-compute-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about compute in orbit","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-bio-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about AI and biological risk","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-in-science"},"title":"AI in science","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"documents"},"title":"Frontier safety frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"compare","id":"frontier-safety-frameworks"},"title":"Compare frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"openai"},"title":"OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"anthropic"},"title":"Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"commitments"},"title":"External commitments and obligations","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"question","id":"frameworks-to-obligations"},"title":"Frameworks, commitments and legal obligations, 2023–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"reading"},"title":"Founding and early leadership","claimIds":[]}]},"version":"131evrz"}