{"entities":[{"id":"cosmic-expansion","name":"Machine intelligence spreads beyond Earth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W10","criterion":"Machine intelligence will or could spread from Earth into space and through the universe, or convert the matter of the cosmos into intelligence.","terms":[]}},{"id":"cosmic-process","name":"Machine intelligence as a physical or cosmic process","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W09","criterion":"The rise of machine intelligence is an expression of a physical, evolutionary or cosmological process larger than humanity (such as thermodynamics, the evolution of complexity or a cosmic destiny of intelligence).","terms":[]}},{"id":"machine-succession","name":"Machines succeed humans as the leading intelligence","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W01","criterion":"Machine intelligence will or could replace or succeed human beings as the dominant or leading form of intelligence on Earth, or as the principal agent of further development, whether or not humans survive.","terms":["genetic takeover","postbiological","post-biological","AI succession"]}},{"id":"rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","name":"Organic Intelligence Has No Long-Term Future","type":"document","subtype":"Essay","description":"An essay by Martin Rees, Edge, dated 2015. Edge page files the response under \"2015 : WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT MACHINES THAT THINK?\"; no day given.","sourceIds":["source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence"]},{"id":"vast-superiority","name":"Superiority by many orders of magnitude","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"W05","criterion":"Machine intelligence could come to exceed human intelligence or overall cognitive capacity not moderately but by many orders of magnitude (a factor stated as trillions, or comparable to the gap between humans and much simpler organisms or matter). Capacity here means intelligence or overall cognitive capacity, not a robot's sensorimotor or output capacity.","terms":[]}}],"claims":[{"id":"ht-w01-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","subject":"rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-succession"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Rees's Edge response of 2015 states that, in a long-term evolutionary perspective, humans will be “a transient and primitive precursor” of a machine-dominated culture extending into the far future and beyond the Earth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"Edge files the response under the 2015 Edge Question; no day is given on the page."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w01-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ht-w05-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","subject":"rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"vast-superiority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Rees's Edge response of 2015 states that non-biological \"brains\" may develop insights as far beyond human imaginings as string theory is for a mouse, and that the development of silicon-based computers could be as dramatic as the evolution from single-celled organisms to humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"Edge files the response under the 2015 Edge Question; no day is given on the page."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w05-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-1","evidence-ht-w05-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","subject":"rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"cosmic-process"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Rees's Edge response of 2015 places the rise of machine intelligence in a long-term evolutionary perspective, as a stage after organic intelligence, and suggests that aliens on older worlds have likely already passed beyond the organic stage.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"Edge files the response under the 2015 Edge Question; no day is given on the page."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-1","evidence-ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-2","evidence-ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ht-w10-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","subject":"rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"cosmic-expansion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Rees's Edge response of 2015 states that a machine-dominated culture will spread far beyond the Earth, and that interplanetary and interstellar space will be the preferred arena for advanced AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"Edge files the response under the 2015 Edge Question; no day is given on the page."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ht-w10-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-1","evidence-ht-w10-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}}],"sources":[{"id":"source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence","documentId":"rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","title":"Organic Intelligence Has No Long-Term Future","authors":["Martin Rees"],"publisher":"Edge (edge.org), response to the 2015 Edge Question \"What do you think about machines that think?\"","publicationDate":"2015","version":"Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-31 (SHA-256 26dfac49b3f77165baa935db5c6285aac74a6980e0115285c52c103257cf6f13). Current Edge response page (response-detail/26160) under \"2015 : WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT MACHINES THAT THINK?\".","evidenceUrl":"https://www.edge.org/response-detail/26160","language":"en"}],"evidence":[{"id":"evidence-ht-w01-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-1","claimId":"ht-w01-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","sourceId":"source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w05-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-1","claimId":"ht-w05-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","sourceId":"source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w05-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-2","claimId":"ht-w05-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","sourceId":"source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-1","claimId":"ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","sourceId":"source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-2","claimId":"ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","sourceId":"source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-3","claimId":"ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","sourceId":"source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w10-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-1","claimId":"ht-w10-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","sourceId":"source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence","sourceRole":"primary","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"},{"id":"evidence-ht-w10-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future-2","claimId":"ht-w10-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","sourceId":"source-ht-rees-2015-organic-intelligence","support":"supports","verification":"machine_checked","retrievalRoute":"direct"}],"at":{"entities":[1938,1939,1966,1986,1995],"claims":[5374,5444,5488,5500],"sources":[1873],"evidence":[7225,7353,7354,7434,7435,7436,7455,7456]},"index":{"byClaim":[["ht-w01-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future",["propositions:machine-succession"]],["ht-w05-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future",["propositions:machine-succession"]],["ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future",["propositions:machine-succession"]],["ht-w10-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future",["propositions:machine-succession"]]],"marks":[],"chronicle":{"years":[{"year":1863,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1865,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1872,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1943,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1947,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1950,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1951,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1952,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1955,"topics":{"ideas":31},"stated":0},{"year":1956,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1957,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1958,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1959,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1960,"topics":{"ideas":11},"stated":0},{"year":1961,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1965,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1966,"topics":{"ideas":20},"stated":0},{"year":1968,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1969,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1971,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1972,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1973,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1974,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1975,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1976,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1977,"topics":{"people":2,"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1979,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1980,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1981,"topics":{"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":1982,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1983,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1984,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1985,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1986,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1987,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1988,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1989,"topics":{"ideas":25},"stated":0},{"year":1990,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1991,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1992,"topics":{"ideas":15},"stated":0},{"year":1993,"topics":{"ideas":21,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":1994,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1995,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":1996,"topics":{"ideas":71},"stated":0},{"year":1997,"topics":{"ideas":17},"stated":0},{"year":1998,"topics":{"ideas":50},"stated":0},{"year":1999,"topics":{"ideas":31,"people":1,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2000,"topics":{"ideas":70},"stated":0},{"year":2001,"topics":{"ideas":52},"stated":0},{"year":2002,"topics":{"ideas":30},"stated":0},{"year":2003,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":2004,"topics":{"ideas":14,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":2005,"topics":{"ideas":20,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2006,"topics":{"ideas":26,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2007,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":2008,"topics":{"ideas":59,"people":3,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2009,"topics":{"ideas":12,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2010,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":13,"institutions":1,"governance":4},"stated":0},{"year":2011,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":15,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2012,"topics":{"people":4,"ideas":19,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2013,"topics":{"ideas":52,"people":4,"institutions":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2014,"topics":{"institutions":2,"ideas":57,"people":5},"stated":0},{"year":2015,"topics":{"people":23,"ideas":133,"institutions":3,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2016,"topics":{"ideas":88,"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":2017,"topics":{"people":16,"institutions":2,"ideas":130,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2018,"topics":{"people":9,"ideas":159,"institutions":8,"governance":1},"stated":0},{"year":2019,"topics":{"capital":1,"compute":1,"people":11,"governance":19,"ideas":175,"institutions":4},"stated":0},{"year":2020,"topics":{"people":6,"ideas":98,"institutions":1,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2021,"topics":{"people":27,"ideas":177,"compute":1,"institutions":23,"governance":4,"capital":6},"stated":0},{"year":2022,"topics":{"people":15,"ideas":228,"institutions":6,"governance":3,"compute":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2023,"topics":{"capital":14,"compute":7,"institutions":24,"people":54,"governance":179,"ideas":409},"stated":0},{"year":2024,"topics":{"capital":31,"compute":19,"governance":282,"people":103,"ideas":180,"institutions":32},"stated":1},{"year":2025,"topics":{"governance":548,"compute":69,"capital":61,"people":145,"institutions":26,"ideas":180},"stated":7},{"year":2026,"topics":{"governance":444,"capital":31,"compute":32,"institutions":23,"ideas":97,"people":139},"stated":19},{"year":2027,"topics":{},"stated":8},{"year":2028,"topics":{},"stated":6},{"year":2029,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2030,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2032,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2035,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2039,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2042,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2050,"topics":{},"stated":1}],"scheduled":[],"statedBy":[]},"collections":[{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"superintelligence"},"title":"Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"risk-debate"},"title":"Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"yudkowsky-arguments"},"title":"Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"machine-succession"},"title":"Machine succession, scale and acceleration: propositions in located texts, 1979–2026","claimIds":["ht-w01-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","ht-w05-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","ht-w09-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future","ht-w10-rees-2015-organic-intelligence-no-long-term-future"],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"economics-of-machine-intelligence"},"title":"Economics of machine intelligence","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"orbital-compute-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about compute in orbit","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-bio-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about AI and biological risk","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-in-science"},"title":"AI in science","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"documents"},"title":"Frontier safety frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"compare","id":"frontier-safety-frameworks"},"title":"Compare frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"openai"},"title":"OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"anthropic"},"title":"Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"commitments"},"title":"External commitments and obligations","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"question","id":"frameworks-to-obligations"},"title":"Frameworks, commitments and legal obligations, 2023–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"reading"},"title":"Founding and early leadership","claimIds":[]}]},"version":"1e2h0wj"}