{"entities":[{"id":"iem-2013","name":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics"},{"id":"good-1965","name":"Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine"},{"id":"butler-1863-darwin-among-machines","name":"Darwin among the Machines"},{"id":"butler-1865-lucubratio-ebria","name":"Lucubratio Ebria"},{"id":"erewhon-1872","name":"Erewhon, or Over the Range"},{"id":"turing-1947-lms-lecture","name":"Lecture to the London Mathematical Society"},{"id":"turing-1950-computing-machinery","name":"Computing Machinery and Intelligence"},{"id":"turing-c1951-heretical-theory","name":"Intelligent Machinery, a Heretical Theory"},{"id":"turing-1951-can-digital-computers-think","name":"Can Digital Computers Think?"},{"id":"dartmouth-proposal-1955","name":"A Proposal for the Dartmouth Summer Research Project on Artificial Intelligence"},{"id":"wiener-1960-some-moral-technical","name":"Some Moral and Technical Consequences of Automation"},{"id":"samuel-1960-refutation","name":"Some Moral and 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AI"},{"id":"extropians-1997-09-24-yudkowsky","name":"Singularity: Generation gap"},{"id":"extropians-1998-06-23-den-otter","name":"The AI revolution (Was: Re: >H ART: The Truman Show)"},{"id":"extropians-1998-06-23-sandberg","name":"Re: The AI revolution (Was: Re: >H ART: The Truman Show)"},{"id":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","name":"Human AI to superhuman (Re: Max More)"},{"id":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2212","name":"SITE: Coding A Transhuman AI (temp)"},{"id":"coding-a-transhuman-ai","name":"Coding a Transhuman AI"},{"id":"extropians-1998-09-10-hanson","name":"Singularity: Human AI to superhuman"},{"id":"extropians-1998-09-16-vinge","name":"Singularity: Vinge responds"},{"id":"extropians-1998-09-24-hanson","name":"AI big wins (was: Punctuated Equilibrium Theory)"},{"id":"more-1998-singularity-meets-economy","name":"Singularity Meets Economy (Comments on Vinge’s Singularity)"},{"id":"extropians-1999-09-04-finney","name":"Mike Perry’s work on self-improving 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(Was: Congratulations to Eli,Brian ...)"},{"id":"extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6073","name":"Eugene's nuclear threat"},{"id":"extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6080","name":"Re: Eugene's nuclear threat"},{"id":"extropians-1997-09-25-yudkowsky-4400","name":"Re: Singularity: Generation gap"},{"id":"extropians-1997-09-26-yudkowsky-4420","name":"Re: Singularity: Generation gap"},{"id":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2171","name":"Singularity, Breaker of Dreams"},{"id":"extropians-1998-09-08-yudkowsky-2235","name":"Re: Human AI to superhuman (Re: Max More)"},{"id":"extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411","name":"Re: AI Prime Directive"},{"id":"extropians-1998-09-18-yudkowsky-2487","name":"Re: Singularity: The Moore's Law Argument"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386","name":"Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-03-yudkowsky-1487","name":"Re: IA vs. AI (vs. humanity)"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1587","name":"Re: Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1589","name":"Re: Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1591","name":"Re: Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783","name":"Re: SI Comparative Advantage [was Re: Free Will]"},{"id":"extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153","name":"Singularity: AI Morality"},{"id":"extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086","name":"Re: >H: The next 100 months"},{"id":"extropians-1996-11-13-yudkowsky-2941","name":"Re: Zones of Thought (was Zindell's _The Wild_)"},{"id":"extropians-1996-11-16-yudkowsky-3042","name":"Re: extropians-digest V1 #110"},{"id":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178","name":"Interim purpose"},{"id":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3184","name":"Re: Survival ethic (U-Prime)"},{"id":"extropians-1996-12-08-yudkowsky-3761","name":"Re: Trans- vs. Non-human"},{"id":"lw-2007-the-hidden-complexity-of-wishes","name":"The Hidden Complexity of Wishes"},{"id":"lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction","name":"Only Law Can Prevent Extinction"},{"id":"lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty","name":"Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty"},{"id":"lw-2008-above-average-ai-scientists","name":"Above-Average AI Scientists"},{"id":"lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial","name":"There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence"},{"id":"lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi","name":"Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions"},{"id":"lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences","name":"The Sun is big, but superintelligences will not spare Earth a little sunlight"},{"id":"lw-2009-value-is-fragile","name":"Value is Fragile"},{"id":"lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they","name":"After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you"},{"id":"lw-2008-fighting-a-rearguard-action-against-the","name":"Fighting a Rearguard Action Against the Truth"},{"id":"lw-2008-magical-categories","name":"Magical Categories"},{"id":"lw-2008-no-universally-compelling-arguments","name":"No Universally Compelling Arguments"},{"id":"lw-2018-challenges-to-christianos-capability-amplification-proposal","name":"Challenges to Christiano’s capability amplification proposal"},{"id":"lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord","name":"That Tiny Note of Discord"},{"id":"lw-2026-cat-belling-problems","name":"Cat-Belling Problems"},{"id":"lw-2021-biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick","name":"Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works"},{"id":"lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the","name":"The Talker Does Not Control The Doer (in Current AIs)"},{"id":"lw-2007-thou-art-godshatter","name":"Thou Art Godshatter"},{"id":"lw-2008-ghosts-in-the-machine","name":"Ghosts in the Machine"},{"id":"lw-2008-the-magnitude-of-his-own-folly","name":"The Magnitude of His Own Folly"},{"id":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","name":"Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI"},{"id":"lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity","name":"MIRI announces new \"Death With Dignity\" strategy"},{"id":"lw-2022-six-dimensions-of-operational-adequacy-in","name":"Six Dimensions of Operational Adequacy in AGI Projects"},{"id":"lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators","name":"GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators"},{"id":"lw-2025-re-recent-anthropic-safety-research","name":"Re: recent Anthropic safety research"},{"id":"lw-2007-the-logical-fallacy-of-generalization-from","name":"The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence"},{"id":"lw-2023-alexander-and-yudkowsky-on-agi-goals","name":"Alexander and Yudkowsky on AGI goals"},{"id":"lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai","name":"Reply to Holden on 'Tool AI'"},{"id":"lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement","name":"The Rhythm of Disagreement"},{"id":"lw-2022-shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures","name":"Shah and Yudkowsky on alignment failures"},{"id":"lw-2021-yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds","name":"Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss \"Takeoff Speeds\""},{"id":"lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness","name":"Dreams of Friendliness"},{"id":"lw-2008-what-i-think-if-not-why","name":"What I Think, If Not Why"},{"id":"sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017","name":"Re: [SL4] Programmed morality"},{"id":"sl4-2000-07-20-yudkowsky-0007-0023","name":"[SL4] AI flight recorder"},{"id":"sl4-2000-08-21-yudkowsky-0008-0046","name":"Re: [SL4] Employment vs. Singularity"},{"id":"sl4-2000-09-16-yudkowsky-0009-0086","name":"Re:"},{"id":"sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092","name":"Re: Get it right the first time (Was: )"},{"id":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","name":"Re: Ben what are your views and concerns"},{"id":"sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181","name":"Re: Ben's \"Extropian Creed\""},{"id":"sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240","name":"Re: Evolving minds"},{"id":"sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355","name":"Revising a Friendly AI"},{"id":"sl4-2000-12-12-yudkowsky-0012-0381","name":"Re: Revising a Friendly AI"},{"id":"sl4-2001-01-24-yudkowsky-0101-0452","name":"Re: Event horizon"},{"id":"sl4-2001-02-04-yudkowsky-0102-0539","name":"Re: Beyond evolution"},{"id":"sl4-2001-02-05-yudkowsky-0102-0542","name":"Re: Beyond evolution"},{"id":"sl4-2001-02-07-yudkowsky-0102-0545","name":"Re: Learning to be evil"},{"id":"sl4-2001-02-25-yudkowsky-0102-0594","name":"Re: Military in or out?"},{"id":"sl4-2001-02-26-yudkowsky-0102-0603","name":"Re: Military in or out?"},{"id":"sl4-2001-04-06-yudkowsky-0104-0956","name":"Re: Singularity intros (was: Si definition of Friendliess)"},{"id":"sl4-2001-04-08-yudkowsky-0104-1019","name":"Re: Threats (was Theoretical question for the list: publicity?)"},{"id":"sl4-2001-04-12-yudkowsky-0104-1076","name":"Re: Open Source Friendly AI? (was Singularity and the generalpublic)"},{"id":"sl4-2001-04-19-yudkowsky-0104-1166","name":"Re: FW: Group releases \"Friendly AI\""},{"id":"sl4-2001-08-01-yudkowsky-0108-2031","name":"Re: Floppy take-off"},{"id":"sl4-2002-03-09-yudkowsky-0203-3148","name":"Re: Novamente goal system"},{"id":"sl4-2002-03-10-yudkowsky-0203-3160","name":"Webmind Inc. as social process"},{"id":"sl4-2002-05-03-yudkowsky-0205-3551","name":"Re: supergoal stability"},{"id":"sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208","name":"Re: Threats to the Singularity."},{"id":"sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4219","name":"Re: Seed AI (was: How hard a Singularity?)"},{"id":"sl4-2002-06-27-yudkowsky-0206-4453","name":"Re: Military Friendly AI"},{"id":"sl4-2002-07-02-yudkowsky-0207-4667","name":"Re: Seed AI (was: How hard a Singularity?)"},{"id":"sl4-2002-09-10-yudkowsky-0209-5398","name":"Friendly AI communications issues (was: Consciousness)"},{"id":"sl4-2002-09-19-yudkowsky-0209-5571","name":"Re: QUES: CFAI [#2]"},{"id":"sl4-2003-05-22-yudkowsky-0305-6783","name":"Re: Flight recorders in AIs"},{"id":"sl4-2003-05-29-yudkowsky-0305-6846","name":"Re: SIAI's flawed friendliness analysis"},{"id":"sl4-2004-05-30-yudkowsky-0405-8843","name":"Re: One or more AIs??"},{"id":"sl4-2004-06-01-yudkowsky-0406-8905","name":"Re: FAI: Collective Volition"},{"id":"sl4-2004-12-29-yudkowsky-0412-10488","name":"Re: Conservative Estimation of the Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence"},{"id":"sl4-2005-01-02-yudkowsky-0501-10512","name":"Re: Definition of strong recursive self-improvement"},{"id":"sl4-2005-07-13-yudkowsky-0507-11477","name":"Re: Fighting UFAI"},{"id":"sl4-2005-07-13-yudkowsky-0507-11483","name":"Re: Fighting UFAI"},{"id":"sl4-2005-07-25-yudkowsky-0507-11765","name":"Re: 6 points about Coherent Extrapolated Volition"},{"id":"sl4-2005-08-09-yudkowsky-0508-11866","name":"Re: On Our Duty to Not Be Responsible for Artificial Minds"},{"id":"sl4-2006-02-15-yudkowsky-0602-14096","name":"Re: Singularity Institute: Likely to win the race to build GAI?"},{"id":"sl4-2006-06-06-yudkowsky-0606-15174","name":"Re: [agi] Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases"},{"id":"sl4-2006-06-13-yudkowsky-0606-15271","name":"Re: Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases"},{"id":"sl4-2007-11-24-yudkowsky-0711-17248","name":"Re: UCaRtMaAI paper"},{"id":"sl4-2008-02-11-yudkowsky-0802-17621","name":"Re: Investing in FAI research: now vs. later."},{"id":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","name":"Some Skepticism (comment in \"A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept\")"},{"id":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","name":"Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence"},{"id":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","name":"Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes"},{"id":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","name":"Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? 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the speed is only relative to the slow progress of animals and plants."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-butler-1863-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"satirical","missing":"Machinery \"employed in begetting machinery\" describes manufacture, not research or design."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-butler-1865-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"dream","qualifier":"Disputes the premise that machines are a separate kind of being that could triumph over people.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that machines are a separate kind of being that could escape and triumph over people: they are the means by which the human organism itself develops."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-erewhon-1872","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"fiction","qualifier":"Control half, voiced by a fictional treatise."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-erewhon-1872-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"fiction","qualifier":"Inside the novel: machines as extra-corporeal limbs, not rivals.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the treatise’s premise that machines form a rival kingdom beyond human control: they are part of man’s own physical nature, extra-corporeal limbs of a machinate mammal."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-erewhon-1872-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"fiction","missing":"No short transition is stated; the speed is relative to living species, and the same chapters speak of \"a hundred thousand years\" of progress."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-erewhon-1872-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"fiction","missing":"Competition punishes whoever neglects machinery, but no first developer gains a decisive advantage and no trade of safety is described."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-erewhon-1872-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"fiction","missing":"\"They serve that they may rule\" is figurative; the treatise says machines are of themselves unable to struggle and gives them no concealed intent."}}},{"id":"ts-b5-erewhon-1872-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"fiction","missing":"The argument concerns extrapolating capability from a low present level, not good behaviour observed while a system is overseen."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-turing-1947-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Self-altering instructions enable learning, but no starting architecture aimed at redesigning its own intelligence is specified."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-turing-1947-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No improvement of the capacity to improve is stated."}}},{"id":"ts-c2-turing-1950","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-c1-turing-1950-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The passage describes a strategy for passing the test; it makes no explicit claim about what test results show."}}},{"id":"ts-b3-turing-1950-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No learned, misaligned objective and no behaving as if aligned during training."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-turing-1950-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The child programme is educated and selected by an experimenter, and a self-programming machine is given no starting architecture for growth in intelligence."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-turing-1950-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Learning and self-programming are described, but not a machine improving its own capacity to improve."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-turing-1950-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The machine modifies its own programmes; research that advances AI or computing, and its acceleration, are not stated."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-turing-c1951","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Control half: machines eventually take control."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-turing-c1951-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Machines sharpen their wits by conversing with each other; no design or research feedback is stated."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-turing-c1951-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A short-sounding interval (\"would not take long\") is given, but no period of hours to months."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-turing-1951-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The script entertains keeping machines subservient by switching off the power, rather than asserting that control would fail."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-turing-1951-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Superior machine intelligence is contemplated without a transition period."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-dartmouth-1955-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A research problem is named, without a seed design or a path to greater intelligence."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-dartmouth-1955-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Self-improvement is proposed for study, but no improvement of the improvement process is described."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-wiener-1960","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Both halves: the purpose put into a fast machine must be the one intended, and timely intervention may be impossible.","claimed":{"date":"1959-12-27","note":"Printed p. 1355 says the article is adapted from a lecture at the AAAS meeting in Chicago on this day. The lecture text was not retrieved, so the wording is not dated to it."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-wiener-1960-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No explicit claim about what success in the war game shows; the passage concerns a mismatch between the game’s objective and the nation’s.","claimed":{"date":"1959-12-27","note":"Printed p. 1355 says the article is adapted from a lecture at the AAAS meeting in Chicago on this day. The lecture text was not retrieved, so the wording is not dated to it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-wiener-1960-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Successive levels of policy adjustment are discussed, not a machine recursively improving its own capacity to improve.","claimed":{"date":"1959-12-27","note":"Printed p. 1355 says the article is adapted from a lecture at the AAAS meeting in Chicago on this day. The lecture text was not retrieved, so the wording is not dated to it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-wiener-1960-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Game-playing machines improve their policies; research that advances AI, and its acceleration, are not stated.","claimed":{"date":"1959-12-27","note":"Printed p. 1355 says the article is adapted from a lecture at the AAAS meeting in Chicago on this day. The lecture text was not retrieved, so the wording is not dated to it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-wiener-1960-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The speed discussed is of machine operation and decision, not a rapid transition in intelligence.","claimed":{"date":"1959-12-27","note":"Printed p. 1355 says the article is adapted from a lecture at the AAAS meeting in Chicago on this day. The lecture text was not retrieved, so the wording is not dated to it."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-samuel-1960-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"The abstract disputes the threat and will premise of the control half.","attested":{"note":"The abstract as indexed by PubMed, retrieved 2026-10-06. The printed pages were not retrieved, and who wrote the abstract is not established."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that the machine could escape human control: it has no will of its own and its conclusions only follow from its input."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-minsky-1961-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Learning and planning improve problem solving; a recursively accelerating redesign of the learner is not asserted.","claimed":{"date":"1960-10-24","note":"Receipt date given in the transcription; the submitted version was not retrieved."},"attested":{"note":"Later MIT-hosted HTML transcription, retrieved 2026-10-06; not compared with the journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-minsky-1961-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The improvements concern problem-solving search in general, not research that advances machine intelligence.","claimed":{"date":"1960-10-24","note":"Receipt date given in the transcription; the submitted version was not retrieved."},"attested":{"note":"Later MIT-hosted HTML transcription, retrieved 2026-10-06; not compared with the journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-good-1965","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"intelligence explosion","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-good-1965","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-good-1965-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The ultraintelligent machine designs better successors, or alters itself by acquiring equipment; the chapter does not say that a machine improves its own capacity to improve.","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-a2-good-1965-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No deliberately engineered seed design is specified.","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-good-1965","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Control half, as a proviso.","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-c1-michie-1968","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1986","note":"Wording checked in the reprint, chapter 20 of On Machine Intelligence, 2nd edition (1986). The author says little was revised; the 1968 text was not compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-b3-michie-1968-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No misaligned learned objective and no strategic imitation of alignment during training.","attested":{"date":"1986","note":"Wording checked in the reprint, chapter 20 of On Machine Intelligence, 2nd edition (1986). The author says little was revised; the 1968 text was not compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-michie-1968-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes the servant-or-master framing.","attested":{"date":"1986","note":"Wording checked in the reprint, chapter 20 of On Machine Intelligence, 2nd edition (1986). The author says little was revised; the 1968 text was not compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States the contrary forecast that computers will be helpers in a division of labour in which people keep decisions of value, without giving a reason why people could not lose the power to direct or stop them."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-moravec-1979","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Research tools contributing to their own improvement.","claimed":{"date":"1976-07-21","note":"The text is dated July 21, 1976, and marked \"this version 1978\"; earlier versions were not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-07-10","note":"Author-hosted HTML; the earliest Internet Archive capture, of 2001-07-10, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the Analog pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-moravec-1979","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Compounding improvement through machine labour in research.","claimed":{"date":"1976-07-21","note":"The text is dated July 21, 1976, and marked \"this version 1978\"; earlier versions were not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-07-10","note":"Author-hosted HTML; the earliest Internet Archive capture, of 2001-07-10, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the Analog pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-moravec-1979","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Machines doing part of the research labour.","claimed":{"date":"1976-07-21","note":"The text is dated July 21, 1976, and marked \"this version 1978\"; earlier versions were not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-07-10","note":"Author-hosted HTML; the earliest Internet Archive capture, of 2001-07-10, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the Analog pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-vinge-1983-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Accelerating intelligence and successors are stated, but no feedback from machine design to still better design."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1983-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The first superhuman intelligence is projected 20–100 years away; the length of the transition after it is not given."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-vinge-1983-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Human leadership is predicted to end, without a claim that people could not direct, correct or stop the machines."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-solomonoff-1985","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A conditional model of a partly artificial research community.","attested":{"date":"2006-07-16","note":"The author’s later typesetting, with a later affiliation and contact details; a byte-identical copy at the author’s earlier address was captured on 2006-07-16. Not compared with the 1985 journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-solomonoff-1985","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2006-07-16","note":"The author’s later typesetting, with a later affiliation and contact details; a byte-identical copy at the author’s earlier address was captured on 2006-07-16. Not compared with the 1985 journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-solomonoff-1985-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The feedback runs through adding artificial computer scientists to a community and cheapening computation, not through one system improving its own capacity to improve.","attested":{"date":"2006-07-16","note":"The author’s later typesetting, with a later affiliation and contact details; a byte-identical copy at the author’s earlier address was captured on 2006-07-16. Not compared with the 1985 journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-solomonoff-1985-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The illustrative transitions take years or decades, not hours to months.","attested":{"date":"2006-07-16","note":"The author’s later typesetting, with a later affiliation and contact details; a byte-identical copy at the author’s earlier address was captured on 2006-07-16. Not compared with the 1985 journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-drexler-1986","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Through automated engineering and molecular manufacturing.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-drexler-1986","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-drexler-1986-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The faster engineering comes from new, assembler-built AI systems; the passage does not have one system improve its own capacity to improve.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-drexler-1986-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A great upward leap \"in a brief time\" is predicted, without a period for the transition.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b2-drexler-1986","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-c2-drexler-1986","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b3-drexler-1986-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No learned misaligned objective and no imitation of alignment during training.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b4-drexler-1986-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Plotting and scheming are named, but not faking alignment during training or evaluation.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-drexler-1986-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that trustworthy advanced systems are infeasible.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that capable AI systems cannot be kept reliable or trustworthy: redundancy and design diversity, and trustworthy systems helping to plan precautions for the rest."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-drexler-1986-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Reliability and internal checking are discussed; there is no claim that trustworthiness observed under evaluation is misleading evidence.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-moravec-1989","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1988-07","note":"The author’s file is dated July 1988."},"attested":{"date":"2001-03-06","note":"Author-hosted file; the earliest capture, of 2001-03-06, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-moravec-1989-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Increasingly rapid self-improvement is predicted, without a runaway design loop in this passage.","claimed":{"date":"1988-07","note":"The author’s file is dated July 1988."},"attested":{"date":"2001-03-06","note":"Author-hosted file; the earliest capture, of 2001-03-06, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-moravec-1989-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No improvement of the capacity to improve is stated in the opening paragraphs.","claimed":{"date":"1988-07","note":"The author’s file is dated July 1988."},"attested":{"date":"2001-03-06","note":"Author-hosted file; the earliest capture, of 2001-03-06, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-moravec-1989-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No transition period of hours to months.","claimed":{"date":"1988-07","note":"The author’s file is dated July 1988."},"attested":{"date":"2001-03-06","note":"Author-hosted file; the earliest capture, of 2001-03-06, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1990-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No transition period; the word \"singularitarian\" describes posthuman art, not a takeoff.","attested":{"note":"Later electronic edition of the issue, not a scan of the original; its date is unknown."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-extropy-1991-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Self-directed evolution accelerates broadly, without machine intelligence improving its own research capacity."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1991-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Enormous acceleration and a limit to foresight, without a transition period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1992-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Defines an advocate of the technological singularity; no transition period or AI mechanism."}}},{"id":"ts-c1-rosenfelder-1991","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-c2-rosenfelder-1991","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b3-rosenfelder-1991-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No learned system that fakes alignment during training for a separate goal."}}},{"id":"ts-c1-gudeman-1991","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-c1-rosenfelder-1992","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-c1-franzen-1992-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes the inference from a badly run test to the insufficiency of a competent one.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that the competition’s result shows behavioural tests to be misleading: a test conducted by people who do not know what they are doing is not the test."}}}},{"id":"ts-c1-mccullough-1992-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"The split among judges is offered as evidence that behavioural tests can still tell machines apart.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that the competition shows behavioural tests cannot tell machines from people: the judges who were not fooled show that the two could be distinguished."}}}},{"id":"ts-c1-mckinstry-1994-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Acknowledges that tests reward tricks, then proposes using a test system as a fitness function; it neither establishes nor rebuts the evidential point."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-mckinstry-1994-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"An evolutionary arrangement is proposed, without an initial AI improving its own design."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-mckinstry-1994-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Evolutionary selection and further interaction, not a system improving its own capacity to improve."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-vinge-1993","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-vinge-1993","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-vinge-1993-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Successively more intelligent entities are created; no system improves its own capacity to improve.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1993","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a6-vinge-1993","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Safety traded for capability under competition.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-c3-vinge-1993","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b2-vinge-1993","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-vinge-1993","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Control half: confinement and built-in rules fail.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-vinge-1993-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No explicit claim about what observed helpfulness shows; the passage argues that confinement is impractical.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-vinge-1993-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No switch from cooperative while weak to hostile once released is described.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b3-vinge-1993-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No trained, misaligned policy imitating alignment during training.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-eder-1994-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Population, educated researchers and technology reinforce each other, and computer capacity rises with hardware trends; no machine improves its own intelligence or design capacity.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-eder-1994-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A peak in the rate of progress and a forty-year arrival forecast, without a transition period after human-level AI.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-eder-1994-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Automating chip production lowers costs; manufacture is not AI research.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a6-hanson-1994","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Decisive-advantage branch, for the first uploads."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1994-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp upload transition is discussed, but no period of hours to months from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-hanson-1994-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Integration is proposed to reduce the risk of revolt; the article neither asserts that people could not direct, correct or stop machines nor denies that control could be lost."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-drexler-1995-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Computational and material tools accelerate each other; machine intelligence’s own design ability is not the driver."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-drexler-1995-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Better tools build better tools, without an intelligent system improving its own capacity."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-drexler-1995-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Computation and molecular machinery improve each other, without automating AI research."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-drexler-1995-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Technology races are named, without a decisive first-developer advantage or a trade of safety."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-miller-1995-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Closely clustered technological events and fast uploads, without a transition period from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-burkhead-1996","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","qualifier":"A relay of Good’s proposal, not the poster’s own claim."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-burkhead-1996","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","qualifier":"A relay of Good’s proposal."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-clemmensen-1996-08-30","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A positive feedback in the superintelligence’s drive to become more intelligent is asserted, but the message does not say that it improves its own capacity to improve."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The \"few days or weeks\" are for building tools once a superintelligence exists; no period is given for its rise from human level."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-31-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Self-augmentation from a human-computer base is stated, but not that each improvement increases the capacity for the next."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-03","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-03-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The period of weeks is for a malicious AI to destroy humanity; its rise in intelligence is called rapid but given no period."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-bostrom-1996-09-03","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b5-bostrom-1996-09-03-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Apparent decency in deployment is discussed, without a claim that behaviour observed during training, testing or confinement fails to carry over."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1996-09-03-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that any one AI would be far ahead of the rest.","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States the contrary expectation that no one AI will be far ahead of the others, without giving a reason against the premise that a single system could move quickly far beyond the rest."}}}},{"id":"ts-a6-hanson-1996-09-03-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that any one AI would be far ahead of the rest.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that one malicious AI would hold a decisive advantage: other AIs close to it in capability could police it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-bostrom-1996-09-04","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Presented as a supposition and attributed to Dan Clemmensen."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-bostrom-1996-09-04","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Presented as a supposition and attributed to Dan Clemmensen."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-bostrom-1996-09-04","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Presented as a supposition and attributed to Dan Clemmensen."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-bostrom-1996-09-04-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A rapid \"take off\" ends a contest before anyone notices, but no period and no \"hard\" or \"fast\" takeoff is named."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-bostrom-1996-09-04","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Advantage to the first builder."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-04","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-04","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-07","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-clemmensen-1996-09-07-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The concealment of a benign SI is stipulated as an arbitrary assumption of the scenario, not argued as its strategy."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-07-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The SI makes itself smarter, but the message does not say that each gain increases its capacity for the next."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-sits","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-sits","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Faster AI thought through AI-run research.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-sits-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The doubling intervals shrink from two years to weeks, but the whole rise from human equivalence takes years, and no period of hours to months is given for it.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Persuasive lying to gain release is stated, but not a later change of behaviour once the Power is free or strong."}}},{"id":"ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No later change of behaviour once released is described."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-crocker-1996-12-31-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Claims checkable against physical evidence limit deception.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that a confined system could deceive its keepers while appearing benign: what it says about physics and experiments can be checked against reality and replicated."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-crocker-1996-12-31-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Claims checkable against physical evidence limit deception.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that a confined system’s apparent trustworthiness is weak evidence: its claims can be checked against physical evidence and the keeper’s own senses."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-crocker-1996-12-31-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The exchange concerns persuasion to gain release, not a later change of behaviour."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1997-09-24-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Three years from human-equivalent AI to infinite speed, not hours to months; who does the research is not stated."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-denotter-1998","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Safety traded for competitive advantage."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-sandberg-1998-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Questions the decisive-advantage premise.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that a more intelligent AI would gain a decisive advantage: greater intelligence does not always outsmart lesser, as defeated generals show, a lone superintelligence may lose to many opponents, and risk-taking is itself subject to rational limits."}}}},{"id":"ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp snap upwards that passes human level rapidly, without a period of hours to months."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"seed AI","missing":"The message names the new page by its titles; it does not state the concept."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A title naming self-enhancing intelligences; the message describes no mechanism."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-catai","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-01-26","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the capture of 2001-01-26; earlier captures are redirects to uncaptured pages, and the \"temporary edition\" may have been revised."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-catai","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-01-26","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the capture of 2001-01-26; earlier captures are redirects to uncaptured pages, and the \"temporary edition\" may have been revised."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that AI progress comes in a few big insights that allow a sudden jump: progress depends on many small insights, and history shows sharp changes in growth rates, not in levels."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation","earliest-located-term"],"register":"relay","term":"hard takeoff"}}},{"id":"ts-a1-hanson-1998-09-24-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Contests the inference from feedback to a break with history.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that positive feedback and the ability to redesign AI architectures imply a runaway: both have existed for a long time without a break with history."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-hanson-1998-09-24-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It accepts that feedback and the ability to redesign AI architectures are long-standing and disputes only that they imply a break with history, which concerns speed (A1, A4) rather than self-improvement."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-more-1998-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Doubts an immediate explosion and a total transformation.","attested":{"date":"2000-08-17","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the earliest capture of the page, of 2000-08-17."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that human-level AI leads immediately to drastically superhuman intelligence: fast minds still need experiments and cooperation, and human-level cognitive scientists have not raised their own intelligence."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-more-1998-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Doubts an immediate move to drastically superintelligent thinkers.","attested":{"date":"2000-08-17","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the earliest capture of the page, of 2000-08-17."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that the move from human-level to drastically superhuman intelligence is short: fast minds still need experiments and the cooperation of slower minds, so the improvements may take years or decades."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-finney-1999-contests","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Self-improvement can stall at local optima.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that each self-improvement feeds the next: the program stalled at a local optimum, and each gain in capability made the program more complicated to improve."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-atkins-2000","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-yudkowsky-2000-09-28","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b3-yudkowsky-2000-09-28-context","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A goal system preserved by hidden resistance during development, not a trained or learned policy behaving as aligned during training."}}},{"id":"ts-b1-cfai","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"With a capability trigger: feign until superintelligence.","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate it."}}}},{"id":"ts-b2-cfai","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a2-cfai","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate 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it does not argue the point."}}},{"id":"yk-y26-extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4292-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that intelligence without physical actuators of its own is not dangerous."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that alignment can be learned by trial and error at the frontier."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-creating-friendly-ai-2001-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A conservative design assumption in a table, not a forecast about learning alignment by trial and error.","attested":{"date":"2001-06-26","note":"The quoted wording also appears in the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-26; the quotation itself is taken from MIRI’s later reprint."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-agi-ruin-2022-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that results from safe experiments on weaker systems will carry over to dangerous ones."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that results from safe experiments on weaker systems will carry over to dangerous ones."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that alignment can be learned by trial and error at the frontier."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-agi-ruin-2022-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that a credible safety plan exists, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a credible safety plan exists."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-lw-2022-six-dimensions-of-operational-adequacy-in-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2017-11","note":"Editor's note says the document was written in November 2017; 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it does not claim that the leading projects in general can handle safety."}}},{"id":"yk-y29-agi-ruin-2022-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-sl4-2001-02-04-yudkowsky-0102-0539-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-sl4-2001-02-05-yudkowsky-0102-0542-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-sl4-2004-05-30-yudkowsky-0405-8843-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-extropians-2000-03-16-yudkowsky-5105-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-staring-into-the-singularity-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It denies that hostile extinction is inevitable; it does not assert that the default outcome is good.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","retrospective":{"from":"1997","until":"1997","note":"Reports the belief of “Eliezer1997”."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-sl4-2001-02-07-yudkowsky-0102-0545-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-sl4-2004-06-01-yudkowsky-0406-8905-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Exogenous technology growth; computer prices halving every two years; machine labour instantly producible; diminishing returns to all inputs together; product shares chosen as \"conservative\" (labour 0.25, capital 0.5, computers 0.02)."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Two-input production with information capital and labour; constant elasticity of substitution above one; information capital improving rapidly."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"Full automation of goods production; ongoing technological progress."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"AI able to substitute for human labour on most or all tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Conditional on AI automating the vast majority of tasks; explosive growth defined as at least tenfold the past century's growth rate for a decade or more."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"A toy scenario in which AI robots can perfectly substitute for all human labour, so that labour can be accumulated through investment in robots."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that growth models remain reliable when extrapolated far beyond historical growth rates; the turn gives a reason (the reach of growth models beyond historical experience) against the premise of the model-based argument."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes temporary spurts of growth, not a sustained rise in the growth rate by an order of magnitude.","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States that the population of uploads grows faster than wealth; does not state that the growth rate of total output rises.","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. His later record as an economist does not count for this text."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"All tasks in idea production automated; returns to existing knowledge in idea production (φ) above zero."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Targets the premise that automated idea production keeps sufficient returns; with strongly diminishing returns to search, growth need not explode."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Rejects the premise that the task of self-improvement stays equally hard as intelligence rises; rejects the premise that higher intelligence or speed raises the growth rate rather than the level of output."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"AI substituting very effectively for human labour in both production and R&D."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"AI that substitutes for human workers and idea producers; a semi-endogenous growth model in which ideas are non-rival and output, population and ideas feed back on each other."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The feedback runs through learning by doing in production, not through machines doing research.","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the historical value of a parameter; it does not say whether AI researchers, whose number can grow, would produce accelerating growth.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-03-30","note":"Author’s dateline at the end of the page (\"March 30, 1998\"); it does not date the published wording."},"attested":{"date":"1999-01-28","note":"Wayback capture of the author-hosted page."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Journal article by an author with economist standing in 1998: the archived January 1999 homepage and vita show an economics address, economics teaching in 1995–96 and economics publications before 1998 (checked by the GPT review on 2026-10-15; web.archive.org was not reachable in the correction pass). The vita gives a 1997 PhD without naming the field, so \"economics PhD\" is not claimed."},"conditions":"The Conclusion opens: \"If we assume that the risk and time preferences of future investors will not vary much from those which evolution has given us\"."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"The sum-of-exponentials or CES-combined model of growth modes; parameters of a new transition similar to those of past transitions."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Uses the accelerating historical trend to bound expectations; does not infer a transition to much faster growth.","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the post."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (changed from 2). A long essay (not short-form commentary) presenting the author's own growth model, on a foundation's blog. The author has an established record as an economist: articles in economics journals such as The World Bank Economic Review (2007) and Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2015) (Crossref, searched 2026-10-11). No economics appointment is shown on the page. His linked technical paper (posted to SSRN, Crossref 2026) would also be tier 1; it was not retrieved and holds no record here."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Capture of the post with its comments; comments are absent from the 2022 page."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Comment on a blog post by an author not presented as an economist and with no established record as one."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Disputes that past accelerations are informative about an acceleration driven by intelligence; G03 does not require that mechanism, and the same turn grants that past acceleration \"is a good reason to think there is some chance it could happen again\".","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"(G04-a) Elasticity of substitution between information and other inputs or goods below one. (G04-b) Elasticity of substitution between information capital and labour below one."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"(G04-c) Tasks are complements (elasticity of substitution below one). (G04-d) CES production across tasks with elasticity of substitution below one."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"A model result under fixed product shares (Cobb-Douglas form); it does not argue against the premise that unautomated tasks are strong complements."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Product shares fixed; human-only jobs keep a share of 0.05 of output in the example."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that some essential task will remain unautomated, and adds that partial automation can raise growth temporarily."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that partial automation cannot produce explosive growth, by modelling a fast transition with complementary tasks; disputes the premise that regulation of AI training or deployment will keep tasks unautomated for long enough to hold growth down."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"The sentence opens \"even if the other arguments fail to go through and we cannot even attain AI that perfectly substitutes for humans across all tasks\". CES task model with complementary tasks; a fixed stock of inputs reallocated from automated to unautomated tasks; input to automated tasks approximated as infinite (very cheap, very large AI inputs), so finite AI input would reduce the effect; about 90% of tasks automated (f = 0.1 unautomated) within less than ten years; substitution parameter ρ = −2 between tasks, below the range of −1.2 to −0.14 the authors cite as plausible for capital and labour."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Every innovation task is required; innovation gets harder each year; displaced workers retrain onto the remaining tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a few unautomated tasks suffice to block explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Tasks are complements; \"digital workers\" on automated tasks scaled up at least tenfold; automation going \"from little to substantial\" over decades rather than about a century; substitution of AI for human labour not unusually hard. In the same turn Besiroglu says that with 25% of tasks unautomated output could still rise by one or two orders of magnitude."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"Some essential input subject to physical limits on productivity; tasks are complements."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says limits end super-exponential growth eventually; does not say they prevent explosive growth or end it quickly.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that physical resource needs bind, because inputs per unit of output can fall as fast as production rises."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that any one listed bottleneck is certain to bind, while granting \"some chance\" that one does."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons in the same turn against the premises that resource limits and experiment times bind."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that resource constraints bind soon enough to preclude explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(G06-a) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06. (G06-b) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06.","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Singularity defined in the paper as \"a time when the economic growth rate crosses 20% per year\"; tests on US data to about 2014."}}},{"id":"ec-g06-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. His later record as an economist does not count for this text."},"conditions":"Uploads can be copied fast and cheaply; values evolve under selection; copying is not forcibly prevented."}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Exogenous-growth model with machine labour substituting for human labour; falling computer prices."}}},{"id":"ec-g07-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Unskilled labour a perfect substitute for information capital; skilled labour highly but imperfectly substitutable."}}},{"id":"ec-g08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (MIT Economics, author-hosted PDF) writing for a core economics venue: prepared for Economic Policy; NBER Working Paper 32487; journal version in Economic Policy."},"conditions":"Task-based model; cost savings at the task level; existing estimates of exposure (about 4.6% of tasks affected within ten years) and of cost savings (15.4%)."}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Robin Hanson","value":"median prediction of a transition to an economic doubling time of one to two years","horizon":"around 2025 (measured from an undated file attested 2000)","definition":"doubling time of world product of one to two years","conditional":true,"conditions":"\"an empirical projection of historical trends in world economic growth\"; the author adds that it \"has large uncertainties\" and links 2025 to brain-equivalent computer hardware in the next sentence."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"\"if one takes seriously the model of economic growth as a series of exponential growth modes, and if relative change parameters of a new transition are likely to be similar to such parameters describing old transitions\".","estimates":[{"holder":"Robin Hanson","value":"\"hard to escape the conclusion that the world economy could see a very dramatic change\"","horizon":"within the next century (from December 2000)","definition":"a new growth mode with a doubling time of roughly two weeks or less","conditional":true,"conditions":"If the series-of-modes model is taken seriously and a new transition resembles past ones."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Capture of the post with its comments; comments are absent from the 2022 page."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Comment on a blog post by an author not presented as an economist and with no established record as one."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Holden Karnofsky","value":"\"little reason to 'rule out' explosive growth\"","horizon":"the coming decades (from June 2020)","definition":"not defined in the comment","conditional":false,"conditions":"Tentative agreement with Roodman's themes; the same comment says transformative AI \"could plausibly be developed in the next couple of decades\"."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined as >30% annual GWP growth; horizon 2100.","estimates":[{"holder":"Tom Davidson","value":"\"plausible but far from certain\"; >10% (Appendix G); \"as low as 15% or as high as 60%\" on different days","horizon":"by 2100 (from June 2021)","definition":"more than 30% annual growth of gross world product","conditional":false,"conditions":"Overall judgement across the report's models and objections."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined in the paper as annual real GWP exceeding 130% of its maximum value over all previous years (about ten times growth rates typical of today's frontier economies).","estimates":[{"holder":"Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu","value":"about even odds of widespread automation and subsequent explosive growth","horizon":"by the end of this century (from October 2023)","definition":"annual real gross world product exceeding 130% of its maximum over all previous years","conditional":false,"conditions":"The same paragraph says high confidence \"seems unwarranted\"."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"estimates":[{"holder":"William D. Nordhaus","value":"the economy \"might plausibly cross the Singularity\" in \"100 years or more\"","horizon":"100 years or more (from 2015)","definition":"economic growth rate crossing 20% per year","conditional":true,"conditions":"Simple extrapolation of the two of seven tests that are positive; no probability and no duration given."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the next ten years and current AI; does not assess explosive growth this century.","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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AI is not named in the quoted words (the paper applies it to AI, see M03-01).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Unmeasured intangible complementary investment; toy-economy illustration."}}},{"id":"ec-m03-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States a possible delay but does not call AI a general-purpose technology here; offered as one of three alternatives.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Calls AI the new GPT but does not state that measured productivity gains lag adoption.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No statement that measured productivity gains lag adoption.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"The GPT-plus-lag conjunction is attributed to chapter 1's authors; 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'chain or products' is as printed in the OCR."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Buckingham gives limited automatable coverage and creation of new jobs as reasons against permanent mass unemployment."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"The next sentence qualifies it: there is 'no automatic regulator in the economic system that guarantees full employment', and the gains need continued expansion. 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He says many remaining problems 'are very difficult' and calls himself a technological radical 'somewhat closer to the center' than Simon. (M05-06) Simon's view as characterised by Armer."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-armer-1966-computer-aspects-of-technological-change-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Armer argues that full employment can survive computer substitution while requiring economic and social adjustment."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (computer specialist, RAND Corporation)."},"conditions":"He acknowledges that computers and automation cause serious problems needing economic, social and political adjustment."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-levitan-1966-new-directions-in-aid-of-the-poor-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Levitan argues for unmet human-service and public-work demand against cybernation employment-obsolescence claims."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Economist author (Sar A. 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The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"The ellipsis omits 'technological change would in the near future not only cause increasing unemployment, but that'."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The Commission rejects imminent employment-obsolescence and provides evidence on technological continuity and demand later in the report; the Commission links total employment to demand and purchasing power rather than equating job elimination with elimination of work."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Main Commission report: tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (most members were not economists; the chair Bowen and Solow were). Was tier 1. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"(M05-11) Also dissents from 'the other extreme view of complacency'. The ellipsis omits '— or at least the United States —'. (M05-12) Followed by: 'It is the continuous obligation of economic policy to match increases in productive potential with increases in purchasing power and demand.'."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"An objection Nilsson relays (\"some might say\") before answering it, not his own claim.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."},"conditions":"Assumes AI becomes cheaper than human labour across activities and that demand is finite."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Agnostic on technological unemployment; says nothing of machines performing all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Scenarios are limited to computer-based automation and exclude other changes (agriculture, materials substitution) and 'any major break-throughs in computer technology'."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Bottleneck tasks (creative and social intelligence) are assumed to remain with labour; no claim about cost of machines in all tasks or in newly created tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-autor-2015-why-are-there-still-so-many-jobs-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States that workers retain a comparative advantage in some tasks without, in the abstract, analysing the premise that machines could become cheaper at all tasks."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"(M05-18) A capital share tending to one does not imply every present and future task is performed more cheaply by machines; the continuation explicitly retains well-paid workers. (M05-19) Raises the role of evolving (new) tasks but neither asserts nor rules out machines performing them more cheaply; treats it as an empirical question of substitutability. (M05-41) A relayed capability forecast by Simon (1965), not a claim about cost relative to labour; in the same passage Nordhaus reports that Simon expected only a \"continuing, but not greatly accelerated, rise in productivity\". (M05-42) A relayed productivity expectation; it does not address cost relative to labour in all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."},"conditions":"Elasticity of substitution between information capital and labour bounded above one; rapid capital-augmenting technical change."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2017-06","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the May 2016 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Full model with directed research toward automation versus new tasks; holds when the long-run rental rate of capital is very low relative to labour (in the formal results, a sufficiently low discount rate), giving a balanced growth path in which all tasks are produced with capital. Otherwise an interior, stable balanced growth path."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Assumes that newly created tasks are ones in which labour has a comparative advantage; the passage answers the redundancy concern rather than modelling machines performing new tasks.","attested":{"date":"2017-06","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the May 2016 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Model assumption: labour has comparative advantage in new, more complex tasks; employment and labour share stable if new-task creation continues."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Thought experiments: all tasks in goods production automated (AK growth) or in idea production automated (with φ > 0, a finite-time singularity). Automation is exogenous; the costs of machines versus labour are not modelled as a comparison of task-level prices."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Leaves open whether machines can perform all essential tasks; neither asserts nor denies the possibility.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Conditional: if some essential tasks remain non-automated, the labour-free singularities do not occur."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Machine labour modelled as a perfect substitute for human labour; the cost of producing machines falls over time. The passage summarises the authors' companion paper (Korinek and Stiglitz 2017)."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Assumes new tasks in which labour has comparative advantage; does not model machines performing new tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"New tasks are defined as ones where labour has comparative advantage relative to machines."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Identifies and questions the new-tasks assumption in existing models but does not itself model machines performing all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports what the author calls \"the consensual view\" and \"the prevailing view\" at the conference; the author does not adopt it.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Relies on the historical record of failed dismal prophecies; it does not address whether AI could perform newly created tasks more cheaply than labour."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."},"conditions":"Full model with endogenous capital accumulation and directed research toward automation and new tasks; full automation only if the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low. Otherwise a stable balanced growth path in which automation and new tasks go together."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The model keeps a non-automatable labour-only sector, so machines do not perform all tasks; new tasks are not modelled.","attested":{"date":"2018-10","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the February 2015 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Corn produced with capital and code; prayer produced with high- and low-tech labour only."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes current machine learning's scope; does not address whether machines could eventually perform all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Considers automation without new tasks, not machines also performing new tasks more cheaply; rejects near-term end of work.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M05-33) Recognises capital-advantaged new tasks but excludes them; does not consider machines performing all new tasks more cheaply. (M05-34) Addresses whether the end of work is imminent, not whether machines could eventually do all tasks including new ones.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Model assumes labour has comparative and absolute advantage in higher-indexed tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Raises machines surpassing human intelligence as a topic; does not state or model machines performing all tasks, including new ones, more cheaply than labour.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Asserts that new jobs for human skills arise in the long run without engaging the premise that machines could also perform those new tasks more cheaply."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-furman-2019-automation-future-past-c","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Relies on centuries of experience that new jobs appear, without engaging the premise that machines might perform newly created tasks more cheaply."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Imagines software generating new products and labour mattering little, but does not state machines perform all tasks more cheaply than labour.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M05-39) Acknowledges a transformative scenario as possible but does not state or model machines doing all tasks, including new ones, more cheaply. (M05-40) Presupposes that new tasks in which labour is productive can be created; does not consider machines outcompeting labour in them.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"(M06a-01) These are listed as direct effects. He goes on to argue that long-run mass unemployment is not to be feared (p. 35). (M06a-02) He says there have been no mass layoffs because automation has been slow enough for normal turnover to disguise displacement."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-diebold-1955-automation-condensation-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Witness who is not an economist: John Diebold, management consultant (president, John Diebold & Associates), author of the condensed book."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. 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It is a summary, and Bright's study (Part 3, p. 203) is not in the retrieved OCR.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Appendix volume of the same Commission, with a preface by the economist Garth L. Mangum. Economist-written appendices are tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12; each study is tiered by its own author (Mansfield, Newhouse tier 1; Lynn tier 2)."},"conditions":"Based on case studies of 'actual installations of automatic equipment'. The preface adds that Horowitz and Herrnstadt found 'no significant changes in skill requirements in general' between the 1949 and 1960 DOT editions."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Under Scenario S3, by 2000, as a share of labour requirements. Professionals rise to nearly 20 per cent."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."},"conditions":"Elasticity of substitution between machines and unskilled labour high relative to that between the intermediate and skilled labour."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."},"conditions":"Unskilled labour a perfect substitute for information capital; skilled labour highly but imperfectly substitutable."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2017-06","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the May 2016 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Static model, fixed capital, exogenous technology; new tasks have the opposite effects; in the dynamic model the labour share still falls with automation while long-run real wages rise."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A model in which the labour share stays substantial despite nearly complete automation; it does not state a fall for some workers, though the paper also notes a possible prolonged high-capital-share period.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Elasticity of substitution across tasks below one; automation exogenous; sufficient conditions for balanced growth with a constant capital share well below 100%."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Absence of redistribution or full insurance against innovation risk."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Countervailing productivity, capital-accumulation and deepening effects present; absent new labour-intensive tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AEA Papers and Proceedings (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task-based model; the abstract adds that automation \"can reduce the equilibrium wage (for realistic parameter values)\"."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."},"conditions":"Static version with fixed capital and exogenous technology; creation of new tasks has the opposite effects."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Conditional on AI being a new, efficient form of capital."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-10","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the February 2015 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Decline in the code depreciation rate in an OLG model with rival, excludable code (baseline case)."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."},"conditions":"Displacement effect, absent offsetting new tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Holding new-task creation fixed; 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propagation matrix from 1980–2016."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States a distributional condition (sharing through wages and prices) but proposes no redistribution, tax or compensating public policy.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. 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Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"(M06b-02) Argued against the 'comfortable formula' that falling prices automatically restore jobs. That formula presupposes perfect competition and labour mobility, which do not hold in an economy of large corporations, unions and administered prices. (M06b-04) He immediately adds that every money bill, tax revision and regulatory measure gives 'punchcard or tape instructions' to the economy, and that general public policy should be framed accordingly."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. 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(M09-29) Describes the evidence base as thin because of limited diffusion, not the field as recently engaged.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Describes economists' earlier views on technology and employment, not the recency of engagement with AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Neglect claim is confined to redistribution beyond the Paretian model, not economics of AI generally.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-calvano-et-al-2020-algorithmic-pricing-collusion-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A dated data point, not a statement about the field's recency.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-leontief-1952-machines-and-man-b","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Poses the question only; the article text, where Leontief answers it, was not retrieved.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Article by an economist in a magazine: tier 1 under the 2026-10-11 rule (D2 names this piece). 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(E01-02) Addresses a growth explosion from any single technology; no AI improving AI.","attested":{"date":"1999-01-28","note":"Wayback capture of the author-hosted page."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Journal article by an author with economist standing in 1998: the archived January 1999 homepage and vita show an economics address, economics teaching in 1995–96 and economics publications before 1998 (checked by the GPT review on 2026-10-15; web.archive.org was not reachable in the correction pass). 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