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The conditions under which the text derives this are part of the record.","terms":[]}},{"id":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research","name":"Automated research produces accelerating growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G02","criterion":"The text states that if machines substitute for, or improve, the producers of ideas (researchers, inventors, engineers), feedback from output to research effort makes growth accelerate: super-exponential growth, growth rates rising without bound, or a finite-time singularity. The conditions under which the text derives this are part of the record.","terms":[]}},{"id":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration","name":"Long-run history suggests a further acceleration","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G03","criterion":"The text infers from the long-run history of world output or population (hyperbolic or super-exponential growth, or a sequence of ever faster growth modes) that a future transition to much faster growth is plausible or expected.","terms":[]}},{"id":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth","name":"Essential unautomated tasks bottleneck growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G04","criterion":"The text states that growth is constrained because essential tasks or inputs remain unautomated or unimproved, or are automated only slowly, so that automating many but not all tasks, or automating them gradually, does not by itself produce explosive growth (Baumol's cost disease; an elasticity of substitution below one between tasks or between information and other inputs). Reasons why automation stays incomplete or slow (technical difficulty, physical-world tasks, training data, regulation of AI training or deployment, slow adoption) belong here.","terms":[]}},{"id":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth","name":"Other constraints prevent explosive growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G05","criterion":"The text states that constraints that would still bind if machines performed all or nearly all tasks (physical laws or limits, natural resources and energy, the time that natural processes and experiments take, regulation of activities other than AI training and deployment, or demand for human-provided goods) can prevent or quickly end explosive growth.","terms":[]}},{"id":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth","name":"Current data show no approach to explosive growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G06","criterion":"The text states, on the basis of current or recent economic data, that the economy shows no sign yet of approaching a growth singularity or explosive growth.","terms":[]}},{"id":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages","name":"Machine substitution drives wages down","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G07","criterion":"The text states that once machines substitute for human labour at falling cost, the market wage of human labour falls (towards the cost of machine labour, or below subsistence), even while total output or wealth rises.","terms":[]}},{"id":"modest-near-term-ai-productivity-effect","name":"AI’s near-term aggregate productivity effect is modest","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G08","criterion":"The text estimates or states that the effect of AI on aggregate productivity or GDP over roughly the next decade will be modest: a small effect on the level of output, not a change in the growth regime.","terms":[]}},{"id":"explosive-growth-estimates","name":"Estimates of explosive growth within a stated horizon","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G09","criterion":"The text states its own estimate of whether or when explosive growth (as the text defines it) occurs in the actual future, with machine intelligence or automation among the stated drivers. 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Butler’s later prefaces give March 1872."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"fiction","qualifier":"Control half, voiced by a fictional treatise."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-erewhon-1872-contests","subject":"erewhon-1872","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1872","basis":"publication","note":"Year on the title page of the inspected 1872 Trübner printing (Smithsonian Libraries copy, catalogued as the first edition). 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The typescript photocopy is undated, and the text was first printed in 1986; the date identifies the lecture."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No improvement of the capacity to improve is stated."}}},{"id":"ts-c2-turing-1950","subject":"turing-1950-computing-machinery","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"designed-deception-of-testers"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1950-10","basis":"publication","note":"Issue month of Mind, vol. LIX, no. 236, as catalogued for the offprint."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-c1-turing-1950-context","subject":"turing-1950-computing-machinery","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1950-10","basis":"publication","note":"Issue month of Mind, vol. 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The lecture text was not retrieved, so the wording is not dated to it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-wiener-1960-context","subject":"wiener-1960-some-moral-technical","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1960-05-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date printed on the Science pages."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Successive levels of policy adjustment are discussed, not a machine recursively improving its own capacity to improve.","claimed":{"date":"1959-12-27","note":"Printed p. 1355 says the article is adapted from a lecture at the AAAS meeting in Chicago on this day. 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The lecture text was not retrieved, so the wording is not dated to it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-wiener-1960-context","subject":"wiener-1960-some-moral-technical","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1960-05-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date printed on the Science pages."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The speed discussed is of machine operation and decision, not a rapid transition in intelligence.","claimed":{"date":"1959-12-27","note":"Printed p. 1355 says the article is adapted from a lecture at the AAAS meeting in Chicago on this day. The lecture text was not retrieved, so the wording is not dated to it."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-samuel-1960-contests","subject":"samuel-1960-refutation","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1960-09-16","basis":"publication","note":"Issue date in the PubMed record (PMID 17797013)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"The abstract disputes the threat and will premise of the control half.","attested":{"note":"The abstract as indexed by PubMed, retrieved 2026-10-06. The printed pages were not retrieved, and who wrote the abstract is not established."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that the machine could escape human control: it has no will of its own and its conclusions only follow from its input."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-minsky-1961-context","subject":"minsky-1961-steps","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1961-01","basis":"publication","note":"Issue month of Proceedings of the IRE 49 (1)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Learning and planning improve problem solving; a recursively accelerating redesign of the learner is not asserted.","claimed":{"date":"1960-10-24","note":"Receipt date given in the transcription; the submitted version was not retrieved."},"attested":{"note":"Later MIT-hosted HTML transcription, retrieved 2026-10-06; not compared with the journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-minsky-1961-context","subject":"minsky-1961-steps","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1961-01","basis":"publication","note":"Issue month of Proceedings of the IRE 49 (1)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The improvements concern problem-solving search in general, not research that advances machine intelligence.","claimed":{"date":"1960-10-24","note":"Receipt date given in the transcription; the submitted version was not retrieved."},"attested":{"note":"Later MIT-hosted HTML transcription, retrieved 2026-10-06; not compared with the journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-good-1965","subject":"good-1965","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1965","basis":"publication","note":"Year of Advances in Computers, volume 6, as catalogued by Open Library; the current Crossref record gives 1966. The discrepancy is unresolved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"intelligence explosion","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-good-1965","subject":"good-1965","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1965","basis":"publication","note":"Year of Advances in Computers, volume 6, as catalogued by Open Library; the current Crossref record gives 1966. The discrepancy is unresolved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-good-1965-context","subject":"good-1965","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1965","basis":"publication","note":"Year of Advances in Computers, volume 6, as catalogued by Open Library; the current Crossref record gives 1966. The discrepancy is unresolved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The ultraintelligent machine designs better successors, or alters itself by acquiring equipment; the chapter does not say that a machine improves its own capacity to improve.","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-a2-good-1965-context","subject":"good-1965","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1965","basis":"publication","note":"Year of Advances in Computers, volume 6, as catalogued by Open Library; the current Crossref record gives 1966. The discrepancy is unresolved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No deliberately engineered seed design is specified.","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-good-1965","subject":"good-1965","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1965","basis":"publication","note":"Year of Advances in Computers, volume 6, as catalogued by Open Library; the current Crossref record gives 1966. The discrepancy is unresolved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Control half, as a proviso.","claimed":{"date":"1962-10","note":"The chapter’s footnote on p. 31 names talks in October 1962 and January 1963, a first draft of April 1963 and a slightly emended version of May 1964. None was retrieved, so the wording is not dated to them."}}}},{"id":"ts-c1-michie-1968","subject":"michie-1968-computer-servant-or-master","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1968","basis":"publication","note":"Year of first publication in Theoria to Theory 2, pp. 242–249, as given in the 1986 reprint’s acknowledgements; the 1968 pages were not retrieved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1986","note":"Wording checked in the reprint, chapter 20 of On Machine Intelligence, 2nd edition (1986). 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Not compared with the Analog pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-moravec-1979","subject":"moravec-1979-todays-computers","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1979-02","basis":"publication","note":"Issue of Analog (99, no. 2) given in the author’s publication list."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Machines doing part of the research labour.","claimed":{"date":"1976-07-21","note":"The text is dated July 21, 1976, and marked \"this version 1978\"; earlier versions were not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-07-10","note":"Author-hosted HTML; the earliest Internet Archive capture, of 2001-07-10, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the Analog pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-vinge-1983-context","subject":"vinge-1983-first-word","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1983-01","basis":"publication","note":"Omni, January 1983, p. 10, according to Vinge’s 2005 bibliography; the scan shows the byline, column title and page but no masthead."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Accelerating intelligence and successors are stated, but no feedback from machine design to still better design."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1983-context","subject":"vinge-1983-first-word","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1983-01","basis":"publication","note":"Omni, January 1983, p. 10, according to Vinge’s 2005 bibliography; the scan shows the byline, column title and page but no masthead."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The first superhuman intelligence is projected 20–100 years away; the length of the transition after it is not given."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-vinge-1983-context","subject":"vinge-1983-first-word","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1983-01","basis":"publication","note":"Omni, January 1983, p. 10, according to Vinge’s 2005 bibliography; the scan shows the byline, column title and page but no masthead."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Human leadership is predicted to end, without a claim that people could not direct, correct or stop the machines."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-solomonoff-1985","subject":"solomonoff-1985-time-scale","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1985","basis":"publication","note":"Year of Human Systems Management 5, as given in the author’s file and publication list."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A conditional model of a partly artificial research community.","attested":{"date":"2006-07-16","note":"The author’s later typesetting, with a later affiliation and contact details; a byte-identical copy at the author’s earlier address was captured on 2006-07-16. 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Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-drexler-1986","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-drexler-1986-context","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The faster engineering comes from new, assembler-built AI systems; the passage does not have one system improve its own capacity to improve.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-drexler-1986-context","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A great upward leap \"in a brief time\" is predicted, without a period for the transition.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b2-drexler-1986","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-c2-drexler-1986","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"designed-deception-of-testers"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b3-drexler-1986-context","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No learned misaligned objective and no imitation of alignment during training.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b4-drexler-1986-context","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"scheming"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Plotting and scheming are named, but not faking alignment during training or evaluation.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-drexler-1986-contests","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that trustworthy advanced systems are infeasible.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. 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Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-moravec-1989","subject":"moravec-1989-genetic-takeover","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1989","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the printed chapter, as given in the author’s publication list."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1988-07","note":"The author’s file is dated July 1988."},"attested":{"date":"2001-03-06","note":"Author-hosted file; the earliest capture, of 2001-03-06, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-moravec-1989-context","subject":"moravec-1989-genetic-takeover","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1989","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the printed chapter, as given in the author’s publication list."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Increasingly rapid self-improvement is predicted, without a runaway design loop in this passage.","claimed":{"date":"1988-07","note":"The author’s file is dated July 1988."},"attested":{"date":"2001-03-06","note":"Author-hosted file; the earliest capture, of 2001-03-06, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. 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Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1990-context","subject":"extropy-1990-opening-transhuman-mind","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1990","basis":"publication","note":"Summer 1990, as printed in the later electronic edition of the issue."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No transition period; the word \"singularitarian\" describes posthuman art, not a takeoff.","attested":{"note":"Later electronic edition of the issue, not a scan of the original; its date is unknown."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-extropy-1991-context","subject":"extropy-1991-futique-neologisms","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter/Spring 1991 on the page footer; the cover says Spring 1991."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Self-directed evolution accelerates broadly, without machine intelligence improving its own research capacity."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1991-context","subject":"extropy-1991-futique-neologisms","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter/Spring 1991 on the page footer; the cover says Spring 1991."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Enormous acceleration and a limit to foresight, without a transition period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1992-context","subject":"extropy-1992-futique-neologisms-2","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter 1991/92 issue; the year given is when that season began, and publication may fall in early 1992."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Defines an advocate of the technological singularity; no transition period or AI mechanism."}}},{"id":"ts-c1-rosenfelder-1991","subject":"rosenfelder-1991-cheating-turing-test","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991-11-20","basis":"publication","note":"Date header 20 Nov 91 17:56:48 GMT; 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the local receipt line, 1 December, is a separate timestamp."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-c1-rosenfelder-1992","subject":"rosenfelder-1992-real-life-turing-test","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1992-02-10","basis":"publication","note":"Date header 10 Feb 92 23:52:21 GMT; the Message-ID agrees."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-c1-franzen-1992-contests","subject":"franzen-1992-real-life-turing-test-reply","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1992-02-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date header 11 Feb 92 10:29:03 GMT; the reply cites Rosenfelder’s message of 10 February."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes the inference from a badly run test to the insufficiency of a competent one.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that the competition’s result shows behavioural tests to be misleading: a test conducted by people who do not know what they are doing is not the test."}}}},{"id":"ts-c1-mccullough-1992-contests","subject":"mccullough-1992-real-life-turing-test-reply","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1992-02-14","basis":"publication","note":"Date header Fri, 14 Feb 1992 18:57:49 GMT; 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The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-eder-1994-context","subject":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date header as preserved in the relay (23 May 94 03:51:48 GMT, sci.nanotech); the relay lacks the Message-ID and transport headers, so the posting is not independently authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Population, educated researchers and technology reinforce each other, and computer capacity rises with hardware trends; no machine improves its own intelligence or design capacity.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 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(sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","qualifier":"A relay of Good’s proposal."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-clemmensen-1996-08-30","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A positive feedback 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5159."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600, about four hours before Yudkowsky’s related message 5159."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Persuasive lying to gain release is stated, but not a later change of behaviour once the Power is free or strong."}}},{"id":"ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 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Sent header: Tue, 05 Sep 2000 14:19:43 -0400."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement-c","subject":"lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness-c","subject":"lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-08-31","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai-c","subject":"lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system that only outputs answers or plans, leaving humans to act on them, is safe."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty-c","subject":"lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-15","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-sl4-2001-02-25-yudkowsky-0102-0594-c","subject":"sl4-2001-02-25-yudkowsky-0102-0594","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-02-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Feb 25 2001 - 11:44:18 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that a system that only outputs answers or plans, leaving humans to act on them, is safe, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-15","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-15\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 15 Sep 1998 09:20:52 -0500."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310-c","subject":"extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-04-08\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Thu, 08 Apr 1999 20:46:00 -0500."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c","subject":"coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-05","basis":"publication","note":"Text states \"The information is current as of May 2004\"; reprint citation gives 2004. Precision: month."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Known only from MIRI's later, undated PDF reprint of the May 2004 document; the wording was not compared with a 2004 copy."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-lw-2009-value-is-fragile-c","subject":"lw-2009-value-is-fragile","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2009-01-29","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-sl4-2002-06-27-yudkowsky-0206-4453-c","subject":"sl4-2002-06-27-yudkowsky-0206-4453","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu Jun 27 2002 - 11:53:11 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that present-day or programmers' values are settled enough to fix permanently in an AI."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240-c","subject":"sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat Nov 18 2000 - 12:34:51 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that present-day or programmers' values are settled enough to fix permanently in an AI, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-extropians-1996-12-08-yudkowsky-3761-c","subject":"extropians-1996-12-08-yudkowsky-3761","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun, 08 Dec 1996 22:39:23 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Sun, 08 Dec 1996 22:39:23 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that present-day or programmers' values are settled enough to fix permanently in an AI."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short pause (for example six months) is enough."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-b","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It presents an enforced, indefinite and worldwide halt as what would need to be done, not a pause or regulation that will handle the risk."}}},{"id":"yk-y17-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. Reprint wording is not authenticated for 2001 unless a capture was compared."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording also appears in the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; the quotation itself is taken from MIRI’s later reprint."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that regulation that is national, partial or not universally enforced can stop dangerous development."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction-c","subject":"lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that regulation that is national, partial or not universally enforced can stop dangerous development."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction-b","subject":"lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It says that only lawful, state-backed and universal force could stop superintelligence being built; it does not claim that some regulation will handle the risk."}}},{"id":"yk-y17-sl4-2001-04-06-yudkowsky-0104-0956-c","subject":"sl4-2001-04-06-yudkowsky-0104-0956","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-04-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri Apr 06 2001 - 16:53:20 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that regulation that is national, partial or not universally enforced can stop dangerous development."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-sl4-2001-04-08-yudkowsky-0104-1019-c","subject":"sl4-2001-04-08-yudkowsky-0104-1019","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Apr 08 2001 - 09:50:57 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt)."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153-c","subject":"extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-12-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-12-06\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Sun, 06 Dec 1998 12:13:25 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt), even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086-c","subject":"extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-10-21","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-10-21\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 09:30:25 -0500."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt)."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences-c","subject":"lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09-23","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a superintelligence would leave us a small share, because sparing Earth would cost it very little, and against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208-c","subject":"sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jun 23 2002 - 08:16:52 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a superintelligence would leave us a small share, because sparing Earth would cost it very little."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2006-06-13-yudkowsky-0606-15271-c","subject":"sl4-2006-06-13-yudkowsky-0606-15271","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-06-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Jun 13 2006 - 00:34:22 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-25\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 18:18:21 -0500."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-b","subject":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600. Date line of Yudkowsky's reply inside the echoed exchange: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:27:52 -0600; list message sent 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About benevolent upgrading of revived people, not about a superintelligence leaving Earth a small share."}}},{"id":"yk-y19-arbital-instrumental-convergence-c","subject":"arbital-instrumental-convergence","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-07-16","basis":"publication","note":"Viewer shows \"16 Jul 2015\", probably the creation date; the body says \"As of 2016\" and uses later terminology, so at least part of the cached wording postdates 2015."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Arbital pages could be edited after creation; the viewer shows a page date, and the quoted wording is known only from the page as retrieved in 2026."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-iem-2013-c","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"Report states \"Last modified September 13, 2013\"; first released April 2013."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208-c","subject":"sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jun 23 2002 - 08:16:52 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. 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Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-sl4-2001-02-07-yudkowsky-0102-0545-c","subject":"sl4-2001-02-07-yudkowsky-0102-0545","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-02-07","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed Feb 07 2001 - 21:09:16 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-sl4-2004-06-01-yudkowsky-0406-8905-c","subject":"sl4-2004-06-01-yudkowsky-0406-8905","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-06-01","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Jun 01 2004 - 06:01:06 MDT\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-a","subject":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". Date of his reply inside a private exchange he forwarded to the list on 1996-11-22."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) articulates G01. Summarises the paper's exogenous-growth models: once machines substitute for human labour, the labour force can be produced like capital and growth rates rise. The paper's numerical example gives 4.3% growth before and 45% after. States the two assumptions the result depends on.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g01-a","evidence-ec-g01-a2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Exogenous technology growth; computer prices halving every two years; machine labour instantly producible; diminishing returns to all inputs together; product shares chosen as \"conservative\" (labour 0.25, capital 0.5, computers 0.02)."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates G01. States the model condition for a supply-side \"Singularity\": substitution of information capital for labour above unit elasticity. The paper then tests for the signs this mechanism would leave.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g01-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Two-input production with information capital and labour; constant elasticity of substitution above one; information capital improving rapidly."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates G01. With every task in goods production automated, the model becomes an AK model and ongoing productivity growth makes growth rates themselves rise over time (\"Type I\": growth rates rising without bound).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g01-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"Full automation of goods production; ongoing technological progress."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) articulates G01. Opens the paper's summary of its assessment: substitution of AI for labour on most or all tasks makes explosive growth the default prediction of growth models.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g01-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"AI able to substitute for human labour on most or all tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G01. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu defines explosive growth as at least ten times the past century's annual growth rate, sustained for at least a decade, and gives a conditional probability.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g01-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Conditional on AI automating the vast majority of tasks; explosive growth defined as at least tenfold the past century's growth rate for a decade or more."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) articulates G01. In a toy scenario in which AI robots substitute perfectly for all human labour, labour can be accumulated by investing in robots, and the report concludes that growth models then make super-exponential growth the default expectation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g01-davidson-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"A toy scenario in which AI robots can perfectly substitute for all human labour, so that labour can be accumulated through investment in robots."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) contests G01. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy questions whether growth models can be extrapolated to growth far outside historical experience. Earlier in the debate he puts the chance of explosive growth at 10–20%. Clancy's answer to Besiroglu's 65%, given on the same condition of AI deployed throughout the economy. He adds that most of the probability is \"clustered around the low end of explosive growth\", and the same turn doubts that growth models can be extrapolated so far.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g01-f","evidence-ec-g01-f2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that growth models remain reliable when extrapolated far beyond historical growth rates; the turn gives a reason (the reach of growth models beyond historical experience) against the premise of the model-based argument."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b","subject":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Some Skepticism (comment in \"A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept\")” (1998-10) bears on G01. In a comment that is otherwise sceptical of Vinge's singularity, Hanson accepts that uploads could bring bursts of growth by removing biological limits on reproducing \"human\" capital.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-10","basis":"publication","note":"Copyright line \"©1998 by Robin Hanson\" at the end of the comment; the author's December 2000 vita (2000-12-05 capture of hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html) lists the discussion as \"Extropy Online, Oct. 1998\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g01-g"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes temporary spurts of growth, not a sustained rise in the growth rate by an order of magnitude.","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-b","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “If Uploads Come First: The crack of a future dawn” (1994-03-08) bears on G01. If copying uploads is fast and cheap, their population could outgrow total wealth, lowering per-copy wealth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". The printed issue was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g01-h"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States that the population of uploads grows faster than wealth; does not state that the growth rate of total output rises.","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. His later record as an economist does not count for this text."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates G02. If an AI replaces all people in producing ideas and ideas build on earlier ideas, the model reaches infinite income in finite time.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g02-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"All tasks in idea production automated; returns to existing knowledge in idea production (φ) above zero."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-c","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) contests G02. If ideas become harder to find fast enough, even fully automated research does not produce a singularity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g02-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Targets the premise that automated idea production keeps sufficient returns; with strongly diminishing returns to search, growth need not explode."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-c","subject":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Some Skepticism (comment in \"A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept\")” (1998-10) contests G02. Answers the claim that smarter entities produce even smarter entities faster: improvement gets harder as easy gains are used up, as with schooling, factory learning and the Flynn effect. Argues that greater intelligence or speed changes the level of world product once, not its later growth rate. The next sentences grant that growth may rise with the size of the economy, as it has for millennia.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-10","basis":"publication","note":"Copyright line \"©1998 by Robin Hanson\" at the end of the comment; the author's December 2000 vita (2000-12-05 capture of hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html) lists the discussion as \"Extropy Online, Oct. 1998\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g02-c","evidence-ec-g02-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Rejects the premise that the task of self-improvement stays equally hard as intelligence rises; rejects the premise that higher intelligence or speed raises the growth rate rather than the level of output."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) articulates G02. Restates the ideas feedback loop of semi-endogenous growth models with AI systems in place of population, after the demographic transition broke the human loop. Draws the conclusion of the feedback argument (audit A: the first passage alone stops before it).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g02-e","evidence-ec-g02-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"AI substituting very effectively for human labour in both production and R&D."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G02. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu argues that AI restores the population-ideas feedback that drove historical acceleration.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g02-f"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"AI that substitutes for human workers and idea producers; a semi-endogenous growth model in which ideas are non-rival and output, population and ideas feed back on each other."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) bears on G02. In a variant where technology improves with production experience, some parameter values remove diminishing returns and growth keeps accelerating. The author sets this aside to stay \"conservative\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g02-g"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The feedback runs through learning by doing in production, not through machines doing research.","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share” (2021-02-04) bears on G02. Infers from historical data that returns to existing knowledge in research have been below the threshold at which a constant research effort produces a finite-time singularity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g02-h"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the historical value of a parameter; it does not say whether AI researchers, whose number can grow, would produce accelerating growth.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) articulates G03. Cites the author's own analysis of long-run growth (the 1998 first version of \"Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes\") against rejecting the model's fast growth \"out of hand\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g03-0"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-a","subject":"hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth” (1998-06) articulates G03. From historical trends in growth rates he infers that the economy is slowly moving towards a high-growth mode and may reach it in roughly a century and a half.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page header: \"Journal of Transhumanism 2, June 1998\". Hanson is an economist."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g03-hanson-1998-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-03-30","note":"Author’s dateline at the end of the page (\"March 30, 1998\"); it does not date the published wording."},"attested":{"date":"1999-01-28","note":"Wayback capture of the author-hosted page."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Journal article by an author with economist standing in 1998: the archived January 1999 homepage and vita show an economics address, economics teaching in 1995–96 and economics publications before 1998 (checked by the GPT review on 2026-10-15; web.archive.org was not reachable in the correction pass). The vita gives a 1997 PhD without naming the field, so \"economics PhD\" is not claimed."},"conditions":"The Conclusion opens: \"If we assume that the risk and time preferences of future investors will not vary much from those which evolution has given us\"."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","subject":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (2000-12) articulates G03. Fits world product over two million years with a few exponential \"modes\" (hunting, farming, industry) and extrapolates the pattern of transitions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Title page: \"December, 2000 / First Version September 1998\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g03-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"The sum-of-exponentials or CES-combined model of growth modes; parameters of a new transition similar to those of past transitions."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b","subject":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Some Skepticism (comment in \"A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept\")” (1998-10) bears on G03. Grants that growth rates may rise with the size of the world economy, but treats that as the long-standing accelerating trend, not a reason to expect a sudden break.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-10","basis":"publication","note":"Copyright line \"©1998 by Robin Hanson\" at the end of the comment; the author's December 2000 vita (2000-12-05 capture of hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html) lists the discussion as \"Extropy Online, Oct. 1998\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g03-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Uses the accelerating historical trend to bound expectations; does not infer a transition to much faster growth.","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory-a","subject":"roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Roodman, “Modeling the Human Trajectory” (2020-06-15) articulates G03. Roodman fits a stochastic super-exponential model to gross world product since prehistory and draws out its instability.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamps of 2020-06-15 on the page and the 2022 page's \"Published: June 15, 2020\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g03-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the post."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (changed from 2). A long essay (not short-form commentary) presenting the author's own growth model, on a foundation's blog. The author has an established record as an economist: articles in economics journals such as The World Bank Economic Review (2007) and Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2015) (Crossref, searched 2026-10-11). No economics appointment is shown on the page. His linked technical paper (posted to SSRN, Crossref 2026) would also be tier 1; it was not retrieved and holds no record here."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a","subject":"karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Karnofsky, “Comment on \"Modeling the Human Trajectory\" (\"Some personal reactions on this piece\")” (2020-06-15) articulates G03. Karnofsky, who writes that he asked Roodman to evaluate Hanson's work, states what he takes from the post; he \"wouldn't take the model discussed in this piece literally\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamp \"June 15, 2020 at 10:44 am\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g03-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Capture of the post with its comments; comments are absent from the 2022 page."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Comment on a blog post by an author not presented as an economist and with no established record as one."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) articulates G03. An argument from history without a specific model: growth has sped up before, so a further increase should not be ruled out.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g03-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G03. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Points to faster growth after the Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions, and to double-digit catch-up growth, as precedent.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g03-f"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-b","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) bears on G03. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy questions whether past accelerations are informative about an acceleration driven by intelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g03-g"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Disputes that past accelerations are informative about an acceleration driven by intelligence; G03 does not require that mechanism, and the same turn grants that past acceleration \"is a good reason to think there is some chance it could happen again\".","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates G04. Rapid improvement in information technology raises aggregate growth only if information substitutes well for other inputs in production, or for other goods in consumption. The inelastic case of the same model: growth converges to that of the slowest input.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g04-a","evidence-ec-g04-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"(G04-a) Elasticity of substitution between information and other inputs or goods below one. (G04-b) Elasticity of substitution between information capital and labour below one."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates G04. The paper's organising theme, developed in its task-based models of automation. States the condition directly. The same example then shows that with Cobb-Douglas production a singularity can occur without full automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g04-c","evidence-ec-g04-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"(G04-c) Tasks are complements (elasticity of substitution below one). (G04-d) CES production across tasks with elasticity of substitution below one."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-c","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) contests G04. In the paper's example, a residue of human-only jobs lengthens the economic doubling time from 18 to 27 months, against 16 years without machine intelligence: growth stays far above historical rates.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g04-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"A model result under fixed product shares (Cobb-Douglas form); it does not argue against the premise that unautomated tasks are strong complements."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Product shares fixed; human-only jobs keep a share of 0.05 of output in the example."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) contests G04. Responds to the Aghion, Jones and Jones bottleneck. Davidson accepts that it \"correctly highlights that AI may lead to very widespread automation without explosive growth occurring\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g04-f"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that some essential task will remain unautomated, and adds that partial automation can raise growth temporarily."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) contests G04. Based on a CES task model calibrated with a range of substitution parameters: fast automation of most tasks can give a large transitory boost even with bottlenecks. Section 3.1 treats the objection that \"the training or deployment of AI systems will be sufficiently impeded by regulation\"; the authors argue that incentives for AI adoption resemble those for nuclear proliferation, so coordination to slow it is likely to be imperfect.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g04-g","evidence-ec-g04-g2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that partial automation cannot produce explosive growth, by modelling a fast transition with complementary tasks; disputes the premise that regulation of AI training or deployment will keep tasks unautomated for long enough to hold growth down."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"The sentence opens \"even if the other arguments fail to go through and we cannot even attain AI that perfectly substitutes for humans across all tasks\". CES task model with complementary tasks; a fixed stock of inputs reallocated from automated to unautomated tasks; input to automated tasks approximated as infinite (very cheap, very large AI inputs), so finite AI input would reduce the effect; about 90% of tasks automated (f = 0.1 unautomated) within less than ten years; substitution parameter ρ = −2 between tasks, below the range of −1.2 to −0.14 the authors cite as plausible for capital and labour."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu (2023-06) articulates G04. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy gives a verbal version of the Aghion, Jones and Jones task model applied to innovation: with every task required and automation advancing about 1% a year, growth stays steady; only faster or full automation gives explosive growth. Clancy says AI is \"pretty likely to boost growth\" and then lists bottlenecks that slow AGI's takeover of tasks: physical-world tasks, raw materials, training data, the time natural processes take, preferences for human performers, regulation and zero-sum competition. Clancy's closing turn: different sectors are held back by materials, time, data or regulation; sectors that automate easily become cheap and \"no longer count for much of GDP\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g04-h","evidence-ec-g04-k","evidence-ec-g04-k2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Every innovation task is required; innovation gets harder each year; displaced workers retrain onto the remaining tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) contests G04. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu argues that with complementary tasks, scaling digital workers on automated tasks still raises output by one or two orders of magnitude unless a large share of tasks stays unautomated.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g04-j"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a few unautomated tasks suffice to block explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Tasks are complements; \"digital workers\" on automated tasks scaled up at least tenfold; automation going \"from little to substantial\" over decades rather than about a century; substitution of AI for human labour not unusually hard. In the same turn Besiroglu says that with 25% of tasks unautomated output could still rise by one or two orders of magnitude."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates G05. Gives physical limits, such as Carnot's theorem for energy conversion, as examples of essential inputs whose productivity cannot keep rising.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g05-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"Some essential input subject to physical limits on productivity; tasks are complements."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share” (2021-02-04) bears on G05. Treats growth-rate increases and singularities as benchmarks that hold \"for some time\" before limits such as land or energy bind.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g05-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says limits end super-exponential growth eventually; does not say they prevent explosive growth or end it quickly.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-c","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) contests G05. Raises the objection that energy, water, minerals and thermodynamics limit accelerating growth, and answers it with the fall in energy needed per computation since ENIAC.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g05-n"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that physical resource needs bind, because inputs per unit of output can fall as fast as production rises."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) contests G05. Responds to a list of bottlenecks (regulation, materials, physical experiments, human adjustment, fundamental limits) with incentives to remove them, past 10% catch-up growth and 30% growth of individual businesses.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g05-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that any one listed bottleneck is certain to bind, while granting \"some chance\" that one does."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) contests G05. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu sets three conditions a resource bottleneck must meet (vital, hard to substitute, impossible to expand by an order of magnitude); he also argues that experiments can be parallelised and that regulation faces strong incentives to be bypassed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g05-f"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons in the same turn against the premises that resource limits and experiment times bind."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) contests G05. Accepts eventual limits and contests their timing, with an estimate of returns to scale.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g05-g"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that resource constraints bind soon enough to preclude explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) bears on G06. Six diagnostic tests on US data (productivity growth, capital share, capital prices, capital-output ratio, information capital share, wage growth) plus a demand-side test. For the two positive tests, simple extrapolation puts the crossing point 100 years or more away.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g06-a","evidence-ec-g06-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(G06-a) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06. (G06-b) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06.","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Singularity defined in the paper as \"a time when the economic growth rate crosses 20% per year\"; tests on US data to about 2014."}}},{"id":"ec-g06-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) articulates G06. Responding to the objection that macroeconomic data show none of the signs explosive growth would leave (the objection cites Nordhaus (2021)), Davidson accepts the absence of signs for the next two decades and limits its reach beyond.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g06-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G06. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy answers Besiroglu's point about fast growth in AI training compute.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g06-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-a","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “If Uploads Come First: The crack of a future dawn” (1994-03-08) articulates G07. If brain emulations can be copied cheaply and selection favours those willing to work for little, copying continues until wages approach subsistence. Names human wages explicitly, for the period in which the upload population expands.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". The printed issue was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g07-a","evidence-ec-g07-a2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. His later record as an economist does not count for this text."},"conditions":"Uploads can be copied fast and cheaply; values evolve under selection; copying is not forcibly prevented."}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) articulates G07. In the paper's model, wages first rise and later fall at the rate of computer price declines, while growth rates rise. States the extreme case of the model's wage path.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g07-b","evidence-ec-g07-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Exogenous-growth model with machine labour substituting for human labour; falling computer prices."}}},{"id":"ec-g07-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates G07. A polar case of his model with heterogeneous labour; skilled labour, an imperfect substitute, fares differently.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g07-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Unskilled labour a perfect substitute for information capital; skilled labour highly but imperfectly substitutable."}}},{"id":"ec-g08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"modest-near-term-ai-productivity-effect"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-04-05) articulates G08. A task-based estimate using Hulten's theorem: the share of tasks exposed to AI times the average task-level cost saving. The GDP effect after an assumed investment response; under the investment assumptions of earlier automation the upper bound rises to 1.6–1.8%.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-05","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"April 5, 2024\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g08-a","evidence-ec-g08-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (MIT Economics, author-hosted PDF) writing for a core economics venue: prepared for Economic Policy; NBER Working Paper 32487; journal version in Economic Policy."},"conditions":"Task-based model; cost savings at the task level; existing estimates of exposure (about 4.6% of tasks affected within ten years) and of cost savings (15.4%)."}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) articulates G09. The next sentence: the prediction \"suggests that we not reject out of hand the predictions of this model of machine intelligence\", and the following one links 2025 to brain-equivalent computer hardware.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g09-0"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Robin Hanson","value":"median prediction of a transition to an economic doubling time of one to two years","horizon":"around 2025 (measured from an undated file attested 2000)","definition":"doubling time of world product of one to two years","conditional":true,"conditions":"\"an empirical projection of historical trends in world economic growth\"; the author adds that it \"has large uncertainties\" and links 2025 to brain-equivalent computer hardware in the next sentence."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","subject":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (2000-12) articulates G09. The next sentences point to falling computer hardware costs, predicted machine substitution for most human labour, and his own model of growth with robots. Links the forecast to machine substitution for labour, citing his own 1998 paper (G01-a).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Title page: \"December, 2000 / First Version September 1998\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g09-a","evidence-ec-g09-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"\"if one takes seriously the model of economic growth as a series of exponential growth modes, and if relative change parameters of a new transition are likely to be similar to such parameters describing old transitions\".","estimates":[{"holder":"Robin Hanson","value":"\"hard to escape the conclusion that the world economy could see a very dramatic change\"","horizon":"within the next century (from December 2000)","definition":"a new growth mode with a doubling time of roughly two weeks or less","conditional":true,"conditions":"If the series-of-modes model is taken seriously and a new transition resembles past ones."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a","subject":"karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Karnofsky, “Comment on \"Modeling the Human Trajectory\" (\"Some personal reactions on this piece\")” (2020-06-15) articulates G09. The same comment says he independently holds that transformative AI \"could plausibly be developed in the next couple of decades\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamp \"June 15, 2020 at 10:44 am\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g09-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Capture of the post with its comments; comments are absent from the 2022 page."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Comment on a blog post by an author not presented as an economist and with no established record as one."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Holden Karnofsky","value":"\"little reason to 'rule out' explosive growth\"","horizon":"the coming decades (from June 2020)","definition":"not defined in the comment","conditional":false,"conditions":"Tentative agreement with Roodman's themes; the same comment says transformative AI \"could plausibly be developed in the next couple of decades\"."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) articulates G09. Explosive growth is defined in the report as more than 30% annual growth of gross world product. Follows: \"On a different day my probability of explosive growth by 2100 might be as low as 15% or as high as 60%.\"","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g09-d","evidence-ec-g09-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined as >30% annual GWP growth; horizon 2100.","estimates":[{"holder":"Tom Davidson","value":"\"plausible but far from certain\"; >10% (Appendix G); \"as low as 15% or as high as 60%\" on different days","horizon":"by 2100 (from June 2021)","definition":"more than 30% annual growth of gross world product","conditional":false,"conditions":"Overall judgement across the report's models and objections."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) articulates G09. The authors' unconditional estimate. The same paragraph says high confidence \"seems unwarranted\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g09-f"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined in the paper as annual real GWP exceeding 130% of its maximum value over all previous years (about ten times growth rates typical of today's frontier economies).","estimates":[{"holder":"Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu","value":"about even odds of widespread automation and subsequent explosive growth","horizon":"by the end of this century (from October 2023)","definition":"annual real gross world product exceeding 130% of its maximum over all previous years","conditional":false,"conditions":"The same paragraph says high confidence \"seems unwarranted\"."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates G09. Extrapolating the two positive tests puts growth above 20% a year at least a century away.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g09-h"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"estimates":[{"holder":"William D. Nordhaus","value":"the economy \"might plausibly cross the Singularity\" in \"100 years or more\"","horizon":"100 years or more (from 2015)","definition":"economic growth rate crossing 20% per year","conditional":true,"conditions":"Simple extrapolation of the two of seven tests that are positive; no probability and no duration given."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-04-05) bears on G09. Compares his ten-year estimate with larger forecasts. A footnote cites Davidson (2021) among those who expect \"explosive\" growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-05","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"April 5, 2024\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g09-i"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the next ten years and current AI; does not assess explosive growth this century.","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (MIT Economics, author-hosted PDF) writing for a core economics venue: prepared for Economic Policy; NBER Working Paper 32487; journal version in Economic Policy."}}}},{"id":"ec-g09-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G09. Speakers: Tamay Besiroglu; Matt Clancy. Besiroglu's estimate conditional on AI automating the vast majority of tasks. In his closing turn he gives 25–75% \"conditional on AGI\". He separately puts the development of such AI this century at about 80%; he does not combine the figures. Clancy's estimate on the same condition, with \"most of that probability clustered around the low end of explosive growth\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-g09-j","evidence-ec-g09-k"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Tamay Besiroglu","value":"65%; at the close 25–75% \"conditional on AGI\"","horizon":"not stated; conditional on the arrival of the AI described","definition":"at least ten times the annual growth rate of the past century, sustained for at least a decade","conditional":true,"conditions":"AI that automates the vast majority of tasks currently performed by humans."},{"holder":"Matt Clancy","value":"10% to 20%, \"depending on how I'm feeling\"","horizon":"not stated; conditional on deploying AI throughout the economy","definition":"Besiroglu's definition (at least tenfold the past century's growth rate for at least a decade)","conditional":true,"conditions":"AI deployed throughout the economy."}]}}},{"id":"ec-m01-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-b","subject":"buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Buckingham, “Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) bears on M01. Speaker: Walter S. Buckingham Jr., associate professor, Georgia Institute of Technology (economist). Buckingham lists three things called automation in 1955: electronic computers processing data, automatic machines on assembly lines, and the hypothetical fully automatic enterprise.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed; the volume was printed by the GPO in 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes what electronic computers can do; it does not by itself say whether the economist's analysis treats them as ordinary technical change. That framing is on p. 31 (mechanization principle).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"Choice is limited to 'previously anticipated' courses of action under built-in criteria."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","subject":"buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Buckingham, “Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) articulates M01. Speaker: Walter S. Buckingham Jr., associate professor, Georgia Institute of Technology (economist). Under 'mechanization', the first of four principles of automation, Buckingham says mechanization sometimes substitutes machinery for muscle (the steam engine) and sometimes substitutes machinery for routine brainwork (the electronic computer). Both appear as cases of one general principle.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed; the volume was printed by the GPO in 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"Restricted to brainwork 'at the lower, routine levels'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-b","subject":"nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nourse, “Statement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-28) bears on M01. Speaker: Edwin G. Nourse, former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers (economist). Nourse says the hearings, from Ford's vice president to Vannevar Bush, traced automation as mechanization: new devices, with electronics applied to the control of mechanical and chemical processes. Commenting on Buckingham's four principles, Nourse argues that continuous process is old and that the real change came with electronic feedback control.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-28","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-03","evidence-ec-m01-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M01-03) Describes the computer's role as substitution of mechanical for mental work; no economic analysis of it as ordinary technical change in this sentence (see M01-05). (M01-04) Nourse distinguishes feedback control technologically; this does not dispute analysing automation as ordinary economic technical change.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"(M01-03) Summarises the witnesses' account of 'automation as mechanization'. (M01-04) The newness is technological, in feedback control. He continues: 'It has its roots in mechanization, to be sure, but something new was added.'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","subject":"nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nourse, “Statement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-28) articulates M01. Speaker: Edwin G. Nourse, former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers (economist). Nourse's first point: automation is 'only one inseparable part of the larger problem of technological progress', alongside jet propulsion, new metallurgy, plastics and atomic fission. He says it 'is only a way of increasing this varied and highly productive technology'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-28","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"The sentence continues: 'of trying to capture the values of higher productivity put within our reach by scientific progress'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-b","subject":"technology-and-the-american-economy-1966","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, “Technology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I” (1966-02) bears on M01. The Commission says the present is a time of rapid progress but that 'this is as far as we are prepared to go'. It concludes that no sharp break in the continuity of technical progress has occurred or is likely in the next decade.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Report dated February 1966. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv) is stated not to be part of the official report. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Agnostic on whether the computer is more revolutionary than earlier technologies; gives no positive analysis of it as ordinary technical change.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Main Commission report: tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (most members were not economists; the chair Bowen and Solow were). Was tier 1. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"Agnostic rather than a denial. The chapter then measures technological change through output per man-hour and diffusion lags, the same measures for every innovation."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-sporn-haggerty-1966-comment-b","subject":"sporn-haggerty-1966-comment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sporn and Haggerty, “Comment by Mr. Sporn, joined by Mr. Haggerty, in Technology and the American Economy, Vol. I” (1966-02) bears on M01. Speaker: Philip Sporn (utility executive; Commission member, non-economist), joined by Patrick E. Haggerty. Sporn says the report under-emphasises technology's positive contributions. A parallel comment by Beirne, Hayes and Reuther (p. 6) says the report lacks urgency.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the report. A separate comment by two non-economist members (a utility executive and an industrialist), printed with the report. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A comment by two non-economist members, not the Commission's analysis.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Comment by two non-economist members (a utility executive and an industrialist)."},"conditions":"Individual members' dissenting-emphasis comment, not Commission text."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-lynn-1966-diffusion-of-technology-b","subject":"lynn-1966-diffusion-of-technology","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Lynn, “An Investigation of the Rate of Development and Diffusion of Technology in Our Modern Industrial Society” (1966-02) bears on M01. Speaker: Frank Lynn, INTEC, Incorporated, Chicago (consultant; not an economist). Lynn measures incubation and diffusion periods across a set of innovation case studies; the computer is one case.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the appendix volume; author a consultant (INTEC, Inc.), not an economist. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Technological description inside a diffusion case study. The computer is one of several case-study innovations (with nuclear power, numerical control and others) analysed by the same time-lag method. No economic category.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (consultant, INTEC, Inc.)."},"conditions":"The same section says the 1948 stored program and memory 'transformed the computer from a high-speed adding machine to its present status of “electronic brain.”' (the term is in quotation marks in the source)."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-mansfield-1966-technological-change-b","subject":"mansfield-1966-technological-change","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Mansfield, “Technological Change: Measurement, Determinants, and Diffusion” (1966-02) bears on M01. Speaker: Edwin Mansfield, University of Pennsylvania (economist), 'Technological Change: Measurement, Determinants, and Diffusion'. Commissioned survey of how economists measure technical change (partial and total productivity indexes, organisational and capital-embodied change). Part II, sec. 8 asks whether the rate has increased, quoting Diebold and DuBridge on automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the appendix volume. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A general definition of technological change, not an analysis of computers or automation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Economist author (Edwin Mansfield; established record as an economist)."},"conditions":"General definition; applies 'regardless of its source or form'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-c","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) contests M01. After reviewing Simon's comparative-advantage argument and Leontief's input-output work, Nilsson argues that AI differs in kind from earlier labour-saving technologies, so the usual expansion-of-employment reasoning does not carry over.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Directly rejects the premise that AI can be analysed like previous labour-saving technologies, citing Simon's model as the contrary view."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M01. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Puts the 1984 projections in a long-run perspective.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-11"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A historical analogy that treats the 'electronic revolution' like mechanical power. It is not an analytical treatment of computers as ordinary technical change, though the report's method (technical coefficients in an input-output model) does treat them that way.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Preceded by: the industrial revolution of mechanical power continued 'over a period of some two hundred years'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure-b","subject":"krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Krueger, “How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984-89” (1991-10) bears on M01. Krueger frames computers as a measurable workplace technology and estimates a wage premium for computer users from CPS and High School and Beyond microdata.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 1991\"; text dated \"August 1991\" inside. Journal version: QJE 108(1), 1993 (Crossref census), not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-12"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States the research question; the framing as technical change is in M01-13.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Krueger an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure-a","subject":"krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Krueger, “How Computers Have Changed the Wage Structure: Evidence from Microdata, 1984-89” (1991-10) articulates M01. The conclusion places the computer premium inside the skill-biased technological change explanation of 1980s wage-structure changes, against the competing trade explanation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 1991\"; text dated \"August 1991\" inside. Journal version: QJE 108(1), 1993 (Crossref census), not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Krueger an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-a","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) articulates M01. 'Smart machines' enter the model as machinery whose efficiency parameter u rises, a factor-augmenting technical change in a nested CES production function with unskilled and skilled labour.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."},"conditions":"Machines and unskilled labour combine in a CES intermediate; the intermediate combines with skilled labour; u is machine efficiency."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-b","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) bears on M01. The authors judge the routine/non-routine task framework inadequate for machine learning and mobile robotics and add engineering-bottleneck dimensions drawn from computer science.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-15"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Neither clearly ordinary technical-change analysis (it revises the task model's premises about what computers can do) nor a separate category for machine cognition (computer capital remains an input at a falling price).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) bears on M01. Nordhaus models AI-driven growth with a standard neoclassical growth model in which information capital receives capital-augmenting technical change; the outcome turns on the elasticity of substitution.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Dated September 2015, after the working boundary; the paper also discusses superintelligence as a distinct prospect drawn from computer science.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."},"conditions":"Constant savings rate, closed economy, capital-augmenting technical change, CES production."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment” (2016-05) bears on M01. Positions the task model against the \"more commonly-used\" factor-augmenting models, which the authors say do not produce these effects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2016, Revised June 2017\". Journal version: AER 108(6), 2018, pp. 1488–1542 (abstract page aer2018-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-17"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Not a pre-2015 text; it characterises the prevailing factor-augmenting approach without naming the earlier texts.","attested":{"date":"2017-06","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the May 2016 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on M01. Places AI in a continuous history of automation from the steam engine to semiconductors, while noting AI may now reach non-routine cognitive tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-18"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Not a pre-2015 text; a 2017 statement of continuity between AI and earlier automation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) bears on M01. Argues that the canonical factor-augmenting production function cannot represent automation's displacement of labour.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-19"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Not a pre-2015 text; characterises the canonical F(AL, BK) approach without dating particular texts.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Modeling Automation” (2018-05) bears on M01. Opens by rejecting the factor-augmenting treatment of automation, implying it was an available modelling convention that the authors replace with a task-based one.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-05","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-20"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Not a pre-2015 text; it criticises the factor-augmenting approach rather than exemplifying it, and names no earlier texts.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AEA Papers and Proceedings (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M01. The authors describe the standard approach as treating technology as making labour more productive across all tasks, which they reject as unrealistic.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-21"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"A later characterisation, not a pre-2015 text analysing computers as ordinary technical change.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) bears on M01. The authors contrast their task framework with the canonical factor-augmenting production function, which they say lacks descriptive realism.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-22"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"A later text describing the canonical approach; not itself a pre-2015 text.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-b","subject":"nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nourse, “Statement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-28) bears on M02. Speaker: Edwin G. Nourse, former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers (economist). Nourse locates the 'real change' in electronic devices that remove the need for human judgement in process control.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-28","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes machines taking over the mental element of control work, but not within a framework that allocates tasks between capital and labour, and not as AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"'to considerable extent'; limited to control of continuous production processes."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-b","subject":"technology-and-the-american-economy-1966","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, “Technology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I” (1966-02) bears on M02. Speaker: Howard R. Bowen, Commission chairman (economist), chairman's introduction (not part of the official report). Bowen's view of where technology should go: towards human, environmental and resource development, with new kinds of work and more leisure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Report dated February 1966. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv) is stated not to be part of the official report. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Divides work into routine/mechanical (machines) and new human activities, but without a task-allocation model and not about AI.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Main Commission report: tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (most members were not economists; the chair Bowen and Solow were). Was tier 1. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"Followed by: 'Human resources will be released and available for new activities beyond those that are required for mere subsistence.'."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-newhouse-1966-technological-change-in-banking-b","subject":"newhouse-1966-technological-change-in-banking","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Newhouse, “Technological Change in Banking” (1966-02) bears on M02. Speaker: Joseph P. Newhouse, Harvard University (byline; also listed as a Commission staff analyst), 'Technological Change in Banking'. Newhouse finds that aggregate statistics say little; case studies show EDP eliminating routine clerical jobs, with adjustment largely through attrition given high turnover.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the appendix volume. Byline Harvard University. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Identifies the occupations most vulnerable to electronic data processing (EDP) through case studies. It is occupational, not a task-allocation model, and concerns EDP, not AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Economist by established record: B.A. and Ph.D. in economics, Harvard (Harvard Kennedy School faculty page, retrieved 2026-10-11). The 1966 text shows only the byline \"Harvard University\", so his standing at that date is not shown in the text."},"conditions":"The sentence begins 'the most vulnerable occupations are' (OCR garbles the following comma) 'as might be expected'. Case examples follow: bookkeepers at one branch bank fell from 600 to 150 within eighteen months."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M02. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Introduces the chapter's procedures for representing computer-based technologies in capital, input and labour coefficients. Projecting managerial labour coefficients under office automation. Overview before estimating robot stocks and displacement.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-04","evidence-ec-m02-05","evidence-ec-m02-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M02-04) Task language without a task-allocation model; the model works through input-output labour coefficients by occupation and sector. Computers, not AI. (M02-05) Software replacing decision-making tasks of managers, stated descriptively; no task-allocation framework, not AI. (M02-06) Robots taking over tasks previously done only by humans, in prose; the model represents this as labour displacement rates per robot in six production occupations, not a task framework. Not AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"(M02-04) Labour savings 'of particular significance' for banking, insurance, legal services and government. (M02-05) 'certain' tasks. The passage adds that fewer managers will be needed as integrated office systems reduce clerical staff. (M02-06) Supported by the Robot Institute of America definition, quoted by the authors."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-b","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) bears on M02. The abstract describes the model's mechanism: smart machines substitute for unskilled labour and complement skilled labour.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Substitution is between factors (machines and unskilled labour) in a CES function, not machines taking over tasks within a task framework.","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-a","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) articulates M02. Extending the Autor-Levy-Murnane task model, the authors argue that machine learning lets computer capital substitute for labour in non-routine as well as routine tasks, limited only by perception/manipulation, creative and social-intelligence bottlenecks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."},"conditions":"Computer capital supplied perfectly elastically at a falling price; workers reallocate by comparative advantage."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-autor-2015-why-are-there-still-so-many-jobs-a","subject":"autor-2015-why-are-there-still-so-many-jobs","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Autor, “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation” (2015) articulates M02. Autor describes automation as computers substituting for workers in routine, codifiable tasks while complementing workers in non-routine tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page: vol. 29, no. 3, Summer 2015. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment” (2016-05) articulates M02. Introduces a task framework in which automation moves labour-performed tasks to capital while new tasks in which labour has comparative advantage are created; motivated by concerns about robotics and AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2016, Revised June 2017\". Journal version: AER 108(6), 2018, pp. 1488–1542 (abstract page aer2018-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2017-06","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the May 2016 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates M02. Frames AI within a task-based automation model (building on Zeira 1998 and Acemoglu and Restrepo) in which tasks move from labour to capital.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-11"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) articulates M02. Applies the task framework explicitly to AI and robotics, emphasising a displacement effect absent from factor-augmenting models.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-12"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Modeling Automation” (2018-05) bears on M02. Argues for modelling automation as machines taking over labour-performed tasks rather than as factor-augmenting technical change.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-05","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Automation in general; AI is not named in the abstract.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AEA Papers and Proceedings (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment” (2018-06) articulates M02. The abstract sets the paper in a framework in which labour-performed tasks are automated while new labour-advantaged tasks are created, to examine concerns that labour will become redundant.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-jep-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-jep","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019) bears on M02. The abstract distinguishes cases where automated prediction automates decisions from cases where it enhances human decisions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-15"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Presents automation as one of two outcomes rather than AI's economic effect.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019) articulates M02. The published JEP abstract defines automation in a task framework as capital replacing labour in tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task-based framework with new tasks as counterweight."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) bears on M02. The authors argue AI's labour effect is ambiguous (substitution, decision automation, augmentation, new tasks) and caution against inferring it from factory-automation research.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-17"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The conclusion cautions against extrapolating factory-automation results; it explicitly accepts direct capital-for-labour substitution in prediction tasks and therefore does not contest the criterion.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) articulates M02. The first of four direct effects in the authors' task framework is capital substituting for labour in prediction tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-18"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task framework with prediction and decision tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) articulates M02. The authors frame AI as a platform that can either automate labour's tasks or create new ones, and argue current development is biased toward automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-19"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task framework (automation versus new tasks)."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M02. The authors characterise prevailing researcher and economist views of AI as automation, then argue it need not be used mainly that way.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-20"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Describes others' framing; the authors themselves contest that automation must be AI's primary use.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) bears on M02. The paper's framework allocates tasks between capital and labour and defines automation as capital taking over labour's tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-21"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Automation in general; AI is not named in the quoted words.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task-based model; also includes new tasks, factor-augmenting change."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on M02. The editors treat automation as the third of three AI concepts and note that much empirical work on AI uses factory-robot data, while distinguishing automation from AI itself.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-22"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Treats task automation as one possible consequence of AI, not as AI's economic effect.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M02. Cowen characterises the recent literature as focused on capital-for-labour substitution and its domestic labour-market effects, then turns to neglected questions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-23"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes the literature's focus on substitution rather than itself modelling AI as task automation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-calvano-et-al-2020-algorithmic-pricing-collusion-b","subject":"calvano-et-al-2020-algorithmic-pricing-collusion","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Calvano et al., “Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion” (2020-10) bears on M02. The abstract motivates the study by algorithms replacing human pricing decisions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-10","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-24"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No task framework allocating tasks between capital and labour; focus is collusion, not labour.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M02. The authors deliberately do not classify exposure as automation versus augmentation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-25"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Exposure is not identified with machines taking over tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) articulates M02. Acemoglu models AI in a task framework where automation expands the set of tasks allocated to capital, alongside task complementarity, deepening and new tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m02-26"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task-based model with tasks allocated between capital and labour by comparative advantage."}}},{"id":"ec-m03-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox-a","subject":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brynjolfsson, Rock, Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) articulates M03. Argues that implementation lags, rather than false hopes, mismeasurement or redistribution, are the likeliest main explanation of the gap between AI expectations and slowing measured productivity. Concludes that AI breakthroughs have not yet diffused and their complementary changes depress measured productivity at first; the same conclusion calls AI the core of \"a new, economically important potential GPT\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m03-01","evidence-ec-m03-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox-b","subject":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brynjolfsson, Rock, Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) bears on M03. Formalises how unmeasured intangible AI-complementary investment first depresses and later inflates measured productivity growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m03-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The J-curve mechanism for intangible capital in general; AI is not named in the quoted words (the paper applies it to AI, see M03-01).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Unmeasured intangible complementary investment; toy-economy illustration."}}},{"id":"ec-m03-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) bears on M03. One of three possibilities raised against the slow recent productivity record, alongside mismeasurement and a singularity-type discontinuity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m03-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States a possible delay but does not call AI a general-purpose technology here; offered as one of three alternatives.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-b","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) bears on M03. Frames AI as the coming GPT and turns to policies to soften its displacement effects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m03-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Calls AI the new GPT but does not state that measured productivity gains lag adoption.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) articulates M03. Following the preceding paragraph's point that GPT co-invention \"is costly and slow\", infers that AI's productivity impact will lag, citing Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m03-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) bears on M03. The authors call AI a general-purpose technology because prediction is an input into decisions across many occupations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m03-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No statement that measured productivity gains lag adoption.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on M03. The editors summarise Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson (chapter 1), who argue AI is a GPT and attribute low measured productivity growth mainly to implementation lags from missing complementary innovations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m03-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"The GPT-plus-lag conjunction is attributed to chapter 1's authors; the introduction only reports it.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-furman-2019-automation-future-past-b","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) bears on M03. Furman attributes AI's small macroeconomic impact to the newness of recent advances and notes that inventions like electricity added productivity in successive waves.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m03-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Does not call AI a general-purpose technology or attribute the lag to complementary investment.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M03. The authors argue LLMs meet general-purpose-technology criteria of pervasiveness, improvement and complementary innovation. The authors note that co-invention requirements typical of general-purpose technologies may slow LLM diffusion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m03-10","evidence-ec-m03-11"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M03-10) No statement that measured productivity gains lag adoption. (M03-11) Refers to slowed diffusion, not to measured productivity lagging adoption.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m04-mullainathan-spiess-2017-machine-learning-econometric-b","subject":"mullainathan-spiess-2017-machine-learning-econometric","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Mullainathan and Spiess, “Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach” (2017) bears on M04. Mullainathan and Spiess characterise machine learning as a prediction tool distinct from econometric parameter estimation, for use in empirical economics.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m04-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Treats prediction as what ML does methodologically, not as AI's economic function, and draws no consequences from a fall in its cost.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence” (2018-01) articulates M04. Treats AI as prediction technology and models how better prediction changes the value of judgment, the process of determining payoffs. Makes the fall in the cost of prediction the premise of the analysis. Draws the consequence of better prediction for a complement, human judgment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m04-02","evidence-ec-m04-03","evidence-ec-m04-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(M04-03) Stated as an assumption of the model. (M04-04) Single-agent decision model with a risky and a safe action; holds while judgment is not too difficult; in complex environments results depend on whether prediction enables automated decision-making."}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2016-simple-economics-of-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2016-simple-economics-of-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “The Simple Economics of Machine Intelligence” (2016-11-17) articulates M04. Writing as economists, the authors treat machine intelligence as a prediction technology whose economic effect centres on a fall in the cost of prediction, and conclude that human judgment, a complement, becomes more valuable.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-11-17","basis":"publication","note":"Page date \"November 17, 2016\" (Harvard Business Review online)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m04-hbr-a","evidence-ec-m04-hbr-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-11-25","note":"Wayback capture of the article page."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1. An essay in a magazine by economists, which the collection’s rule counts as tier 1: the authors write \"as economists\", and the author notes on the captured page give their academic positions (cross-family check of 2026-10-25). It develops an economic argument with examples; it is not a reply, comment or debate turn."}}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) articulates M04. Recasts machine learning as a fall in the price of prediction and asks how policy shapes its diffusion and consequences. Defines prediction and summarises the authors' programme on consequences of cheaper prediction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m04-05","evidence-ec-m04-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-jep-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-jep","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019) articulates M04. The published abstract identifies AI with prediction and frames its labour impact through prediction and decision tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m04-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) articulates M04. The authors identify current AI with prediction and draw labour-market consequences from cheaper prediction for complementary decision tasks. The authors set prediction as a perfect complement to decisions, so falling prediction costs change returns to labour and capital in decision tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m04-08","evidence-ec-m04-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(M04-08) AI equated with machine-learning prediction; decisions and judgement as complements. (M04-09) Prediction and decision tasks as perfect complements."}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) articulates M04. The editors summarise their own chapter, which models AI as a fall in the cost of prediction and draws organisational consequences, including complementarity with human judgement.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m04-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."},"conditions":"AI identified with machine-learning prediction; judgement treated as a complement."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-automation-hearings-1955-other-witnesses-b","subject":"automation-hearings-1955-other-witnesses","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report, “Automation and Technological Change: Hearings (statements by non-economists)” (1955-10) bears on M05. Speaker: UAW-CIO report (Economic and Collective Bargaining Conference, 12 November 1954), submitted for the record by Walter P. Reuther, president, CIO (non-economist witness). The UAW report collects predictions of rapid automation to argue for an expanding economy built on broad purchasing power.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10","note":"Hearings held October 14–28, 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"A relayed prediction of a fivefold labour saving, not machines performing all tasks. The economist is unnamed.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Witnesses who are not economists (named per passage)."},"conditions":"Attributed to 'another economist'. It is conditional on the preceding claim that, if expenditure on automating industrial facilities kept rising, 'American industry may be fully automated within a decade'. That claim rests on figures from 'a prominent Harvard economist', also unnamed."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-b","subject":"buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Buckingham, “Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) bears on M05. Speaker: Walter S. Buckingham Jr., associate professor, Georgia Institute of Technology (economist). Buckingham says this picture 'has charged the imagination of some and struck terror in the hearts of others', and that it too is called automation. He then complains of a 'flood of verbiage' lacking quantitative evidence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed; the volume was printed by the GPO in 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"A reported speculation, not Buckingham's own claim; it concerns one enterprise working without labour, not machines performing every task, including new ones, more cheaply than people.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"Attributed to 'scientists, computer manufacturers, and science fiction writers', who have shown it 'hypothetically at least'. 'chain or products' is as printed in the OCR."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-c","subject":"buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Buckingham, “Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) contests M05. Speaker: Walter S. Buckingham Jr., associate professor, Georgia Institute of Technology (economist). Concludes his assessment of the employment criterion before turning to stability.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed; the volume was printed by the GPO in 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Buckingham gives limited automatable coverage and creation of new jobs as reasons against permanent mass unemployment."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"The next sentence qualifies it: there is 'no automatic regulator in the economic system that guarantees full employment', and the gains need continued expansion. He likens the economy to 'a rocket which must continue to accelerate or else fall from the sky'."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-c","subject":"nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nourse, “Statement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-28) contests M05. Speaker: Edwin G. Nourse, former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers (economist). Nourse contrasts the 'preponderant attitude of business executives' with labour officials' concerns and goes on to side with labour's call for study (p. 621).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-28","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Nourse endorses the business view of long-run job creation but qualifies it with severe adjustment costs."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"He adds at once that 'we need to study the fine print', given 'severe short-run dislocations, local catastrophes, and painful readjustments'."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-armer-1966-computer-aspects-of-technological-change-b","subject":"armer-1966-computer-aspects-of-technological-change","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Armer, “Computer Aspects of Technological Change (selection)” (1966) bears on M05. Speakers: Paul Armer, The RAND Corporation (computer specialist; not an economist), in a selection from a study prepared for the Commission; Paul Armer, The RAND Corporation, relaying Herbert A. Simon. Armer adopts Herbert A. Simon's distinction (The Shape of Automation, 1965) between technological and economic radicalism. Armer cites Simon, The Shape of Automation (New York: Harper & Row, 1965), as the source of the technological/economic radical-conservative distinction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the book; Armer (RAND Corporation) is a computer specialist, not an economist. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-05","evidence-ec-m05-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M05-05) A technological claim restricted to information-processing tasks. The author explicitly rejects the economic consequence (see the next record) and says nothing about relative cost or new tasks. (M05-06) Armer's paraphrase of Simon's technological forecast, not Simon's text. Armer reports Simon as an 'economic conservative', which would not meet M05's economic condition.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (computer specialist, RAND Corporation)."},"conditions":"(M05-05) 'in time'. He says many remaining problems 'are very difficult' and calls himself a technological radical 'somewhat closer to the center' than Simon. (M05-06) Simon's view as characterised by Armer."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-armer-1966-computer-aspects-of-technological-change-c","subject":"armer-1966-computer-aspects-of-technological-change","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Armer, “Computer Aspects of Technological Change (selection)” (1966) contests M05. Speaker: Paul Armer, The RAND Corporation (non-economist). Armer combines technological radicalism (computers able in time to do any information-processing task) with economic conservatism.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the book; Armer (RAND Corporation) is a computer specialist, not an economist. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Armer argues that full employment can survive computer substitution while requiring economic and social adjustment."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (computer specialist, RAND Corporation)."},"conditions":"He acknowledges that computers and automation cause serious problems needing economic, social and political adjustment."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-levitan-1966-new-directions-in-aid-of-the-poor-c","subject":"levitan-1966-new-directions-in-aid-of-the-poor","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Levitan, “New Directions in Aid of the Poor (selection)” (1966) contests M05. Speaker: Sar A. Levitan, The W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research (economist), selection 'New Directions in Aid of the Poor'. Levitan's priorities for anti-poverty policy include work relief and public service jobs such as school and health aides.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the book. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Levitan argues for unmet human-service and public-work demand against cybernation employment-obsolescence claims."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Economist author (Sar A. Levitan; established record as a labour economist)."},"conditions":"Made in support of government-supported (not make-work) job creation for those who cannot find private employment."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-b","subject":"technology-and-the-american-economy-1966","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, “Technology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I” (1966-02) bears on M05. Speaker: Howard R. Bowen, Commission chairman (economist), in a chairman's introduction stated not to be part of the official report. Bowen lists concerns about technology. The one 'perhaps most responsible for the establishment of the Commission' is the belief that technological change is a major source of unemployment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Report dated February 1966. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv) is stated not to be part of the official report. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"A reported fear, not endorsed. It does not speak of new tasks or relative cost.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Main Commission report: tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (most members were not economists; the chair Bowen and Solow were). Was tier 1. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"The ellipsis omits 'technological change would in the near future not only cause increasing unemployment, but that'."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-c","subject":"technology-and-the-american-economy-1966","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, “Technology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I” (1966-02) contests M05. Opening of the Commission's report, signed by all 14 members, including the economists Bowen and Solow. Concludes the Commission's opening argument that persistent post-Korea unemployment came from inadequate demand, not accelerated technology.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Report dated February 1966. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv) is stated not to be part of the official report. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-11","evidence-ec-m05-12"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The Commission rejects imminent employment-obsolescence and provides evidence on technological continuity and demand later in the report; the Commission links total employment to demand and purchasing power rather than equating job elimination with elimination of work."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Main Commission report: tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (most members were not economists; the chair Bowen and Solow were). Was tier 1. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"(M05-11) Also dissents from 'the other extreme view of complacency'. The ellipsis omits '— or at least the United States —'. (M05-12) Followed by: 'It is the continuous obligation of economic policy to match increases in productive potential with increases in purchasing power and demand.'."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-b","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) bears on M05. Nilsson treats the eventual performance by AI of the new jobs that AI itself creates as a matter of time, alongside his argument (pdf p. 6) that ever-cheaper AI 'labor' will replace human labour until its cost share is insignificant.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"An objection Nilsson relays (\"some might say\") before answering it, not his own claim.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-a","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) articulates M05. Applying a 'law of reduction', Nilsson argues that producers will replace human labour with cheaper AI in every activity, including the service and white-collar work to which labour has moved, and that too few nonautomatable services remain to base an economy on.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."},"conditions":"Assumes AI becomes cheaper than human labour across activities and that demand is finite."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M05. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Concluding remarks on the scenario results.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-15"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Agnostic on technological unemployment; says nothing of machines performing all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Scenarios are limited to computer-based automation and exclude other changes (agriculture, materials substitution) and 'any major break-throughs in computer technology'."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-b","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) bears on M05. The authors claim near-universal technical automatability beyond the engineering bottlenecks, but expect workers to move into tasks requiring creative and social intelligence (pdf p. 45).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Bottleneck tasks (creative and social intelligence) are assumed to remain with labour; no claim about cost of machines in all tasks or in newly created tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-autor-2015-why-are-there-still-so-many-jobs-c","subject":"autor-2015-why-are-there-still-so-many-jobs","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Autor, “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation” (2015) contests M05. Reflecting on AI and robotics, Autor expects workers to keep a comparative advantage in problem-solving, adaptability and creativity, against commentators who 'overstate the extent of machine substitution'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page: vol. 29, no. 3, Summer 2015. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-17"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States that workers retain a comparative advantage in some tasks without, in the abstract, analysing the premise that machines could become cheaper at all tasks."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) bears on M05. In the accelerationist case of the model, information capital substitutes so well for labour that all income eventually accrues to capital owners, the reverse of Keynes's 'euthanasia of the rentier'. Nordhaus states that the Singularity would require AI to 'encompass all human activities' and notes that non-routine tasks change in response to AI, leaving immunity of other tasks 'an open question'. Nordhaus quotes Simon's 1965 statement of technological radicalism and contrasts it with Simon's moderate productivity expectation. Nordhaus reports that Simon, despite his capability forecast, did not expect accelerating productivity growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-18","evidence-ec-m05-19","evidence-ec-m05-41","evidence-ec-m05-42"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"(M05-18) A capital share tending to one does not imply every present and future task is performed more cheaply by machines; the continuation explicitly retains well-paid workers. (M05-19) Raises the role of evolving (new) tasks but neither asserts nor rules out machines performing them more cheaply; treats it as an empirical question of substitutability. (M05-41) A relayed capability forecast by Simon (1965), not a claim about cost relative to labour; in the same passage Nordhaus reports that Simon expected only a \"continuing, but not greatly accelerated, rise in productivity\". (M05-42) A relayed productivity expectation; it does not address cost relative to labour in all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."},"conditions":"Elasticity of substitution between information capital and labour bounded above one; rapid capital-augmenting technical change."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment” (2016-05) articulates M05. States the full-automation case of the model, in which automation keeps pace with task creation so that labour becomes redundant; the authors immediately contrast it with the stable balanced-growth case on which they focus.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2016, Revised June 2017\". Journal version: AER 108(6), 2018, pp. 1488–1542 (abstract page aer2018-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-20"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2017-06","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the May 2016 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Full model with directed research toward automation versus new tasks; holds when the long-run rental rate of capital is very low relative to labour (in the formal results, a sufficiently low discount rate), giving a balanced growth path in which all tasks are produced with capital. Otherwise an interior, stable balanced growth path."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment” (2016-05) bears on M05. Replies to Leontief's horse analogy (quoted earlier in the paragraph and attributed to him) by positing labour's comparative advantage in new tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2016, Revised June 2017\". Journal version: AER 108(6), 2018, pp. 1488–1542 (abstract page aer2018-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-21"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Assumes that newly created tasks are ones in which labour has a comparative advantage; the passage answers the redundancy concern rather than modelling machines performing new tasks.","attested":{"date":"2017-06","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the May 2016 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Model assumption: labour has comparative advantage in new, more complex tasks; employment and labour share stable if new-task creation continues."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates M05. Models the case in which A.I. replaces people in all tasks to show how growth could explode; the authors then list objections (automation limits, search limits, Baumol bottlenecks).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-22"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Thought experiments: all tasks in goods production automated (AK growth) or in idea production automated (with φ > 0, a finite-time singularity). Automation is exogenous; the costs of machines versus labour are not modelled as a comparison of task-level prices."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on M05. Treats complete automation as an open, debated question and names incomplete automation as a bottleneck to explosive growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-23"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Leaves open whether machines can perform all essential tasks; neither asserts nor denies the possibility.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Conditional: if some essential tasks remain non-automated, the labour-free singularities do not occur."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates M05. Describes a transition in which falling machine costs make machines a cheaper substitute for all human labour; with frictionless capital adjustment the human wage may be unchanged while the labour share goes to zero.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-24"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Machine labour modelled as a perfect substitute for human labour; the cost of producing machines falls over time. The passage summarises the authors' companion paper (Korinek and Stiglitz 2017)."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) bears on M05. Identifies new labour-intensive tasks as the main force offsetting automation and keeping growth balanced.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-25"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Assumes new tasks in which labour has comparative advantage; does not model machines performing new tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"New tasks are defined as ones where labour has comparative advantage relative to machines."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence” (2018-01) bears on M05. Notes that existing automation models (here Acemoglu and Restrepo 2017) rely on tasks that only labour can perform, and offers a prediction-based approach instead.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-26"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Identifies and questions the new-tasks assumption in existing models but does not itself model machines performing all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-b","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) bears on M05. Summarises a prevailing view that AI will perform most new tasks too, so net displacement will exceed past GPTs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-27"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports what the author calls \"the consensual view\" and \"the prevailing view\" at the conference; the author does not adopt it.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-c","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) contests M05. Concludes, from history, that human obsolescence is not to be presumed, while expecting many occupations to vanish.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-28"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Relies on the historical record of failed dismal prophecies; it does not address whether AI could perform newly created tasks more cheaply than labour."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment” (2018-06) articulates M05. A conditional model result: under a low relative cost of capital, all tasks (including those created later) end up automated; the abstract presents the alternative stable balanced-growth case as the other outcome.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-29"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."},"conditions":"Full model with endogenous capital accumulation and directed research toward automation and new tasks; full automation only if the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low. Otherwise a stable balanced growth path in which automation and new tasks go together."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us-b","subject":"benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Benzell et al., “Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement” (2015-02) bears on M05. The model splits output into an automatable good produced by capital and code and a non-automatable service ('prayer') produced only by labour; the introduction (pdf p. 3) says it is 'hard to think of hitherto human tasks that smart machines can't already or won't soon do'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2015, Revised October 2018\". The retrieved PDF is the October 2018 revision, so its wording is attested from 2018-10 only. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-30"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The model keeps a non-automatable labour-only sector, so machines do not perform all tasks; new tasks are not modelled.","attested":{"date":"2018-10","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the February 2015 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Corn produced with capital and code; prayer produced with high- and low-tech labour only."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) bears on M05. The authors deny that current machine learning amounts to general intelligence able to substitute for all of human cognition.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-31"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes current machine learning's scope; does not address whether machines could eventually perform all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M05. The authors warn that automation without new tasks would depress labour demand while denying an imminent end of work.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-32"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Considers automation without new tasks, not machines also performing new tasks more cheaply; rejects near-term end of work.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) bears on M05. The authors acknowledge new tasks in which capital is advantaged but restrict their analysis to labour-intensive new tasks. The authors reject both imminent end-of-work claims and automatic labour gains, making the future depend on the balance of automation and new tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-33","evidence-ec-m05-34"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M05-33) Recognises capital-advantaged new tasks but excludes them; does not consider machines performing all new tasks more cheaply. (M05-34) Addresses whether the end of work is imminent, not whether machines could eventually do all tasks including new ones.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Model assumes labour has comparative and absolute advantage in higher-indexed tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on M05. The editors name artificial general intelligence that equals or exceeds human intelligence as one of three AI concepts in the volume and argue its economic consequences are worth exploring regardless of timing.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-35"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Raises machines surpassing human intelligence as a topic; does not state or model machines performing all tasks, including new ones, more cheaply than labour.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-c","subject":"stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Stevenson, “Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning” (2019-05) contests M05. Stevenson reconciles divided expert views by distinguishing a long run in which new jobs arise from a short run of disruption.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-36"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Asserts that new jobs for human skills arise in the long run without engaging the premise that machines could also perform those new tasks more cheaply."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-furman-2019-automation-future-past-c","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) contests M05. Furman rejects mass unemployability and relocates the concern to prolonged transitions as displaced workers re-match to new jobs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-37"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Relies on centuries of experience that new jobs appear, without engaging the premise that machines might perform newly created tasks more cheaply."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M05. Cowen imagines a world where labour scarcity matters little and software generates and implements new products, so land and energy become the binding inputs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-38"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Imagines software generating new products and labour mattering little, but does not state machines perform all tasks more cheaply than labour.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on M05. Acemoglu lists a revolutionary, near-singularity scenario among four possible macro effects, says it cannot be ruled out, and excludes it from his analysis. Acemoglu argues that better wage and productivity outcomes depend on AI creating new tasks for workers, which he says is feasible in theory but not the industry's current focus.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-39","evidence-ec-m05-40"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M05-39) Acknowledges a transformative scenario as possible but does not state or model machines doing all tasks, including new ones, more cheaply. (M05-40) Presupposes that new tasks in which labour is productive can be created; does not consider machines outcompeting labour in them.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","subject":"buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Buckingham, “Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) articulates M06a. Speaker: Walter S. Buckingham Jr., associate professor, Georgia Institute of Technology (economist). Buckingham classifies eight direct effects of automation, starting with abolished production jobs and fewer new jobs that need higher skills. Citing a Chicago dissertation by David G. Osborn (12 automation cases, average 63.4 per cent reduction in employee requirements) and industry figures, Buckingham argues that displacement takes the form of reduced hiring and 'hidden unemployment of downgrading'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed; the volume was printed by the GPO in 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-01","evidence-ec-m06a-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"(M06a-01) These are listed as direct effects. He goes on to argue that long-run mass unemployment is not to be feared (p. 35). (M06a-02) He says there have been no mass layoffs because automation has been slow enough for normal turnover to disguise displacement."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-diebold-1955-automation-condensation-a","subject":"diebold-1955-automation-condensation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Diebold, “A Condensation of the Book Automation, in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) articulates M06a. Under “Labor resistance” the condensation says that when automation makes a specific human skill obsolete it works a hardship on the individual worker who is displaced.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Printed with Diebold’s statement on the hearing day of 14 October 1955. A condensation of his book Automation (copyright 1952) by the Controllership Foundation, inserted, he says, \"with a few minor revisions\"; the book’s wording was not compared, so the wording is dated by the hearings, not by the book. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-diebold-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Witness who is not an economist: John Diebold, management consultant (president, John Diebold & Associates), author of the condensed book."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","subject":"nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nourse, “Statement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-28) articulates M06a. Speaker: Edwin G. Nourse, former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers (economist). Nourse asks whether automation will disturb the price-and-income relations behind the postwar prosperity, and lists its effects on wages, capital, costs, prices, profits and taxes.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-28","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"Mixed effects: the sentence continues that wage rates will be 'upgraded here and downgraded there'."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-a","subject":"technology-and-the-american-economy-1966","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, “Technology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I” (1966-02) articulates M06a. The Commission separates aggregate unemployment (demand) from displacement of particular workers (technology among other changes).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Report dated February 1966. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv) is stated not to be part of the official report. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Main Commission report: tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (most members were not economists; the chair Bowen and Solow were). Was tier 1. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"Distinguished from the general level of unemployment, which the Commission attributes to inadequate aggregate demand."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-employment-impact-of-technological-change-1966-b","subject":"employment-impact-of-technological-change-1966","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, “The Employment Impact of Technological Change. Appendix Volume II, Technology and the American Economy” (1966-02) bears on M06a. Speaker: Garth L. Mangum, Executive Secretary (Preface), summarising James R. Bright's study. The preface summarises the volume's 11 studies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Appendix volume dated February 1966; preface by Garth L. Mangum. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"A finding on skill content, not on wages, labour share or employment. It is a summary, and Bright's study (Part 3, p. 203) is not in the retrieved OCR.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Appendix volume of the same Commission, with a preface by the economist Garth L. Mangum. Economist-written appendices are tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12; each study is tiered by its own author (Mansfield, Newhouse tier 1; Lynn tier 2)."},"conditions":"Based on case studies of 'actual installations of automatic equipment'. The preface adds that Horowitz and Herrnstadt found 'no significant changes in skill requirements in general' between the 1949 and 1960 DOT editions."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-a","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) articulates M06a. From the cost-reduction argument and the identity between labour costs and labour income, Nilsson concludes that labour's share of income will fall to a small fraction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-a","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) articulates M06a. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). The authors find that automation's effects are specific to types of work, with professionals rising and clerical workers falling sharply.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Under Scenario S3, by 2000, as a share of labour requirements. Professionals rise to nearly 20 per cent."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-a","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) articulates M06a. The authors argue, against the Cobb-Douglas presumption that technical change raises all factor returns, that better machines can lower unskilled wages.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."},"conditions":"Elasticity of substitution between machines and unskilled labour high relative to that between the intermediate and skilled labour."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates M06a. Extending the growth model to heterogeneous labour, Nordhaus shows that if unskilled labour is a perfect substitute for information capital its wage falls with capital prices; with a reservation wage its employment approaches zero.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."},"conditions":"Unskilled labour a perfect substitute for information capital; skilled labour highly but imperfectly substitutable."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment” (2016-05) articulates M06a. Model result that automation lowers employment and the labour share and may lower wages.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2016, Revised June 2017\". Journal version: AER 108(6), 2018, pp. 1488–1542 (abstract page aer2018-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2017-06","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the May 2016 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Static model, fixed capital, exogenous technology; new tasks have the opposite effects; in the dynamic model the labour share still falls with automation while long-run real wages rise."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on M06a. Argues that Baumol's cost disease can keep the labour share substantial even as automation advances.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-11"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A model in which the labour share stays substantial despite nearly complete automation; it does not state a fall for some workers, though the paper also notes a possible prolonged high-capital-share period.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Elasticity of substitution across tasks below one; automation exogenous; sufficient conditions for balanced growth with a constant capital share well below 100%."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates M06a. Concludes that without redistribution, AI and other worker-replacing change can lower both labour's share and workers' absolute welfare.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-12"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Absence of redistribution or full insurance against innovation risk."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) articulates M06a. Even with offsetting forces, automation lowers the labour share.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Countervailing productivity, capital-accumulation and deepening effects present; absent new labour-intensive tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Modeling Automation” (2018-05) articulates M06a. Contrasts task automation with factor-augmenting change: the former always lowers the labour share.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-05","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AEA Papers and Proceedings (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task-based model; the abstract adds that automation \"can reduce the equilibrium wage (for realistic parameter values)\"."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment” (2018-06) articulates M06a. In the static model automation lowers employment and the labour share and may reduce wages, while new tasks push the other way.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-15"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."},"conditions":"Static version with fixed capital and exogenous technology; creation of new tasks has the opposite effects."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy-a","subject":"furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman and Seamans, “AI and the Economy” (2018-06) articulates M06a. Opens the labour-market policy section by noting that AI may worsen declining participation and rising inequality.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) articulates M06a. Gives a rising capital share as one of two reasons AI might increase inequality, with skill bias the other.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-17"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Conditional on AI being a new, efficient form of capital."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us-a","subject":"benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Benzell et al., “Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement” (2015-02) articulates M06a. The authors state that their model predicts a long-run fall in labour's share as code accumulates, and point to the measured decline in Section 6.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2015, Revised October 2018\". The retrieved PDF is the October 2018 revision, so its wording is attested from 2018-10 only. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-18"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-10","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the February 2015 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Decline in the code depreciation rate in an OLG model with rival, excludable code (baseline case)."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019) articulates M06a. The abstract states that automation always lowers the labour share in value added.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-19"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."},"conditions":"Displacement effect, absent offsetting new tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) articulates M06a. The authors argue that workers whose core skill is prediction may lose, while those whose core skill complements prediction may gain.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-20"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) articulates M06a. The authors attribute stagnating labour demand, a falling labour share and rising inequality to technological change biased toward automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-21"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) articulates M06a. Within the task framework, automation's displacement effect lowers the labour share and can lower labour demand, offset by new tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-22"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Holding new-task creation fixed; reinstatement from new tasks counterbalances."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-a","subject":"stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Stevenson, “Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning” (2019-05) articulates M06a. Stevenson says the real uncertainty is short-run disruption, with some workers harmed by falling demand for their skills.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-23"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-furman-2019-automation-future-past-a","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) articulates M06a. Furman argues that, like past innovations, AI may further reduce participation and employment, particularly for less-skilled men, through slow re-matching of displaced workers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-24"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M06a. Cowen speculates that AI could harm poorer countries by removing wage-differential reasons to locate production there, cutting off industrialisation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-25"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns poorer countries' path to industrialisation, not wages, employment or the labour share as such.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."},"conditions":"AI and other technologies progressing so firms hardly employ labour."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) articulates M06a. Using Acemoglu and Restrepo (2022) general-equilibrium estimates, Acemoglu finds AI's wage effects more evenly spread than earlier automation but negative for low-education women and widening the capital–labour income gap.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06a-26"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Exposure measures from Eloundou et al. with easy/hard task distinction; propagation matrix from 1980–2016."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-b","subject":"buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Buckingham, “Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) bears on M06b. Speaker: Walter S. Buckingham Jr., associate professor, Georgia Institute of Technology (economist). Buckingham argues that automation serves consumer satisfaction, efficiency and progressiveness, but that mass purchasing power must be maintained. He also notes that automation may not create the waves of secondary investment that the automobile did.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed; the volume was printed by the GPO in 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States a distributional condition (sharing through wages and prices) but proposes no redistribution, tax or compensating public policy.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"Framed as a 'danger spot' for a wealthy economy that 'must continue to be reasonably equalitarian because its prosperity depends on mass purchasing power'."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-b","subject":"nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nourse, “Statement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-28) bears on M06b. Speaker: Edwin G. Nourse, former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers (economist). Nourse rejects the view that technological progress 'takes care of its own economic problems'. Responding to members' and staff questions on automation-specific legislation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-28","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-02","evidence-ec-m06b-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M06b-02) A general call for generous policies to assimilate technological change, not a specific compensating policy. (M06b-04) Answers whether to legislate on 'the problems created by so-called automation'. He rejects legislation that would 'curb or redirect' discovery and its application, not compensating policy as such.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"(M06b-02) Argued against the 'comfortable formula' that falling prices automatically restore jobs. That formula presupposes perfect competition and labour mobility, which do not hold in an economy of large corporations, unions and administered prices. (M06b-04) He immediately adds that every money bill, tax revision and regulatory measure gives 'punchcard or tape instructions' to the economy, and that general public policy should be framed accordingly."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","subject":"nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nourse, “Statement (former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-28) articulates M06b. Speaker: Edwin G. Nourse, former Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers (economist). Nourse suggests that adoption might come closer to the optimum if companies had to provide for workers' costs of change, and lists severance pay and reimbursement for time lost or skills scrapped as devices to explore.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-28","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"In the same sentence he says the individual need not be 'carried around on a pillow' and that government should not be 'the benevolent grandmother'. He calls for study of 'properly distributing the burdens'."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-diebold-1955-automation-condensation-a","subject":"diebold-1955-automation-condensation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Diebold, “A Condensation of the Book Automation, in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) articulates M06b. The condensation says that responsibility for retraining and restoring the earning power of displaced workers lies with management as well as with the worker, and that accepting a fair share of it will ease the labour problem that automation brings.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Printed with Diebold’s statement on the hearing day of 14 October 1955. A condensation of his book Automation (copyright 1952) by the Controllership Foundation, inserted, he says, \"with a few minor revisions\"; the book’s wording was not compared, so the wording is dated by the hearings, not by the book. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-diebold-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Witness who is not an economist: John Diebold, management consultant (president, John Diebold & Associates), author of the condensed book."},"conditions":"Presented as a growing realization among businessmen; the next sentence says that accepting a fair share of responsibility for a cooperative solution will ease the labour problem."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-reuther-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","subject":"reuther-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Reuther, “Statement (president, Congress of Industrial Organizations), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-17) articulates M06b. Reuther urges the subcommittee to consider earlier Social Security payments for workers forced into retirement before 65 because technological changes have taken their jobs and their age keeps them from finding other work.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-17","note":"Hearing day of the statement: \"Monday, October 17, 1955\" (printed p. 97), as in the order of appearances. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-reuther-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Witness who is not an economist: Walter P. Reuther, president of the Congress of Industrial Organizations."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-a","subject":"technology-and-the-american-economy-1966","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, “Technology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I” (1966-02) articulates M06b. One of the Commission's numbered recommendations, alongside public service employment ('employer of last resort'), compensatory education and a computerised job-matching system.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Report dated February 1966. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv) is stated not to be part of the official report. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Main Commission report: tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (most members were not economists; the chair Bowen and Solow were). Was tier 1. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"'That floor should include both improvements in wage-related benefits and a broader system of income maintenance for those families unable to provide for themselves.'."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-b","subject":"technology-and-the-american-economy-1966","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, “Technology and the American Economy: Report of the National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress, Volume I” (1966-02) bears on M06b. The Commission recommends going beyond reform of existing social insurance to 'wholly new approaches to the problem of income maintenance'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Report dated February 1966. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv) is stated not to be part of the official report. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Here the instrument is a response to poverty and the defects of means-tested assistance; this paragraph does not tie it to automation.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Main Commission report: tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (most members were not economists; the chair Bowen and Solow were). Was tier 1. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"'if found feasible', to be approached 'by stages'. The report names Milton Friedman, Robert Lampman and James Tobin as authors of concrete proposals."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-a","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) articulates M06b. Rejecting 'Luddite' obstruction and make-work jobs, Nilsson favours decoupling income from work, reviewing transfer payments, Kelso and Adler's broadened capital ownership and Albus's National Mutual Fund.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M06b. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). The authors call their study 'a first systematic albeit partial glance' at employment prospects nearly twenty years ahead.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Names income distribution as a next research step (citing Duchin 1984); proposes no redistribution or compensating policy.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Part of a list of 'next steps in our agenda', with a closed dynamic model determining consumption and employment together."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-a","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) articulates M06b. Rejecting 'smashing the machines', the authors propose intergenerational tax-and-transfer policy (in the model, a wealth levy on the old funding transfers to the young) to make all generations gain.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."},"conditions":"Model illustration: unanticipated permanent rise in u from 1 to 10; government levies part of the machine stock and transfers its returns."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-pratt-2015-cambrian-explosion-robotics-b","subject":"pratt-2015-cambrian-explosion-robotics","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pratt, “Is a Cambrian Explosion Coming for Robotics?” (2015) bears on M06b. Pratt, a robotics researcher, reviews cloud robotics and deep learning and announces suggestions for addressing economic difficulties from robotics.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The abstract does not say what the 'ways to address potential difficulties' are or tie them to distributional effects.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue), so tier 1 although Pratt is a roboticist, not an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates M06b. Ties the case for redistribution to the distributional losses of worker-replacing technological change. Argues that policy, including non-distortionary taxation, can compensate those who lose from AI, even in a singularity case. Names patent length and capital taxation as second-best redistribution instruments for losses from worker-replacing machines.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-11","evidence-ec-m06b-12","evidence-ec-m06b-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(M06b-11) \"Such intervention\" refers to full insurance or \"the right form of redistribution\" named in the preceding sentence. (M06b-12) Conditions stated in the body: e.g., a fixed, irreproducible factor that captures the gains and can be taxed without distortion; or low supply elasticity of capital for capital taxation. (M06b-13) Lump-sum transfers unavailable; capital supply elasticity sufficiently low."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) bears on M06b. Attributes part of the productivity slowdown to automation pushed beyond the social optimum by the tax treatment of capital and labour-market rents.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Identifies a tax bias as a cause of excessive automation and slow productivity growth; it is not argued here as compensation for distributional effects.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-a","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) articulates M06b. Calls for policies (education, professionalising care work, steering technical change) to ameliorate AI's detrimental effects on displaced workers. Argues that mass displacement and ageing may require governments to manage transitions, not merely compensate losers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-15","evidence-ec-m06b-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Conditional on AI triggering mass displacement alongside population ageing."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy-a","subject":"furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman and Seamans, “AI and the Economy” (2018-06) articulates M06b. Weighs UBI against EITC expansion and wage subsidies as responses to AI-related labour disruption, favouring the latter.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-17"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) articulates M06b. Concludes that AI's consequences for jobs, inequality and competition call for education policy, the safety net and antitrust.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-18"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us-a","subject":"benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Benzell et al., “Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement” (2015-02) articulates M06b. The conclusion argues that redistributive fiscal policy (taxing high-skilled workers who gain and investing the proceeds) can prevent immiseration, while blunt policies such as restricting labour supply or weakening IP can backfire.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2015, Revised October 2018\". The retrieved PDF is the October 2018 revision, so its wording is attested from 2018-10 only. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-19"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-10","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the February 2015 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Immiseration requires low saving propensity and low substitutability between capital and code."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M06b. The authors identify tax treatment favouring capital as a distortion pushing technology toward automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-20"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns tax incentives for automation, not compensating policy for distributional effects.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) bears on M06b. The authors suggest policies that remove tax preferences for capital and rebalance technology towards new tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-21"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Proposes redirecting technology, not redistribution or compensation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-b","subject":"stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Stevenson, “Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning” (2019-05) bears on M06b. Stevenson argues the gains from AI could compensate losers, but whether they are redistributed depends on politics; she notes current failure to redistribute technological gains.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-22"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Does not argue for a specific redistributive or compensating policy.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-furman-2019-automation-future-past-a","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) articulates M06b. Furman lists policy responses to AI's labour-market effects, including training and a more progressive tax system, while rejecting replacement of the safety net with a UBI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-23"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-a","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) articulates M06b. Cowen suggests that if AI makes outputs very cheap, wealth-based transfers could complement education and training as policy responses to automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-24"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."},"conditions":"Very high productivity and very low output prices from AI."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M06b. Cowen accepts a reason for larger cash transfers in AI-displacement scenarios but warns, citing resource-rich monarchies, that mass redistribution may create political problems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-25"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Weighs, rather than argues for, a compensating policy.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M06b. The authors call for policy preparedness and point to prior work on education, training and safety-net reform, but decline to recommend specific policies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-26"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No specific redistributive or compensating policy is argued for.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on M06b. Acemoglu argues that new-task creation with better wage outcomes may need new institutions and regulation and a reorientation of the AI industry.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m06b-27"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Calls for policy to redirect technology rather than redistribution or compensation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-a","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) articulates M07. The authors estimate occupations' susceptibility to computerisation by matching engineering bottleneck variables in O*NET task descriptions with a classifier trained on hand-labelled occupations. The headline estimate: 47 percent of US employment falls in occupations with high probability of computerisation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m07-01","evidence-ec-m07-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-furman-2019-automation-future-past-b","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) bears on M07. Furman reports the range of published estimates of jobs at risk of automation and emphasises the wage/skill gradient of exposure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m07-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports others' exposure estimates; makes no estimate of its own.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-a","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) articulates M07. The authors estimate the share of US workers whose occupational tasks are exposed to LLMs, from O*NET task descriptions rated by humans and GPT-4. The authors describe their method: rating task exposure using a rubric applied by human annotators and GPT-4.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m07-04","evidence-ec-m07-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."},"conditions":"Exposure measure β (direct plus half of tool-dependent exposure); US occupations; GPT-4-assisted labels."}}},{"id":"ec-m07-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M07. The authors caution that exposure measures technical feasibility, not realised productivity or automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m07-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A caveat on the measure rather than an estimate.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on M07. Acemoglu converts Eloundou et al.'s task exposure measure into a wage-bill-weighted share of US labour tasks exposed to AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m07-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Re-aggregates another text's task-based exposure estimates rather than measuring exposure from task descriptions itself.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m08-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M08. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Headline finding of the report.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m08-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A labour-saving estimate over 20 years (to 2000), not a productivity or GDP estimate over about ten years, and it concerns computer-based automation, not AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Model-based projection (dynamic input-output model, 89 sectors, 53 occupations, scenario S3). The abstract adds consumption growth of about 2% a year through the 1980s and 0.5-1.1% through the 1990s, assuming full use of the projected labour force."}}},{"id":"ec-m08-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox-b","subject":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brynjolfsson, Rock, Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) bears on M08. Illustrates that a single AI application could add about 0.17 percentage points a year to US labour productivity growth over a decade. Second worked example showing that individual AI applications could add measurably to aggregate labour productivity over about a decade.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m08-02","evidence-ec-m08-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M08-02) An illustrative calculation for one AI application (autonomous vehicles), not an estimate of AI's aggregate effect. (M08-03) An illustrative calculation for one application (call centres), not an aggregate estimate.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(M08-02) Assumes drivers needed for current workload fall from 3.5 million to 1.5 million out of 122 million private nonfarm employment, over a supposed 10-year transition; excludes complementary gains. (M08-03) Assumes AI handles 60–70% of calls and reduces call-centre workers (about 2.2 million in 2015) by 60%."}}},{"id":"ec-m08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-04-05) articulates M08. Acemoglu applies a Hulten's-theorem task framework to exposure and cost-saving estimates to bound AI's ten-year TFP effect, against much larger forecasts (Goldman Sachs, McKinsey). Allowing for hard-to-learn tasks where AI gains are smaller lowers the ten-year TFP bound. Acemoglu converts the TFP bounds to GDP effects under two investment-response assumptions. The author-hosted version of 5 April 2024 gives no more than 0.71% over ten years, and less than 0.55% allowing for hard tasks; the NBER version of May 2024 gives 0.66% and 0.53%.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-05","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the author-hosted version: \"April 5, 2024\". The NBER version (cover \"May 2024\") gives different figures; its passages are dated May 2024 by their source."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m08-apr-a","evidence-ec-m08-apr-b","evidence-ec-m08-04","evidence-ec-m08-05","evidence-ec-m08-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the author-hosted PDF; the current copy retrieved on 2026-10-25 is byte-identical to it. The May 2024 passages are known from a current copy of the NBER version."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(April version) Task-level cost savings from existing exposure and productivity estimates; the second figure adds the author’s easy/hard-task assumptions. (M08-04) Gains from cost savings at task level via automation and task complementarity only; excludes new tasks, deepening of automation and science-transforming effects; US economy. (M08-05) As above, plus easy/hard task classification assumptions. (M08-06) Modest investment response (capital rising in proportion to TFP) versus an investment boom like earlier automation."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-automation-hearings-1955-other-witnesses-b","subject":"automation-hearings-1955-other-witnesses","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Subcommittee on Economic Stabilization of the Joint Committee on the Economic Report, “Automation and Technological Change: Hearings (statements by non-economists)” (1955-10) bears on M09. Speaker: John Diebold, president, John Diebold & Associates (management consultant; not an economist witness). Diebold lists basic questions automation poses for 'economic theory, the way we measure productivity', and for cost accounting.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10","note":"Hearings held October 14–28, 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A non-economist's call for economists to rethink theory in light of automation, not a description of the state of economics. It concerns automation in general, not machine intelligence.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Witnesses who are not economists (named per passage)."},"conditions":"Follows his question whether it is still meaningful to measure productivity by direct labour as the direct-labour content of manufacturing falls."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-b","subject":"buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Buckingham, “Statement (testifying as an economist), in Automation and Technological Change: Hearings” (1955-10-14) bears on M09. Speaker: Walter S. Buckingham Jr., associate professor (industrial management), Georgia Institute of Technology; testifying as an economist. Introducing his written statement, Buckingham says he is neither an engineer nor an athlete and speaks for himself as an economist. The chairman introduces him as associate professor of industrial management who had spoken at the CIO automation conference in April 1955.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed; the volume was printed by the GPO in 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Self-identification only; it establishes that an economist was the subcommittee's opening analytical witness on automation in October 1955, not what economics as a field held.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"He adds that he speaks 'for myself only'."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-bowen-mangum-1966-automation-and-economic-progress-b","subject":"bowen-mangum-1966-automation-and-economic-progress","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bowen and Mangum, “Automation and Economic Progress” (1966) bears on M09. Speaker: Howard R. Bowen and Garth L. Mangum, editors (Editors' Introduction). The editors explain the Commission's origins in the persistent unemployment after the Korean conflict. They define automation technically as electronic feedback control of mechanical processes, which 'in common parlance' became a byword for anything reducing employment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966","basis":"publication","note":"Copyright 1966. A condensation of the Commission report with selections from the supplementary studies. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Describes the early-1960s policy debate on unemployment, not economics as a research field or machine intelligence.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Book edited by two economists (Bowen, Mangum)."},"conditions":"Alongside the 'structural unemployment' and 'deficiency of aggregate demand' hypotheses."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-mansfield-1966-technological-change-b","subject":"mansfield-1966-technological-change","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Mansfield, “Technological Change: Measurement, Determinants, and Diffusion” (1966-02) bears on M09. Speaker: Edwin Mansfield, University of Pennsylvania (economist). Mansfield reviews output-per-man-hour evidence (Clague and Greenberg, Kendrick and Sato, CEA) for acceleration.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the appendix volume. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Shows that economists were debating whether automation-era technical change was faster, but is not a statement about machine intelligence as a research topic.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Economist author (Edwin Mansfield; established record as an economist)."},"conditions":"'and it is equally possible to find statements asserting the opposite'. He quotes Diebold and DuBridge (non-economists) for the opposite view."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-b","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) bears on M09. Nilsson records that he consulted economists (Leontief, Duchin, Simon, Solow) and that Solow doubted his premises; the body sets Simon's and Leontief's opposing views against each other.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports one economist's reaction; not a self-description of the field as new or neglected.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M09. Speakers: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists), Institute for Economic Analysis, New York University; Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Opening of the 1984 NSF-funded final report's abstract. Scope limitation in the report's summary chapter.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-06","evidence-ec-m09-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-06) Characterises the literature as divided, not new or neglected. The subject is computer-based automation, not machine intelligence as such. (M09-07) Names AI-type capabilities only to exclude them from the modelled scenarios. It is evidence that a 1984 economic study scoped machine intelligence out, not that it analysed it.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"(M09-06) The authors argue that policy should rest on 'concrete, detailed analysis' rather than opinion. (M09-07) The authors say they 'explicitly excluded from our scenarios any major' … 'break-throughs in computer technology that might affect significant numbers of workers before the year 2000' (the sentence runs from p. 1.32 to p. 1.34 across the Figure 1.4 page)."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-b","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) bears on M09. The authors characterise their profession as reluctant to treat machines as competitors for labour; elsewhere (pdf p. 7) they attribute this to the record of real wage growth and reliance on Cobb-Douglas production functions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns machines and automation in general, not machine intelligence as a research topic; no claim about when the field engaged it.","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-b","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) bears on M09. The authors present their estimate as filling a gap in the literature on recent technological progress and employment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A gap claim about one kind of quantification, not a description of the field as new.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-mokyr-vickers-ziebarth-2015-technological-anxiety-b","subject":"mokyr-vickers-ziebarth-2015-technological-anxiety","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Mokyr, Vickers, Ziebarth, “The History of Technological Anxiety and the Future of Economic Growth: Is This Time Different?” (2015) bears on M09. Mokyr, Vickers and Ziebarth survey economists' historical views on technological unemployment, moral effects of technology and stagnation, and compare them with current concerns.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns economists' past views of technology and machinery in general, not machine intelligence; no self-description of the field as new or neglected.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) bears on M09. Nordhaus notes the scarcity of macroeconomic work on accelerating growth from computation and AI, apart from endogenous-growth curiosities and Simon's earlier analysis. Introducing computer scientists' views of AI and superintelligence, Nordhaus signals that these ideas lie outside economists' usual frame. Nordhaus credits Simon's 1965 book with a macroeconomic analysis of computerisation based on the factor-price frontier, and criticises its assumption of a constant capital share.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-11","evidence-ec-m09-12","evidence-ec-m09-35"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-11) The claim is about singularity in modern macroeconomics, after a substantive account of Simon; it cannot establish recent entry of machine intelligence generally. (M09-12) Describes economists' unfamiliarity with the material, not explicitly the field as new or neglected. (M09-35) A 2015 economist's account of earlier economic analysis of computerisation, not a description of the field as new; it bears on M09 as counter-context to an \"only recently\" reading.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race Between Machine and Man: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares and Employment” (2016-05) bears on M09. After citing concerns that robotics and AI will leave workers unable to compete, the authors say no comprehensive framework for these effects exists.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2016, Revised June 2017\". Journal version: AER 108(6), 2018, pp. 1488–1542 (abstract page aer2018-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A single self-description of a gap in theory, not a dated record of the field; it does not say economists ignored the topic.","attested":{"date":"2017-06","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the May 2016 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on M09. Presents the paper as agenda-setting for research on AI and growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Implies the agenda is still to be shaped but does not state that the topic was neglected.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox-b","subject":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brynjolfsson, Rock, Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) bears on M09. Contrasts technologist optimism with the productivity pessimism the authors attribute to economists and statisticians, and argues both can be right.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-15"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Characterises economists' outlook on technology and growth, not the field's engagement with machine intelligence as a topic.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) bears on M09. Argues economists must say how gains from AI can be shared, not merely that they could be.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Criticises a habitual stance of economists rather than describing the field's engagement with AI as recent or neglected.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) bears on M09. Opens the conclusion by saying the debate on automation and the future of work lacks a satisfactory framework, which the authors blame for a false dichotomy. The authors describe two sides of the debate, alarmist predictions of the end of work and economists' reassurance from history, and reject both as a false dichotomy.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-17","evidence-ec-m09-18"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-17) Self-description of a theoretical gap about automation and work; not a dated claim about when economists took up AI. (M09-18) Describes a view the authors attribute to many economists (and reject as one side of a false dichotomy); it is not the authors' own view and not a dated record.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-b","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) bears on M09. Self-critique of economists' tendency to treat GDP growth as welfare and give only lip service to distribution. Says economics has traditionally neglected the direction of technical change, motivating the human-enhancing versus human-replacing distinction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-19","evidence-ec-m09-20"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-19) Describes economists' neglect of losers from technical change, not of machine intelligence as a topic. (M09-20) Concerns the economics of technical change in general, not machine intelligence.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy-b","subject":"furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman and Seamans, “AI and the Economy” (2018-06) bears on M09. Concludes that economic research on AI's productivity and labour effects has only begun and calls for more empirical work. Explains why the NBER volume's chapters rely on theoretical models and national statistics rather than firm-level data.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-21","evidence-ec-m09-22"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-21) A self-description of the research as early; not a dated record. (M09-22) Describes a data gap explaining the literature's reliance on theory and aggregate statistics; not a statement about when the field began.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) bears on M09. Summarises economists' long-run optimism on jobs while stressing short-run adjustment costs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-23"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Characterises economists' views on AI and jobs; says nothing about when the field took up AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us-b","subject":"benzell-et-al-2015-robots-are-us","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Benzell et al., “Robots Are Us: Some Economics of Human Replacement” (2015-02) bears on M09. The authors describe a shift from the postwar dismissal of technological-unemployment concerns to recent economic work on smart machines, citing Brynjolfsson and McAfee and Aghion et al. as part of a 'burgeoning literature'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2015, Revised October 2018\". The retrieved PDF is the October 2018 revision, so its wording is attested from 2018-10 only. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-24"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes a renewed debate with acknowledged older roots, not the field as new.","attested":{"date":"2018-10","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the February 2015 wording was not retrieved."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M09. The authors describe how economists studying AI framed it in 2019. The authors describe economics (Herbert Simon) as among the disciplines that pioneered AI in the 1950s.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-25","evidence-ec-m09-26"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-25) Says nothing about when economists began studying AI. (M09-26) Indicates early economist participation in AI research, which complicates but does not test the recency claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) articulates M09. The editors open the volume by stating that economics research on AI is scarce and that existing work extrapolates from earlier technologies such as factory robots. The editors close by calling the economics of AI a new area of study and offering the volume as a starting point.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-27","evidence-ec-m09-30"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on M09. The editors state that the NBER convened its first conference on the economics of AI in September 2017 to set a research agenda. The editors explain that the volume's growth and labour chapters are speculative because AI had not yet diffused, forcing reliance on theory or proxy technologies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-28","evidence-ec-m09-29"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-28) Dates an institutional event rather than describing the field as new; supports M09 only as one dated marker. (M09-29) Describes the evidence base as thin because of limited diffusion, not the field as recently engaged.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-b","subject":"stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Stevenson, “Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning” (2019-05) bears on M09. Stevenson describes economists' prevailing view, grounded in historical experience and IGM panel responses, that technological change has not reduced employment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-31"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Describes economists' earlier views on technology and employment, not the recency of engagement with AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M09. Cowen says economists have done little work on what redistribution must mean in AI-transformed futures.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-32"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Neglect claim is confined to redistribution beyond the Paretian model, not economics of AI generally.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-calvano-et-al-2020-algorithmic-pricing-collusion-b","subject":"calvano-et-al-2020-algorithmic-pricing-collusion","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Calvano et al., “Artificial Intelligence, Algorithmic Pricing, and Collusion” (2020-10) bears on M09. The abstract shows a 2020 AER article whose subject is AI pricing algorithms in oligopoly.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-10","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-33"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A dated data point, not a statement about the field's recency.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-leontief-1952-machines-and-man-b","subject":"leontief-1952-machines-and-man","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief, “Machines and Man” (1952-09) bears on M05. The standfirst of an article by the economist Wassily Leontief on automatic control systems asks whether they will cause widespread technological unemployment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1952-09","basis":"publication","note":"Publisher page: \"published with the title “Machines and Man” in Scientific American Magazine Vol. 187 No. 3 (September 1952), p. 150\"; pages 150–160 from Crossref. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m05-00"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Poses the question only; the article text, where Leontief answers it, was not retrieved.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Article by an economist in a magazine: tier 1 under the 2026-10-11 rule (D2 names this piece). Moved from tier 2. Only the standfirst was retrieved, and it may be editorial wording."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization-a","subject":"bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson, Hitt, “Information Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence” (1999-05) articulates M01. The authors analyse information technology as skill-biased technical change working through complementary organisational change, not only substitution.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-05","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref record for doi:10.3386/w7136 (issued 1999-05); the retrieved PDF has no NBER cover page. Journal version: QJE 117(1), 2002 (census), not retrieved. Third author given name from Crossref. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m01-23"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization-b","subject":"bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson, Hitt, “Information Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence” (1999-05) bears on M09. The authors summarise the economics literature of the 1990s: the unexplained shift in labour demand is attributed to skill-biased technical change, which many link to information technology.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-05","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref record for doi:10.3386/w7136 (issued 1999-05); the retrieved PDF has no NBER cover page. Journal version: QJE 117(1), 2002 (census), not retrieved. Third author given name from Crossref. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m09-34"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes economists' consensus on technology and wage inequality, not the state of research on machine intelligence.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-pajarinen-rouvinen-2014-computerization-finnish-employment-a","subject":"pajarinen-rouvinen-2014-computerization-finnish-employment","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pajarinen and Rouvinen, “Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment” (2014-01-13) articulates M07. Pajarinen and Rouvinen apply an occupation-level susceptibility estimate to Finnish employment and compare it with the United States.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014-01-13","basis":"publication","note":"ETLA publication page: \"Päiväys 13.01.2014\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m07-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Research brief by two economists at ETLA, an economics research institute; a short (6-page) research publication with its own estimates. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-pajarinen-rouvinen-2014-computerization-finnish-employment-b","subject":"pajarinen-rouvinen-2014-computerization-finnish-employment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pajarinen and Rouvinen, “Computerization Threatens One Third of Finnish Employment” (2014-01-13) bears on M07. The authors caution that susceptibility is not a forecast of job loss.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014-01-13","basis":"publication","note":"ETLA publication page: \"Päiväys 13.01.2014\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-m07-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States the limits of the exposure measure rather than a measurement.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Research brief by two economists at ETLA, an economics research institute; a short (6-page) research publication with its own estimates. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-b","subject":"hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth” (1998-06) bears on E01. Hanson opens his journal article by reporting the singularity as others' speculation and recasting it as a question about growth rates. Hanson's bottleneck argument against a technology-driven sudden growth explosion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page header: \"Journal of Transhumanism 2, June 1998\". Hanson is an economist."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-01","evidence-ec-e01-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(E01-01) No machine intelligence improving itself or its successors; \"singularity\" is framed purely as a growth-rate episode. (E01-02) Addresses a growth explosion from any single technology; no AI improving AI.","attested":{"date":"1999-01-28","note":"Wayback capture of the author-hosted page."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Journal article by an author with economist standing in 1998: the archived January 1999 homepage and vita show an economics address, economics teaching in 1995–96 and economics publications before 1998 (checked by the GPT review on 2026-10-15; web.archive.org was not reachable in the correction pass). The vita gives a 1997 PhD without naming the field, so \"economics PhD\" is not claimed."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) bears on E01. In an endogenous learning-by-doing variant, the model loses steady-state solutions and growth keeps accelerating.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"Accelerating growth via endogenous technology; no machine intelligence improving its own design.","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Working paper by an economist (Hanson)."},"conditions":"Learning-by-doing technology with parameters such that the expression for steady growth is not positive."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-c","subject":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Some Skepticism (comment in \"A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept\")” (1998-10) contests E01. Hanson's main objection to an intelligence explosion: diminishing returns to self-improvement, illustrated by schooling and factory learning curves.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-10","basis":"publication","note":"Copyright line \"©1998 by Robin Hanson\" at the end of the comment; the author's December 2000 vita (2000-12-05 capture of hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html) lists the discussion as \"Extropy Online, Oct. 1998\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Accepts the self-redesign mechanism as stated and argues that its returns diminish, so intelligence does not explode."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Short-form comment in an online symposium: tier 2 by form under the rule of 2026-10-11/12. Hanson had economist standing by 1998 (see the record of his 1998 journal article); tier 2 follows from the form, not the author."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b","subject":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Some Skepticism (comment in \"A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept\")” (1998-10) bears on E01. Hanson tests a growth-rate reading of Vinge against growth economics: a one-time intelligence gain gives a one-time jump in output, not faster growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-10","basis":"publication","note":"Copyright line \"©1998 by Robin Hanson\" at the end of the comment; the author's December 2000 vita (2000-12-05 capture of hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html) lists the discussion as \"Extropy Online, Oct. 1998\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Disputes a link between intelligence and growth rates, not AI improving AI.","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Short-form comment in an online symposium: tier 2 by form under the rule of 2026-10-11/12. Hanson had economist standing by 1998 (see the record of his 1998 journal article); tier 2 follows from the form, not the author."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-2008-ai-go-foom-a","subject":"hanson-2008-ai-go-foom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “AI Go Foom” (2008-11-20), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E01. Hanson summarises Yudkowsky's argument \"as best I can, so I can then respond\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-20","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the original Overcoming Bias page (retrieved 2026-10-15): Visible date \"Nov 20, 2008\"; datePublished 2008-11-20T03:00:00+00:00. The compilation heading \"10 November 2008\" is wrong: the post quotes \"Setting the Stage\" (18 November 2008) and sits between posts of 20 and 21 November. The old URL http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/11/ai-go-foom.html redirects here (recorded by the GPT check); the 2008 page itself was not retrieved. The wording was checked in the MIRI compilation of 2013."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-2008-setting-the-stage-b","subject":"hanson-2008-setting-the-stage","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Setting the Stage” (2008-11-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E01. Hanson summarises points of agreement and disagreement with Yudkowsky at the start of the debate.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Puts a low probability on one hand-coded system going suddenly from nearly powerless to overwhelmingly powerful; it does not deny that AI improving AI could accelerate capability growth.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-c","subject":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Wrapping Up” (2008-12-07), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, contests E01. Hanson's objection to Yudkowsky's \"growth math\"; he repeats it in \"What Core Argument?\" (10 December 2008).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Accepts that feedback loops can in principle yield accelerating growth and argues that diminishing returns and other factors normally mute them."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-2011-debating-yudkowsky-b","subject":"hanson-2011-debating-yudkowsky","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Debating Yudkowsky” (2011-07-03), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E01. Hanson concludes his five reasons why powerful architectural insights are rare.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2011-07-03","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-11"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Doubts that one team's architectural innovation could take it from tiny to world takeover within weeks; the passage accepts future superintelligences and does not deny accelerating AI self-improvement in general.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-2013-foom-debate-again-b","subject":"hanson-2013-foom-debate-again","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Foom Debate, Again” (2013-02-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E01. Hanson restates his position in 2013, granting the novelty of self-modification while doubting that it produces a foom.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-02-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-12"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A concession that intentional mind redesign could matter, followed at once by \"seems unlikely to generate foom\".","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement-a","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky, “Recursive Self-Improvement” (2008-12-01), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E01. Yudkowsky's statement of the claim Hanson contests; the post notes that Hanson \"objected to the 'local' part\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates E01. Nordhaus quotes I. J. Good to explain the Singularity idea.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) bears on E01. Nordhaus summarises his tests: five of seven are negative, and the two positive ones put the Singularity 100 years or more away.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-15"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A growth-singularity test (growth above 20% a year), not AI improving AI (scope boundary).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."},"conditions":"Simple extrapolation of the two positive tests."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones and Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates E01. The authors model \"a unit of A.I. working to improve itself\" by a differential equation for cognitive productivity. The authors cite Good (1965), Vinge (1993) and Kurzweil (2005) and point to Nordhaus (2015) for an economic discussion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-16","evidence-ec-e01-17"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Self-improvement law dA/dt = A^(1+ω) for cognitive productivity, with ω > 0."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-c","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones and Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) contests E01. The authors list bottlenecks that could prevent a singularity even with complete automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-18"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Applies the idea-production parameter φ (fishing out) to the self-improvement equation itself."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial-b","subject":"hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hyytinen, “Ovatko hyvät johtamismenetelmät talouskasvun lähde? (pääkirjoitus)” (2017) bears on E01. Hyytinen defines the \"economic-growth singularity\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017","basis":"publication","note":"Issue 4/2017. The upload path (2017/12) suggests December but does not establish the publication month. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-19"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"AI accelerates general technological progress; no AI improving AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja is a core venue for the Finnish strand (maintainer decision of 2026-10-12), so tier 1 regardless of form. The editorial is signed by the journal's editor, an economics professor, and cites the economics literature (footnote 3)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-b","subject":"gans-2018-self-regulating-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Self-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence” (2018-02) bears on E01. After quoting Good and citing Yudkowsky (2007) and Omohundro (2007) on \"recursive self-improvement\", Gans recasts it in economic terms. Gans's main result: a paperclip AI refrains from activating power-accumulating successor AIs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2018\"; Crossref issued 2018-02. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-20","evidence-ec-e01-21"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"(E01-20) States the mechanism of self-improvement (building a better AI) without acceleration; the paper argues that a control problem limits it. (E01-21) Limits the creation of power-accumulating successors; the model still has the AI activate research-specialist AIs, so accelerating cognitive self-improvement is not contested.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."},"conditions":"Assumptions A1 and A2."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) bears on E01. Cites Aghion, Jones and Jones (2019), Trammell and Korinek (2020), Davidson (2021), Nordhaus (2021), Erdil and Besiroglu (2023).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-22"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Growth explosion from automated idea production (G02); does not state that AI improves AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."},"conditions":"'Once machines can produce ideas'; 'could', 'potentially'."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E01. Discussing AI safety, the authors say models in which capital recursively self-improves without human input are the most worrying for existential risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-23"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) bears on E01. The abstract distinguishes AI letting capital self-replicate from AI letting it self-improve via knowledge production.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-24"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"Self-improvement of capital through knowledge production, framed as growth, not AI improving AI's own capabilities.","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-b","subject":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Suh, “Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) bears on E01. Following Aghion et al. (2019) and Trammell and Korinek (2023), the model shows a 'type II singularity' (infinite output in finite time) once automation passes a threshold.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2024\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-25"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"Self-reinforcing growth from automated R&D (G02); AI does not improve AI in the model.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Suh are economists."},"conditions":"Sufficient automation of final-output and knowledge production; constant saving rate and allocation; no depreciation."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on E01. Explains the paper's scope; the example given is DeepMind's protein-folding and crystal-structure work.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-26"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About AI changing scientific research generally, not AI improving AI; a timing judgement for the paper's horizon, not a rejection of the possibility.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Within a 10-year horizon."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) bears on E01. Opening paragraph: the authors say future models may reach AGI and, unlike earlier technologies, could automate R&D itself. The clause names AI creating better AI systems. The authors characterise the 'singularity' hypothesis and add that absent current economic effects cannot refute it because the theory predicts little advance warning. Second of the review's 'robust findings': automating R&D in isolation has ambiguous growth effects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-27","evidence-ec-e01-30","evidence-ec-e01-32"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"(E01-27) AI building better AI, without stated acceleration of capabilities. (E01-30) Describes a hypothesis held by others and what it predicts; it does not itself state that AI improves AI, and the authors neither endorse nor reject the hypothesis here. (E01-32) About output growth from automated research in general (G02 territory), not about AI improving AI; it bounds the acceleration rather than rejecting it.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."},"conditions":"(E01-27) Conditional on future models reaching AGI ('may reach'). (E01-32) Automating R&D in isolation; depends on parallelizability and research constraints."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) articulates E01. Abstract sentence contrasting automation of production (self-replication) with automation of R&D (self-improvement). Citing the high capital share in AI R&D (Besiroglu et al., 2024), the authors describe a feedback in which automating AI R&D speeds AI capability growth, then cite calibrated models of this feedback (Erdil et al. 2025; Lifland et al. 2025) as having 'speculative elements'. In the risk subsection, the authors contrast a scenario of acceleration from R&D automation alone with scenarios of automated physical production, each with distinct safety concerns.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e01-28","evidence-ec-e01-29","evidence-ec-e01-31"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."},"conditions":"(E01-28) Within the reviewed growth models; acceleration not sufficient 'in isolation'. (E01-29) 'could'; hedged 'in some sense'. (E01-31) Scenario; 'potential for'."}}},{"id":"ec-e02-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) bears on E02. Hanson motivates his model of machine intelligence by the stated goals of AI and robotics.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"All human cognitive tasks, but no claim that machines surpass humans (M05 territory).","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Working paper by an economist (Hanson)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-hanson-2011-debating-yudkowsky-a","subject":"hanson-2011-debating-yudkowsky","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Debating Yudkowsky” (2011-07-03), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E02. Hanson's summary position after the 2011 debate.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2011-07-03","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates E02. Nordhaus reports the computer-science view, quoting Bostrom (2006).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones and Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on E02. The authors note that their \"labor free\" singularities need complete automation of cognitive tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Human-level, not beyond-human, intelligence.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates E02. Korinek and Stiglitz open their speculative long-run section with expert forecasts (citing Bostrom 2014).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"If human-level AGI is reached."}}},{"id":"ec-e02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) articulates E02. The editors distinguish machine learning, AGI and automation as meanings of AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-a","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) articulates E02. Preceded by 'many experts worry that these advances entail existential risk:'. Jones reports warnings from 'a substantial contingent of the A.I. research community, including leading researchers at OpenAI and Google'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-08","evidence-ec-e02-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) bears on E02. Jones's own statement of possibility, followed by growth models in which machines produce ideas.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"'Many cognitive tasks', not essentially all; 'innovating itself' means AI producing ideas, not explicitly improving AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E02. Explaining their focus on average wages and the labour share, the authors state that the likeliest transformative long-run scenario is AI outsmarting all humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-11"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-b","subject":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Suh, “Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) bears on E02. The paper models wages and output under scenarios that 'may culminate' in AGI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2024\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-12"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Defines AGI as ability to perform all human tasks (M05-type), not cognitive superiority.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Suh are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on E02. Footnote 1 cites Korinek and Suh (2024) and those who see a confirmation of Kurzweil's (2005) singularity forecast; Acemoglu contrasts 'more grounded' forecasters.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports others' AGI expectations (all tasks, M05-type); no cognitive superiority stated and not Acemoglu's view.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-b","subject":"jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “How Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?” (2025-03) bears on E02. The preceding sentence reports experts on catastrophic outcomes 'either from malicious use or even from a superintelligent A.I. itself'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2025\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"'Most tasks', not essentially all; framed as world-changing benefit.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2025-genius-on-demand-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2025-genius-on-demand","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb, “Genius on Demand: The Value of Transformative Artificial Intelligence” (2025-10) bears on E02. Model of 'genius on demand' AI; human geniuses specialise where their comparative advantage over AI is greatest.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-10","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref issued 2025-10. PDF refused (HTTP 403); NBER abstract page used. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-15"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"AI approaching, not exceeding, human genius efficiency; in knowledge work only.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb are economists."},"conditions":"'if AI efficiency approaches human genius efficiency'."}}},{"id":"ec-e02-restrepo-2025-we-wont-be-missed-b","subject":"restrepo-2025-we-wont-be-missed","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Restrepo, “We Won't be Missed: Work and Growth in the AGI World” (2025-10) bears on E02. Restrepo's chapter for the NBER volume The Economics of Transformative AI; the abstract derives labour-share convergence to zero.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-10","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref issued 2025-10. PDF refused (HTTP 403); NBER abstract page used. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"All economically valuable work done by compute (M05); no statement that machine cognition surpasses human cognition.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Restrepo is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) bears on E02. Definition of AGI used in the review's introduction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e02-17"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Defines AGI as parity with skilled humans on all cognitive tasks ('at least as well as'); it does not state that machines would exceed human cognition.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-hanson-2008-setting-the-stage-b","subject":"hanson-2008-setting-the-stage","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Setting the Stage” (2008-11-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E03. First item in Hanson's list of points on which he and Yudkowsky \"seem to agree\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Risk is not specified as extinction or loss of control and is not placed in an economic analysis.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-b","subject":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Wrapping Up” (2008-12-07), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E03. Hanson argues that property-rights institutions protect humans in his preferred emulation scenario.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns emulations rather than misaligned AI; it argues that extermination is unlikely and puts no risk into a welfare or policy analysis.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates E03. Nordhaus adds the superintelligent machines themselves to his list of risks in a section on \"evil agents\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."},"conditions":"If Good's description of superintelligence is taken seriously."}}},{"id":"ec-e03-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) bears on E03. The footnote qualifies the authors' assumption that \"our social and economic system will be maintained\" after AGI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports AI-safety researchers' doom scenarios in a footnote; the main text assumes them away.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates E03. The authors discuss whether humans can keep property rights over AI entities. Drawing on Korinek (2017), the authors describe a Malthusian race between humans and autonomous AI entities.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-05","evidence-ec-e03-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(E03-05) If the intelligence gap between humans and super-intelligent AI entities grows too large. (E03-06) Humans do not or cannot assert ownership over AI entities; AI reproduction technology improves exponentially."}}},{"id":"ec-e03-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-a","subject":"gans-2018-self-regulating-agi","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Self-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence” (2018-02) articulates E03. Gans takes Bostrom's control problem and \"paperclip apocalypse\" into economic theory. Gans states the scope of his self-regulation result.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2018\"; Crossref issued 2018-02. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-07","evidence-ec-e03-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."},"conditions":"Assumptions A1 (an AI self-improves only by employing AIs with targeted goals) and A2 (improving power requires power-accumulation capabilities)."}}},{"id":"ec-e03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on E03. The editors summarise Patrick Francois's comment on a world where machines are better at all tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Value specification as a political task; no extinction or loss-of-control risk is stated.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-a","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) articulates E03. The abstract sets growth gains against existential risk, which it attributes to 'many experts', and frames the paper as a welfare analysis of whether to continue or stop. First of four insights: 'With log utility, the models are remarkably unconcerned with existential risk'. Insight 2 says CRRA utility with γ of 2 or more is 'quite conservative'. Key Point 3: with γ ≤ 1 any risk short of sure annihilation is acceptable for an immediate singularity; with γ = 2 or 3 the cutoffs are much smaller. The 'key exception' to the conservative result: mortality gains are 'in the same units' as existential risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-10","evidence-ec-e03-11","evidence-ec-e03-12","evidence-ec-e03-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."},"conditions":"(E03-11) Log utility; simple static model. (E03-12) γ = 3; immediate singularity with infinite consumption; no A.I. mortality improvement; ρ − b = 1%, g0 = 2%, m0 = 1%, v(c0) = 6. (E03-13) If A.I.-driven innovation extends life expectancy and reduces mortality."}}},{"id":"ec-e03-gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi-b","subject":"gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Can Socially-Minded Governance Control the AGI Beast?” (2023-11) bears on E03. Refers to the 'potential existential risks' that motivated OpenAI's funders; the model then assumes the risks are real.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A literature and motivation statement, not a substantive economic treatment of the risk; the model treats harm from dangerous users as an expected negative externality (E > 0), not as extinction or loss of control.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E03. The authors frame AI safety as a public good to which public-goods and climate-risk economics could apply.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-15"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-jones-2024-ai-dilemma-aer-insights-a","subject":"jones-2024-ai-dilemma-aer-insights","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The AI Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2024-12) articulates E03. Published version of Jones's working paper; the abstract attributes existential risk from a misaligned superintelligence to 'many experts'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref record doi:10.1257/aeri.20230570 (issued 2024-12). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER: Insights (AEA journal); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-a","subject":"jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “How Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?” (2025-03) articulates E03. Sentence continues 'in the Covid-19 pandemic'; Jones adds that mortality risk to people alive 'more than justifies spending large amounts'. Abstract follows a back-of-envelope calculation from a $10 million value of life and a 1% mortality risk. Preceded by the note that 12–33% of runs lead to zero mitigation investment (very small or hard-to-mitigate risk). After saying that valuing future generations would raise the amount.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2025\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-17","evidence-ec-e03-18","evidence-ec-e03-19","evidence-ec-e03-20"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."},"conditions":"(E03-18) 'For most of the scenarios and parameter combinations considered'; no weight on future generations. (E03-19) Monte Carlo average over assumed parameter distributions; zero altruism to future generations."}}},{"id":"ec-e03-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) articulates E03. Concluding subsection placing AI existential risk within the paper's framing of economic transformation; it goes on to say the scenarios carry different risk profiles.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e03-21"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-friendliness-factors-a","subject":"hanson-2008-friendliness-factors","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Friendliness Factors” (2008-11-16), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E04. Hanson lists competition factors (info leaks, shared standards, anti-trust, sharing deals) that affect how far a winner leads.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-16","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-emulations-go-foom-b","subject":"hanson-2008-emulations-go-foom","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Emulations Go Foom” (2008-11-22), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E04. Hanson's scenario of competing whole-brain-emulation (\"bot\") projects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-02"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The race is analysed for leads and dominance; the safety or control of the systems is not discussed here.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-friendly-projects-vs-products-a","subject":"hanson-2008-friendly-projects-vs-products","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Friendly Projects vs. Products” (2008-12-05), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E04. Hanson separates \"project friendliness\" (how race winners treat losers) from \"product friendliness\" (whether creations rebel). Hanson qualifies his claim that developers have strong incentives to avoid rebellious creations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-05","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-03","evidence-ec-e04-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-a","subject":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Wrapping Up” (2008-12-07), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E04. Hanson proposes liability and insurance for AI developers as the institutional answer to the friendliness problem.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-b","subject":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Wrapping Up” (2008-12-07), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E04. Hanson on why Yudkowsky's concern feels urgent.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A counterfactual about regulation, not an analysis of developers' incentives.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) bears on E04. Nordhaus compares the diffusion of superintelligence technology with that of weapons technology.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Diffusion to adversaries, not how developers' incentives or governance affect safety.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) bears on E04. The authors consider halting AI progress before turning to a human \"reservation\" policy.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Asks whether humanity should slow or halt AI progress; does not analyse developers' incentives.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-b","subject":"gans-2018-self-regulating-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Self-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence” (2018-02) bears on E04. Gans draws a governance implication from his model.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2018\"; Crossref issued 2018-02. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"Governance of AI property, not developers' incentives or competition.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi-a","subject":"gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Can Socially-Minded Governance Control the AGI Beast?” (2023-11) articulates E04. Abstract: a model under idealised conditions (AGI risks real, safe AGI possible, socially-minded funders exist) motivated by OpenAI's governance. Case in which the for-profit entity is viable in direct competition; 'they' is the socially-minded entity. Conclusion; Gans adds that whether national or global intervention is needed is left to future research, while the results point to the latter.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-10","evidence-ec-e04-11","evidence-ec-e04-12"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."},"conditions":"(E04-10) Idealised assumptions; non-excludable technology; financial-viability constraint. (E04-11) For-profit entity viable in competition with the socially-minded entity."}}},{"id":"ec-e04-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-a","subject":"jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “How Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?” (2025-03) articulates E04. Listed among 'many related questions that merit further study'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2025\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) bears on E04. Closing sentence of the dangerous-AI subsection.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-14"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Lists safety research and governance frameworks as policy responses; it does not analyse developers' incentives, competition or governance structures.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-bueno-de-mesquita-dziuda-polborn-2026-agi-race-a","subject":"bueno-de-mesquita-dziuda-polborn-2026-agi-race","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bueno de Mesquita, Dziuda and Polborn, “The AGI Race and Existential Risk” (2026-05) articulates E04. Model of firms allocating scarce resources between speed and safety in a race to AGI; the abstract opens by questioning the common assumption that competition and resources increase risk. Holds above a critical market size; below it firms have positive expected payoff from achieving AGI. The model's risk variable is 'doom risk'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref issued 2026-05. PDF refused (HTTP 403); NBER abstract page used. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e04-15","evidence-ec-e04-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); the authors are political economists."},"conditions":"Market size above the model's critical cutoff."}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-b","subject":"hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth” (1998-06) bears on E05. Hanson closes by asking singularity advocates to state their case in economic terms.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page header: \"Journal of Transhumanism 2, June 1998\". Hanson is an economist."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-01"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No statement that economics has neglected or taken up the topic; it sets a standard for advocates.","attested":{"date":"1999-01-28","note":"Wayback capture of the author-hosted page."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Journal article by an author with economist standing in 1998: the archived January 1999 homepage and vita show an economics address, economics teaching in 1995–96 and economics publications before 1998 (checked by the GPT review on 2026-10-15; web.archive.org was not reachable in the correction pass). The vita gives a 1997 PhD without naming the field, so \"economics PhD\" is not claimed."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) bears on E05. Hanson justifies his paper by a gap in economic research. Hanson's closing call for more economic research.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-02","evidence-ec-e05-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(E05-02) The neglected topic is machine intelligence replacing labour, not superintelligence, RSI or existential risk. (E05-03) Topic is machine intelligence as labour substitute, not superintelligence, RSI or existential risk.","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Working paper by an economist (Hanson)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hanson-2008-setting-the-stage-b","subject":"hanson-2008-setting-the-stage","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Setting the Stage” (2008-11-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E05. Hanson states that his position in the foom debate rests on growth economics.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes Hanson's own method, not whether economics engaged with the topic.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hanson-2008-what-core-argument-b","subject":"hanson-2008-what-core-argument","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “What Core Argument?” (2008-12-10), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E05. Hanson contrasts Yudkowsky's foom (about sixty doublings in about a week) with specialist estimates.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-10","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-05"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"An unsourced assertion about specialists' likely estimates, not a record of economists' engagement.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hanson-2013-foom-debate-again-b","subject":"hanson-2013-foom-debate-again","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Foom Debate, Again” (2013-02-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E05. Hanson argues that growth economics, not newly invented categories, should frame the intelligence-explosion question.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-02-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-06"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says economics should frame the topic; does not say whether it has.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates E05. Nordhaus introduces the computer-science literature on AI and the Singularity to economists. Nordhaus surveys economic antecedents (Keynes, Simon and others) before his model.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-07","evidence-ec-e05-08"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones and Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates E05. The abstract lists singularities and superintelligence among the questions for an economics research agenda.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-09"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial-b","subject":"hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hyytinen, “Ovatko hyvät johtamismenetelmät talouskasvun lähde? (pääkirjoitus)” (2017) bears on E05. Editorial in the Finnish economics association's journal; it calls the idea \"apparently improbable but interesting\" before turning to management practices.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017","basis":"publication","note":"Issue 4/2017. The upload path (2017/12) suggests December but does not establish the publication month. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-10"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns a growth singularity; no statement about economics' engagement with superintelligence or RSI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja is a core venue for the Finnish strand (maintainer decision of 2026-10-12), so tier 1 regardless of form. The editorial is signed by the journal's editor, an economics professor, and cites the economics literature (footnote 3)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates E05. The authors justify taking up AGI in an economics paper. The authors flag the speculative nature of their AI-entity scenario.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-11","evidence-ec-e05-12"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-a","subject":"gans-2018-self-regulating-agi","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Self-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence” (2018-02) articulates E05. Gans explains why he takes a different modelling route.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2018\"; Crossref issued 2018-02. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-13"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) articulates E05. The editors justify including superintelligence in an economics agenda. The editors characterise how much the volume covers superintelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-14","evidence-ec-e05-15"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on E05. Cowen's chapter on neglected questions sets aside labour substitution and turns to consumer surplus, trade and redistribution.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No mention of superintelligence, AGI, RSI or AI existential risk in a chapter on neglected questions.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) bears on E05. Distinguishes the paper from Jones (2016) on growth versus lives lost; earlier the section lists Joy, Bostrom, Rees, Posner, Yudkowsky et al. and Ord as having highlighted AI existential risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-17"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States the paper's own focus relative to the author's earlier work; it does not say that economics neglected the topic.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E05. Closing their review, Trammell and Korinek say that existential risk from AI, central in futurist discussion, is almost absent from economics, because existing growth models offer no obvious mechanism for it. The authors attribute the profession's inattention to growth singularities to a modelling norm tied to the Kaldor facts, not to the models themselves. Footnote dating Sandberg's 2013 overview of singularity models to before mainstream economists' engagement with transformative AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-18","evidence-ec-e05-19","evidence-ec-e05-20"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) bears on E05. The review opens by dating economists' awareness of AI's transformative potential to Simon's prediction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-21"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A claim about economists' long-standing understanding, not a statement that the topic is new or neglected; it qualifies an 'only recently' reading.","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-a","subject":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Suh, “Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) articulates E05. Final list of next steps after a 'compute-centric' model of the transition to AGI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2024\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-22"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Suh are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-b","subject":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Suh, “Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) bears on E05. Followed by Good (1965) on an intelligence explosion, Bostrom (2014) on superintelligence and Yudkowsky (2013) on 'several of the economic implications of the transition to AGI'. Literature review entry on Jones's existential-risk paper.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2024\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-23","evidence-ec-e05-24"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(E05-23) Connects an economics paper to the superintelligence literature by citation; citation is not engagement with its claims, and the cited authors are non-economists. (E05-24) Acknowledges existential risk as part of AGI discussion; the paper itself does not model it.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Suh are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on E05. First of four possible medium-run macro effects of AI; the paper analyses the more modest task-level effects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-25"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Explicitly sets the singularity aside from the analysis; it neither states nor rejects AI self-improvement or superintelligence, and the 'singularity' meant is a productivity revolution.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-a","subject":"jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “How Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?” (2025-03) articulates E05. Jones then says the Covid-19 experience supplies a key insight, letting existential risk be modelled like pandemic mortality.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2025\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-26"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk-b","subject":"jones-2025-spend-to-reduce-ai-existential-risk","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “How Much Should We Spend to Reduce A.I.'s Existential Risk?” (2025-03) bears on E05. Related-literature paragraph that also cites Aschenbrenner (2020), Aschenbrenner and Trammell (2024) and Martin and Pindyck.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2025\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-27"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says much of the work on AI existential risk lies outside economics; it is a remark on a review, not a statement that economics neglected the topic.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-andrews-farboodi-2025-markets-transformative-ai-b","subject":"andrews-farboodi-2025-markets-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Andrews and Farboodi, “Do Markets Believe in Transformative AI?” (2025-09) bears on E05. Event study of US Treasury and TIPS yields around 30 frontier-lab model releases (Nov 2022–Dec 2025).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-09","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref issued 2025-09. PDF refused (HTTP 403); NBER abstract page used. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-28"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Evidence about investors' beliefs on transformative AI, inferred from yields; not about superintelligence, self-improvement or existential risk, and not a statement about economics as a field.","attested":{"date":"2026-07","note":"The NBER abstract page shows \"Revision Date July 2026\"; the abstract describes data to December 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Andrews and Farboodi are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-brynjolfsson-korinek-agrawal-2025-research-agenda-transformative-ai-b","subject":"brynjolfsson-korinek-agrawal-2025-research-agenda-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brynjolfsson, Korinek and Agrawal, “A Research Agenda for the Economics of Transformative AI” (2025-09) bears on E05. Opening sentence of the research-agenda abstract ('As we approach Transformative Artificial Intelligence (TAI), …'). The agenda's list; 'safety risks' is one of nine challenges.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-09","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref issued 2025-09. PDF refused (HTTP 403); NBER abstract page used. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-29","evidence-ec-e05-30"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(E05-29) Calls for an economics of transformative AI in general; the abstract does not name superintelligence, AGI, the singularity or existential risk. (E05-30) \"Safety risks\" in an abstract list; existential risk is not stated in the retrieved text.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Brynjolfsson, Korinek and Agrawal are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) articulates E05. Cites Jones (2024, 2025) and Shulman and Thornley (2025), and Trammell and Aschenbrenner (2026) on precaution possibly increasing long-term risk. The authors introduce their synthesis of 'the most influential papers on the topic' of transformative AI and growth. Footnote: most models Sandberg summarised did not spell out how AI would fit standard economic models; 'Our review fills this gap.'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ec-e05-31","evidence-ec-e05-32","evidence-ec-e05-33"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc1-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc1-orbital-solar-supply"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission; this admission could not reach the Archive."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc1-suncatcher-2025","subject":"suncatcher-blog-2025","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc1-orbital-solar-supply"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-11-04","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc1-spacex-2026","subject":"spacex-xai-update-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc1-orbital-solar-supply"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-02-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc2-ascend-2024","subject":"ascend-results-release-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc2-radiative-cooling-advantage"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc2-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc2-radiative-cooling-advantage"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc2-cavalier-2026","subject":"cavalier-spectrum-2026","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc2-radiative-cooling-advantage"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc3-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc3-terrestrial-constraints"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc3-axiom-2025","subject":"axiom-odc-release-2025","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc3-terrestrial-constraints"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-07","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc3-spacex-2026","subject":"spacex-xai-update-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc3-terrestrial-constraints"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-02-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc4-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc4-launch-cost-condition"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). 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