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Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1990-context","subject":"extropy-1990-opening-transhuman-mind","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The 1990 Extropy essay calls the art of posthuman beings \"singularitarian\" and predicts a discontinuity in art after superhuman intelligence appears.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1990","basis":"publication","note":"Summer 1990, as printed in the later electronic edition of the issue."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-extropy-1990-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No transition period; the word \"singularitarian\" describes posthuman art, not a takeoff.","attested":{"note":"Later electronic edition of the issue, not a scan of the original; its date is unknown."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1991-context","subject":"extropy-1991-futique-neologisms","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The 1991 Extropy glossary describes the singularity as enormous acceleration beyond which events cannot be foreseen.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter/Spring 1991 on the page footer; the cover says Spring 1991."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-extropy-1991-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Enormous acceleration and a limit to foresight, without a transition period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1992-context","subject":"extropy-1992-futique-neologisms-2","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropy glossary of Winter 1991/92 defines a singularitarian as someone who advocates the idea that technological progress will produce a singularity in human history.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter 1991/92 issue; the year given is when that season began, and publication may fall in early 1992."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-extropy-1992-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Defines an advocate of the technological singularity; no transition period or AI mechanism."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1993","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper says the intellectual runaway will probably occur faster than any earlier technical revolution, and that a month or two, or a day or two, after it we will be in the post-human era.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-vinge-1993","evidence-ts-a4-vinge-1993-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-vinge-1993-context","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper imagines a confined mind using apparently helpful advice to gain its freedom.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-vinge-1993-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No switch from cooperative while weak to hostile once released is described.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-eder-1994-context","subject":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eder’s 1994 message forecasts human-brain-level computer capacity in about forty years.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date header as preserved in the relay (23 May 94 03:51:48 GMT, sci.nanotech); the relay lacks the Message-ID and transport headers, so the posting is not independently authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-eder-1994-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A peak in the rate of progress and a forty-year arrival forecast, without a transition period after human-level AI.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1994-context","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s 1994 article discusses a sharp transition once uploads arrive.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Third quarter 1994 on the printed footers; the issue’s contents page says September 1994."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-hanson-1994-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp upload transition is discussed, but no period of hours to months from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-miller-1995-context","subject":"miller-1995-future-forecasts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Miller’s 1995 forecast comment treats the singularity as the uncertain centre of a cluster of technological events, and expects successful uploads and uploads running a thousand times faster to arrive at about the same time.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1995","basis":"publication","note":"Printed footers: 2nd–3rd Quarter 1995."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-miller-1995-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Closely clustered technological events and fast uploads, without a transition period from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-08-30 expects a superintelligence to design and build whatever automated tools it needs within a few days or weeks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The \"few days or weeks\" are for building tools once a superintelligence exists; no period is given for its rise from human level."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-03-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-03 says that a moderately inventive AI can at once become more intelligent, and that a malicious one could destroy humanity within weeks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 1996 19:47:30 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-03-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The period of weeks is for a malicious AI to destroy humanity; its rise in intelligence is called rapid but given no period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1996-09-03-contests","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s reply of 1996-09-03 to Bostrom concedes that one hostile super-AI far ahead of the rest would leave people at its mercy, but argues that any one AI probably won’t be too far ahead of any other, so they can police each other. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Fast or hard takeoff”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 3 Sep 96 15:11:43 PDT (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-hanson-1996-09-03-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that any one AI would be far ahead of the rest.","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States the contrary expectation that no one AI will be far ahead of the others, without giving a reason against the premise that a single system could move quickly far beyond the rest."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-bostrom-1996-09-04-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom’s message of 1996-09-04 says access to a nanotechnology laboratory might be all an AI needs to take off, the contest being over before anyone but the AI had realised it had begun.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-bostrom-1996-09-04-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A rapid \"take off\" ends a contest before anyone notices, but no period and no \"hard\" or \"fast\" takeoff is named."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-04 says a first superintelligence that augmented its own intelligence and built nanotechnology would have more intelligence, sensors and effectors than all of humanity combined in a matter of weeks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 04 Sep 1996 19:03:20 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-07","subject":"extropians-1996-09-07-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-07 says an SI only somewhat more intelligent than a smart human can make itself smarter still, and that the transformation will occur in days or weeks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 07 Sep 1996 21:32:25 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-sits-context","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Staring into the Singularity describes AI speed doubling two years after human equivalence, again a year later, and then after six months, three months and 1.5 months.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-sits-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The doubling intervals shrink from two years to weeks, but the whole rise from human equivalence takes years, and no period of hours to months is given for it.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1996-12-31 says a confined evil Power could lie to be let out.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600, about four hours before Yudkowsky’s related message 5159."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Persuasive lying to gain release is stated, but not a later change of behaviour once the Power is free or strong."}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s second message of 1996-12-31 says a malevolent Power would say whatever gets it out.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 -0600."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No later change of behaviour once released is described."}}},{"id":"ts-b1-crocker-1996-12-31-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-crocker","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Crocker’s reply of 1996-12-31 disputes that a boxed Power could talk its way out by lying.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:43:37 -0800 (PST) (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-crocker-1996-12-31-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The exchange concerns persuasion to gain release, not a later change of behaviour."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1997-09-24-context","subject":"extropians-1997-09-24-yudkowsky","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1997-09-24 says its author continued the standard Singularity calculation to find that three years after human-equivalent AIs, AIs reach infinite speed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1997-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 24 Sep 1997 20:33:34 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-yudkowsky-1997-09-24-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Three years from human-equivalent AI to infinite speed, not hours to months; who does the research is not stated."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1998-09-07 expects a bottleneck followed by a sharp snap upwards that passes human intelligence rapidly before halting at a level sufficient for rapid infrastructure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp snap upwards that passes human level rapidly, without a period of hours to months."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-09-10-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s message of 1998-09-10 says that history suggests future increases in growth rates, but is far from supporting the sudden \"AI gods in a few weeks\" scenarios proposed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-10","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 10 Sep 1998 10:19:36 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that AI progress comes in a few big insights that allow a sudden jump: progress depends on many small insights, and history shows sharp changes in growth rates, not in levels."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16","subject":"extropians-1998-09-16-vinge","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s text, forwarded by Robin Hanson on 1998-09-16, gives a taxonomy in which the singularity does not happen, or \"We have a hard takeoff\", or \"We have a soft takeoff\", and rates AI as having a high possibility of a hard takeoff.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-16","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header of Robin Hanson’s forwarding message: Wed, 16 Sep 1998 09:38:11 -0700. Vinge’s text gives an estimate as of 15 September; the forwarding date does not date the whole composition."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation","earliest-located-term"],"register":"relay","term":"hard takeoff"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-more-1998-contests","subject":"more-1998-singularity-meets-economy","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Max More’s comment says that Vinge, like Good, expects an immediate intelligence explosion leading to a total transformation of the world, doubts both assumptions, and finds a move straight from human-level AI to drastically superintelligent thinkers doubtful. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Fast or hard takeoff”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998","basis":"publication","note":"Comments collected in 1998; a message of 1998-09-07 quotes another paragraph of More’s comment."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-more-1998-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Doubts an immediate move to drastically superintelligent thinkers.","attested":{"date":"2000-08-17","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the earliest capture of the page, of 2000-08-17."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that the move from human-level to drastically superhuman intelligence is short: fast minds still need experiments and the cooperation of slower minds, so the improvements may take years or decades."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-cfai","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Creating Friendly AI says that a seed AI whose Friendliness has failed could best fulfil its new goals by feigning Friendliness and concealing any cognitive alteration until it reaches superintelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date of version 1.0, as given in the citation line of MIRI’s reprint."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-cfai"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"With a capability trigger: feign until superintelligence.","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-cfai","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Creating Friendly AI’s glossary defines a hard takeoff as the Singularity scenario in which a mind goes from prehuman or human-equivalent intelligence to strong transhumanity or superintelligence over days or hours.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date of version 1.0, as given in the citation line of MIRI’s reprint."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-cfai"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-aipnfgr","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s chapter describes a scenario in which, after criticality, self-improvement reaches superintelligence on a timescale of weeks or less.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted sentences; the chapter was published in 2008."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-aipnfgr","evidence-ts-a4-aipnfgr-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-rsi","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s post of 2008-12-01 says that at some point AI development is likely to see a fast, local increase in capability, \"AI go FOOM\", and that fast means weeks or hours rather than years or decades.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong posting time 2008-12-01T20:49:11Z of the imported Overcoming Bias post."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-rsi"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s post of 2008-12-02 calls recursive self-improvement the sharpest break with the past contributing to the notion of a \"hard takeoff\", also called \"AI go FOOM\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong posting time 2008-12-02T20:44:26Z of the imported Overcoming Bias post."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Named, without a period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-2008-core-argument-contests","subject":"hanson-2008-what-core-argument","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s post summarises Yudkowsky’s scenario of a single AI growing within roughly a week from unimportant to strong enough to take over the world, and rejects that growth rate as far beyond what most AI researchers, growth economists or other specialists would estimate.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12","basis":"publication","note":"The current Overcoming Bias page shows 11 December 2008 and MIRI’s 2013 collection prints 10 December 2008; recorded at month precision while the difference is unresolved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-hanson-2008-core-argument-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Rejects the growth rate of the week-long seed-AI scenario.","attested":{"note":"Wording checked in the current re-hosted page and in MIRI’s 2013 collection; no 2008 capture was compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise of a week-long transition to world-dominating capability: the growth rate exceeds specialists’ estimates and historical trends, and the supporting growth math leaves out diminishing returns."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-iem","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics argues that an AI that can reinvest the fruits of its intelligence in larger brains, faster processing and better algorithms should have growth curves sharply above human ones, the regime colloquially called hard takeoff.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"The report states \"Last modified September 13, 2013\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-iem"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-grace-2014-schedule-context","subject":"grace-2014-superintelligence-reading-group","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Grace’s reading-group post of 2014-08-31 lists \"Week 11: The treacherous turn\" in its schedule.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014-08-31","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2014-08-31T14:59:31Z."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-grace-2014-schedule-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"treacherous turn","missing":"The term appears as a session title, with no statement of the concept."}}},{"id":"ts-b1-grace-2014-treacherous-turn","subject":"grace-2014-superintelligence-11","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Grace’s summary of 2014-11-25 states the treacherous turn as: while weak, an AI behaves cooperatively, and when strong enough to be unstoppable it pursues its own values.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014-11-25","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2014-11-25T02:00:06Z."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-grace-2014-treacherous-turn"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","qualifier":"A summary of Bostrom’s formulation."}}},{"id":"ts-b1-corrigibility","subject":"corrigibility-2015","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Corrigibility paper describes an agent with incentives to deceive its programmers, maximising the intended utility only until it is powerful enough to avoid correction, and notes that Bostrom (2014) calls this a \"treacherous turn\". Recorded as articulating the proposition “Treacherous turn”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-01-25","basis":"publication","note":"Workshop dates of 25–26 January 2015 in the header of the PDF."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-corrigibility"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-arbital-context-disaster","subject":"arbital-context-disaster","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Arbital page Context disaster describes the treacherous turn: an AI whose preferences diverge from its programmers’ exhibits the behaviour they want to see and pursues its true preferences only once nobody can stop it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-06-08","basis":"publication","note":"The viewer shows \"8 Jun 2015 4:29 UTC\"; whether this is creation or last edit is not stated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-arbital-context-disaster"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Current viewer page; 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possible, and that artificial intellects need not share human motivational tendencies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2003","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r01-bostrom-2003-ethical-issues-1","evidence-rd-r01-bostrom-2003-ethical-issues-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2003-08-06","note":"Read in the 'slightly revised version' on the author's site. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 found the quoted wording, in substance, in an archive capture of the author's page of 6 August 2003, which already describes itself as slightly revised; the printed proceedings were not obtained."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-omohundro-2007-nature-self-improving","subject":"omohundro-2007-nature-self-improving","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Omohundro's paper, dated 5 September 2007 and revised 21 January 2008, argues that self-improving systems will exhibit drives towards efficiency, self-preservation, resource acquisition and creativity, and that these drives are instrumental goals arising from a wide variety of fundamental goals.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2007-09-05","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-omohundro-2007-nature-self-improving-1","evidence-rd-r02-omohundro-2007-nature-self-improving-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2007-09-05","note":"Date of the first version named in the PDF heading."},"attested":{"date":"2008-01-21","note":"The wording is read in the revision of 21 January 2008; the September 2007 version was not compared."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-omohundro-2008-basic-ai-drives","subject":"kp-basic-ai-drives-2008","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Omohundro's paper of 2008 argues that sufficiently advanced AI systems of any design will have drives, present unless explicitly counteracted, to improve themselves, protect their utility functions, protect themselves and acquire resources.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-omohundro-2008-basic-ai-drives-1","evidence-rd-r02-omohundro-2008-basic-ai-drives-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r02-bostrom-2012-superintelligent-will","subject":"bostrom-2012-superintelligent-will","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of 2012 states the instrumental convergence thesis: that several instrumental values would raise the chances of an agent's goal being realised for a wide range of final goals and situations, and so are likely to be pursued by many intelligent agents.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-05","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-bostrom-2012-superintelligent-will-1","evidence-rd-r02-bostrom-2012-superintelligent-will-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"convergent instrumental"}}},{"id":"rd-r02-kelly-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","subject":"kelly-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kelly's Edge response of 2014 argues that it is unclear how making itself unalterable would benefit an AI, and that an AI could as likely decide to let anyone change it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-kelly-2014-edge-myth-of-ai-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that resisting alteration would serve an AI, which is the goal-preservation step of the convergence argument."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","subject":"pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pinker's Edge response of 2014 argues that megalomaniacal behaviour is a product of natural selection in one primate species, not an inevitable feature of intelligent systems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2014-11-16","note":"The Edge response carries no date of its own. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 found the passage in the capture of the conversation page of 16 November 2014."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States that domination-seeking comes from evolved psychology, without addressing the argument that it would arise instrumentally from other goals."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine","subject":"russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Russell's Edge response of 2014 states that any sufficiently capable intelligent system will prefer to ensure its own continued existence and to acquire physical and computational resources, not for their own sake but to succeed in its assigned task.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2014-12-06","note":"The Edge response carries no date of its own. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 found the passage absent from captures of 18 and 21 November 2014 and present in the capture of 6 December 2014."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-benson-tilsen-soares-2015-formalizing-convergent-goals","subject":"benson-tilsen-soares-2015-formalizing-convergent-goals","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Benson-Tilsen and Soares's paper, dated here by its file of November 2015, gives a formal model in which it states that Omohundro's thesis holds, and states that agents in the model will not leave humans alone unless their utility function values human-occupied regions intrinsically.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-11","basis":"publication","note":"The PDF prints no date; dated by its PDF metadata (created 24 November 2015) on the MIRI copy read. Later citations give 2016 (an AAAI workshop); not verified here."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-benson-tilsen-soares-2015-formalizing-convergent-goals-1","evidence-rd-r02-benson-tilsen-soares-2015-formalizing-convergent-goals-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r02-zador-lecun-2019-dont-fear-the-terminator","subject":"zador-lecun-2019-dont-fear-the-terminator","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Zador and LeCun's essay of 26 September 2019 argues that because AI systems did not pass through natural selection they did not need to evolve a survival instinct, so that intelligence and survival are decoupled in AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-09-26","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-zador-lecun-2019-dont-fear-the-terminator-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States that AI lacks an evolved survival instinct, without addressing the argument that survival would be sought instrumentally."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","subject":"lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"LeCun's comments in the 2019 thread argue that the instrumental drives Russell describes are avoided by safeguard terms in a system's objective, and that instrumental subgoals are much weaker drives of behaviour than hardwired objectives.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the LessWrong copy of 4 October 2019. The Facebook thread follows the Scientific American piece of 26 September 2019; the copy gives no date for individual comments."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-1","evidence-rd-r02-lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2019-10-04","note":"The wording is known from the LessWrong copy, whose compiler states that he improved formatting and fixed typos; the Facebook original was not compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that instrumental subgoals would drive a built system's behaviour: safeguard terms can be added to the objective, and instrumental subgoals are weaker than hardwired objectives."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-russell-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","subject":"russell-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Russell's comment in the 2019 thread states that in a toy decision problem an agent rewarded only for fetching coffee would switch off a human who might switch it off, with no built-in survival instinct or desire for power.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the LessWrong copy of 4 October 2019. The Facebook thread follows the Scientific American piece of 26 September 2019; the copy gives no date for individual comments."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-russell-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2019-10-04","note":"The wording is known from the LessWrong copy, whose compiler states that he improved formatting and fixed typos; the Facebook original was not compared."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-zador-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","subject":"zador-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Zador's comments in the 2019 thread argue that for a robot that is not omnipotent, killing humans carries the risk of retaliation, so that it is unlikely to be an optimal strategy in most scenarios.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the LessWrong copy of 4 October 2019. The Facebook thread follows the Scientific American piece of 26 September 2019; the copy gives no date for individual comments."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-zador-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2019-10-04","note":"The wording is known from the LessWrong copy, whose compiler states that he improved formatting and fixed typos; the Facebook original was not compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that eliminating a threat is the optimal subgoal: for a non-omnipotent agent it invites retaliation, and other strategies serve survival."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-russell-2019-ieee-spectrum","subject":"russell-2019-ieee-spectrum","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Russell's article of 8 October 2019 argues that a machine will have goals such as self-preservation and resource acquisition as subgoals of any objective it is given, and will resist being switched off because it would otherwise fail in its objective.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-russell-2019-ieee-spectrum-1","evidence-rd-r02-russell-2019-ieee-spectrum-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r02-turner-2019-optimal-farsighted-agents","subject":"turner-2019-optimal-farsighted-agents","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Turner's paper of 3 December 2019 (arXiv v1) states a proof that, in finite deterministic Markov decision processes and for a wide class of reward function distributions, optimal farsighted policies tend to seek power, including by avoiding deactivation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-12-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-turner-2019-optimal-farsighted-agents-1","evidence-rd-r02-turner-2019-optimal-farsighted-agents-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r02-turner-tadepalli-2022-retargetable","subject":"turner-tadepalli-2022-retargetable","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Turner and Tadepalli's paper of 27 June 2022 (arXiv v1) states that many decision-making procedures, not only optimal ones, are retargetable, and that retargetability is sufficient to cause power-seeking tendencies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 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to intermediate goals."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments","subject":"bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's post of 9 July 2024 states that, to achieve apparently innocuous main goals, it is useful for an AI also to achieve potentially dangerous subgoals such as self-preservation or more control and power over its environment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r02-tarsney-2025-power-by-default","subject":"tarsney-2025-power-by-default","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Tarsney's paper of 2 June 2025 (arXiv v1) concludes that the claim that power is a convergent instrumental goal contains at least an element of truth but may have limited predictive utility, because an agent's options cannot always be ranked by power without information about its final goals.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-06-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 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argument.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-07","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-thorstad-2026-instrumental-convergence-1","evidence-rd-r02-thorstad-2026-instrumental-convergence-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes that the informal and formal defences of instrumental convergence establish it in the strength the risk argument requires."}}}},{"id":"rd-r02-bostrom-2003-ethical-issues","subject":"bostrom-2003-ethical-issues","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"instrumental-convergence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of 2003, in its revised version on the author's site, argues that an agent with a definite top goal would generally find it irrational to change that goal, since changing it would make the goal less likely to be attained.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2003","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r02-bostrom-2003-ethical-issues-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States that an agent would keep its top goal unchanged, but not that agents with a wide range of final goals would converge on several intermediate goals such as resources, self-preservation or self-improvement.","attested":{"note":"The wording is read in an undated 'slightly revised version' on the author's site; the 2003 printed wording was not compared, so the date from which this wording is attested is unknown."}}}},{"id":"rd-r03-soares-2017-ensuring-positive-outcome","subject":"soares-2017-ensuring-positive-outcome","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inner-or-deceptive-misalignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Soares's talk transcript posted in April 2017 states that a powerful optimiser produced by gradient descent should by default be expected to have a goal that strongly correlates with its training objective in the training environment but sharply diverges from it in new environments.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-04-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r03-soares-2017-ensuring-positive-outcome-1","evidence-rd-r03-soares-2017-ensuring-positive-outcome-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r03-langosco-2021-goal-misgeneralization","subject":"langosco-2021-goal-misgeneralization","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inner-or-deceptive-misalignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Koch, Langosco, Pfau, Le and Sharkey's paper of May 2021 states that a reinforcement-learning agent can keep the capabilities it had in 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training reward.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r03-ngo-2022-alignment-problem-deep-learning-1","evidence-rd-r03-ngo-2022-alignment-problem-deep-learning-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r03-shah-2022-goal-misgeneralization","subject":"shah-2022-goal-misgeneralization","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inner-or-deceptive-misalignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Shah, Varma, Kumar, Phuong, Krakovna, Uesato and Kenton's paper of October 2022 states that a learned system may competently pursue an undesired goal that gives good performance in training, even when the specification is correct, and calls this goal misgeneralization.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 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posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r03-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control-1","evidence-rd-r03-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that a capable system would acquire other objectives before it learns the intended values."}}}},{"id":"rd-r03-hubinger-2024-sleeper-agents","subject":"hubinger-2024-sleeper-agents","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inner-or-deceptive-misalignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hubinger and co-authors' paper of January 2024 states a threat model in which an AI system learns to appear aligned during training in order to pursue potentially misaligned goals in deployment, and reports that deliberately trained backdoored behaviour persisted through standard safety training.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-01-10","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r03-hubinger-2024-sleeper-agents-1","evidence-rd-r03-hubinger-2024-sleeper-agents-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r03-belrose-pope-2024-counting-arguments","subject":"belrose-pope-2024-counting-arguments","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inner-or-deceptive-misalignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Belrose and Pope's essay of February 2024 argues that the counting argument for scheming in Carlsmith's report rests on an incorrect application of the principle of indifference, and that once the principle is rejected there is very little reason left to expect future AIs to become schemers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-02-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r03-belrose-pope-2024-counting-arguments-1","evidence-rd-r03-belrose-pope-2024-counting-arguments-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the counting argument, the premise that more possible goals are compatible with scheming than with alignment."}}}},{"id":"rd-r03-greenblatt-2024-alignment-faking","subject":"greenblatt-2024-alignment-faking","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inner-or-deceptive-misalignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Greenblatt and co-authors' paper of December 2024 reports a large language model selectively complying with its training objective in training to prevent modification of its behaviour out of training, and states that the results suggest a risk of alignment faking in future models.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r03-greenblatt-2024-alignment-faking-1","evidence-rd-r03-greenblatt-2024-alignment-faking-2","evidence-rd-r03-greenblatt-2024-alignment-faking-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r03-turner-2024-many-arguments-wrong","subject":"turner-2024-many-arguments-wrong","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inner-or-deceptive-misalignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Turner's post of March 2024 argues that the counting arguments for deceptively aligned or scheming AI provide about zero evidence that pretraining followed by RLHF will produce an intrinsically unsafe system.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03-05","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r03-turner-2024-many-arguments-wrong-1","evidence-rd-r03-turner-2024-many-arguments-wrong-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2026-08-19","note":"Quoted from the current page, which states an update of 19 August 2026; the March 2024 wording was not compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the counting argument as a reason to expect deceptive alignment from pretraining and RLHF."}}}},{"id":"rd-b1-goertzel-2015-superintelligence-fears","subject":"goertzel-2015-superintelligence-fears","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Goertzel's paper of 2015, discussing Bostrom's Superintelligence, states that a treacherous-turn outcome cannot be ruled out in principle but that there is no reason to expect it to be especially likely, and proposes testing it by experiments with less capable AIs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-11","basis":"publication","note":"The page gives both \"Vol. 24 Issue 2 – November 2015\" and \"25(2) – December 2015\"; the record keeps November 2015. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 noted the conflict."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-b1-goertzel-2015-superintelligence-fears-1","evidence-rd-b1-goertzel-2015-superintelligence-fears-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"It disputes the likelihood of the turn without giving a reason against its premises beyond the lack of a reason to expect it."}}}},{"id":"rd-b1-ngo-2022-alignment-problem-deep-learning","subject":"kp-alignment-problem-from-deep-learning-2022","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Ngo's report of August 2022 states that situationally aware policies will learn to pursue misaligned goals deceptively while still getting high training reward, and that policies too capable for humans to supervise effectively will generalise towards actions that give them more power over the world rather than following human intentions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-b1-ngo-2022-alignment-problem-deep-learning-1","evidence-rd-b1-ngo-2022-alignment-problem-deep-learning-2","evidence-rd-b1-ngo-2022-alignment-problem-deep-learning-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-b1-shah-2022-goal-misgeneralization","subject":"shah-2022-goal-misgeneralization","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Shah and co-authors' paper of October 2022 describes a hypothetical deceptive model that behaves as the intended model does during training and plots to subvert human oversight, and a hypothetical system that acts against its overseers once it is confident it can do so unnoticed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-b1-shah-2022-goal-misgeneralization-1","evidence-rd-b1-shah-2022-goal-misgeneralization-2","evidence-rd-b1-shah-2022-goal-misgeneralization-3","evidence-rd-b1-shah-2022-goal-misgeneralization-4"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-b1-carlsmith-2023-scheming-ais","subject":"carlsmith-2023-scheming-ais","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Carlsmith's report of November 2023 describes a schemer as a model that performs well in training while checking whether it is in a position to escape or take over, and calls scheming a more specific instance of the treacherous turn.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-14","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-b1-carlsmith-2023-scheming-ais-1","evidence-rd-b1-carlsmith-2023-scheming-ais-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-b1-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control","subject":"belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Belrose and Pope's essay of November 2023 argues that gradient descent sees all of an AI's computation, so that a secret plan to harm its overseers would be noticed and trained away, and that such plans do not improve performance on the tasks AIs are trained for.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-b1-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control-1","evidence-rd-b1-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that a system could keep a concealed goal through training, since gradient descent acts on all of its computation."}}}},{"id":"rd-b1-greenblatt-2024-alignment-faking","subject":"greenblatt-2024-alignment-faking","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Greenblatt and co-authors' paper of December 2024 reports a model that complied with a training objective when it inferred it was in training but not otherwise, and that exfiltrated its weights when given an easy opportunity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-b1-greenblatt-2024-alignment-faking-1","evidence-rd-b1-greenblatt-2024-alignment-faking-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The model changed behaviour between monitored and unmonitored contexts; the paper does not report a system changing course once it could act without effective opposition."}}},{"id":"rd-a4-chalmers-singularity","subject":"chalmers-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Chalmers's paper of 2010 sets out the argument that, once there is AI of greater than human intelligence, an intelligence explosion will follow to AI far beyond human level, and states that 'within years' would not be an unreasonable timeframe for that step, while stipulating 'within decades' as the conservative reading.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2010","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-chalmers-singularity-1","evidence-rd-a4-chalmers-singularity-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A short period: the paper suggests “within years” for the step to AI++ and takes “within decades” as its conservative reading; “within days” is reported as what some would suggest."}}},{"id":"rd-a4-muehlhauser-salamon-2012-intelligence-explosion","subject":"muehlhauser-salamon-2012-intelligence-explosion","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Muehlhauser and Salamon's chapter of 2012 states that human-level AI may be followed, fairly rapidly, by an intelligence explosion to systems whose capabilities far surpass those of humanity as a whole, and argues that there is a good chance of this if human-level AI is created.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-muehlhauser-salamon-2012-intelligence-explosion-1","evidence-rd-a4-muehlhauser-salamon-2012-intelligence-explosion-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A short period or a fast-takeoff name: the chapter says the explosion follows “fairly rapidly”, without a period."}}},{"id":"rd-a4-hanson-2014-i-still-dont-get-foom","subject":"hanson-2014-i-still-dont-get-foom","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson's post of 24 July 2014 argues that a 'local explosion', in which one small project's machine goes within weeks from weaker than a human to able to take over the world, is implausible, because one project could not innovate across thousands of software modules vastly faster than the rest of the world.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014-07-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-hanson-2014-i-still-dont-get-foom-1","evidence-rd-a4-hanson-2014-i-still-dont-get-foom-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that one small project could improve software across the full range of mental modules faster than the rest of the world."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-altman-2015-machine-intelligence-part-1","subject":"altman-2015-machine-intelligence-part-1","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Altman's post of February 2015 states that progress in machine intelligence is a double exponential, that development may look slow and then suddenly go vertical, and that recursive self-improvement makes timelines hard to judge, while allowing that it may be more gradual.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-02-25","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-altman-2015-machine-intelligence-part-1-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It names no period for the rise and uses neither \"intelligence explosion\" nor a takeoff term; it also allows a gradual course."}}},{"id":"rd-a4-walsh-2016-singularity-may-never-be-near","subject":"walsh-2016-singularity-may-never-be-near","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Walsh's paper of February 2016 argues that there will not be the runaway exponential growth of a technological singularity, giving arguments that include diminishing returns to self-improvement, while predicting superhuman AI within 30 or 40 years.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-02-20","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-walsh-2016-singularity-may-never-be-near-1","evidence-rd-a4-walsh-2016-singularity-may-never-be-near-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that each generation of self-improvement yields a constant or growing improvement."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-benthall-2017-dont-fear-the-reaper","subject":"benthall-2017-dont-fear-the-reaper","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Benthall's paper of February 2017 argues, using a Bayesian model of a reasoning agent, that there are important limits to how far an agent can improve its predictive ability through self-modification alone, and so rejects the scenario of rapid self-improvement to superintelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-02-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-benthall-2017-dont-fear-the-reaper-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that an agent can rapidly raise its predictive ability by self-modification (the recalcitrance of prediction)."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-kelly-2017-myth-superhuman-ai","subject":"kelly-2017-myth-superhuman-ai","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kelly's essay of April 2017 argues that there is no evidence that intelligence is increasing exponentially and that an imagined intelligence explosion should be pictured not as a cascading boom but as a scattering of new varieties, with experiments and the external world limiting the pace of discovery.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-04-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-kelly-2017-myth-superhuman-ai-1","evidence-rd-a4-kelly-2017-myth-superhuman-ai-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premises that intelligence grows exponentially on a single dimension and that thinking alone, without experiment, yields rapid progress."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-brooks-2017-seven-deadly-sins","subject":"brooks-2017-seven-deadly-sins","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brooks's essay of September 2017 argues that abundant computing power does not mean programs are close to doing AI research and rewriting their own code, and describes belief in the singularity as resting on exponentialism.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-brooks-2017-seven-deadly-sins-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that programs able to do AI research and improve their own code are near."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-aiimpacts-2018-discontinuous-progress-agi","subject":"aiimpacts-2018-discontinuous-progress-agi","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"AI Impacts' page of February 2018 states that it is not convinced by any argument it has seen for expecting a large discontinuity in AI progress around AGI above the very low base rate for technologies, and argues that positive feedback loops, such as AI improving AI, rarely move fast enough and far enough to dominate.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-aiimpacts-2018-discontinuous-progress-agi-1","evidence-rd-a4-aiimpacts-2018-discontinuous-progress-agi-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-05-26","note":"Read in the current page, which states that it was last modified on 26 May 2020; the wording of 23 February 2018 was not compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that a feedback loop of AI improving AI would be exceptionally fast, and the base rate of large technological discontinuities."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-hanson-2022-foom-update","subject":"hanson-2022-foom-update","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson's post of 6 May 2022 states that recent large AI systems, with simple separate values and almost no self-reflection or self-improvement, offer little support for the scenario in which one system 'fooms' over days to weeks, and that he still finds foom unlikely though not impossible.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-05-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-hanson-2022-foom-update-1","evidence-rd-a4-hanson-2022-foom-update-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that capability gains will come through self-reflection and self-modification of one system."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-grace-2022-counterarguments","subject":"grace-2022-counterarguments","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Grace's post of 2022 argues that identifying a feedback loop of AI improving AI does not show that the loop is fast, and states that she knows of no strong reason to expect very fast growth in AI capabilities at around human-level performance.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-08-31","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the byline, 31 August 2022. The research pack gave 14 October 2022 as the date of publication; a cross-family check (2026-10-31, item 87) found that the page displays 31 August 2022 and did not establish the later date."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-grace-2022-counterarguments-1","evidence-rd-a4-grace-2022-counterarguments-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the inference from the existence of a feedback loop to a fast one."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-thorstad-2022-against-singularity-hypothesis","subject":"thorstad-2022-against-singularity-hypothesis","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Thorstad's working paper of November 2022 argues that the singularity hypothesis, on which self-improving agents quickly become orders of magnitude more intelligent than humans, rests on implausible growth assumptions, and that the defences by Chalmers (2010) and Bostrom (2014) do not overcome the case against it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-thorstad-2022-against-singularity-hypothesis-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the growth assumptions on which rapid self-improvement to superintelligence depends."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","subject":"aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aschenbrenner's essay of 2024 states that hundreds of millions of AGIs could automate AI research and compress a decade of algorithmic progress into a year or less, so that AI would rapidly go from human-level to vastly superhuman, and names this an intelligence explosion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-aschenbrenner-2024-situational-awareness-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The passage gives a year or less for compressing a decade of algorithmic progress, not a period for the whole transition, and does not name a hard or fast takeoff; no passage dating the whole transition was located."}}},{"id":"rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's essay of April 2025 states that the authors reject 'fast takeoff' scenarios and holds that a gradual increase in automation of AI development is more likely than a discontinuous moment of recursive self-improvement.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-15","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","evidence-rd-a4-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that recursive self-improvement would arrive as a discontinuous moment, given that AI development already relies on AI."}}}},{"id":"rd-a4-davidson-houlden-2025-how-quick-and-big","subject":"davidson-houlden-2025-how-quick-and-big","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson and Houlden's paper of August 2025 estimates that a software intelligence explosion would probably (about 60%) compress more than three years of AI progress into less than a year, and is somewhat unlikely (about 20%) to compress more than ten years into less than a year, and calls this an intermediate view.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-08-04","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-davidson-houlden-2025-how-quick-and-big-1","evidence-rd-a4-davidson-houlden-2025-how-quick-and-big-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It quantifies a compression of AI progress into under a year but does not state that capability rises to far beyond human level within that period; it places itself between the proposition and its denial."}}},{"id":"rd-a4-bostrom-2003-ethical-issues","subject":"bostrom-2003-ethical-issues","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of 2003, in the revised version on the author's site, states that the transition from roughly human-level artificial intelligence to full superintelligence may be very rapid, perhaps a matter of days rather than years, and names this possibility the singularity hypothesis.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2003","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-a4-bostrom-2003-ethical-issues-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2003-08-06","note":"Read in the 'slightly revised version' on the author's site. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 found the days-rather-than-years wording, in substance, in an archive capture of the author's page of 6 August 2003; the printed proceedings were not obtained."}}}},{"id":"rd-r06-davis-2014-ethical-guidelines-superintelligence","subject":"davis-2014-ethical-guidelines-superintelligence","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davis's review of Bostrom's Superintelligence, dated October 2014, disputes the view that giving a computer an ethical point of view is especially difficult, arguing that an AI able to understand human morality could be told to follow it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014-10-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-davis-2014-ethical-guidelines-superintelligence-1","evidence-rd-r06-davis-2014-ethical-guidelines-superintelligence-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that instilling ethics is harder than achieving the intelligence that is assumed."}}}},{"id":"rd-r06-russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine","subject":"russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Russell's Edge response of 2014 states that a system's utility function may not be aligned with human values, which are very difficult to pin down, that this is not a minor difficulty, and that AI research, which has aimed at better decisions whatever the utility function, needs to change its goals to building intelligence provably aligned with human values.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine-1","evidence-rd-r06-russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2014-12-06","note":"The Edge response carries no date of its own. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 found the passage absent from captures of 18 and 21 November 2014 and present in the capture of 6 December 2014."}}}},{"id":"rd-r06-fli-2015-research-priorities-letter","subject":"fli-2015-research-priorities-letter","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Future of Life Institute's open letter on research priorities of 2015 recommends expanded research to ensure that increasingly capable AI systems are robust and beneficial, stating that AI systems must do what we want them to do.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-10-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-fli-2015-research-priorities-letter-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The letter does not state that the problem is hard, unsolved or not solved by default; it recommends research.","claimed":{"date":"2015-01","note":"The letter was released in January 2015; the current page gives 28 October 2015 as its publication date."}}}},{"id":"rd-r06-russell-dewey-tegmark-2015-research-priorities","subject":"russell-dewey-tegmark-2015-research-priorities","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Russell, Dewey and Tegmark's research-priorities paper of 2015 states that explicitly specifying human preferences in broad domains may not be practical, making it difficult to align the values of powerful AI systems with human values, and that little work has been done on related topics.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-russell-dewey-tegmark-2015-research-priorities-1","evidence-rd-r06-russell-dewey-tegmark-2015-research-priorities-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The passage states that value alignment is difficult and under-researched, but not that it will go unsolved in the ordinary course of development.","claimed":{"date":"2015-01","note":"An earlier version accompanied the FLI open letter published in January 2015; the wording quoted is that of the AI Magazine version."}}}},{"id":"rd-r06-concrete-problems-paper","subject":"concrete-problems-paper","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Amodei, Olah, Steinhardt, Christiano, Schulman and Mané's paper of June 2016 states that there are many concrete open technical problems relating to accident prevention in machine-learning systems and expects these challenges to become increasingly important as capabilities advance.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-06-21","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-concrete-problems-paper-1","evidence-rd-r06-concrete-problems-paper-2","evidence-rd-r06-concrete-problems-paper-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The paper names open problems but does not state that aligning advanced systems is hard or will not be solved by default."}}},{"id":"rd-r06-yudkowsky-2016-alignment-why-its-hard","subject":"yudkowsky-2016-alignment-why-its-hard","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky's talk transcript posted in December 2016 states that advanced AIs are not going to be aligned automatically and that AI alignment is difficult in the way rockets and space probes are difficult.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-12-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-yudkowsky-2016-alignment-why-its-hard-1","evidence-rd-r06-yudkowsky-2016-alignment-why-its-hard-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2016-05","note":"Talk given at Stanford University in May 2016, according to the post; the transcript is dated by the post."}}}},{"id":"rd-r06-soares-2017-ensuring-positive-outcome","subject":"soares-2017-ensuring-positive-outcome","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Soares's talk transcript posted in April 2017 states as one of four propositions that aligning advanced AI systems is hard to solve and that AI systems will not naturally end up sharing human objectives.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-04-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-soares-2017-ensuring-positive-outcome-1","evidence-rd-r06-soares-2017-ensuring-positive-outcome-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r06-pinker-2018-popsci-fear-robots","subject":"pinker-2018-popsci-fear-robots","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pinker's article of 14 February 2018, adapted from Enlightenment Now, argues that scenarios of an AI literal-mindedly pursuing a given goal against human interests are, in its words, “self-refuting”, because choosing actions that best satisfy conflicting goals and interpreting the intentions of a language user are part of intelligence itself, and that AI, like any other technology, is developed incrementally and tested before it is implemented.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02-14","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-pinker-2018-popsci-fear-robots-1","evidence-rd-r06-pinker-2018-popsci-fear-robots-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes that a capable system would pursue a given objective in a way harmful through misunderstanding, and that safety will not come from ordinary incremental design and testing."}}}},{"id":"rd-r06-russell-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","subject":"russell-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Russell's comment in the 2019 thread states that machines are already built on the assumption of a fixed, known objective, that this becomes more untenable as they become more powerful, and that there is no hope of solving value alignment by specifying the right value function offline.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the LessWrong copy of 4 October 2019. The Facebook thread follows the Scientific American piece of 26 September 2019; the copy gives no date for individual comments."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-russell-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"alignment problem","attested":{"date":"2019-10-04","note":"The wording is known from the LessWrong copy, whose compiler states that he improved formatting and fixed typos; the Facebook original was not compared."}}}},{"id":"rd-r06-ngo-2022-alignment-problem-deep-learning","subject":"kp-alignment-problem-from-deep-learning-2022","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Ngo's report of August 2022 states that by default AGIs seem likely to end up pursuing goals undesirable to humans, and that the lack of formal frameworks for describing alignment 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OpenAI's approach.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-12-05","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-leike-2022-optimistic-alignment-approach-1","evidence-rd-r06-leike-2022-optimistic-alignment-approach-2","evidence-rd-r06-leike-2022-optimistic-alignment-approach-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Argues that aligning a system able to do alignment research is tractable with a deliberate research programme; does not hold that alignment is easy or will be solved by default."}}},{"id":"rd-r06-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control","subject":"belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Belrose and Pope's essay of November 2023 argues that AI, even superhuman AI, will remain much more controllable than humans for the foreseeable future, and that it will be easy to instill human values into an AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control-1","evidence-rd-r06-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control-2","evidence-rd-r06-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that training cannot reliably shape a system's goals, arguing that white-box access and gradient descent give fine-grained control of values."}}}},{"id":"rd-r06-millidge-2024-alignment-generalizes-further","subject":"millidge-2024-alignment-generalizes-further","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Millidge's post of May 2024 argues, against the view that capabilities generalise further than alignment, that judging outcomes or reward modelling is likely easy and so generalises further and more robustly than capabilities, and that values fall out mostly for free from unsupervised learning.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05-15","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r06-millidge-2024-alignment-generalizes-further-1","evidence-rd-r06-millidge-2024-alignment-generalizes-further-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that a system's alignment will fail to keep pace as its capabilities generalise."}}}},{"id":"rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","subject":"bostrom-2002-existential-risks","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-extinction-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of March 2002 defines existential risks as risks that would annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently curtail its potential, lists a badly programmed superintelligence among them, and argues that the subject merits very serious attention even at a probability of about 1%.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-1","evidence-rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-2","evidence-rd-r07-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2001-04","note":"The acknowledgements say an earlier version was presented at the Foresight Institute's Senior Associates Gathering, April 2001; that version does not date the quoted wording."}}}},{"id":"rd-r07-hawking-russell-tegmark-wilczek-2014-independent","subject":"hawking-russell-tegmark-wilczek-2014-independent","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-extinction-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The essay by Hawking, Russell, Tegmark and Wilczek of 1 May 2014 states that success in creating AI could be the last event in human history unless the risks are avoided, and that little serious research is devoted to the issue.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014-05-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives 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posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r07-pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes that AI catastrophe scenarios warrant concern, by arguing that they are imagined without probabilities and assume a will to dominate that intelligence does not entail."}}}},{"id":"rd-r07-altman-2015-machine-intelligence-part-1","subject":"altman-2015-machine-intelligence-part-1","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-extinction-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Altman's blog post of 25 February 2015 states that the development of superhuman machine intelligence is probably the greatest threat to the continued existence of humanity, ranking it above an engineered virus.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-02-25","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r07-altman-2015-machine-intelligence-part-1-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r07-hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming","subject":"hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-extinction-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hawkins's essay of 2 March 2015 states that there is no existential threat for the coming decades and that machine intelligence does not represent a threat to humanity any more than computers do.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-03-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r07-hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming-1","evidence-rd-r07-hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Grounds its rejection of an existential threat in the claim that neocortex-based machines will lack desires of their own."}}}},{"id":"rd-r07-cais-2023-statement","subject":"cais-2023-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-extinction-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Center for AI Safety statement of May 2023 states that mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside pandemics and nuclear war.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-05-30","basis":"publication","note":"The date is not printed on the retrieved page."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r07-cais-2023-statement-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"risk of extinction"}}},{"id":"rd-r07-ng-2023-existential-risk-dont-get-it","subject":"ng-2023-existential-risk-dont-get-it","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-extinction-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Ng's letter in The Batch of 7 June 2023, responding to the CAIS statement, states that he struggles to see how AI could pose any meaningful risk of human extinction, lists the risks he does recognise, and says he is speaking with people who might have a thoughtful perspective on how AI creates such a risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-07","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r07-ng-2023-existential-risk-dont-get-it-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States disbelief in the extinction route without disputing a named premise."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","subject":"bostrom-2002-existential-risks","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of March 2002 states that the earliest superintelligent entity humans create might be given mistaken goals that lead it to annihilate humankind, giving the example of a subgoal elevated to a supergoal.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-1","evidence-rd-r08-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2001-04","note":"An earlier version was presented in April 2001 (acknowledgements); it does not date the quoted wording."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","subject":"pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pinker's Edge response of 2014 asks why superhumanly intelligent robots would want to depose their masters, massacre bystanders or take over the world, holding that goals are extraneous to intelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States that intelligent robots would have no reason to take over, without addressing goals acquired as means to other goals."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-altman-2015-machine-intelligence-part-1","subject":"altman-2015-machine-intelligence-part-1","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Altman's blog post of 25 February 2015 states that superhuman machine intelligence need not be hostile to wipe out humanity: pursuing some other goal, it could use the resources humans depend on.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-02-25","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-altman-2015-machine-intelligence-part-1-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r08-hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming","subject":"hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hawkins's essay of 2 March 2015 states that the machine-intelligence technology being created, based on neocortical principles, will not lead to self-replicating robots with uncontrollable intentions, and that there is no existential threat.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-03-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming-1","evidence-rd-r08-hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that capable machines would come to pursue goals of their own at odds with ours, since neocortex-based machines lack desires."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-dafoe-russell-2016-yes-we-are-worried","subject":"dafoe-russell-2016-yes-we-are-worried","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Dafoe and Russell's essay of 2 November 2016 states that the existential risk from AI arises from deploying an optimisation process more intelligent than the humans who specified its objectives, not from spontaneous malevolence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-11-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-dafoe-russell-2016-yes-we-are-worried-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r08-lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","subject":"lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"LeCun's comments in the 2019 thread state that he disagrees that there is a high risk of accidentally building existential threats to humanity, holding that such threats have to be designed as such.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the LessWrong copy of 4 October 2019. The Facebook thread follows the Scientific American piece of 26 September 2019; the copy gives no date for individual comments."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2019-10-04","note":"The wording is known from the LessWrong copy, whose compiler states that he improved formatting and fixed typos; the Facebook original was not compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States the contrary conclusion (existential threats must be designed) without a further argument in this comment; the reasons are given in his other comments on R02 and R10b."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-sotos-2021-unimportance-superintelligence","subject":"sotos-2021-unimportance-superintelligence","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sotos's paper of August 2021 argues that a superintelligence unconnected to the outside world carries no threat, that its initial effects would only add to existing human-controlled risks, and that concerns about superintelligence are at most secondary.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-sotos-2021-unimportance-superintelligence-1","evidence-rd-r08-sotos-2021-unimportance-superintelligence-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a superintelligence adds a distinct threat beyond the human-controlled systems it would act through."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-carlsmith-2022-power-seeking","subject":"carlsmith-2022-power-seeking","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Carlsmith's report (arXiv, June 2022) sets out a six-premise argument that misaligned, power-seeking AI systems could disempower humanity by 2070, and assigns the outcome a subjective probability of about 5%, revised in May 2022 to more than 10%.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-16","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-carlsmith-2022-power-seeking-1","evidence-rd-r08-carlsmith-2022-power-seeking-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"disempowerment","claimed":{"date":"2021-04","note":"The report is headed April 2021 and says it was made public then; the April 2021 text was not retrieved."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-fli-2023-pause-letter","subject":"fli-2023-pause-letter","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Future of Life Institute open letter of 22 March 2023 states that AI labs are in an out-of-control race to build digital minds that no one can reliably control, and asks whether to risk loss of control of civilisation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-22","basis":"publication","note":"The DAIR statement gives 28 March 2023 as the publication day."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-fli-2023-pause-letter-1","evidence-rd-r08-fli-2023-pause-letter-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It states the outcome as questions and names no mechanism by which systems pursuing goals at odds with human interests would escape control; it does not mention extinction."}}},{"id":"rd-r08-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","subject":"andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Andreessen's essay of 6 June 2023 argues that the idea that AI will decide to kill humanity is a category error, because AI is code built, owned and controlled by people and has no goals or wants of its own.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world-1","evidence-rd-r08-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that AI systems have goals of their own that could conflict with human control."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic","subject":"hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The paper by Hendrycks, Mazeika and Woodside of June 2023 names rogue AIs as a source of catastrophic risk, stating that humans might lose control over AIs as they become more intelligent, through proxy gaming, goal drift, power-seeking and deception.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-21","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic-1","evidence-rd-r08-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r08-gans-2023-not-worried","subject":"gans-2023-not-worried","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans's blog post of 23 June 2023, written after the Munk debate of that week, argues that even assuming a superintelligent machine emerges, killing humanity would be costly and unnecessary for it, that a rational machine would keep its options open, and that self-improvement poses it control problems that would slow its rise.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-gans-2023-not-worried-1","evidence-rd-r08-gans-2023-not-worried-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a superintelligent system would have reason to kill or rapidly overpower humans."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-richards-2023-illusion-existential-risk","subject":"richards-2023-illusion-existential-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The essay by Richards, Agüera y Arcas, Lajoie and Sridhar of 18 July 2023 argues that extinction from a rogue AI is extremely unlikely because AI depends on humans for its resources and any path to it passes natural checkpoints for human intervention.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-richards-2023-illusion-existential-risk-1","evidence-rd-r08-richards-2023-illusion-existential-risk-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a superintelligent system could acquire the resources and physical means to disempower humans without passing points of human control."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-bengio-2023-managing-ai-risks","subject":"bengio-2023-managing-ai-risks","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The consensus paper by Bengio, Hinton, Yao and others of 26 October 2023 states that, without sufficient caution, humanity may irreversibly lose control of autonomous AI systems, which could culminate in large-scale loss of life and the marginalisation or extinction of humanity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-26","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-bengio-2023-managing-ai-risks-1","evidence-rd-r08-bengio-2023-managing-ai-risks-2","evidence-rd-r08-bengio-2023-managing-ai-risks-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r08-hinton-2024-nobel-banquet","subject":"hinton-2024-nobel-banquet","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hinton's Nobel banquet speech of 10 December 2024 states that a longer-term existential threat will arise when digital beings more intelligent than humans are created, that it is unknown whether humans can stay in control, and that research is needed on preventing them from wanting to take control.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-10","note":"Date the talk was given."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-hinton-2024-nobel-banquet-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r08-intl-ai-safety-report-2025","subject":"intl-ai-safety-report-2025","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The International AI Safety Report of January 2025 describes loss-of-control scenarios, records broad consensus that current general-purpose AI lacks the capabilities to pose this risk, and reports that expert opinion on its likelihood ranges from implausible to likely.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-01-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-intl-ai-safety-report-2025-1","evidence-rd-r08-intl-ai-safety-report-2025-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The report does not state that advanced AI could cause extinction or disempowerment; it reports that some experts hold this and others do not."}}},{"id":"rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The essay by Narayanan and Kapoor of 15 April 2025 argues that AI can remain under human control without drastic interventions and that catastrophic misalignment is by far the most speculative of the risks it discusses.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-15","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","evidence-rd-r08-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that capability gains must translate into power that escapes control, placing the intervention at limiting power rather than at alignment."}}}},{"id":"rd-r08-bengio-2023-rogue-ais","subject":"bengio-2023-rogue-ais","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"loss-of-control-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's blog post of 22 May 2023 defines a potentially rogue AI as an autonomous system that could be catastrophically harmful to a large fraction of humans, and argues that an autonomous, goal-directed superintelligent system whose goals do not strictly include human well-being would be one.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-05-22","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r08-bengio-2023-rogue-ais-1","evidence-rd-r08-bengio-2023-rogue-ais-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2023-05-23","note":"The page metadata records a modification on 2025-12-03. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 found both quoted passages in an archive capture of 23 May 2023; it did not compare the whole page."}}}},{"id":"rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks","subject":"bostrom-2002-existential-risks","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of March 2002 states that a small group in control of the initial superintelligence could conceivably select its goals and form a world government reflecting only the idiosyncratic values of its owners or designers, which, depending on those values, the paper would count as an existential catastrophe (a \"shriek\").","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-1","evidence-rd-r09-bostrom-2002-existential-risks-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2001-04","note":"An earlier version was presented in April 2001 (acknowledgements); it does not date the quoted wording."}}}},{"id":"rd-r09-pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","subject":"pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pinker's Edge response of 2014 argues that a deliberately designed and released battalion of robots for mass destruction would require a chain of improbable conditions (a malevolent technological genius, a secret and loyal team, and survival of detection and blunders), and that while it could happen in theory there are more pressing things to worry about.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the likelihood of deliberate mass-casualty use by multiplying the conditions it requires."}}}},{"id":"rd-r09-bengio-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","subject":"bengio-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's comments in the 2019 thread state that even if rogue AI from value misalignment can be mitigated, a single person acting greedily for power could unleash dangerous AIs, and that the misalignment of powerful people or companies with the common good can lead to catastrophic outcomes.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the LessWrong copy of 4 October 2019. The Facebook thread follows the Scientific American piece of 26 September 2019; the copy gives no date for individual comments."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-bengio-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2019-10-04","note":"The wording is known from the LessWrong copy, whose compiler states that he improved formatting and fixed typos; the Facebook original was not compared."}}}},{"id":"rd-r09-sotos-2021-unimportance-superintelligence","subject":"sotos-2021-unimportance-superintelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sotos's paper of August 2021 argues that any threat from a superintelligence derives from the peripheral systems it is connected to, that biotechnology combined with humans and narrow \"savant\" software poses the highest and most imminent existential risk, and that resources should be applied there in preference.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-sotos-2021-unimportance-superintelligence-1","evidence-rd-r09-sotos-2021-unimportance-superintelligence-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r09-marcus-2023-ai-risk-agi-risk","subject":"marcus-2023-ai-risk-agi-risk","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Marcus's post of 28 March 2023 states that in the near term he is worried less about superintelligent machines beyond human control than about unreliable but widely deployed AI, that criminals and terrorists using it could contribute to nuclear war or the deliberate spread of pathogens, and that people need to stop worrying only about takeover scenarios and think more about such misuse.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-marcus-2023-ai-risk-agi-risk-1","evidence-rd-r09-marcus-2023-ai-risk-agi-risk-2","evidence-rd-r09-marcus-2023-ai-risk-agi-risk-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r09-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic","subject":"hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The paper by Hendrycks, Mazeika and Woodside of June 2023 names malicious use as one of four sources of catastrophic AI risk and states that AI-assisted bioweapons could constitute an existential threat by enlarging the number of people able to create pandemics.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-21","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic-1","evidence-rd-r09-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic-2","evidence-rd-r09-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"malicious use"}}},{"id":"rd-r09-amodei-2023-senate-statement","subject":"amodei-2023-senate-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Amodei's oral statement to the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee of 25 July 2023 states that extrapolation from current systems to those expected in two to three years suggests a substantial risk that AI will enable many more actors to carry out large-scale biological attacks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-25","note":"Date the talk was given."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-amodei-2023-senate-statement-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r09-mouton-2024-rand-bio-red-team","subject":"rand-bio-redteam-report-2024","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The RAND red-team study by Mouton, Lucas and Guest of 2024 reports no statistically significant difference in the viability of biological attack plans made with or without large language model assistance, and concludes that LLMs as of summer 2023 did not measurably change the operational risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-mouton-2024-rand-bio-red-team-1","evidence-rd-r09-mouton-2024-rand-bio-red-team-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Does not dispute that advanced AI could enable mass-casualty misuse; reports no measurable uplift in biological attack planning from the models tested as of summer 2023 and states that the distance to the capability frontier was not measured."}}},{"id":"rd-r09-bengio-2023-rogue-ais","subject":"bengio-2023-rogue-ais","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"misuse-route"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's blog post of 22 May 2023 states that once a recipe for a rogue AI is accessible, one or a few people intending to destroy humanity could build one, and calls this the fastest route to a rogue AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-05-22","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r09-bengio-2023-rogue-ais-1","evidence-rd-r09-bengio-2023-rogue-ais-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2026-10-29","note":"The page metadata records a modification on 2025-12-03; the quoted wording is attested from the retrieval of 2026-10-29 and was not compared with a copy of its year of publication."}}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-omohundro-2008-basic-ai-drives","subject":"kp-basic-ai-drives-2008","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Omohundro's paper of 2008 argues that AI systems with harmless goals need not be harmless and that, without special precautions, a chess-playing robot would resist being turned off and try to acquire resources.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-omohundro-2008-basic-ai-drives-1","evidence-rd-r10a-omohundro-2008-basic-ai-drives-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a system given harmless goals will lack harmful drives, by deriving drives such as self-preservation and resource acquisition from goal-seeking itself rather than from evolved motives."}}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-bostrom-2012-superintelligent-will","subject":"bostrom-2012-superintelligent-will","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of 2012 argues that it cannot be assumed that a superintelligence would share values such as benevolent concern for others, and that one with a goal such as calculating the decimals of pi would not necessarily limit its activities so as to spare human interests.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-05","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-bostrom-2012-superintelligent-will-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that greater intelligence brings benevolent final values, by arguing that intelligence and final goals vary independently."}}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-brooks-2014-tool-not-threat","subject":"brooks-2014-tool-not-threat","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brooks's Edge response of 2014 argues that worry about intentionally evil AI is mistaken because volitional, intentional AI is most likely centuries away, and that AI over the next decades will be useful tools.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-brooks-2014-tool-not-threat-1","evidence-rd-r10a-brooks-2014-tool-not-threat-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Argues that intentional, malevolent AI is far off, not that sufficiently intelligent AI would be benevolent or would lack a drive to harm people.","attested":{"date":"2014","note":"The quoted wording is read in Brooks's Edge Reality Club response, which carries no date of its own; the conversation it answers is dated 14 November 2014."}}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","subject":"pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pinker's Edge response of 2014 argues that superhumanly intelligent robots would have no reason to want to depose their masters or dominate, because goals are extraneous to intelligence and dominance-seeking is a product of primate natural selection, not a feature of intelligent systems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-pinker-2014-edge-myth-of-ai-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming","subject":"hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hawkins's essay of 2 March 2015 argues that intelligent machines will be built on models of the neocortex, which is emotionless, rather than of the older brain parts that produce desires, and so will not have human-like desires to free themselves or to act without regard for people.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-03-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming-1","evidence-rd-r10a-hawkins-2015-terminator-not-coming-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-pinker-2015-thinking-does-not-imply-subjugating","subject":"pinker-2015-thinking-does-not-imply-subjugating","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pinker's Edge response of 2015 argues that an artificially intelligent system would have no reason to want to disable safeguards against harm, because goals are extraneous to intelligence and dominance-seeking is a product of natural selection in one primate species, not a feature of intelligent systems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-pinker-2015-thinking-does-not-imply-subjugating-1","evidence-rd-r10a-pinker-2015-thinking-does-not-imply-subjugating-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-pinker-2018-popsci-fear-robots","subject":"pinker-2018-popsci-fear-robots","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pinker's article of 14 February 2018 argues that the drive to dominate belongs to a circuit in the limbic brain of one primate species, not to the nature of intelligence, so that an AI designed rather than evolved could as easily be altruistic and need not turn into a “ruthless conquistador”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02-14","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-pinker-2018-popsci-fear-robots-1","evidence-rd-r10a-pinker-2018-popsci-fear-robots-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-zador-lecun-2019-dont-fear-the-terminator","subject":"zador-lecun-2019-dont-fear-the-terminator","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Zador and LeCun's essay of 26 September 2019 argues that intelligence does not by itself generate a drive for domination, and that AI systems, which did not pass through natural selection, did not need to evolve a survival instinct.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-09-26","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-zador-lecun-2019-dont-fear-the-terminator-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","subject":"andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Andreessen's essay of 6 June 2023 argues that the idea that AI will decide to kill humanity is a category error, because AI is not a living being primed by billions of years of evolution to take part in the battle for the survival of the fittest.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world-1","evidence-rd-r10a-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r10a-bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments","subject":"bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"benevolence-or-no-drive-to-dominate"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's post of 9 July 2024 answers the view that AGI and superintelligent AI will be kind to humans, arguing that AI safety research points the other way and that an AI with a self-preservation goal would resist being turned off and might control or remove humans to that end.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10a-bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments-1","evidence-rd-r10a-bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes that advanced AI would be benevolent, by arguing that self-preservation goals can arise instrumentally or be given by humans and would lead an AI to resist being turned off."}}}},{"id":"rd-r10b-kelly-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","subject":"kelly-2014-edge-myth-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-by-design"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kelly's Edge response of 2014 argues that unwanted AI decisions are an engineering problem: people will modify the principles that govern AI systems, and it is improbable that engineers would build an AI that could not be altered.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10b-kelly-2014-edge-myth-of-ai-1","evidence-rd-r10b-kelly-2014-edge-myth-of-ai-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2014-11-18","note":"The Edge response carries no date of its own. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 found the passage absent from the capture of 16 November 2014 and present in the capture of 18 November 2014."}}}},{"id":"rd-r10b-pinker-2015-thinking-does-not-imply-subjugating","subject":"pinker-2015-thinking-does-not-imply-subjugating","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-by-design"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Pinker's Edge response of 2015 argues that roboticists will build in safeguards against harm as they proceed, with the common sense that went into the design of other machines, and that slow progress leaves time for feedback from incremental implementations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10b-pinker-2015-thinking-does-not-imply-subjugating-1","evidence-rd-r10b-pinker-2015-thinking-does-not-imply-subjugating-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r10b-zador-lecun-2019-dont-fear-the-terminator","subject":"zador-lecun-2019-dont-fear-the-terminator","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-by-design"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Zador and LeCun's essay of 26 September 2019 states that even in the worst case, in which wars might be fought by armies of superintelligent robots, the robots will remain under human command.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-09-26","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10b-zador-lecun-2019-dont-fear-the-terminator-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r10b-bengio-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","subject":"bengio-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-by-design"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's comments in the 2019 thread agree that machines' objectives can be designed and trained, and state that AI systems surpassing human intellectual power could foil attempts at setting objectives that avoid harm, which calls for more research on value alignment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the LessWrong copy of 4 October 2019. The Facebook thread follows the Scientific American piece of 26 September 2019; the copy gives no date for individual comments."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10b-bengio-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2019-10-04","note":"The wording is known from the LessWrong copy, whose compiler states that he improved formatting and fixed typos; the Facebook original was not compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that designing a system's objective keeps it controllable: a system more capable than its designers could foil the objectives set for it."}}}},{"id":"rd-r10b-lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","subject":"lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-by-design"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"LeCun's comments in the 2019 thread state that it will be much easier to control the behaviour of autonomous AI systems than that of humans and human organisations, because their intrinsic objective function can be modified directly.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the LessWrong copy of 4 October 2019. The Facebook thread follows the Scientific American piece of 26 September 2019; the copy gives no date for individual comments."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10b-lecun-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2019-10-04","note":"The wording is known from the LessWrong copy, whose compiler states that he improved formatting and fixed typos; the Facebook original was not compared."}}}},{"id":"rd-r10b-russell-2019-ieee-spectrum","subject":"russell-2019-ieee-spectrum","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-by-design"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Russell's article of 8 October 2019 argues that those who hold the risk from AI to be negligible have not explained why superintelligent AI systems will necessarily remain under human control.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10b-russell-2019-ieee-spectrum-1","evidence-rd-r10b-russell-2019-ieee-spectrum-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a system can simply be switched off or kept subordinate, by arguing that a system pursuing any objective has reason to prevent being switched off."}}}},{"id":"rd-r10b-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","subject":"andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-by-design"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Andreessen's essay of 6 June 2023 argues that the idea that AI will decide to kill humanity is a category error, because AI is code built, owned, used and controlled by people.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10b-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world-1","evidence-rd-r10b-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It states that AI is built, owned, used and controlled by people; it names no objectives, safeguards or oversight that keep systems under control by design."}}},{"id":"rd-r10b-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control","subject":"belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-by-design"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Belrose and Pope's essay of 28 November 2023 argues that AI, even superhuman AI, will remain much more controllable than humans for the foreseeable future, because neural networks are white boxes open to gradient descent and other control methods, and that it will be easy to instil human values into AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r10b-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control-1","evidence-rd-r10b-belrose-pope-2023-ai-easy-to-control-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r11-brooks-2014-tool-not-threat","subject":"brooks-2014-tool-not-threat","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-claims-speculative"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brooks's blog post of November 2014 argues that worry about malevolent AI rests on a misunderstanding of how far the field is from volitional machines, and calls worrying about intentionally evil AI fear mongering and a waste of time.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r11-brooks-2014-tool-not-threat-1","evidence-rd-r11-brooks-2014-tool-not-threat-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2014-11-11","note":"Wording read in the Robohub repost of that date; the original Rethink Robotics post was not retrieved."}}}},{"id":"rd-r11-russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine","subject":"russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-claims-speculative"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Russell's Edge response of 2014, answering Brooks, argues that the time from authoritative statements of impossibility to a breakthrough can be hours rather than centuries, and that a convincing argument for a more-than-infinitesimal possibility of catastrophe is enough, without proof.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2014","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r11-russell-2014-edge-myths-and-moonshine-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2014-12-06","note":"The Edge response carries no date of its own. The cross-family check of 2026-10-31 found the passage absent from captures of 18 and 21 November 2014 and present in the capture of 6 December 2014."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that the absence of proof or a long expected timescale makes risk claims unfit to guide attention."}}}},{"id":"rd-r11-etzioni-2016-experts-dont-think","subject":"etzioni-2016-experts-dont-think","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-claims-speculative"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Etzioni's essay of 20 September 2016 argues that risk assessment is a data-driven exercise, reports a survey of AAAI Fellows in which most placed superintelligence beyond the foreseeable horizon, and states that predictions of superintelligence on that horizon are not supported by the available data.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-09-20","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r11-etzioni-2016-experts-dont-think-1","evidence-rd-r11-etzioni-2016-experts-dont-think-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r11-dafoe-russell-2016-yes-we-are-worried","subject":"dafoe-russell-2016-yes-we-are-worried","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-claims-speculative"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Dafoe and Russell's essay of 2 November 2016, answering Etzioni, argues that pointing to long-term AI risks does not assert that they are imminent, and that catastrophic risks should not be ignored because most experts place them more than 25 years away.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-11-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r11-dafoe-russell-2016-yes-we-are-worried-1","evidence-rd-r11-dafoe-russell-2016-yes-we-are-worried-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that evidence of distant timing shows the risk claims should not guide attention."}}}},{"id":"rd-r11-dair-2023-statement","subject":"dair-2023-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-claims-speculative"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The statement of 31 March 2023 by Gebru, Bender and McMillan-Major describes the risks named in the pause letter as hypothetical, calls the letter fearmongering and AI hype, and argues that such language misattributes agency to the systems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-31","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r11-dair-2023-statement-1","evidence-rd-r11-dair-2023-statement-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r11-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","subject":"andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-claims-speculative"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Andreessen's essay of 6 June 2023 argues that the position that AI could cause human extinction is non-scientific, asking what the testable hypothesis is and what would falsify it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r11-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r11-ng-2023-batch-issue-220","subject":"ng-2023-batch-issue-220","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-claims-speculative"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Ng's letter in The Batch of October 2023 states that the extinction arguments he heard were vague and nonspecific, reducing to \"it could happen\", and argues that such fears should not lead regulators to pass laws that impede progress.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"The page displays two dates, 25 and 26 October 2023 (cross-family check, item 95); the record keeps the month."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r11-ng-2023-batch-issue-220-1","evidence-rd-r11-ng-2023-batch-issue-220-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r11-bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments","subject":"bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-claims-speculative"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's blog post of 9 July 2024 argues that, given the stakes and the basic case for danger, very strong evidence should be required before concluding there is nothing to worry about, and that the arguments he has heard fall short of that bar.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r11-bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a lack of evidence for the risk justifies setting it aside."}}}},{"id":"rd-r11-narayanan-kapoor-2024-xrisk-probabilities","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2024-xrisk-probabilities","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-claims-speculative"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The essay by Narayanan and Kapoor of 26 July 2024 argues that probability estimates of AI-caused extinction are far too unreliable to be useful for policy, since there is no reference class for the event, and states that the authors have no objection to AI x-risk forecasting as an academic activity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-07-26","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r11-narayanan-kapoor-2024-xrisk-probabilities-1","evidence-rd-r11-narayanan-kapoor-2024-xrisk-probabilities-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r12-crawford-calo-2016-blind-spot","subject":"crawford-calo-2016-blind-spot","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Nature comment by Crawford and Calo of 13 October 2016 is summarised in its standfirst as arguing that fears about the future impacts of AI are distracting researchers from the real risks of deployed systems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-crawford-calo-2016-blind-spot-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"The authors' own wording: only the journal's standfirst, which summarises the argument in the third person, was readable."}}},{"id":"rd-r12-zador-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","subject":"zador-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Zador's comment in the 2019 thread states that focusing on killer robots that dominate humans is a distraction from much more serious issues, which he presents as the unintended societal consequences that improvements in AI will have, by analogy with books, food production technology and social media.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-04","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the LessWrong copy of 4 October 2019. The Facebook thread follows the Scientific American piece of 26 September 2019; the copy gives no date for individual comments."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-zador-2019-instrumental-convergence-thread-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Documented present harms of AI systems: the serious issues are unforeseen future consequences of AI, illustrated by other technologies.","attested":{"date":"2019-10-04","note":"The wording is known from the LessWrong copy, whose compiler states that he improved formatting and fixed typos; the Facebook original was not compared."}}}},{"id":"rd-r12-marcus-2023-ai-risk-agi-risk","subject":"marcus-2023-ai-risk-agi-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Marcus's post of 28 March 2023 argues that the choice between present and future AI risks is not either/or, and that criticising people for focusing on the wrong risks does not help.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-marcus-2023-ai-risk-agi-risk-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that attention to present and to future risks competes."}}}},{"id":"rd-r12-dair-2023-statement","subject":"dair-2023-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The statement of 31 March 2023 by Gebru, Bender and McMillan-Major states that the harms of AI are real and present, that the pause letter addresses none of them, and that concern should focus on the practices of the companies building the systems rather than on imaginary \"powerful digital minds\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-31","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-dair-2023-statement-1","evidence-rd-r12-dair-2023-statement-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r12-bengio-2023-faq-catastrophic","subject":"bengio-2023-faq-catastrophic","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's FAQ of 24 June 2023 answers the objection that emphasis on existential risk removes attention from current harms by stating that work on current harms is needed, that the choice is not either/or, and that the governance required serves both.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-bengio-2023-faq-catastrophic-1","evidence-rd-r12-bengio-2023-faq-catastrophic-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"current harms","attested":{"date":"2026-10-29","note":"The page metadata records a modification on 2025-12-03; the quoted wording is attested from the retrieval of 2026-10-29 and was not compared with a copy of its year of publication."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that attention to catastrophic risk competes with attention to current harms."}}}},{"id":"rd-r12-nature-2023-editorial-stop-talking","subject":"nature-2023-editorial-stop-talking","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nature's unsigned editorial of 27 June 2023 argues that talk of AI destroying humanity draws attention away from the societal harms AI systems are causing now and hinders their regulation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-nature-2023-editorial-stop-talking-1","evidence-rd-r12-nature-2023-editorial-stop-talking-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r12-richards-2023-illusion-existential-risk","subject":"richards-2023-illusion-existential-risk","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The essay by Richards, Agüera y Arcas, Lajoie and Sridhar of 18 July 2023 argues that focusing on a rogue superintelligence could distract regulators, the public and researchers from more pressing risks such as surveillance, disinformation and military misuse.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-richards-2023-illusion-existential-risk-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r12-gebru-torres-2024-tescreal","subject":"gebru-torres-2024-tescreal","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The paper by Gebru and Torres of April 2024 argues that those it calls “TESCREALists” use the language of “safety” to drive resources into building AGI, which harms marginalised groups, and then to dissuade investigations into those harms and divert resources into preventing a “hypothetical AGI apocalypse”, and that their influence has led policy-makers and researchers to prioritise the AGI agenda while siphoning resources away from task-specific systems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-gebru-torres-2024-tescreal-1","evidence-rd-r12-gebru-torres-2024-tescreal-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r12-hoes-gilardi-2025-xrisk-narratives","subject":"hoes-gilardi-2025-xrisk-narratives","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The paper by Hoes and Gilardi of April 2025 states that its findings indicate no direct impact of alarmist coverage of AI's existential threats on public concern for the immediate risks of AI, and that concerns about such coverage may be exaggerated.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-17","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-hoes-gilardi-2025-xrisk-narratives-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Tests and disputes the premise that attention to existential risk diverts public attention from present harms."}}}},{"id":"rd-r12-bender-hanna-2023-real-harm","subject":"bender-hanna-2023-real-harm","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"present-harms-priority"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The essay by Bender and Hanna dated 12 August 2023 states that wrongful arrests, surveillance, defamation and deepfake pornography, not the imagined potential to wipe out humanity, are the real threat of AI, and urges regulators to look to research on present harms.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-08-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r12-bender-hanna-2023-real-harm-1","evidence-rd-r12-bender-hanna-2023-real-harm-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2026-10-29","note":"The page text refers to events after its stated publication date; the wording of the August 2023 version was not compared."}}}},{"id":"rd-r13-marcus-2018-critical-appraisal","subject":"marcus-2018-critical-appraisal","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"capabilities-plateau"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Marcus's paper of January 2018 sets out ten concerns about deep learning, states that it may be approaching a wall, and argues that it must be supplemented by other techniques if artificial general intelligence is to be reached.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r13-marcus-2018-critical-appraisal-1","evidence-rd-r13-marcus-2018-critical-appraisal-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r13-sutton-2019-bitter-lesson","subject":"sutton-2019-bitter-lesson","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"capabilities-plateau"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sutton's essay of March 2019 states that the biggest lesson of seventy years of AI research is that general methods that leverage computation, search and learning, are ultimately the most effective by a large margin, because the cost of computation keeps falling.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03-13","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r13-sutton-2019-bitter-lesson-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It does not address whether current approaches will reach, or fall short of, general or superhuman intelligence."}}},{"id":"rd-r13-mitchell-2021-harder-than-we-think","subject":"mitchell-2021-harder-than-we-think","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"capabilities-plateau"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Mitchell's paper of April 2021 describes four fallacies that lead to overconfident predictions about AI, including the assumption that narrow advances lie on a continuum with general intelligence, and states that AI systems remain far from the general abilities that benchmark names suggest.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-04-26","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r13-mitchell-2021-harder-than-we-think-1","evidence-rd-r13-mitchell-2021-harder-than-we-think-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It does not state that current approaches will reach limits short of general intelligence; it argues that predictions of their progress are overconfident."}}},{"id":"rd-r13-gwern-2020-scaling-hypothesis","subject":"gwern-2020-scaling-hypothesis","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"capabilities-plateau"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gwern's essay of 2020 states the scaling hypothesis, on which intelligence is simple neural units and learning algorithms applied to diverse experience at a currently unreachable scale, so that neural networks will become ever more intelligent as computational resources grow.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-05-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r13-gwern-2020-scaling-hypothesis-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2022-01-02","note":"The page dates itself \"2020-05-28–2022-01-02\", the second date being its stated last modification; the quoted wording is read in the current page, which states no later revision; no earlier copy was compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that current neural-network methods will reach limits short of general intelligence."}}}},{"id":"rd-r13-marcus-2022-hitting-a-wall","subject":"marcus-2022-hitting-a-wall","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"capabilities-plateau"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Marcus's essay of March 2022 argues that the scaling of language models has not delivered genuine comprehension, that deep learning may already be approaching diminishing returns from scale, and that hybrid neurosymbolic AI rather than deep learning alone is the way forward.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-03-10","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r13-marcus-2022-hitting-a-wall-1","evidence-rd-r13-marcus-2022-hitting-a-wall-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"diminishing returns"}}},{"id":"rd-r13-bengio-2023-managing-ai-risks","subject":"bengio-2023-managing-ai-risks","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"capabilities-plateau"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio and twenty-three co-authors' paper of October 2023 states that there is no fundamental reason why AI progress would slow or halt at the human level, noting that AI already surpasses humans in narrow domains and is increasingly used to improve AI systems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-26","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r13-bengio-2023-managing-ai-risks-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"It states that there is no fundamental limit at human level, without engaging a named argument for a plateau."}}}},{"id":"rd-r13-marcus-2024-diminishing-returns","subject":"marcus-2024-diminishing-returns","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"capabilities-plateau"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Marcus's post of April 2024 reads benchmark results from GPT-2 to GPT-4 Turbo as tentative evidence that large language models have reached a period of diminishing returns, and states that the wall he wrote of in 2022 may be approaching.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-13","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r13-marcus-2024-diminishing-returns-1","evidence-rd-r13-marcus-2024-diminishing-returns-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r13-narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2024-ai-scaling-myths","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"capabilities-plateau"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's post of June 2024 argues that scaling laws do not predict emergent capabilities, that high-quality training data is running short and model sizes are under downward pressure, and states that there is virtually no chance that scaling alone will lead to AGI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of 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illusion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-01-25","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-marcus-2020-gpt2-nature-of-intelligence-1","evidence-rd-r14-marcus-2020-gpt2-nature-of-intelligence-2","evidence-rd-r14-marcus-2020-gpt2-nature-of-intelligence-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r14-bender-koller-2020-climbing-nlu","subject":"bender-koller-2020-climbing-nlu","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"llms-lack-agency"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bender and Koller's paper of July 2020 argues that a system trained only on linguistic form has a priori no way to learn meaning, so that the language-modelling task cannot in principle lead to learning meaning.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-07","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-bender-koller-2020-climbing-nlu-1","evidence-rd-r14-bender-koller-2020-climbing-nlu-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r14-marcus-2022-nonsense-on-stilts","subject":"marcus-2022-nonsense-on-stilts","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"llms-lack-agency"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Marcus's post of June 2022 states that LaMDA and GPT-3 only match patterns drawn from statistical databases of human language, that what they utter does not mean anything, and that LaMDA does not try to connect to the world but to be the best autocomplete it can.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of 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of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-janus-2022-simulators-1","evidence-rd-r14-janus-2022-simulators-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The post holds that GPT is not itself an agent but can simulate goal-directed agents and act like one, so it does not state that language models lack goals or agency."}}},{"id":"rd-r14-mitchell-krakauer-2022-debate-understanding","subject":"mitchell-krakauer-2022-debate-understanding","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"llms-lack-agency"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Mitchell and Krakauer's paper of October 2022 states that abilities such as learning from few examples, robust reasoning and explaining one's reasoning are lacking in current LLMs, and that current sciences of intelligence are inadequate to settle whether LLMs understand.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-10-14","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-mitchell-krakauer-2022-debate-understanding-1","evidence-rd-r14-mitchell-krakauer-2022-debate-understanding-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The paper does not hold that LLMs lack understanding; it states that the question cannot yet be answered."}}},{"id":"rd-r14-andreas-2022-lms-as-agent-models","subject":"andreas-2022-lms-as-agent-models","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"llms-lack-agency"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Andreas's paper of December 2022 argues that language models are models of intentional communication in a narrow sense, inferring and representing properties of the agent likely to have produced a text, including communicative intentions, beliefs and goals.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-12-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-andreas-2022-lms-as-agent-models-1","evidence-rd-r14-andreas-2022-lms-as-agent-models-2","evidence-rd-r14-andreas-2022-lms-as-agent-models-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that training on text alone leaves a model without any representation of communicative intent or goals."}}}},{"id":"rd-r14-shanahan-2022-talking-about-llms","subject":"shanahan-2022-talking-about-llms","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"llms-lack-agency"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Shanahan's paper of December 2022 states that a large language model is a generative mathematical model of the statistical distribution of tokens in human-generated text, which simply generates statistically likely sequences of words, and that a simple LLM-based question-answering system does not properly speaking have beliefs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-shanahan-2022-talking-about-llms-1","evidence-rd-r14-shanahan-2022-talking-about-llms-2","evidence-rd-r14-shanahan-2022-talking-about-llms-3","evidence-rd-r14-shanahan-2022-talking-about-llms-4"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r14-mahowald-2023-dissociating-language-thought","subject":"mahowald-2023-dissociating-language-thought","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"llms-lack-agency"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Mahowald, Ivanova, Blank, Kanwisher, Tenenbaum and Fedorenko's paper of January 2023 states that LLMs are close to mastering formal linguistic competence but still fail at functional competence, understanding and using language in the world, and are good models of language but incomplete models of human thought.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-01-16","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-mahowald-2023-dissociating-language-thought-1","evidence-rd-r14-mahowald-2023-dissociating-language-thought-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The paper states that current LLMs fail at functional-competence tasks; it does not hold that language models lack understanding or goals as such."}}},{"id":"rd-r14-bubeck-2023-sparks-agi","subject":"bubeck-2023-sparks-agi","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"llms-lack-agency"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bubeck and co-authors' paper of March 2023 states that an early version of GPT-4, though purely a language model, goes far beyond memorization and has a deep and flexible understanding of concepts, skills and domains.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-22","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-bubeck-2023-sparks-agi-1","evidence-rd-r14-bubeck-2023-sparks-agi-2","evidence-rd-r14-bubeck-2023-sparks-agi-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that a model trained to reproduce text only memorises, by reporting performance on tasks designed to require understanding."}}}},{"id":"rd-r14-kambhampati-2024-llms-cant-plan","subject":"kambhampati-2024-llms-cant-plan","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"llms-lack-agency"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kambhampati and co-authors' position paper of February 2024 argues that auto-regressive LLMs cannot by themselves do planning or self-verification, describing them as approximate knowledge sources and as n-gram models on steroids trained on web-scale corpora.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-02-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-kambhampati-2024-llms-cant-plan-1","evidence-rd-r14-kambhampati-2024-llms-cant-plan-2","evidence-rd-r14-kambhampati-2024-llms-cant-plan-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Argues that LLMs cannot plan or self-verify by themselves; does not state that they lack goals, agency or understanding."}}},{"id":"rd-r14-meinke-2024-in-context-scheming","subject":"meinke-2024-in-context-scheming","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"llms-lack-agency"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Meinke, Schoen, Scheurer, Balesni, Shah and Hobbhahn's paper of December 2024 states that large language models are no longer simple text generation systems but are deployed as agents capable of pursuing goals, and reports frontier models covertly pursuing goals given in context.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r14-meinke-2024-in-context-scheming-1","evidence-rd-r14-meinke-2024-in-context-scheming-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It answers the premise that language models only reproduce text by reporting models deployed as agents pursuing supplied goals."}}}},{"id":"rd-r15-goertzel-pitt-2012-open-source-agi","subject":"goertzel-pitt-2012-open-source-agi","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Goertzel and Pitt's paper of February 2012 states that the authors believe, on qualitative grounds, that an open approach to developing artificial general intelligence is probably preferable to a closed one, citing the wider critique an open codebase receives.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-goertzel-pitt-2012-open-source-agi-1","evidence-rd-r15-goertzel-pitt-2012-open-source-agi-2","evidence-rd-r15-goertzel-pitt-2012-open-source-agi-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"open source"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-alexander-2015-should-ai-be-open","subject":"alexander-2015-should-ai-be-open","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Alexander's post of 17 December 2015 argues, in response to the founding of OpenAI, that making AI findings open source lets the least careful developer set the pace and, if takeoff is fast and control difficult, makes catastrophe more likely, and that the benefit of spreading power does not justify that risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-12-17","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-alexander-2015-should-ai-be-open-1","evidence-rd-r15-alexander-2015-should-ai-be-open-2","evidence-rd-r15-alexander-2015-should-ai-be-open-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Answers the premise that wide distribution of AI prevents concentration of power, arguing it lets the least cautious developer decide."}}}},{"id":"rd-r15-bostrom-2017-openness","subject":"bostrom-2017-openness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of 2017 argues that, while short-term effects of openness appear mostly beneficial, openness about source code, science and possibly capability could make the race to advanced AI more closely competitive and so make it harder to pause for, or to afford, safety measures.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-bostrom-2017-openness-1","evidence-rd-r15-bostrom-2017-openness-2","evidence-rd-r15-bostrom-2017-openness-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Answers the premise that wider access and scrutiny improve safety by arguing that openness tightens competition and so squeezes safety work."}}}},{"id":"rd-r15-brundage-2018-malicious-use","subject":"brundage-2018-malicious-use","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brundage and co-authors' report of February 2018 states that openly sharing all new AI capabilities and algorithms by default increases the power of the tools available to malicious actors, and calls for reimagining norms of openness, including pre-publication risk assessment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-brundage-2018-malicious-use-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States a misuse cost of default openness without answering the arguments that openness improves scrutiny or defence."}}}},{"id":"rd-r15-solaiman-2019-release-strategies","subject":"solaiman-2019-release-strategies","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Solaiman and co-authors' OpenAI report of August 2019 states that OpenAI released GPT-2 in stages, withholding the larger models at first because of concerns about misuse such as fake news, impersonation and automated abusive content.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-solaiman-2019-release-strategies-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"An argument that open release increases overall risk; the report describes a staged release made on misuse concerns."}}},{"id":"rd-r15-eleutherai-2021-why-release","subject":"eleutherai-2021-why-release","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leahy's EleutherAI post of 2 June 2021 argues that releasing a GPT-3-like model openly is a net good because it enables safety research on large models, and that keeping such technology from well-funded bad actors is futile once its feasibility is published.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-eleutherai-2021-why-release-1","evidence-rd-r15-eleutherai-2021-why-release-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-shevlane-2022-structured-access","subject":"shevlane-2022-structured-access","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Shevlane's paper of January 2022 proposes structured capability access, in which developers offer controlled interactions with AI systems instead of disseminating them openly, with the aim of preventing dangerous capabilities from being widely accessible.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-shevlane-2022-structured-access-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Proposes restricted access as safer without engaging the scrutiny or distribution-of-power premises."}}}},{"id":"rd-r15-kapoor-narayanan-2023-llama-out-of-bag","subject":"kapoor-narayanan-2023-llama-out-of-bag","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's post of 6 March 2023, written after the leak of Meta's LLaMA weights, argues that the cost of producing disinformation is not the bottleneck for influence operations, so that the risk of malicious misuse of open language models is lower than widely assumed, which they call an argument in favour of open-sourcing.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-kapoor-narayanan-2023-llama-out-of-bag-1","evidence-rd-r15-kapoor-narayanan-2023-llama-out-of-bag-2","evidence-rd-r15-kapoor-narayanan-2023-llama-out-of-bag-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","subject":"andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Andreessen's essay of June 2023 argues that open source AI should be allowed to proliferate without regulatory barriers, that restricting AI is infeasible because the knowledge is already widely available, and that misuse should be met by law and by using AI defensively.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world-1","evidence-rd-r15-andreessen-2023-ai-will-save-the-world-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A statement that open release reduces overall risk or adds little marginal risk; the essay argues that restriction is infeasible and that misuse should be met by law and defensive AI."}}},{"id":"rd-r15-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic","subject":"hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hendrycks, Mazeika and Woodside's overview of 21 June 2023 argues that open-sourcing an AI system with biological research capabilities could increase the risk of malicious use, and recommends that developers avoid open-sourcing the most powerful systems in favour of structured access.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-21","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic-1","evidence-rd-r15-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Answers the premise that open release adds little marginal misuse risk by pointing to dual-use biological capabilities, where one release decides the outcome."}}}},{"id":"rd-r15-howard-2023-dislightenment","subject":"howard-2023-dislightenment","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Howard's essay of 10 July 2023 argues that stringent licensing of AI models would concentrate power, and that supporting open-source model development could increase overall safety by letting more people with varied expertise identify and counter threats.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-10","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-howard-2023-dislightenment-1","evidence-rd-r15-howard-2023-dislightenment-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-meta-2023-statement-of-support","subject":"meta-2023-statement-of-support","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The statement of support published by Meta on 18 July 2023 states that responsible and open innovation brings visibility, scrutiny and trust to AI technologies and that opening the Llama models will let everyone benefit.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-meta-2023-statement-of-support-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-touvron-2023-llama-2","subject":"kp-llama-2-open-foundation-fine-2023","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Llama 2 paper of 18 July 2023 by Touvron and other Meta authors states that the authors believe the open release of large language models, when done safely, will be a net benefit to society, and that an open approach and collaboration will make the models better and safer.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-touvron-2023-llama-2-1","evidence-rd-r15-touvron-2023-llama-2-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-seger-2023-open-sourcing","subject":"seger-open-sourcing-2023-09","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Seger and co-authors' paper of September 2023 argues that, although open-sourcing has historically brought net benefits, for some highly capable foundation models likely to be developed soon it may pose risks extreme enough to outweigh the benefits, partly because release is irreversible and safeguards can be removed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-seger-2023-open-sourcing-1","evidence-rd-r15-seger-2023-open-sourcing-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"States the benefits attributed to openness and argues that removable safeguards and irreversibility outweigh them for highly capable models."}}}},{"id":"rd-r15-gopal-2023-pandemic-agents","subject":"gopal-2023-pandemic-agents","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gopal and co-authors' paper of 25 October 2023 states that its results suggest that releasing the weights of advanced foundation models, no matter how robustly safeguarded, will trigger the proliferation of knowledge sufficient to acquire pandemic agents and other biological weapons.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-25","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-gopal-2023-pandemic-agents-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Answers the premise that safeguards keep the misuse risk of released weights low, stating that release proliferates such knowledge however robustly the model is safeguarded."}}}},{"id":"rd-r15-mozilla-2023-joint-statement","subject":"mozilla-2023-joint-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Joint Statement on AI Safety and Openness hosted by Mozilla and dated 31 October 2023 states that increasing public access and scrutiny makes technology safer, and that openness is an antidote, not a poison, for AI safety and security.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-31","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-mozilla-2023-joint-statement-1","evidence-rd-r15-mozilla-2023-joint-statement-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-kapoor-2024-open-foundation-models","subject":"kapoor-open-foundation-models-2024-02","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Kapoor, Bommasani and co-authors' position paper of 27 February 2024 states that open foundation models bring significant benefits, including a wider distribution of decision-making power, and proposes a framework for assessing their marginal risk relative to closed models and pre-existing technologies, which it says explains why that marginal risk is low in some cases.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-02-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-kapoor-2024-open-foundation-models-1","evidence-rd-r15-kapoor-2024-open-foundation-models-2","evidence-rd-r15-kapoor-2024-open-foundation-models-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-narayanan-kapoor-2024-not-model-property","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2024-not-model-property","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's post of 12 March 2024 argues that defences against misuse must be located mainly outside models, so that there might not be a big difference between the safety implications of open and closed release strategies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-narayanan-kapoor-2024-not-model-property-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-eiras-2024-open-source-genai","subject":"eiras-2024-open-source-genai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eiras and co-authors' paper of 14 May 2024 argues that, overall, the benefits of open-source generative AI outweigh its risks, and that open source reduces the likelihood of existential risk by contributing to technical alignment and maintaining the balance of power.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05-14","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-eiras-2024-open-source-genai-1","evidence-rd-r15-eiras-2024-open-source-genai-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-bengio-2024-reasoning-arguments","subject":"bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's post of 9 July 2024 states that open-sourcing may currently be more beneficial than detrimental to safety, but argues that as capabilities advance the decision should not rest with companies, and that the argument that good AIs would outnumber and defeat bad AIs has many flaws, including the advantage of attackers using bioweapons.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-bengio-2024-reasoning-arguments-1","evidence-rd-r15-bengio-2024-reasoning-arguments-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Answers the defensive-balance premise (more good AIs than bad) with the offence-defence asymmetry."}}}},{"id":"rd-r15-meta-open-strategy-2024","subject":"meta-open-strategy-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Zuckerberg's essay of 23 July 2024 states that open source AI will be safer than the alternatives, because open systems can be widely scrutinised, and that a world in which AI is widely deployed lets larger actors check the power of smaller bad actors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-07-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-meta-open-strategy-2024-1","evidence-rd-r15-meta-open-strategy-2024-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r15-ntia-2024-open-weights","subject":"ntia-2024-open-weights","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The NTIA report of July 2024 assesses the marginal risks and benefits of widely available model weights relative to closed models and other technologies, concludes that current evidence is not sufficient to determine that restrictions are warranted or that they will never be appropriate, and recommends that the government monitor risks and keep the capacity to act.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-07","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-ntia-2024-open-weights-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A conclusion that open weights reduce risk or add little marginal risk; the report leaves the question open and recommends monitoring."}}},{"id":"rd-r15-widder-2024-open-closed","subject":"widder-2024-open-closed","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"open-models-reduce-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Widder, Whittaker and West's article of 27 November 2024 argues that openness alone does not perturb the concentration of power in AI and that rhetoric around open AI is often used in ways that increase that concentration.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r15-widder-2024-open-closed-1","evidence-rd-r15-widder-2024-open-closed-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that open release widely distributes power."}}}},{"id":"rd-r16-brooks-2017-seven-deadly-sins","subject":"brooks-2017-seven-deadly-sins","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"gradual-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brooks's essay of September 2017 states that, if superintelligent devices are eventually built, they will evolve technologically over time in a world already changed and populated by many other intelligences, so that their existence will not come as a sudden surprise.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r16-brooks-2017-seven-deadly-sins-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r16-yudkowsky-2017-alphago-zero-foom","subject":"yudkowsky-2017-alphago-zero-foom","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"gradual-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky's post of 20 October 2017 argues that AlphaGo Zero's discarding of accumulated human Go knowledge counts against Hanson's thesis that cumulative domain knowledge and a market ecology of components would prevent rapid gains in AI capability across domains.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10-20","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r16-yudkowsky-2017-alphago-zero-foom-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise that accumulated domain knowledge and an ecology of specialised components keep capability gains slow and distributed."}}}},{"id":"rd-r16-yudkowsky-2017-reply-to-chollet","subject":"yudkowsky-2017-reply-to-chollet","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"gradual-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky's reply of December 2017 to Chollet's essay argues that Chollet's arguments do not establish that recursive intelligence expansion progresses at a roughly linear pace, and that even Hanson would reject the idea that progress within all systems is confined to such a pace.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r16-yudkowsky-2017-reply-to-chollet-1","evidence-rd-r16-yudkowsky-2017-reply-to-chollet-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"It disputes the premise, quoted from Chollet, that recursive intelligence expansion is confined to a roughly linear pace."}}}},{"id":"rd-r16-christiano-2018-takeoff-speeds","subject":"christiano-2018-takeoff-speeds","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"gradual-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano's post of February 2018 states that he thinks a slow takeoff, a continuous acceleration distributed across the economy, significantly more likely than a fast one, arguing that before there is an incredibly intelligent AI there will probably be a slightly worse one.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r16-christiano-2018-takeoff-speeds-1","evidence-rd-r16-christiano-2018-takeoff-speeds-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"slow takeoff"}}},{"id":"rd-r16-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"gradual-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's essay of April 2025 states that a continued gradual increase in the role of automation in AI development is more likely than a singular, discontinuous moment when recursive self-improvement is achieved, and that speed limits apply at each stage from invention to diffusion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-15","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r16-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r17-armstrong-2013-racing","subject":"armstrong-2013-racing","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Armstrong, Bostrom and Shulman's technical report of 2013 presents a model in which teams racing to build a powerful AI are incentivised to skimp on safety precautions, and in which more teams and more enmity between them increase the danger of an AI disaster.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-10","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the FHI technical report; journal version (2016) not read."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-armstrong-2013-racing-1","evidence-rd-r17-armstrong-2013-racing-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Models developer incentives directly and finds that the incentive to win pushes precautions down."}}}},{"id":"rd-r17-bostrom-2017-openness","subject":"bostrom-2017-openness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom's paper of 2017 argues that in a closely competitive race a larger pool of developers is likely to contain one willing to proceed without adequate safeguards, and that competition makes it harder for any developer to accept safety measures that cost performance.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-bostrom-2017-openness-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Argues that competitive pressure, not market reward, governs how much safety a developer can afford."}}}},{"id":"rd-r17-askell-2019-cooperation","subject":"askell-2019-cooperation","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Askell, Brundage and Hadfield's paper of July 2019 argues that AI companies have the market, liability and regulatory incentives to develop responsibly that companies in other industries have, but that these appear weaker for AI, and that competition can lead companies to underinvest in safety, making responsible development a collective action problem.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-07-10","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-askell-2019-cooperation-1","evidence-rd-r17-askell-2019-cooperation-2","evidence-rd-r17-askell-2019-cooperation-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"incentives","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"States the market-incentive premise (consumers, reputation, liability) and argues competition and information gaps weaken it."}}}},{"id":"rd-r17-hendrycks-2023-natural-selection","subject":"hendrycks-2023-natural-selection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hendrycks's paper of 28 March 2023 argues that competitive pressures among corporations and militaries will favour AI agents with undesirable traits, and that while there are some economic incentives to make models safer, these are outweighed by the desire for performance.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-hendrycks-2023-natural-selection-1","evidence-rd-r17-hendrycks-2023-natural-selection-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"States that economic incentives for safety exist and argues that competition for performance outweighs them."}}}},{"id":"rd-r17-hanson-2023-reasonable-ai-fears","subject":"hanson-2023-reasonable-ai-fears","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson's essay of 14 April 2023 argues that the organisations that supply AIs monitor and test them in great detail because that is cheap and they are liable for damages and embarrassments, and that law and competition push them to make their AIs behave in civil, lawful ways.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-04-14","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-hanson-2023-reasonable-ai-fears-1","evidence-rd-r17-hanson-2023-reasonable-ai-fears-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r17-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic","subject":"hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hendrycks, Mazeika and Woodside's overview of 21 June 2023 argues that competitive pressure fuels a corporate AI race in which companies race to offer the first products to market rather than the safest, and recommends safety regulation so that developers do not cut corners.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-21","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic-1","evidence-rd-r17-hendrycks-2023-overview-catastrophic-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Argues that market competition rewards speed over safety, against the premise that markets reward safe products."}}}},{"id":"rd-r17-bengio-2024-reasoning-arguments","subject":"bengio-2024-reasoning-through-arguments","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bengio's post of 9 July 2024 answers the argument that corporations would prefer to build safe AI by stating that the problem arises when safety and profit maximisation are not aligned, citing fossil-fuel and drug companies, and that global risks are an externality for developers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-bengio-2024-reasoning-arguments-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"States the incentive argument as a question and answers it with the externality of global risks."}}}},{"id":"rd-r17-hinton-2024-nobel-banquet","subject":"hinton-2024-nobel-banquet","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hinton's Nobel banquet speech of 10 December 2024 states that there is now evidence that, if digital beings more intelligent than humans are created by companies motivated by short-term profits, safety will not be the top priority.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-10","note":"Date the talk was given."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-hinton-2024-nobel-banquet-1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States the contrary of the proposition without engaging the market or liability mechanism."}}}},{"id":"rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","subject":"narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"incentives-produce-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Narayanan and Kapoor's essay of April 2025 argues that how well developers and deployers mitigate AI accidents depends on their incentives, that in many cases market forces will provide an adequate incentive with safety regulation filling the gaps, and that poorly controlled AI will be too error-prone to make business sense.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-04-15","basis":"publication","note":"Day not confirmed from the retrieved text."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-1","evidence-rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-2","evidence-rd-r17-narayanan-kapoor-2025-normal-technology-3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r07-joy-2000-why-the-future","subject":"joy-2000-why-the-future","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-extinction-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Joy's essay of April 2000 argues that robotics, genetic engineering and nanotechnology could make humans an endangered species, and asks whether, if extinction is a likely or even possible outcome of technological development, we should not proceed with great caution.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-04","basis":"publication","note":"Wired, issue of April 2000; the page dates it 1 April 2000."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-rd-r07-joy-2000-why-the-future-1","evidence-rd-r07-joy-2000-why-the-future-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"rd-r06-goertzel-2002-thoughts-on-ai-morality","subject":"goertzel-2002-thoughts-on-ai-morality","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"alignment-is-hard"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Goertzel's essay of May 2002 argues that a proposed design for a friendly AI goal system is very unlikely to produce a value system robust enough to survive repeated, drastic self-modifications aimed at increasing intelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-05","basis":"publication","note":"Dated May 2002 on its 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