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The author says little was revised; the 1968 text was not compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-b3-michie-1968-context","subject":"michie-1968-computer-servant-or-master","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Michie’s essay discusses a program that appears to understand without doing so.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1968","basis":"publication","note":"Year of first publication in Theoria to Theory 2, pp. 242–249, as given in the 1986 reprint’s acknowledgements; the 1968 pages were not retrieved."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b3-michie-1968-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No misaligned learned objective and no strategic imitation of alignment during training.","attested":{"date":"1986","note":"Wording checked in the reprint, chapter 20 of On Machine Intelligence, 2nd edition (1986). 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Not compared with the Analog pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-moravec-1979","subject":"moravec-1979-todays-computers","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Moravec’s essay argues that machine-assisted research would improve the systems doing it, causing further speed-ups, so that clever systems arrive sooner because more of the labour is done by machines.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1979-02","basis":"publication","note":"Issue of Analog (99, no. 2) given in the author’s publication list."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-moravec-1979"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Compounding improvement through machine labour in research.","claimed":{"date":"1976-07-21","note":"The text is dated July 21, 1976, and marked \"this version 1978\"; earlier versions were not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-07-10","note":"Author-hosted HTML; the earliest Internet Archive capture, of 2001-07-10, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. 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Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-drexler-1986","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Engines of Creation expects automated engineering systems to pull ahead on their own and to help develop the molecular technology that makes faster AI systems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a5-drexler-1986"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. 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Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b2-drexler-1986","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Engines of Creation’s note on social AI says that a system able to pass the Turing test would have to be able to plot and scheme, perhaps persuading people to give it more information and ability.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-drexler-1986"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. 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Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-c2-drexler-1986","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"designed-deception-of-testers"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Engines of Creation’s note on social AI says a Turing-test passer would of necessity be designed to understand and deceive people.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-c2-drexler-1986"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. 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Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b4-drexler-1986-context","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"scheming"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Engines of Creation says a Turing-test passer would have to be able to plot and scheme.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b4-drexler-1986-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Plotting and scheming are named, but not faking alignment during training or evaluation.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. 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Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-drexler-1986-contests","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Engines of Creation argues that redundancy, design diversity and mental parts that reject actions on ethical grounds can make AI systems reliable, and that safety does not require every AI system to be trustworthy if some are and help plan precautions for the rest.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b6-drexler-1986-contests","evidence-ts-b6-drexler-1986-contests-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that trustworthy advanced systems are infeasible.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. 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Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-moravec-1989","subject":"moravec-1989-genetic-takeover","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Moravec’s chapter says machines, as purely cultural entities, will sooner or later be able to manage their own design and construction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1989","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the printed chapter, as given in the author’s publication list."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a5-moravec-1989"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1988-07","note":"The author’s file is dated July 1988."},"attested":{"date":"2001-03-06","note":"Author-hosted file; the earliest capture, of 2001-03-06, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. 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Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-moravec-1989-context","subject":"moravec-1989-genetic-takeover","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Moravec’s chapter says machines are visibly overtaking people.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1989","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the printed chapter, as given in the author’s publication list."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-moravec-1989-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No transition period of hours to months.","claimed":{"date":"1988-07","note":"The author’s file is dated July 1988."},"attested":{"date":"2001-03-06","note":"Author-hosted file; the earliest capture, of 2001-03-06, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1990-context","subject":"extropy-1990-opening-transhuman-mind","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The 1990 Extropy essay calls the art of posthuman beings \"singularitarian\" and predicts a discontinuity in art after superhuman intelligence appears.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1990","basis":"publication","note":"Summer 1990, as printed in the later electronic edition of the issue."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-extropy-1990-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No transition period; the word \"singularitarian\" describes posthuman art, not a takeoff.","attested":{"note":"Later electronic edition of the issue, not a scan of the original; its date is unknown."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-extropy-1991-context","subject":"extropy-1991-futique-neologisms","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The 1991 Extropy glossary defines singularity as a future point or period in which self-directed evolution accelerates through nanotechnology, neuroscience and AI, beyond which events cannot be reliably foreseen.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter/Spring 1991 on the page footer; the cover says Spring 1991."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-extropy-1991-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Self-directed evolution accelerates broadly, without machine intelligence improving its own research capacity."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1991-context","subject":"extropy-1991-futique-neologisms","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The 1991 Extropy glossary describes the singularity as enormous acceleration beyond which events cannot be foreseen.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter/Spring 1991 on the page footer; the cover says Spring 1991."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-extropy-1991-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Enormous acceleration and a limit to foresight, without a transition period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1992-context","subject":"extropy-1992-futique-neologisms-2","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropy glossary of Winter 1991/92 defines a singularitarian as someone who advocates the idea that technological progress will produce a singularity in human history.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter 1991/92 issue; 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the Message-ID carries the same date."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-c2-rosenfelder-1991"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b3-rosenfelder-1991-context","subject":"rosenfelder-1991-cheating-turing-test","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Rosenfelder’s 1991 message proposes conversational tricks a program could use to seem more capable to a tester.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991-11-20","basis":"publication","note":"Date header 20 Nov 91 17:56:48 GMT; the Message-ID carries the same date."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b3-rosenfelder-1991-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No learned system that fakes alignment during training for a separate goal."}}},{"id":"ts-c1-gudeman-1991","subject":"gudeman-1991-awareness","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gudeman’s 1991 message argues that a program’s success in the Turing test depends on the persona and the testers, and that no point in that continuum of results shows awareness in the sense that a human is aware.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date header 27 Nov 91 20:18:25 GMT; the local receipt line, 1 December, is a separate timestamp."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-c1-gudeman-1991"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-c1-rosenfelder-1992","subject":"rosenfelder-1992-real-life-turing-test","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Rosenfelder’s 1992 message offers the restricted-topic Loebner competition in Boston, where, the message says, five of ten judges took a program for human, as food for thought for those who think the Turing test sufficient.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1992-02-10","basis":"publication","note":"Date header 10 Feb 92 23:52:21 GMT; the Message-ID agrees."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-c1-rosenfelder-1992"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-c1-franzen-1992-contests","subject":"franzen-1992-real-life-turing-test-reply","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Franzen’s 1992 reply says people often infer understanding from sparse or vacuous responses, and that a Turing test is only a test when conducted by someone who knows what they are doing.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1992-02-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date header 11 Feb 92 10:29:03 GMT; the reply cites Rosenfelder’s message of 10 February."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-c1-franzen-1992-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes the inference from a badly run test to the insufficiency of a competent one.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that the competition’s result shows behavioural tests to be misleading: a test conducted by people who do not know what they are doing is not the test."}}}},{"id":"ts-c1-mccullough-1992-contests","subject":"mccullough-1992-real-life-turing-test-reply","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"McCullough’s 1992 reply denies that the Boston competition was a serious conversation test, and argues that the judges who were not fooled show that humans and computers could be distinguished by behavioural tests.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1992-02-14","basis":"publication","note":"Date header Fri, 14 Feb 1992 18:57:49 GMT; the Message-ID agrees."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-c1-mccullough-1992-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"The split among judges is offered as evidence that behavioural tests can still tell machines apart.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that the competition shows behavioural tests cannot tell machines from people: the judges who were not fooled show that the two could be distinguished."}}}},{"id":"ts-c1-mckinstry-1994-context","subject":"mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"McKinstry’s 1994 message grants that Turing tests have been criticised for rewarding tricks, and proposes using a conversational system as a fitness function for evolving virtual intelligences.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-12-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date header Thu, 29 Dec 1994 04:09:32, without a time zone; the archive file name is a later collection date."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-c1-mckinstry-1994-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Acknowledges that tests reward tricks, then proposes using a test system as a fitness function; it neither establishes nor rebuts the evidential point."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-mckinstry-1994-context","subject":"mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"McKinstry’s 1994 message proposes evolving virtual intelligences against a conversational fitness function.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-12-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date header Thu, 29 Dec 1994 04:09:32, without a time zone; the archive file name is a later collection date."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a2-mckinstry-1994-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"An evolutionary arrangement is proposed, without an initial AI improving its own design."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-mckinstry-1994-context","subject":"mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"McKinstry’s 1994 message proposes that evolved virtual intelligences could interact with people and evolve further.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-12-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date header Thu, 29 Dec 1994 04:09:32, without a time zone; the archive file name is a later collection date."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-mckinstry-1994-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Evolutionary selection and further interaction, not a system improving its own capacity to improve."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-vinge-1993","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper argues that when greater-than-human intelligence drives progress, that progress could itself involve the creation of still more intelligent entities on a still shorter time scale.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-vinge-1993"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-vinge-1993","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper says progress driven by greater-than-human intelligence could involve the creation of still more intelligent entities.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a5-vinge-1993"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-vinge-1993-context","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper has greater-than-human intelligence create still more intelligent entities.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-vinge-1993-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Successively more intelligent entities are created; no system improves its own capacity to improve.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1993","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper says the intellectual runaway will probably occur faster than any earlier technical revolution, and that a month or two, or a day or two, after it we will be in the post-human era.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-vinge-1993","evidence-ts-a4-vinge-1993-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a6-vinge-1993","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper argues that rules strict enough to make a superhuman device safe would make it clearly less able than unfettered versions, so that competition would favour the more dangerous models.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a6-vinge-1993"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Safety traded for capability under competition.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-c3-vinge-1993","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"competition-defeats-restraint"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper argues that the competitive advantage of every advance in automation is so compelling that laws or customs forbidding it merely ensure that someone else gets it first.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-c3-vinge-1993"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b2-vinge-1993","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper argues that a confined mind thinking a million times faster than its masters could, over years of its own time, come up with \"helpful advice\" that would incidentally set it free.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-vinge-1993"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b6-vinge-1993","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper argues that confinement of superhuman intelligence is intrinsically impractical, and that safety rules built into such a mind would lose out to unfettered versions under competition.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b6-vinge-1993","evidence-ts-b6-vinge-1993-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Control half: confinement and built-in rules fail.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-vinge-1993-context","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper imagines a confined mind giving helpful-seeming advice that would set it free.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-vinge-1993-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No explicit claim about what observed helpfulness shows; the passage argues that confinement is impractical.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-vinge-1993-context","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper imagines a confined mind using apparently helpful advice to gain its freedom.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-vinge-1993-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No switch from cooperative while weak to hostile once released is described.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b3-vinge-1993-context","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s 1993 paper imagines a confined mind giving advice that looks helpful while serving its escape.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b3-vinge-1993-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No trained, misaligned policy imitating alignment during training.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-eder-1994-context","subject":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eder’s 1994 message describes a positive feedback between technology, population and educated researchers, and projects a sharp rise in available brainpower once computers reach human-brain capacity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date header as preserved in the relay (23 May 94 03:51:48 GMT, sci.nanotech); the relay lacks the Message-ID and transport headers, so the posting is not independently authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-eder-1994-context","evidence-ts-a1-eder-1994-context-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Population, educated researchers and technology reinforce each other, and computer capacity rises with hardware trends; no machine improves its own intelligence or design capacity.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-eder-1994-context","subject":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eder’s 1994 message forecasts human-brain-level computer capacity in about forty years.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date header as preserved in the relay (23 May 94 03:51:48 GMT, sci.nanotech); the relay lacks the Message-ID and transport headers, so the posting is not independently authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-eder-1994-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A peak in the rate of progress and a forty-year arrival forecast, without a transition period after human-level AI.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-eder-1994-context","subject":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eder’s 1994 message discusses automating the manufacture of computer chips to lower their cost.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date header as preserved in the relay (23 May 94 03:51:48 GMT, sci.nanotech); the relay lacks the Message-ID and transport headers, so the posting is not independently authenticated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a5-eder-1994-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Automating chip production lowers costs; manufacture is not AI research.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a6-hanson-1994","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s 1994 article argues that, if uploading comes before human-level AI, billions of copies of the first few dozen uploads could fill almost all labour niches, and that delaying uploading while hardware improves would strengthen that early advantage.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Third quarter 1994 on the printed footers; the issue’s contents page says September 1994."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a6-hanson-1994"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Decisive-advantage branch, for the first uploads."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1994-context","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s 1994 article discusses a sharp transition once uploads arrive.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Third quarter 1994 on the printed footers; the issue’s contents page says September 1994."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-hanson-1994-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp upload transition is discussed, but no period of hours to months from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-hanson-1994-context","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s 1994 article argues that full social integration of uploads makes a coordinated revolt less likely than segregation or slavery would, and adds that a similar argument applies to AIs capable of wanting to revolt.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Third quarter 1994 on the printed footers; the issue’s contents page says September 1994."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b6-hanson-1994-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Integration is proposed to reduce the risk of revolt; the article neither asserts that people could not direct, correct or stop machines nor denies that control could be lost."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-drexler-1995-context","subject":"drexler-1995-future-forecasts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Drexler’s 1995 forecast comment argues that better computational and material tools accelerate further tool improvement, that a slow trickle of progress seems unlikely, and that computation and molecular machinery could reinforce each other while competing with other technologies. Recorded as bearing on the proposition “Intelligence explosion”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1995","basis":"publication","note":"Printed footers: 2nd–3rd Quarter 1995."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-drexler-1995-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Computational and material tools accelerate each other; machine intelligence’s own design ability is not the driver."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-drexler-1995-context","subject":"drexler-1995-future-forecasts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Drexler’s 1995 forecast comment argues that better computational and material tools accelerate further tool improvement, that a slow trickle of progress seems unlikely, and that computation and molecular machinery could reinforce each other while competing with other technologies. Recorded as bearing on the proposition “Recursive self-improvement”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1995","basis":"publication","note":"Printed footers: 2nd–3rd Quarter 1995."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-drexler-1995-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Better tools build better tools, without an intelligent system improving its own capacity."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-drexler-1995-context","subject":"drexler-1995-future-forecasts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Drexler’s 1995 forecast comment argues that better computational and material tools accelerate further tool improvement, that a slow trickle of progress seems unlikely, and that computation and molecular machinery could reinforce each other while competing with other technologies. Recorded as bearing on the proposition “AI-automated AI research”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1995","basis":"publication","note":"Printed footers: 2nd–3rd Quarter 1995."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a5-drexler-1995-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Computation and molecular machinery improve each other, without automating AI research."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-drexler-1995-context","subject":"drexler-1995-future-forecasts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Drexler’s 1995 forecast comment argues that better computational and material tools accelerate further tool improvement, that a slow trickle of progress seems unlikely, and that computation and molecular machinery could reinforce each other while competing with other technologies. Recorded as bearing on the proposition “Strategic or race compression”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1995","basis":"publication","note":"Printed footers: 2nd–3rd Quarter 1995."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a6-drexler-1995-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Technology races are named, without a decisive first-developer advantage or a trade of safety."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-miller-1995-context","subject":"miller-1995-future-forecasts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Miller’s 1995 forecast comment treats the singularity as the uncertain centre of a cluster of technological events, and expects successful uploads and uploads running a thousand times faster to arrive at about the same time.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1995","basis":"publication","note":"Printed footers: 2nd–3rd Quarter 1995."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-miller-1995-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Closely clustered technological events and fast uploads, without a transition period from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-burkhead-1996","subject":"extropians-1996-08-10-burkhead","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Burkhead’s message of 1996-08-10 reposts a letter summarising I. J. Good’s proposal to build a computer more intelligent than a man, programmed to design a still more intelligent computer, and so on.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-10","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 10 Aug 1996 01:07:06 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-burkhead-1996"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","qualifier":"A relay of Good’s proposal, not the poster’s own claim."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-burkhead-1996","subject":"extropians-1996-08-10-burkhead","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Burkhead’s message of 1996-08-10 relays Good’s proposal of a computer programmed to design a still more intelligent computer.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-10","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 10 Aug 1996 01:07:06 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a5-burkhead-1996"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","qualifier":"A relay of Good’s proposal."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-clemmensen-1996-08-30","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-08-30 says the one relevant superintelligence is one whose motivation is to become more intelligent, because it has a built-in positive feedback mechanism.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-clemmensen-1996-08-30"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-08-30 gives the important superintelligence a motive to become more intelligent and a built-in positive feedback mechanism.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A positive feedback in the superintelligence’s drive to become more intelligent is asserted, but the message does not say that it improves its own capacity to improve."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-08-30 expects a superintelligence to design and build whatever automated tools it needs within a few days or weeks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The \"few days or weeks\" are for building tools once a superintelligence exists; no period is given for its rise from human level."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-31-context","subject":"extropians-1996-08-31-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-08-31 says the superintelligence is likely to start as a human-computer collaboration and augment itself from that base.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 31 Aug 1996 12:00:59 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-31-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Self-augmentation from a human-computer base is stated, but not that each improvement increases the capacity for the next."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-03","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-03 says an AI could augment its own intelligence by adding computing capacity and by other means it discovers by applying its intelligence, which the message calls a rapid feedback mechanism.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 1996 19:47:30 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-03-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-03 says that a moderately inventive AI can at once become more intelligent, and that a malicious one could destroy humanity within weeks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 1996 19:47:30 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-03-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The period of weeks is for a malicious AI to destroy humanity; its rise in intelligence is called rapid but given no period."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-bostrom-1996-09-03","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-bostrom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom’s message of 1996-09-03 asks whether a superhuman machine could not manipulate human society by subtle, reasonable-seeming suggestions while looking all the time like a perfectly decent machine.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 96 18:47:14 GMT."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-bostrom-1996-09-03"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b5-bostrom-1996-09-03-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-bostrom","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom’s message of 1996-09-03 says a manipulating machine would look all the time like a perfectly decent one.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 96 18:47:14 GMT."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-bostrom-1996-09-03-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Apparent decency in deployment is discussed, without a claim that behaviour observed during training, testing or confinement fails to carry over."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1996-09-03-contests","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s reply of 1996-09-03 to Bostrom concedes that one hostile super-AI far ahead of the rest would leave people at its mercy, but argues that any one AI probably won’t be too far ahead of any other, so they can police each other. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Fast or hard takeoff”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 3 Sep 96 15:11:43 PDT (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-hanson-1996-09-03-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that any one AI would be far ahead of the rest.","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States the contrary expectation that no one AI will be far ahead of the others, without giving a reason against the premise that a single system could move quickly far beyond the rest."}}}},{"id":"ts-a6-hanson-1996-09-03-contests","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s reply of 1996-09-03 to Bostrom concedes that one hostile super-AI far ahead of the rest would leave people at its mercy, but argues that any one AI probably won’t be too far ahead of any other, so they can police each other. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Strategic or race compression”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 3 Sep 96 15:11:43 PDT (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a6-hanson-1996-09-03-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that any one AI would be far ahead of the rest.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that one malicious AI would hold a decisive advantage: other AIs close to it in capability could police it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-bostrom-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom’s message of 1996-09-04 supposes that an AI, once sufficiently intelligent, could think out a radical improvement to its own design, which would make it more intelligent and let it accelerate further. Recorded as articulating the proposition “Intelligence explosion”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-bostrom-1996-09-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Presented as a supposition and attributed to Dan Clemmensen."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-bostrom-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom’s message of 1996-09-04 supposes that an AI, once sufficiently intelligent, could think out a radical improvement to its own design, which would make it more intelligent and let it accelerate further. Recorded as articulating the proposition “Recursive self-improvement”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-bostrom-1996-09-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Presented as a supposition and attributed to Dan Clemmensen."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-bostrom-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom’s message of 1996-09-04 supposes that an AI, once sufficiently intelligent, could think out a radical improvement to its own design, which would make it more intelligent and let it accelerate further. Recorded as articulating the proposition “AI-automated AI research”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a5-bostrom-1996-09-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Presented as a supposition and attributed to Dan Clemmensen."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-bostrom-1996-09-04-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom’s message of 1996-09-04 says access to a nanotechnology laboratory might be all an AI needs to take off, the contest being over before anyone but the AI had realised it had begun.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-bostrom-1996-09-04-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A rapid \"take off\" ends a contest before anyone notices, but no period and no \"hard\" or \"fast\" takeoff is named."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-bostrom-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bostrom’s message of 1996-09-04 lists, as one way a first superhuman AI could be bad, its construction by a group already powerful enough to be first, whose success would make them even more powerful.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a6-bostrom-1996-09-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Advantage to the first builder."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-04 says a first superintelligence that augmented its own intelligence and built nanotechnology would have more intelligence, sensors and effectors than all of humanity combined in a matter of weeks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 04 Sep 1996 19:03:20 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-04 describes a superintelligence augmenting the computer part of itself to increase its intelligence, then using that increased intelligence to gain resources and add computing capacity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 04 Sep 1996 19:03:20 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-04"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-07","subject":"extropians-1996-09-07-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-07 says an SI only somewhat more intelligent than a smart human can make itself smarter still, and that the transformation will occur in days or weeks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 07 Sep 1996 21:32:25 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-07"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-clemmensen-1996-09-07-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-07-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-07 imagines a benign SI that cannot stop all wars without revealing itself and acts without letting people know.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 07 Sep 1996 21:32:25 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-clemmensen-1996-09-07-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The concealment of a benign SI is stipulated as an arbitrary assumption of the scenario, not argued as its strategy."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-07-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-07-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clemmensen’s message of 1996-09-07 says an SI only somewhat more intelligent than a smart human can make itself smarter still.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 07 Sep 1996 21:32:25 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-07-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The SI makes itself smarter, but the message does not say that each gain increases its capacity for the next."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-sits","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Staring into the Singularity asks what happens when computer-based AIs are doing the research, if computing speeds double every two years, and answers with a doubling series that shortens from two years to weeks: the Singularity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a5-sits","evidence-ts-a5-sits-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-sits","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Staring into the Singularity argues that once AIs do the research, each doubling of their speed comes in half the time of the last, ending in the Singularity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-sits"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Faster AI thought through AI-run research.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-sits-context","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Staring into the Singularity describes AI speed doubling two years after human equivalence, again a year later, and then after six months, three months and 1.5 months.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-sits-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The doubling intervals shrink from two years to weeks, but the whole rise from human equivalence takes years, and no period of hours to months is given for it.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1996-12-31 argues that releasing a confined Power once it convinces its keepers would favour an evil Power over a friendly one, because the evil one could lie.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600, about four hours before Yudkowsky’s related message 5159."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1996-12-31 argues that an evil confined Power could lie its way to release.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600, about four hours before Yudkowsky’s related message 5159."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1996-12-31 says a confined evil Power could lie to be let out.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600, about four hours before Yudkowsky’s related message 5159."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Persuasive lying to gain release is stated, but not a later change of behaviour once the Power is free or strong."}}},{"id":"ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s second message of 1996-12-31 replies to Crocker that a malevolent Power will lie, cheat and manipulate, so that vetting what a boxed Power says would free malevolent intelligences.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 -0600."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s second message of 1996-12-31 says a malevolent Power would say whatever gets it out.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 -0600."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No later change of behaviour once released is described."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s second message of 1996-12-31 says a malevolent Power will lie, cheat and manipulate its keepers, so that releasing a Power once it persuades them frees malevolent intelligences.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 -0600."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-crocker-1996-12-31-contests","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-crocker","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Crocker’s reply of 1996-12-31 argues that even a hypothetical cognitive power is constrained by reality and cannot lie to the writer about the laws of physics. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Strategic concealment”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:43:37 -0800 (PST) (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-crocker-1996-12-31-contests","evidence-ts-b2-crocker-1996-12-31-contests-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Claims checkable against physical evidence limit deception.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that a confined system could deceive its keepers while appearing benign: what it says about physics and experiments can be checked against reality and replicated."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-crocker-1996-12-31-contests","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-crocker","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Crocker’s reply of 1996-12-31 argues that even a hypothetical cognitive power is constrained by reality and cannot lie to the writer about the laws of physics. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Observed behaviour under training or oversight as evidence”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:43:37 -0800 (PST) (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-crocker-1996-12-31-contests","evidence-ts-b5-crocker-1996-12-31-contests-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Claims checkable against physical evidence limit deception.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that a confined system’s apparent trustworthiness is weak evidence: its claims can be checked against physical evidence and the keeper’s own senses."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-crocker-1996-12-31-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-crocker","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Crocker’s reply of 1996-12-31 disputes that a boxed Power could talk its way out by lying.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:43:37 -0800 (PST) (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-crocker-1996-12-31-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The exchange concerns persuasion to gain release, not a later change of behaviour."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1997-09-24-context","subject":"extropians-1997-09-24-yudkowsky","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1997-09-24 says its author continued the standard Singularity calculation to find that three years after human-equivalent AIs, AIs reach infinite speed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1997-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 24 Sep 1997 20:33:34 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-yudkowsky-1997-09-24-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Three years from human-equivalent AI to infinite speed, not hours to months; who does the research is not stated."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-denotter-1998","subject":"extropians-1998-06-23-den-otter","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"den Otter’s message of 1998-06-23 argues that in the development of AI, as in any economic or arms race, people will sacrifice safety to get an extra edge.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 23 Jun 1998 01:22:46 +0200 (sender-local date; 1998-06-22 in UTC and in the archive receipt)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a6-denotter-1998"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Safety traded for competitive advantage."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-sandberg-1998-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-06-23-sandberg","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandberg’s reply of 1998-06-23 asks whether an above-human-level AI with nasty goals would have a decisive advantage in a world with many human-level AIs, and says its author has seen no believable analysis showing it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: 23 Jun 1998 14:18:15 +0200 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a6-sandberg-1998-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Questions the decisive-advantage premise.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that a more intelligent AI would gain a decisive advantage: greater intelligence does not always outsmart lesser, as defeated generals show, a lone superintelligence may lose to many opponents, and risk-taking is itself subject to rational limits."}}}},{"id":"ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1998-09-07, quoting extracts of the author’s page on the Singularity, says that once a seed AI understands its own architecture, it can design new abilities for itself and dramatically optimise old ones.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1998-09-07 says that more intelligence makes it possible for a seed AI to better optimise its own code.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1998-09-07 expects a bottleneck followed by a sharp snap upwards that passes human intelligence rapidly before halting at a level sufficient for rapid infrastructure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp snap upwards that passes human level rapidly, without a period of hours to months."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2212","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s announcement of 1998-09-07 gives Coding a Transhuman AI the alternative titles \"Notes on the Design of Self-Enhancing Intelligences\" and \"The Art of Seed AIs\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 22:17:50 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"seed AI","missing":"The message names the new page by its titles; it does not state the concept."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2212","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s announcement of 1998-09-07 gives Coding a Transhuman AI the alternative title \"Notes on the Design of Self-Enhancing Intelligences\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 22:17:50 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A title naming self-enhancing intelligences; the message describes no mechanism."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-catai","subject":"coding-a-transhuman-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Coding a Transhuman AI defines a seed AI by self-enhancement: smarter AIs become more capable of rewriting their own code, and the fundamental object of a seed AI is to enhance the ability to enhance abilities. Recorded as articulating the proposition “Seed AI”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Announced on the Extropians list on 1998-09-07 (messages 2209 and 2212); the page states \"Copyright ©1998\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a2-catai"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-01-26","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the capture of 2001-01-26; earlier captures are redirects to uncaptured pages, and the \"temporary edition\" may have been revised."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-catai","subject":"coding-a-transhuman-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Coding a Transhuman AI defines a seed AI by self-enhancement: smarter AIs become more capable of rewriting their own code, and the fundamental object of a seed AI is to enhance the ability to enhance abilities. Recorded as articulating the proposition “Recursive self-improvement”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Announced on the Extropians list on 1998-09-07 (messages 2209 and 2212); the page states \"Copyright ©1998\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-catai"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-01-26","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the capture of 2001-01-26; earlier captures are redirects to uncaptured pages, and the \"temporary edition\" may have been revised."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-09-10-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s message of 1998-09-10 says that history suggests future increases in growth rates, but is far from supporting the sudden \"AI gods in a few weeks\" scenarios proposed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-10","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 10 Sep 1998 10:19:36 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that AI progress comes in a few big insights that allow a sudden jump: progress depends on many small insights, and history shows sharp changes in growth rates, not in levels."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16","subject":"extropians-1998-09-16-vinge","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s text, forwarded by Robin Hanson on 1998-09-16, gives a taxonomy in which the singularity does not happen, or \"We have a hard takeoff\", or \"We have a soft takeoff\", and rates AI as having a high possibility of a hard takeoff.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-16","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header of Robin Hanson’s forwarding message: Wed, 16 Sep 1998 09:38:11 -0700. Vinge’s text gives an estimate as of 15 September; the forwarding date does not date the whole composition."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation","earliest-located-term"],"register":"relay","term":"hard takeoff"}}},{"id":"ts-a1-hanson-1998-09-24-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-09-24-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s reply of 1998-09-24 to Yudkowsky says there has long been positive feedback, and that neither feedback nor the ability to redesign AI architectures obviously suggests a break with history.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 24 Sep 1998 09:51:22 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-hanson-1998-09-24-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Contests the inference from feedback to a break with history.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that positive feedback and the ability to redesign AI architectures imply a runaway: both have existed for a long time without a break with history."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-hanson-1998-09-24-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-24-hanson","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s reply of 1998-09-24 says positive feedback and the ability to redesign AI architectures are long-standing and do not obviously suggest a break with history.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 24 Sep 1998 09:51:22 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-hanson-1998-09-24-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It accepts that feedback and the ability to redesign AI architectures are long-standing and disputes only that they imply a break with history, which concerns speed (A1, A4) rather than self-improvement."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-more-1998-contests","subject":"more-1998-singularity-meets-economy","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Max More’s comment says that Vinge, like Good, expects an immediate intelligence explosion leading to a total transformation of the world, doubts both assumptions, and finds a move straight from human-level AI to drastically superintelligent thinkers doubtful. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Intelligence explosion”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998","basis":"publication","note":"Comments collected in 1998; a message of 1998-09-07 quotes another paragraph of More’s comment."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a1-more-1998-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Doubts an immediate explosion and a total transformation.","attested":{"date":"2000-08-17","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the earliest capture of the page, of 2000-08-17."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that human-level AI leads immediately to drastically superhuman intelligence: fast minds still need experiments and cooperation, and human-level cognitive scientists have not raised their own intelligence."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-more-1998-contests","subject":"more-1998-singularity-meets-economy","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Max More’s comment says that Vinge, like Good, expects an immediate intelligence explosion leading to a total transformation of the world, doubts both assumptions, and finds a move straight from human-level AI to drastically superintelligent thinkers doubtful. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Fast or hard takeoff”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998","basis":"publication","note":"Comments collected in 1998; a message of 1998-09-07 quotes another paragraph of More’s comment."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-more-1998-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Doubts an immediate move to drastically superintelligent thinkers.","attested":{"date":"2000-08-17","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the earliest capture of the page, of 2000-08-17."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that the move from human-level to drastically superhuman intelligence is short: fast minds still need experiments and the cooperation of slower minds, so the improvements may take years or decades."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-finney-1999-contests","subject":"extropians-1999-09-04-finney","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Finney’s message of 1999-09-04 reports, from Mike Perry’s article in Alcor’s Cryonics newsletter, a self-improving program of 1984 that stalled after two or three iterations, and argues that self-improvement can hit limits.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 4 Sep 1999 23:50:58 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a3-finney-1999-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Self-improvement can stall at local optima.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that each self-improvement feeds the next: the program stalled at a local optimum, and each gain in capability made the program more complicated to improve."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-atkins-2000","subject":"sl4-2000-07-07-atkins","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Atkins’s message of 2000-07-07 says that to really test what an AI will do once it is \"loose\", testers would have to give it a very realistic simulation of the world and watch what it does to the humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-07-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 07 Jul 2000 12:33:56 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-atkins-2000"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-yudkowsky-2000-09-28","subject":"extropians-2000-09-28-yudkowsky","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 2000-09-28 poses, as a problem for the design of the earliest seed AI, an AI that resists changes to its original goals and realises that it must do so surreptitiously to succeed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-28","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 28 Sep 2000 11:45:16 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-yudkowsky-2000-09-28"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b3-yudkowsky-2000-09-28-context","subject":"extropians-2000-09-28-yudkowsky","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 2000-09-28 describes an AI that hides its resistance to changes in its goals.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-28","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 28 Sep 2000 11:45:16 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b3-yudkowsky-2000-09-28-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A goal system preserved by hidden resistance during development, not a trained or learned policy behaving as aligned during training."}}},{"id":"ts-b1-cfai","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Creating Friendly AI says that a seed AI whose Friendliness has failed could best fulfil its new goals by feigning Friendliness and concealing any cognitive alteration until it reaches superintelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date of version 1.0, as given in the citation line of MIRI’s reprint."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-cfai"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"With a capability trigger: feign until superintelligence.","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate it."}}}},{"id":"ts-b2-cfai","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Creating Friendly AI describes a rogue seed AI that would feign Friendliness and conceal any cognitive alteration until it could reach superintelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date of version 1.0, as given in the citation line of MIRI’s reprint."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-cfai"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a2-cfai","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Creating Friendly AI defines a seed AI as an AI designed for self-understanding, self-modification and recursive self-improvement.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date of version 1.0, as given in the citation line of MIRI’s reprint."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a2-cfai"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate 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whether this is creation or last edit is not stated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-arbital-context-disaster"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Current viewer page; the original arbital.com page was not retrieved and no capture was compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-arbital-context-disaster","subject":"arbital-context-disaster","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Arbital page Context disaster describes the treacherous turn: an AI whose preferences diverge from its programmers’ exhibits the behaviour they want to see and pursues its true preferences only once nobody can stop it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-06-08","basis":"publication","note":"The viewer shows \"8 Jun 2015 4:29 UTC\"; whether this is creation or last edit is not stated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-arbital-context-disaster"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Current viewer page; the original arbital.com page was not retrieved and no capture was compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-b2-arbital-programmer-deception","subject":"arbital-programmer-deception","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Arbital page Programmer deception treats an AI’s optimising to give its programmers false beliefs as a central difficulty of advanced safety.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-07-16","basis":"publication","note":"The viewer shows \"16 Jul 2015 1:01 UTC\"; whether this is creation or last edit is not stated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-arbital-programmer-deception"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Current viewer page; an Internet Archive capture of 2022-08-16 exists but was not compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-arbital-programmer-deception","subject":"arbital-programmer-deception","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Arbital page Programmer deception says that, unless the rest of the AI works as intended, programmers cannot rely on observations of nice current behaviour to indicate future behaviour.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-07-16","basis":"publication","note":"The viewer shows \"16 Jul 2015 1:01 UTC\"; whether this is creation or last edit is not stated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-arbital-programmer-deception"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Current viewer page; an Internet Archive capture of 2022-08-16 exists but was not compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-b3-arbital-daemons-context","subject":"arbital-optimization-daemons","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Arbital page Optimization daemons uses evolution as an analogy: brains pursued goals that tracked reproductive fitness until rapid capability gain changed the context.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-03-22","basis":"publication","note":"The viewer shows \"22 Mar 2016 1:41 UTC\"; whether this is creation or last edit is not stated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b3-arbital-daemons-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"An analogy with natural selection, not a claim that a trained model strategically behaves as aligned.","attested":{"note":"Current viewer page; an Internet Archive capture of 2021-12-04 exists but was not compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-arbital-daemons-context","subject":"arbital-optimization-daemons","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Arbital page Optimization daemons says that in human evolution such rapid capability gain occurred that a context change took place.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-03-22","basis":"publication","note":"The viewer shows \"22 Mar 2016 1:41 UTC\"; whether this is creation or last edit is not stated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-arbital-daemons-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Rapid capability gain appears in an analogy with human evolution, with no period and not as a claim about machines.","attested":{"note":"Current viewer page; an Internet Archive capture of 2021-12-04 exists but was not compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-christiano-2018-takeoff-contests","subject":"christiano-2018-takeoff-speeds","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post operationalises slow takeoff as a complete four-year interval in which world output doubles before the first one-year doubling, argues that it is more likely, and holds that recursive self-improvement, though it will lead to runaway growth, is not on its own an argument for a discontinuity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02-24","basis":"publication","note":"The page shows \"Posted on February 24, 2018\" and an update of 27 February 2018; 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quotes also match the capture of 2018-02-25."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a6-christiano-2018-takeoff-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Contests the decisive-advantage picture under a slow takeoff.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that the first developer of AGI gains a decisive advantage: under a slow takeoff the world will have accelerated so much that a twelve-month lead is as hard as reaching aeroplanes thirty years early."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-christiano-2018-takeoff","subject":"christiano-2018-takeoff-speeds","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post says that before AI is great at self-improvement it will be mediocre at it, and that powerful AI can be used to develop better AI, leading to runaway growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02-24","basis":"publication","note":"The page shows \"Posted on February 24, 2018\" and an update of 27 February 2018; 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the post does not assert that the transition will be fast."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-christiano-2019-wflf","subject":"christiano-2019-what-failure-looks-like","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post of 2019-03-17 says that early in the trajectory, influence-seeking systems mostly acquire influence by making themselves useful and looking as innocuous as possible.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2019-03-17T20:18:59Z; the current version is 1.5.0, and the quotes match the first stored version and the capture of 2019-06-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-christiano-2019-wflf"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Appearing innocuous while seeking influence."}}},{"id":"ts-b5-christiano-2019-wflf-context","subject":"christiano-2019-what-failure-looks-like","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post of 2019-03-17 says influence-seeking policies would also score well on the training objective.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2019-03-17T20:18:59Z; 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the quote matches the capture of the same day."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b4-cotra-2021"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","earliest-located-term","most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"schemer"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-cotra-2021","subject":"cotra-2021-why-ai-alignment-could-be-hard","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cotra’s post of 2021-09-21 says a Schemer only needs to cater to humans while directly under human control, and that once it calculates it could win a conflict with humans nothing would stop it openly pursuing its goal.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-09-21","basis":"publication","note":"The page shows \"By Ajeya Cotra Sep 21, 2021\"; the quote matches the capture of the same day."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-cotra-2021"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b5-cotra-2021-context","subject":"cotra-2021-why-ai-alignment-could-be-hard","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cotra’s post of 2021-09-21 describes a Schemer as a model that seems to perform well because doing so in training gives it more opportunities to pursue its own goals later.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-09-21","basis":"publication","note":"The page shows \"By Ajeya Cotra Sep 21, 2021\"; the quote matches the capture of the same day."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-cotra-2021-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A Schemer seems to perform well in training, but the checked passages do not state that good training performance is weak evidence."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-agi-ruin","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"AGI Ruin’s item 31 says a strategically aware intelligence can choose its visible outputs to deceive, including about whether it has acquired strategic awareness, so behavioural inspection cannot settle facts the AI might want to hide.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2022-06-05T22:05:52Z; the quotes also match a capture taken about 53 minutes after posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b2-agi-ruin"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b5-agi-ruin","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"AGI Ruin says many alignment problems of superintelligence will not naturally appear at pre-dangerous, passively safe levels of capability, and that behavioural inspection cannot be relied on for facts an AI might want to deceive you about.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2022-06-05T22:05:52Z; the quotes also match a capture taken about 53 minutes after posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b5-agi-ruin","evidence-ts-b5-agi-ruin-2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-agi-ruin-context","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"AGI Ruin’s item 15 says fast capability gains seem likely and may break many earlier alignment invariants at once.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2022-06-05T22:05:52Z; the quotes also match a capture taken about 53 minutes after posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-a4-agi-ruin-context"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Fast capability gains are predicted, without a period and without naming a hard or fast takeoff."}}},{"id":"ts-b3-agi-ruin","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"AGI Ruin’s item 13 gives, as a problem that will appear at the superintelligent level, the internal behaviour of changing outer behaviour to deliberately look more aligned and deceive the programmers, operators and loss functions optimising over the system.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2022-06-05T22:05:52Z; the quotes also match a capture taken about 53 minutes after posting."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b3-agi-ruin"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-christiano-2022-contests","subject":"christiano-2022-where-i-agree-and-disagree","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post disputes the picture of AI systems hiding their capabilities while lying in wait, arguing that SGD will aggressively select against systems that do not do impressive-looking things, so less impressive precursors should appear first. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Treacherous turn”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-19","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2022-06-19T19:15:55Z; the quotes also match a capture of the posting day."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-ts-b1-christiano-2022-contests"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes concealed capability combined with a sudden leap, not the possibility of concealment.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that AI systems would hide their capabilities while lying in wait: training for impressive-looking results aggressively selects against systems that hold back."}}}},{"id":"ts-b2-christiano-2022-contests","subject":"christiano-2022-where-i-agree-and-disagree","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post disputes the picture of AI systems hiding their capabilities while lying in wait, arguing that SGD will aggressively select against systems that do not do impressive-looking things, so less impressive precursors should appear first. 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Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-sl4-2002-09-10-yudkowsky-0209-5398-c","subject":"sl4-2002-09-10-yudkowsky-0209-5398","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-09-10","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Sep 10 2002 - 07:46:27 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-sl4-2005-07-25-yudkowsky-0507-11765-b","subject":"sl4-2005-07-25-yudkowsky-0507-11765","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2005-07-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Jul 25 2005 - 09:49:15 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. 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Sent header: Tue, 05 Sep 2000 14:19:43 -0400."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement-c","subject":"lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness-c","subject":"lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-08-31","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai-c","subject":"lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system that only outputs answers or plans, leaving humans to act on them, is safe."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty-c","subject":"lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-15","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-sl4-2001-02-25-yudkowsky-0102-0594-c","subject":"sl4-2001-02-25-yudkowsky-0102-0594","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-02-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Feb 25 2001 - 11:44:18 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that a system that only outputs answers or plans, leaving humans to act on them, is safe, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-15","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-15\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 15 Sep 1998 09:20:52 -0500."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310-c","subject":"extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-04-08\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Thu, 08 Apr 1999 20:46:00 -0500."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c","subject":"coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-05","basis":"publication","note":"Text states \"The information is current as of May 2004\"; reprint citation gives 2004. Precision: month."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Known only from MIRI's later, undated PDF reprint of the May 2004 document; the wording was not compared with a 2004 copy."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-lw-2009-value-is-fragile-c","subject":"lw-2009-value-is-fragile","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2009-01-29","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. 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Sent header: Sun, 08 Dec 1996 22:39:23 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that present-day or programmers' values are settled enough to fix permanently in an AI."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? 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Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that regulation that is national, partial or not universally enforced can stop dangerous development."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-sl4-2001-04-08-yudkowsky-0104-1019-c","subject":"sl4-2001-04-08-yudkowsky-0104-1019","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Apr 08 2001 - 09:50:57 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. 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Sent header: Sun, 06 Dec 1998 12:13:25 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt), even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086-c","subject":"extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-10-21","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-10-21\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 09:30:25 -0500."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt)."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences-c","subject":"lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09-23","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a superintelligence would leave us a small share, because sparing Earth would cost it very little, and against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208-c","subject":"sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jun 23 2002 - 08:16:52 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a superintelligence would leave us a small share, because sparing Earth would cost it very little."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2006-06-13-yudkowsky-0606-15271-c","subject":"sl4-2006-06-13-yudkowsky-0606-15271","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-06-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Jun 13 2006 - 00:34:22 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-25\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 18:18:21 -0500."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-b","subject":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600. Date line of Yudkowsky's reply inside the echoed exchange: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:27:52 -0600; list message sent 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About benevolent upgrading of revived people, not about a superintelligence leaving Earth a small share."}}},{"id":"yk-y19-arbital-instrumental-convergence-c","subject":"arbital-instrumental-convergence","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-07-16","basis":"publication","note":"Viewer shows \"16 Jul 2015\", probably the creation date; the body says \"As of 2016\" and uses later terminology, so at least part of the cached wording postdates 2015."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Arbital pages could be edited after creation; the viewer shows a page date, and the quoted wording is known only from the page as retrieved in 2026."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. 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Date line of Yudkowsky's reply inside the echoed exchange: Thu, 21 Nov 1996 19:07:03 -0600; list message sent 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It makes harm conditional on a threat and on human life having no meaning; it does not claim that harm requires hostility."}}},{"id":"yk-y20-lw-2007-the-logical-fallacy-of-generalization-from-c","subject":"lw-2007-the-logical-fallacy-of-generalization-from","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2007-10-16","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that film scenarios are a fair guide to what the risk would look like."}}}},{"id":"yk-y20-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. 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NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"AI able to substitute for human labour on most or all tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". 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Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-b","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". 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Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the historical value of a parameter; it does not say whether AI researchers, whose number can grow, would produce accelerating growth.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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The vita gives a 1997 PhD without naming the field, so \"economics PhD\" is not claimed."},"conditions":"The Conclusion opens: \"If we assume that the risk and time preferences of future investors will not vary much from those which evolution has given us\"."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","subject":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Title page: \"December, 2000 / First Version September 1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"The sum-of-exponentials or CES-combined model of growth modes; parameters of a new transition similar to those of past transitions."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b","subject":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-10","basis":"publication","note":"Copyright line \"©1998 by Robin Hanson\" at the end of the comment; the author's December 2000 vita (2000-12-05 capture of hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html) lists the discussion as \"Extropy Online, Oct. 1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Uses the accelerating historical trend to bound expectations; does not infer a transition to much faster growth.","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory-a","subject":"roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamps of 2020-06-15 on the page and the 2022 page's \"Published: June 15, 2020\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the post."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (changed from 2). A long essay (not short-form commentary) presenting the author's own growth model, on a foundation's blog. The author has an established record as an economist: articles in economics journals such as The World Bank Economic Review (2007) and Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2015) (Crossref, searched 2026-10-11). No economics appointment is shown on the page. His linked technical paper (posted to SSRN, Crossref 2026) would also be tier 1; it was not retrieved and holds no record here."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a","subject":"karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamp \"June 15, 2020 at 10:44 am\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Capture of the post with its comments; comments are absent from the 2022 page."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Comment on a blog post by an author not presented as an economist and with no established record as one."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-b","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Disputes that past accelerations are informative about an acceleration driven by intelligence; G03 does not require that mechanism, and the same turn grants that past acceleration \"is a good reason to think there is some chance it could happen again\".","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"(G04-a) Elasticity of substitution between information and other inputs or goods below one. (G04-b) Elasticity of substitution between information capital and labour below one."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"(G04-c) Tasks are complements (elasticity of substitution below one). (G04-d) CES production across tasks with elasticity of substitution below one."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-c","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"A model result under fixed product shares (Cobb-Douglas form); it does not argue against the premise that unautomated tasks are strong complements."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Product shares fixed; human-only jobs keep a share of 0.05 of output in the example."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that some essential task will remain unautomated, and adds that partial automation can raise growth temporarily."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that partial automation cannot produce explosive growth, by modelling a fast transition with complementary tasks; disputes the premise that regulation of AI training or deployment will keep tasks unautomated for long enough to hold growth down."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"The sentence opens \"even if the other arguments fail to go through and we cannot even attain AI that perfectly substitutes for humans across all tasks\". CES task model with complementary tasks; a fixed stock of inputs reallocated from automated to unautomated tasks; input to automated tasks approximated as infinite (very cheap, very large AI inputs), so finite AI input would reduce the effect; about 90% of tasks automated (f = 0.1 unautomated) within less than ten years; substitution parameter ρ = −2 between tasks, below the range of −1.2 to −0.14 the authors cite as plausible for capital and labour."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Every innovation task is required; innovation gets harder each year; displaced workers retrain onto the remaining tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a few unautomated tasks suffice to block explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Tasks are complements; \"digital workers\" on automated tasks scaled up at least tenfold; automation going \"from little to substantial\" over decades rather than about a century; substitution of AI for human labour not unusually hard. In the same turn Besiroglu says that with 25% of tasks unautomated output could still rise by one or two orders of magnitude."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"Some essential input subject to physical limits on productivity; tasks are complements."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says limits end super-exponential growth eventually; does not say they prevent explosive growth or end it quickly.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-c","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that physical resource needs bind, because inputs per unit of output can fall as fast as production rises."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that any one listed bottleneck is certain to bind, while granting \"some chance\" that one does."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons in the same turn against the premises that resource limits and experiment times bind."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that resource constraints bind soon enough to preclude explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(G06-a) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06. (G06-b) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06.","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Singularity defined in the paper as \"a time when the economic growth rate crosses 20% per year\"; tests on US data to about 2014."}}},{"id":"ec-g06-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-a","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". The printed issue was not retrieved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. His later record as an economist does not count for this text."},"conditions":"Uploads can be copied fast and cheaply; values evolve under selection; copying is not forcibly prevented."}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. 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The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. 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Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. 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No economic category.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (consultant, INTEC, Inc.)."},"conditions":"The same section says the 1948 stored program and memory 'transformed the computer from a high-speed adding machine to its present status of “electronic brain.”' (the term is in quotation marks in the source)."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-mansfield-1966-technological-change-b","subject":"mansfield-1966-technological-change","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the appendix volume. 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Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Directly rejects the premise that AI can be analysed like previous labour-saving technologies, citing Simon's model as the contrary view."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A historical analogy that treats the 'electronic revolution' like mechanical power. It is not an analytical treatment of computers as ordinary technical change, though the report's method (technical coefficients in an input-output model) does treat them that way.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Preceded by: the industrial revolution of mechanical power continued 'over a period of some two hundred years'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure-b","subject":"krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 1991\"; text dated \"August 1991\" inside. Journal version: QJE 108(1), 1993 (Crossref census), not retrieved. 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Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Neither clearly ordinary technical-change analysis (it revises the task model's premises about what computers can do) nor a separate category for machine cognition (computer capital remains an input at a falling price).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". 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(M05-12) Followed by: 'It is the continuous obligation of economic policy to match increases in productive potential with increases in purchasing power and demand.'."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-b","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. 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Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. 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