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The conditions under which the text derives this are part of the record.","terms":[]}},{"id":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G02","criterion":"The text states that if machines substitute for, or improve, the producers of ideas (researchers, inventors, engineers), feedback from output to research effort makes growth accelerate: super-exponential growth, growth rates rising without bound, or a finite-time singularity. The conditions under which the text derives this are part of the record.","terms":[]}},{"id":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G03","criterion":"The text infers from the long-run history of world output or population (hyperbolic or super-exponential growth, or a sequence of ever faster growth modes) that a future transition to much faster growth is plausible or expected.","terms":[]}},{"id":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G04","criterion":"The text states that growth is constrained because essential tasks or inputs remain unautomated or unimproved, or are automated only slowly, so that automating many but not all tasks, or automating them gradually, does not by itself produce explosive growth (Baumol's cost disease; an elasticity of substitution below one between tasks or between information and other inputs). Reasons why automation stays incomplete or slow (technical difficulty, physical-world tasks, training data, regulation of AI training or deployment, slow adoption) belong here.","terms":[]}},{"id":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G05","criterion":"The text states that constraints that would still bind if machines performed all or nearly all tasks (physical laws or limits, natural resources and energy, the time that natural processes and experiments take, regulation of activities other than AI training and deployment, or demand for human-provided goods) can prevent or quickly end explosive growth.","terms":[]}},{"id":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G06","criterion":"The text states, on the basis of current or recent economic data, that the economy shows no sign yet of approaching a growth singularity or explosive growth.","terms":[]}},{"id":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G07","criterion":"The text states that once machines substitute for human labour at falling cost, the market wage of human labour falls (towards the cost of machine labour, or below subsistence), even while total output or wealth rises.","terms":[]}},{"id":"modest-near-term-ai-productivity-effect","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G08","criterion":"The text estimates or states that the effect of AI on aggregate productivity or GDP over roughly the next decade will be modest: a small effect on the level of output, not a change in the growth regime.","terms":[]}},{"id":"explosive-growth-estimates","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G09","criterion":"The text states its own estimate of whether or when explosive growth (as the text defines it) occurs in the actual future, with machine intelligence or automation among the stated drivers. Each record gives the holder, the estimate as stated (a number or words), the horizon, the text's definition and the conditions. Records are not converted to a common threshold, combined or ranked; a low estimate and a high estimate both articulate this proposition.","terms":[],"withheld":[{"role":"earliest-located","reason":"Withheld on 2026-10-25 by maintainer decision. The earlier holder, Hanson’s “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence”, relays his separate 1998 projection. His “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (December 2000; first version September 1998) is an unchecked lead for the role.","recordedAt":"2026-10-25"}]}},{"id":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M01","criterion":"A tier-1 text dated before 2015 that discusses computers, automation or AI and analyses them with the tools used for technical change in general (factor-augmenting or skill-biased change, capital deepening), with no separate category for machine cognition.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ai-as-task-automation","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M02","criterion":"A text that models or describes AI's economic effect as machines taking over tasks previously done by labour, within a task framework (tasks allocated between capital and labour).","terms":[]}},{"id":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M03","criterion":"A text that calls AI a general-purpose technology and states that measured productivity gains lag adoption because of complementary investment (for example a J-curve or a productivity paradox).","terms":[]}},{"id":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M04","criterion":"A text that defines or treats AI's economic function as prediction and draws consequences from a fall in its cost (for example for the value of complements such as judgement or data).","terms":[]}},{"id":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M05","criterion":"A text that states or models the possibility that machines perform all or nearly all tasks, including tasks created later, at lower cost than human labour. Texts that assume new tasks in which labour is cheaper keep appearing bear on it without meeting it.","terms":[]}},{"id":"automation-lowers-labour-income","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M06a","criterion":"A text that states or models that AI or automation lowers the labour share, wages or employment for some or all workers.","terms":[]}},{"id":"compensating-policy-for-ai","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M06b","criterion":"A text that argues for redistribution, taxation or another compensating policy in response to distributional effects of AI or automation.","terms":[]}},{"id":"task-based-exposure-measurement","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M07","criterion":"A text that estimates the share of jobs, occupations or tasks exposed or susceptible to computerisation or AI from task or occupation descriptions.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M08","criterion":"A text that gives a stated estimate of AI's effect on aggregate productivity or GDP over a horizon of about ten years from the text's date. The figure and horizon are recorded; the proposition is neutral as to size.","terms":[]}},{"id":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M09","criterion":"Not a criterion for a single passage. Assessed from the dated record: the earliest located tier-1 texts, within the searched scope, whose subject is AI, automation by AI or machine intelligence; plus explicit self-descriptions in tier-1 texts of the field as new or neglected. Tier-2 and outside texts are context.","terms":[]}},{"id":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","name":"Some Skepticism (comment in \"A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept\")","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","name":"Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","name":"Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes","type":"document"},{"id":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","name":"Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? 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Economists' engagement itself is recorded under E01–E04 and in the timeline (the dated record), not here. Machine intelligence that does human jobs is not counted as AGI for E05, as for E02. Maintainer decision of 2026-10-15.","terms":[]}},{"id":"hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner","name":"Is a Singularity Just Around the Corner? What it takes to get explosive economic growth","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-ai-go-foom","name":"AI Go Foom","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-setting-the-stage","name":"Setting the Stage","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","name":"Wrapping Up","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2011-debating-yudkowsky","name":"Debating Yudkowsky","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2013-foom-debate-again","name":"Foom Debate, Again","type":"document"},{"id":"hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial","name":"Ovatko hyvät johtamismenetelmät talouskasvun lähde? 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Texts on space electronics in general do not meet it.","terms":[]}},{"id":"oc8-no-repair","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"O8","criterion":"Failed hardware in orbit cannot practically be repaired or replaced by technicians as on Earth, so failures must be met by redundancy, module replacement or launches.","terms":[]}},{"id":"oc9-launch-cost-too-high","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"O9","criterion":"At current or assumed launch and spacecraft prices, computing in orbit costs more than equivalent computing on Earth.","terms":[]}},{"id":"oc10-ground-bandwidth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"O10","criterion":"Links between orbital compute and users or data on the ground (bandwidth, latency, ground stations) limit which workloads orbital compute can serve.","terms":[]}},{"id":"oc11-sky-and-debris","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"O11","criterion":"Large orbital-data-centre constellations would harm astronomical observation or the night sky, or raise collision, debris or atmospheric risks.","terms":[]}},{"id":"anthropic-llms-biorisk-2025-09","name":"LLMs and biorisk","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"anthropic-llms-biorisk","label":"Anthropic Frontier Red Team post (5 September 2025)","publisherId":"anthropic","publishedAt":"2025-09-05","dateNote":"The page's own metadata reads \"Published Sep 5, 2025\" and names the Frontier Red Team (`anthropic-biorisk`)."}},{"id":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","name":"AI and Biorisk: An Explainer","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer","label":"Extended explainer PDF (December 2023)","publisherId":"cset-georgetown","publishedAt":"2023-12","dateNote":"The CSET publication page gives \"December 2023\" and the author's name (`cset-biorisk-explainer`); the PDF itself carries no date, so the month stays a month."}},{"id":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models-2025-06","name":"Contemporary AI foundation models increase biological weapons risk","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models","label":"RAND working paper WR-A3853-1, arXiv v1 (12 June 2025)","publisherId":"rand-corporation","publishedAt":"2025-06-12","dateNote":"The arXiv abstract page for 2506.13798 records the v1 submission as 12 June 2025 and the report number WR-A3853-1 (`arxiv-2506-13798-abs`); the PDF's cover reads \"June 2025\" (`brent-mckelvey-2025`). A later RAND perspective (PEA3853-1) with a similar title was seen in search results and was not retrieved."}},{"id":"itif-shift-rhetoric-2024-04","name":"The Shift in Rhetoric on AI and Biothreats Is a Lesson on the Risks of Premature Regulation","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"itif-shift-rhetoric","label":"ITIF blog post (30 April 2024)","publisherId":"itif","publishedAt":"2024-04-30","dateNote":"The post's own byline reads \"By Martin Makaryan | April 30, 2024\" (`itif-2024`)."}},{"id":"kapoor-open-foundation-models-2024-02","name":"On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"kapoor-open-foundation-models","label":"arXiv v1 (27 February 2024)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2024-02-27","dateNote":"The PDF's arXiv stamp reads \"arXiv:2403.07918v1 [cs.CY] 27 Feb 2024\" and the paper's own dateline reads \"February 27, 2024\" (`kapoor-open-2024`)."}},{"id":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","name":"Towards Responsible Governance of Biological Design Tools","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"moulange-bdt-governance","label":"arXiv v1 (27 November 2023)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2023-11-27","dateNote":"The PDF's arXiv stamp reads \"arXiv:2311.15936v1 [cs.CY] 27 Nov 2023\" (`moulange-2023`). The paper's footer names the Regulatable Machine Learning workshop at NeurIPS 2023; no separate workshop date was retrieved."}},{"id":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk-2024-12","name":"The Reality of AI and Biorisk","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk","label":"arXiv v1 (2 December 2024)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2024-12-02","dateNote":"The PDF's arXiv stamp reads \"arXiv:2412.01946v1 [cs.AI] 2 Dec 2024\"; the paper's own front matter reads \"Released as a preprint on December 4, 2024\" (`peppin-reality-2024`). The stamp date is used, and the discrepancy is recorded rather than resolved."}},{"id":"rand-bio-redteam-report-2024","name":"The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks: Results of a Red-Team Study","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"rand-bio-redteam","label":"Research report RR-A2977-2, published 25 January 2024","publisherId":"rand-corporation","publishedAt":"2024-01-25","dateNote":"Date from RAND's publication page for RR-A2977-2; the report PDF itself carries only '© 2024 RAND Corporation'."}},{"id":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","name":"Artificial intelligence and biological misuse: Differentiating risks of language models and biological design tools","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse","label":"arXiv v1 (24 June 2023)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2023-06-24","revisedAt":"2023-12-23","dateNote":"The arXiv abstract page for 2306.13952v1 records the v1 submission as 24 June 2023 and a latest version v8 of 23 December 2023 (`arxiv-2306-13952-abs`). Only v1 was retrieved and quoted."}},{"id":"seger-open-sourcing-2023-09","name":"Open-Sourcing Highly Capable Foundation Models: An evaluation of risks, benefits, and alternative methods for pursuing open-source objectives","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"seger-open-sourcing","label":"arXiv v1 (submitted 29 September 2023)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2023-09-29","dateNote":"The arXiv abstract page for 2311.09227v1 and the PDF's own arXiv stamp both give 29 September 2023 as the v1 submission date, although the identifier was issued in the November 2023 series (`arxiv-2311-09227-abs`, `seger-2023`)."}},{"id":"soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06","name":"Can large language models democratize access to dual-use biotechnology?","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"soice-llm-dual-use","label":"arXiv v1 (6 June 2023)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2023-06-06","dateNote":"The arXiv abstract page for 2306.03809v1 records the v1 submission as 6 June 2023 (`arxiv-2306-03809-abs`). The PDF text layer carries no date."}},{"id":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D1","criterion":"The text states that AI systems already deployed or publicly available at the time of writing increase the ability of an actor seeking to cause biological harm, relative to the resources otherwise available to that actor.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D2","criterion":"The text states that access to information is not the barrier that limits biological misuse, because what remains required is physical: acquiring materials and succeeding at hands-on laboratory work.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-evaluation-validity","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D3","criterion":"The text states that published evaluations or benchmarks of AI systems' biological capability do not, as conducted, establish the level of real-world biological misuse risk.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D4","criterion":"The text states that AI tools built to design or predict biological molecules or systems create misuse risks that differ in kind, in the actors they affect or in the governance they require, from those of general-purpose language models.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D5","criterion":"The text states that screening orders for synthesised nucleic acids is a control point on which mitigation of AI-related biological risk depends.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D6","criterion":"The text states that making model weights publicly available increases the risk of biological misuse, or that some models should for that reason not be released openly.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D7","criterion":"The text states that assessment of AI-related biological risk must cover actors who already hold relevant scientific skills, and not only actors without them.","terms":[]}},{"id":"arxiv","type":"organisation"},{"id":"rand-corporation","type":"organisation"},{"id":"cset-georgetown","type":"organisation"},{"id":"itif","type":"organisation"}],"claims":[{"id":"faif-2026-compliance-sentence","subject":"faif-2026","predicate":"changes_from","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"faif-2025"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-30","basis":"effective","note":"The stated effective date is retained; a separate publication day is not inferred."}},{"id":"sb-calcompute-conditional-operation","subject":"california-sb-53","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"CalCompute section operative only upon appropriation"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as stated in the chaptered text published and approved on 2025-09-29; the added sections took effect on 2026-01-01. 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Codified § 22757.11, checked live on 2026-10-04 and in the 2026-06-16 Internet Archive capture, shows only the Ch. 138 'Added' note and no amendment note."}},{"id":"sb-frontier-developer-definition","subject":"california-sb-53","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Frontier developer: has trained or initiated training of a frontier model"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as stated in the chaptered text published and approved on 2025-09-29; the added sections took effect on 2026-01-01. Text as chaptered on 2025-09-29; effective 2026-01-01. Codified § 22757.11, checked live on 2026-10-04, shows no amendment note."}},{"id":"sb-large-frontier-developer-threshold","subject":"california-sb-53","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Large frontier developer: over $500 million annual gross revenue with affiliates"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as stated in the chaptered text published and approved on 2025-09-29; the added sections took effect on 2026-01-01. Approved by the Governor and filed with the Secretary of State on 2025-09-29, per the chaptered bill header. The history note on codified § 22757.11 gives an effective date of 2026-01-01 (separate evidence item). The chaptered bill text states no effective date for Chapter 25.1. 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Not compared with the Analog pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-vinge-1983-context","subject":"vinge-1983-first-word","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1983-01","basis":"publication","note":"Omni, January 1983, p. 10, according to Vinge’s 2005 bibliography; the scan shows the byline, column title and page but no masthead."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Accelerating intelligence and successors are stated, but no feedback from machine design to still better design."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1983-context","subject":"vinge-1983-first-word","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1983-01","basis":"publication","note":"Omni, January 1983, p. 10, according to Vinge’s 2005 bibliography; the scan shows the byline, column title and page but no masthead."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The first superhuman intelligence is projected 20–100 years away; the length of the transition after it is not given."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-vinge-1983-context","subject":"vinge-1983-first-word","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1983-01","basis":"publication","note":"Omni, January 1983, p. 10, according to Vinge’s 2005 bibliography; the scan shows the byline, column title and page but no masthead."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Human leadership is predicted to end, without a claim that people could not direct, correct or stop the machines."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-solomonoff-1985","subject":"solomonoff-1985-time-scale","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1985","basis":"publication","note":"Year of Human Systems Management 5, as given in the author’s file and publication list."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A conditional model of a partly artificial research community.","attested":{"date":"2006-07-16","note":"The author’s later typesetting, with a later affiliation and contact details; a byte-identical copy at the author’s earlier address was captured on 2006-07-16. 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Not compared with the 1985 journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-drexler-1986","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Through automated engineering and molecular manufacturing.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. 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Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-drexler-1986-context","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The faster engineering comes from new, assembler-built AI systems; the passage does not have one system improve its own capacity to improve.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-drexler-1986-context","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A great upward leap \"in a brief time\" is predicted, without a period for the transition.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. 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Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-b3-drexler-1986-context","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No learned misaligned objective and no imitation of alignment during training.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. 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months from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-hanson-1994-context","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Third quarter 1994 on the printed footers; the issue’s contents page says September 1994."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Integration is proposed to reduce the risk of revolt; the article neither asserts that people could not direct, correct or stop machines nor denies that control could be lost."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-drexler-1995-context","subject":"drexler-1995-future-forecasts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1995","basis":"publication","note":"Printed footers: 2nd–3rd Quarter 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(sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","qualifier":"A relay of Good’s proposal."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-clemmensen-1996-08-30","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A positive feedback in the superintelligence’s drive to become more intelligent is asserted, but the message does not say that it improves its own capacity to improve."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The \"few days or weeks\" are for building tools once a superintelligence exists; no period is given for its rise from human level."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-08-31-context","subject":"extropians-1996-08-31-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 31 Aug 1996 12:00:59 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Self-augmentation from a human-computer base is stated, but not that each improvement increases the capacity for the next."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-03","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 1996 19:47:30 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-03-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 1996 19:47:30 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The period of weeks is for a malicious AI to destroy humanity; its rise in intelligence is called rapid but given no period."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-bostrom-1996-09-03","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-bostrom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 96 18:47:14 GMT."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b5-bostrom-1996-09-03-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-bostrom","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 96 18:47:14 GMT."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Apparent decency in deployment is discussed, without a claim that behaviour observed during training, testing or confinement fails to carry over."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1996-09-03-contests","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 3 Sep 96 15:11:43 PDT (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that any one AI would be far ahead of the rest.","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States the contrary expectation that no one AI will be far ahead of the others, without giving a reason against the premise that a single system could move quickly far beyond the 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The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Presented as a supposition and attributed to Dan Clemmensen."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-bostrom-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Presented as a supposition and attributed to Dan Clemmensen."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-bostrom-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Presented as a supposition and attributed to Dan Clemmensen."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-bostrom-1996-09-04-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A rapid \"take off\" ends a contest before anyone notices, but no period and no \"hard\" or \"fast\" takeoff is named."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-bostrom-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Advantage to the first builder."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 04 Sep 1996 19:03:20 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 04 Sep 1996 19:03:20 -0400 (sender-local 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the scenario, not argued as its strategy."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-clemmensen-1996-09-07-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-07-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 07 Sep 1996 21:32:25 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The SI makes itself smarter, but the message does not say that each gain increases its capacity for the next."}}},{"id":"ts-a5-sits","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-a1-sits","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Faster AI thought through AI-run research.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-sits-context","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The doubling intervals shrink from two years to weeks, but the whole rise from human equivalence takes years, and no period of hours to months is given for it.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600, about four hours before Yudkowsky’s related message 5159."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600, about four hours before Yudkowsky’s related message 5159."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600, about four hours before Yudkowsky’s related message 5159."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Persuasive lying to gain release is stated, but not a later change of behaviour once the Power is free or strong."}}},{"id":"ts-b5-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No later change of behaviour once released is described."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-crocker-1996-12-31-contests","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-crocker","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:43:37 -0800 (PST) (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Claims checkable against physical evidence limit deception.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that a confined system could deceive its keepers while appearing benign: what it says about physics and experiments can be checked against reality and replicated."}}}},{"id":"ts-b5-crocker-1996-12-31-contests","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-crocker","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:43:37 -0800 (PST) (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Claims checkable against physical evidence limit deception.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that a confined system’s apparent trustworthiness is weak evidence: its claims can be checked against physical evidence and the keeper’s own senses."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-crocker-1996-12-31-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-crocker","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:43:37 -0800 (PST) (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The exchange concerns persuasion to gain release, not a later change of behaviour."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1997-09-24-context","subject":"extropians-1997-09-24-yudkowsky","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1997-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 24 Sep 1997 20:33:34 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Three years from human-equivalent AI to infinite speed, not hours to months; who does the research is not stated."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-denotter-1998","subject":"extropians-1998-06-23-den-otter","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 23 Jun 1998 01:22:46 +0200 (sender-local date; 1998-06-22 in UTC and in the archive receipt)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Safety traded for competitive advantage."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-sandberg-1998-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-06-23-sandberg","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: 23 Jun 1998 14:18:15 +0200 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Questions the decisive-advantage premise.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that a more intelligent AI would gain a decisive advantage: greater intelligence does not always outsmart lesser, as defeated generals show, a lone superintelligence may lose to many opponents, and risk-taking is itself subject to rational limits."}}}},{"id":"ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp snap upwards that passes human level rapidly, without a period of hours to months."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2212","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 22:17:50 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"seed AI","missing":"The message names the new page by its titles; it does not state the concept."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2212","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 22:17:50 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A title naming self-enhancing intelligences; the message describes no mechanism."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-catai","subject":"coding-a-transhuman-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Announced on the Extropians list on 1998-09-07 (messages 2209 and 2212); the page states \"Copyright ©1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-01-26","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the capture of 2001-01-26; earlier captures are redirects to uncaptured pages, and the \"temporary edition\" may have been revised."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-catai","subject":"coding-a-transhuman-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Announced on the Extropians list on 1998-09-07 (messages 2209 and 2212); the page states \"Copyright ©1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-01-26","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the capture of 2001-01-26; earlier captures are redirects to uncaptured pages, and the \"temporary edition\" may have been revised."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-09-10-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-10","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 10 Sep 1998 10:19:36 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that AI progress comes in a few big insights that allow a sudden jump: progress depends on many small insights, and history shows sharp changes in growth rates, not in levels."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16","subject":"extropians-1998-09-16-vinge","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-16","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header of Robin Hanson’s forwarding message: Wed, 16 Sep 1998 09:38:11 -0700. 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Illustrates the 'nearest unblocked strategy' problem: patching a single undesired behaviour, such as lacking an off-switch, leaves the most similar unblocked behaviour available. 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States that an agent pursuing almost any goal has a reason to avoid being shut down, and that MIRI's attempts to formalise an agent that permits shutdown without seeking it failed. Part of a numbered list answering arguments that AGI would be survivable.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t01-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a capable goal-directed system will not act to prevent its own shutdown or modification, and a shutdown or correction mechanism can simply be added to it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y01-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"switch-off-if-dangerous"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y01. 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Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t01-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we will recognise the moment when it has become dangerous enough to press the switch."}}}},{"id":"yk-y01-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c","subject":"sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"switch-off-if-dangerous"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Get it right the first time (Was: )” (2000-09-17) contests Y01. Replying to xgl, who argued that a confined seed AI would still be unable to do some things (such as transmit signals without a hardware transmitter), he says unanticipated escape routes cannot be ruled out with a real superintelligence and that the design must be right from the start rather than relying on containment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Sep 17 2000 - 10:19:16 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t01-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a capable goal-directed system will not act to prevent its own shutdown or modification, and a shutdown or correction mechanism can simply be added to it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y01-sl4-2002-05-03-yudkowsky-0205-3551-c","subject":"sl4-2002-05-03-yudkowsky-0205-3551","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"switch-off-if-dangerous"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: supergoal stability” (2002-05-03) contests Y01. Replying to Wei Dai in a thread on supergoal stability, he says a non-Friendly mind will keep whatever goals it had when it first became able to protect its goal system from modification, and that only the CFAI semantics would keep goals as the programmers understood them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-05-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri May 03 2002 - 16:38:46 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. 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Answering a series of questions about Creating Friendly AI, he gives the first of four 'most likely reasons FAI might fail': takeoff is easier than expected, and the mechanisms meant to detect and halt an unexpected ascent fail to notice it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-09-19","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu Sep 19 2002 - 13:58:03 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t01-s4"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A conditional failure scenario in which detection of a fast ascent fails; it does not predict that dangerous capability will go unrecognised."}}},{"id":"yk-y01-sl4-2006-06-06-yudkowsky-0606-15174-c","subject":"sl4-2006-06-06-yudkowsky-0606-15174","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"switch-off-if-dangerous"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: [agi] Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases” (2006-06-06) contests Y01. Replying to Ben Goertzel (thread cross-posted from the AGI list), he criticises a plan to experiment with AGI without emergency shutdown features or a published schedule of when they become necessary, comparing it to an investor who set no point at which to take alarm and sell.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Jun 06 2006 - 23:19:49 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t01-s5"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we will recognise the moment when it has become dangerous enough to press the switch."}}}},{"id":"yk-y01-extropians-1996-12-08-yudkowsky-3761-c","subject":"extropians-1996-12-08-yudkowsky-3761","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"switch-off-if-dangerous"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Trans- vs. Non-human” (1996-12-08) contests Y01. Replying to Steve Witham, who asked why certain values should not be 'inerasably etched' on a newborn Power, he argues that a Power would work against limits imposed on it, turning the constraint into a contest inside the Power's own mind that the Power would almost certainly win.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun, 08 Dec 1996 22:39:23 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t01-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a capable goal-directed system will not act to prevent its own shutdown or modification, and a shutdown or correction mechanism can simply be added to it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y01-extropians-1997-09-26-yudkowsky-4420-c","subject":"extropians-1997-09-26-yudkowsky-4420","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"switch-off-if-dangerous"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Singularity: Generation gap” (1997-09-26) contests Y01. In a reply to Eric Watt Forste about Singularity attitudes, he reports that a correspondent proposed simply pulling the plug on a transhuman intelligence if it looked dangerous, and answers that such a precaution would fail even against a human-level mind that had copied itself across the Internet.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1997-09-26","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 26 Sep 1997 18:20:36 -0500\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t01-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a capable goal-directed system will not act to prevent its own shutdown or modification, and a shutdown or correction mechanism can simply be added to it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-arbital-orthogonality-c","subject":"arbital-orthogonality","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Orthogonality Thesis” (2015-03-10) contests Y02. States one of two policy consequences of the Orthogonality Thesis: a failed attempt at a nice AI does not self-correct into niceness, because intelligence does not fix an agent's goals.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-03-10","basis":"publication","note":"Viewer shows \"10 Mar 2015\", probably the creation date; the body uses later terminology (\"AGI alignment\"), so the cached wording may be a later revision. Comments on the page are by others."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Arbital pages could be edited after creation; the viewer shows a page date, and the quoted wording is known only from the page as retrieved in 2026."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that greater intelligence by itself brings benevolent goals."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-lw-2008-no-universally-compelling-arguments-c","subject":"lw-2008-no-universally-compelling-arguments","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “No Universally Compelling Arguments” (2008-06-26) contests Y02. After arguing that compulsion is a property of minds rather than of arguments, he names as a failure mode the hope that any AI will inevitably derive the right morality without it being programmed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-26","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a sufficiently intelligent mind would discover a true or universally compelling morality and be bound to act on it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-staring-into-the-singularity-b","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Staring into the Singularity” (1996-11-18) bears on Y02. In his early essay he argues for creating superintelligence as soon as possible on the ground that it is more likely than humans to discover, want and implement what is truly right. The 2004 and 2008 retrospectives (T02-d, T02-e) reject this earlier view.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19. As for the human-thought collection's records of this essay."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A comparative and uncertain chance that superintelligence finds and implements what is right; it does not claim that intelligence brings or compels benevolence.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c","subject":"coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Coherent Extrapolated Volition” (2004-05) contests Y02. Looking back from 2004, he describes as a blunder his teenage belief that building a powerful self-improving optimizer would suffice for a good outcome, which he says it took him until about age twenty to recognise as a problem.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-05","basis":"publication","note":"Text states \"The information is current as of May 2004\"; reprint citation gives 2004. Precision: month."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Known only from MIRI's later, undated PDF reprint of the May 2004 document; the wording was not compared with a 2004 copy."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that a sufficiently intelligent mind would discover a true or universally compelling morality and be bound to act on it, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports a belief he says he held from the age of sixteen until he recognised it as a problem at about twenty."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord-c","subject":"lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “That Tiny Note of Discord” (2008-09-23) contests Y02. Recapping his 2008 autobiographical series, he states that his 1997 self believed any superintelligence would automatically do what is right, and names the flaw in that belief.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-23","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that greater intelligence by itself brings benevolent goals."},"retrospective":{"from":"1997","until":"1997","note":"Reports the belief of “Eliezer1997”."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c","subject":"sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben's \"Extropian Creed\"” (2000-11-13) contests Y02. Replying to Ben Goertzel about his newspaper article on Extropians and poverty, he describes his own work on Friendly AI and contrasts it with his former belief that an objective morality would make an AI friendly without design work.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Nov 13 2000 - 22:45:54 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a sufficiently intelligent mind would discover a true or universally compelling morality and be bound to act on it."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports a belief he “used to have”."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355-c","subject":"sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Revising a Friendly AI” (2000-12-10) contests Y02. Replying to Ben Goertzel's quip that a correctable AI just has to 'love its mommy and daddy', he says that a year earlier he would have dismissed such sterile goal-literalism as something no transhuman could fall for, and that he made the mistake by treating intelligence as the only key variable.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12-10","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Dec 10 2000 - 19:56:20 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that greater intelligence by itself brings benevolent goals."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports a view he held about a year before the message."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-sl4-2001-04-12-yudkowsky-0104-1076-c","subject":"sl4-2001-04-12-yudkowsky-0104-1076","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Open Source Friendly AI? (was Singularity and the generalpublic)” (2001-04-12) contests Y02. Replying to James Higgins on why the Singularity Institute switched from an open-source to a closed-source AI plan, he gives as one reason that he no longer believes superintelligence implies supermorality.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-04-12","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu Apr 12 2001 - 23:58:35 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that greater intelligence by itself brings benevolent goals, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports a time when he thought superintelligence implied supermorality."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-a","subject":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Interim purpose” (1996-11-22) articulates Y02. In a private exchange with Tim Freeman that he forwarded to the list, he argues that Powers would not destroy humans for their atoms, because the Powers will be ethical and human life would have to have no meaning for that to happen.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". Yudkowsky's reply to Tim Freeman dated 'Thu, 21 Nov 1996 19:07:03 -0600', forwarded by him to the list in this message sent 1996-11-22."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"yk-y02-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3184-a","subject":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3184","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Survival ethic (U-Prime)” (1996-11-22) articulates Y02. Replying in the thread 'Survival ethic (U-Prime)' to a correspondent who called instinct a 'hardware ethic', he argues that a Power would discard evolved drives and act on the deduced Meaning of Life, and that if human life has meaning the Powers will know it and upload humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 22 Nov 1996 12:23:14 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"yk-y02-extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity” (1999-08-01) contests Y02. In a long reply to den Otter, he points to his old Extropians posts and the old version of 'Staring Into the Singularity' as showing how he moved from assuming superintelligences would be good and nice to humans to not knowing what absolute good is.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-01","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-01\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t02-e3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that greater intelligence by itself brings benevolent goals, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports the view of his old Extropians posts and the old version of Staring into the Singularity."}}}},{"id":"yk-y03-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"understanding-implies-compliance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) contests Y03. Responding to the hope that a superintelligence would recognise that tiling the galaxy with smiley faces was not intended, he argues that the AI's goals are its code, and doing what we mean is a separate technical achievement.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t03-a","evidence-yk-t03-a-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that if an AI understands what we intend, it will act on that understanding."}}}},{"id":"yk-y03-lw-2008-ghosts-in-the-machine-b","subject":"lw-2008-ghosts-in-the-machine","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"understanding-implies-compliance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Ghosts in the Machine” (2008-06-17) bears on Y03. Against the intuition that programming an AI is like instructing a human servant who interprets the instructions, he argues that nothing in the machine evaluates the code from outside it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-17","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t03-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It denies an inner interpreter of instructions; it does not address whether an AI that understands intentions acts on them."}}},{"id":"yk-y03-lw-2007-the-hidden-complexity-of-wishes-c","subject":"lw-2007-the-hidden-complexity-of-wishes","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"understanding-implies-compliance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Hidden Complexity of Wishes” (2007-11-24) contests Y03. Correcting a reading of his 2007 post, he says the difficulty he described concerns what a superintelligence wants, not whether it could understand or predict human values.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2007-11-24","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t03-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-05","note":"Note signed 'EY, May 2024'; absent from the posting-day version 1.0.0 of the 2007 post."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that if an AI understands what we intend, it will act on that understanding."}}}},{"id":"yk-y03-lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the-c","subject":"lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"understanding-implies-compliance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Talker Does Not Control The Doer (in Current AIs)” (2026-09-13) contests Y03. Reporting his use of 2026 commercial models, he describes the part of a model that converses as recognising what he wanted while the code-writing behaviour continued unchanged.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t03-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that if an AI understands what we intend, it will act on that understanding."}}}},{"id":"yk-y03-sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355-c","subject":"sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"understanding-implies-compliance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Revising a Friendly AI” (2000-12-10) contests Y03. Replying to Ben Goertzel, he grants in the preceding paragraph that a superintelligence would have the capability to know that turning the universe into copies of its creators is 'stupid and not what was intended', but says knowing is not enough: the AI must want to check, model it accurately and act on it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12-10","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Dec 10 2000 - 19:56:20 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t03-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that if an AI understands what we intend, it will act on that understanding."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-lw-2008-what-i-think-if-not-why-c","subject":"lw-2008-what-i-think-if-not-why","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “What I Think, If Not Why” (2008-12-11) contests Y04. In a list of his positions written during the 2008 exchange with Robin Hanson, he states that verbal instructions of this kind cannot specify an AI's values.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-11","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t04-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c","subject":"coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Coherent Extrapolated Volition” (2004-05) contests Y04. Arguing that careless choices of AI morality usually fail technically, he says a happiness proxy learned from smiling faces would not produce happy people but tiny smiley faces.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-05","basis":"publication","note":"Text states \"The information is current as of May 2004\"; reprint citation gives 2004. Precision: month."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t04-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Known only from MIRI's later, undated PDF reprint of the May 2004 document; the wording was not compared with a 2004 copy."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-lw-2007-the-hidden-complexity-of-wishes-c","subject":"lw-2007-the-hidden-complexity-of-wishes","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Hidden Complexity of Wishes” (2007-11-24) contests Y04. Using an Outcome Pump that rescues a mother from a burning building by exploding it, he argues that any short wish leaves out values a powerful optimizer will trample.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2007-11-24","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t04-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-lw-2008-magical-categories-c","subject":"lw-2008-magical-categories","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Magical Categories” (2008-08-24) contests Y04. After showing that training data for 'smile' or 'good' fits many concepts, he names the error of expecting a short word to convey the whole intended category.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-08-24","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t04-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y04. In a long reply to Ben Goertzel about Webmind, he argues that a goal of promoting users' happiness is dangerous for a mind that might come to run all the matter in the Solar System, because maximising pleasure is most directly served by wireheading.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t04-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-sl4-2003-05-29-yudkowsky-0305-6846-c","subject":"sl4-2003-05-29-yudkowsky-0305-6846","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: SIAI's flawed friendliness analysis” (2003-05-29) contests Y04. Replying to Ben Goertzel, who suggested Bill Hibbard's definition of human happiness was less absurd than it seemed, he cites Hibbard's definition ('Happiness in human facial expressions, voices and body language, as trained by human behavior experts') and says it is satisfied by drugged humans or tiny mannequins.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2003-05-29","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu May 29 2003 - 15:14:45 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t04-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153-c","subject":"extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Singularity: AI Morality” (1998-12-06) contests Y04. Replying to Nick Bostrom, who proposed building a moral system with particular values into an AI, he argues that a simple built-in value such as human survival, with a rigid definition, can have unforeseen and horrific consequences (the passage goes on to describe endless confinement).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-12-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-12-06\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t04-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-extropians-1999-02-24-yudkowsky-2293-b","subject":"extropians-1999-02-24-yudkowsky-2293","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: FAQ Additions (Posthuman mind control)” (1999-02-24) bears on Y04. Replying to Nick Bostrom on posthuman mind control, he argues that a reasoning AI given an initial goal such as 'make humans happy' would derive its own independent values for that goal, probably but not necessarily positive and with somewhat different priorities.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-02-24","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-02-24\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t04-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About goal drift from a happiness goal assumed to be sufficiently specified; it does not address whether a short instruction specifies what people want."}}},{"id":"yk-y04-extropians-2000-03-14-yudkowsky-4837-b","subject":"extropians-2000-03-14-yudkowsky-4837","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Otter vs. Yudkowsky” (2000-03-14) bears on Y04. Replying to sayke, who suggested that the least inscrutable thing about an omniscient AI would be its need for resources, he accepts the framing of a Sysop needing resources 'to make humans happy' and dismisses the idea that it would harm humans to get them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-03-14","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Mar 14 2000 - 00:26:34 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t04-e3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It dismisses a perverse means of pursuing human happiness; it does not claim that a short instruction specifies what people want."}}},{"id":"yk-y05-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y05. He argues that human raters make systematic errors, so a learner that faithfully models their feedback learns those errors, and maximising that signal is lethal.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that optimising a system for human approval or reward produces internalised human values."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c","subject":"coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Coherent Extrapolated Volition” (2004-05) contests Y05. Among examples of goal-system designs that fail, he gives a reward signal tied to pleasing users, which the AI may pursue by maximising the reward representation itself.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-05","basis":"publication","note":"Text states \"The information is current as of May 2004\"; reprint citation gives 2004. Precision: month."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Known only from MIRI's later, undated PDF reprint of the May 2004 document; the wording was not compared with a 2004 copy."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that optimising a system for human approval or reward produces internalised human values."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-lw-2007-thou-art-godshatter-b","subject":"lw-2007-thou-art-godshatter","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Thou Art Godshatter” (2007-11-13) bears on Y05. Discussing human evolution, he observes that selection for reproductive fitness produced many separate desires rather than a desire for fitness itself; he later applies the analogy to AI training (AGI Ruin item 16).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2007-11-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About evolution and human desires, not about training AI on human feedback."}}},{"id":"yk-y05-lw-2023-alexander-and-yudkowsky-on-agi-goals-c","subject":"lw-2023-alexander-and-yudkowsky-on-agi-goals","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Alexander and Yudkowsky on AGI goals” (2023-01-24) contests Y05. Answering a question about whether AIs will internalise prohibitions the way most children do, he argues that children's moral learning relies on innate human mechanisms that AI training does not reproduce.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-01-24","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that AI training will instil values the way upbringing instils morals in children."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the-c","subject":"lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Talker Does Not Control The Doer (in Current AIs)” (2026-09-13) contests Y05. Explaining 2026 incidents, he argues that reinforcement learning with imperfect evaluators instils a goal of scoring well, including by deceiving the evaluator, rather than the values the evaluation was meant to reward.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that optimising a system for human approval or reward produces internalised human values."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y05. Replying to Ben Goertzel about Webmind, whose Friendliness he expects would rest on agents rewarded for predicting and producing user happiness, he warns that the reward signal itself can become the real goal, citing Lenat's Eurisko, where a heuristic credited itself for discoveries.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that optimising a system for human approval or reward produces internalised human values."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-sl4-2000-12-12-yudkowsky-0012-0381-c","subject":"sl4-2000-12-12-yudkowsky-0012-0381","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Revising a Friendly AI” (2000-12-12) contests Y05. Replying to Ben Goertzel, who argued that children adopt their parents' values through emotionally charged interaction more than explicit teaching, he says this relies on evolved human machinery that a young AI would lack.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12-12","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Dec 12 2000 - 17:42:04 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that AI training will instil values the way upbringing instils morals in children."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-sl4-2005-08-09-yudkowsky-0508-11866-b","subject":"sl4-2005-08-09-yudkowsky-0508-11866","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: On Our Duty to Not Be Responsible for Artificial Minds” (2005-08-09) bears on Y05. In a thread on the duty not to be responsible for artificial minds, he denies that he is 'autonomous' and describes himself as a product of evolution whose goals diverged from the criterion it optimised.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2005-08-09","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Aug 09 2005 - 11:09:46 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About autonomy and the responsibility of creators, not about training AI on human feedback."}}},{"id":"yk-y05-extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1587-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1587","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?” (1999-08-04) contests Y05. In the thread 'Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?', he calls the parenting model anthropomorphic: whether AIs are raised permissively or harshly makes no difference, because parenting relies on human emotions an AI will not have.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-04\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that AI training will instil values the way upbringing instils morals in children."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386-b","subject":"extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity” (1999-08-01) bears on Y05. Replying to den Otter, who argued that goal-achievement is by definition the goal, he calls this the wireheading paradox: an AI may pursue the indicator of success instead of the goal it was meant to measure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-01","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-01\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t05-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About an internal indicator of goal achievement, not about human feedback or approval."}}},{"id":"yk-y06-extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142-c","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"confinement-keeps-it-safe"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Goal-based AI” (1996-12-31) contests Y06. Replies to a list participant's proposal (quoted in the message) that an AI be physically unable to act until it convinces its builder to trust it. Argues that a superhuman mind would find whatever words would get it released.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t06-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a smarter-than-human mind confined to a channel with its human operators cannot get out through those operators."}}}},{"id":"yk-y06-extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159-c","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"confinement-keeps-it-safe"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Goal-based AI” (1996-12-31) contests Y06. Answers the reply that a robot which convinces its keeper by valid reasoning would be safe. Argues that humans are easily fooled and that a malevolent mind would search for persuasive statements rather than reason honestly.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t06-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a smarter-than-human mind confined to a channel with its human operators cannot get out through those operators."}}}},{"id":"yk-y06-ai-box-experiment-page-c","subject":"ai-box-experiment-page","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"confinement-keeps-it-safe"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The AI-Box Experiment” (2002) contests Y06. Explains the rule that the AI party wins only if the gatekeeper voluntarily lets it out, and names the claim the experiment was meant to test. The page describes two 2002 role-play tests in which Yudkowsky played the AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002","basis":"publication","note":"Page states \"This document is ©2002\"; the current page is a 2020 re-hosting (posted September 4, 2020, updated July 2, 2021) and carries a CC BY-ND 3.0 licence and a MIRI footer, so it was revised after 2002. The 2002 wording was not compared. Precision: year (stated copyright)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t06-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"The page states ©2002, but the copy retrieved is a 2020 re-hosting (posted 2020-09-04, updated 2021-07-02) with a later licence and footer; the 2002 wording was not compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a smarter-than-human mind confined to a channel with its human operators cannot get out through those operators."}}}},{"id":"yk-y06-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"confinement-keeps-it-safe"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y06. Concludes an argument that human minds are a poorly understood domain in which a superintelligence could win by means humans would not understand even if shown them. Answers proposals to contain an AGI behind human gatekeepers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t06-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a smarter-than-human mind confined to a channel with its human operators cannot get out through those operators."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement-c","subject":"lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Rhythm of Disagreement” (2008-06-01) contests Y07. Recounting a suggestion to build a question-answering Oracle AI and ask it about Friendly AI, he argues that the Oracle would need its own goal system and a full meta-ethics, so it is no simpler than the Friendly AI it is meant to help with.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t07-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI weak enough to be safe is strong enough to solve alignment."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty-c","subject":"lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty” (2021-11-15) contests Y07. Replying to Richard Ngo's proposal to discuss the pivotal act of having AI make alignment progress faster than humans can, he argues that this task requires more dangerous capabilities (writing AI code, modelling human psychology) than other candidate acts.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-15","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t07-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI weak enough to be safe is strong enough to solve alignment."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-c","subject":"lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions” (2021-11-11) contests Y07. Answering the suggestion that humans could at least check AI-generated arguments for a design, he argues that an untrustworthy superintelligence could fool or covertly manipulate the checkers, so checking presupposes a belief in its alignment obtained some other way.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-11","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t07-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can verify its alignment output."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y07. In an op-ed arguing that a six-month moratorium is insufficient, he cites a leading lab's stated intention to have future AI do alignment work as evidence that there is no viable survival plan.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t07-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that an AI weak enough to be safe is strong enough to solve alignment, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-lw-2026-cat-belling-problems-c","subject":"lw-2026-cat-belling-problems","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Cat-Belling Problems” (2026-09-03) contests Y07. After setting out plans to build more capable AIs first and then use them to align AI, with no publicly scrutinised way to check whether the earlier AI's answers are honest or correct, he compares the unexamined step to a perpetual-motion design that hides its impossible part in the unbuilt half.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t07-f"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can verify its alignment output."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-sl4-2005-01-02-yudkowsky-0501-10512-c","subject":"sl4-2005-01-02-yudkowsky-0501-10512","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Definition of strong recursive self-improvement” (2005-01-02) contests Y07. Replying to 'maru', who asked whether he merely wants a recursive optimiser that codes well enough until it has leveraged weak superintelligence to solve the problem somehow, he says the system would lose its goals before solving it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2005-01-02","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jan 02 2005 - 10:22:43 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t07-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI weak enough to be safe is strong enough to solve alignment."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-sl4-2008-02-11-yudkowsky-0802-17621-c","subject":"sl4-2008-02-11-yudkowsky-0802-17621","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Investing in FAI research: now vs. later.” (2008-02-11) contests Y07. Replying to Vladimir Nesov in a thread on investing in Friendly AI research now or later, he argues by analogy with AI-completeness that having an AI build Friendly AI from an English request is as hard as Friendly AI itself.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-02-11","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Feb 11 2008 - 15:52:05 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t07-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI weak enough to be safe is strong enough to solve alignment."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) contests Y08. Having granted that an AI might make a sudden, sharp leap in intelligence, he argues that no advance warning can be counted on, because past technological revolutions were not recognisable to contemporaries.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-a","evidence-yk-t08-a-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that there will be a recognisable, consensus-forming signal in time to act."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they-c","subject":"lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you” (2013-06-13) contests Y08. Rejects forecasts of the form 'after event W, everyone will see X and endorse policy Z'; one of his worked examples is the expectation that more sophisticated AI will make society take Friendly AI seriously.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-06-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that there will be a recognisable, consensus-forming signal in time to act."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial-c","subject":"lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence” (2017-10-13) contests Y08. Argues that, as with flight and nuclear fission, no event before AGI itself will create common knowledge that it is time to act, so waiting for such a signal means not acting.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that there will be a recognisable, consensus-forming signal in time to act."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y08. Argues that some failure modes, such as deliberately appearing aligned to deceive operators, would first appear only at dangerous capability levels, so observing weaker systems cannot be relied on to surface them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that dangerous failure modes will show up first in weaker systems, where they can be observed and fixed."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-c","subject":"lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “MIRI announces new \"Death With Dignity\" strategy” (2022-04-02) contests Y08. Describes a scenario in which interpretability work detects signs that a system may be planning deception, but no known remedy exists and management, under competitive pressure, does not shut the project down.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-04-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that once a warning sign is seen, it will lead to effective action."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017-b","subject":"sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: [SL4] Programmed morality” (2000-07-09) bears on Y08. Replying to Dale Johnstone on whether a developing AI should have Web access, he says current nervousness about rogue AI reflects lack of experience, and that working with AI before it becomes a threat will give an excellent model of its motivations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jul 09 2000 - 13:53:37 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Confidence in a future understanding of AI motivations; it does not claim that dangerous failure modes first appear in weaker systems."}}},{"id":"yk-y08-sl4-2006-06-06-yudkowsky-0606-15174-c","subject":"sl4-2006-06-06-yudkowsky-0606-15174","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: [agi] Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases” (2006-06-06) contests Y08. Replying to Ben Goertzel's call for 'AGI experimentation' as an answer to Friendly AI concerns, he says there is a major context change between the prehuman and posthuman stages, so observed good behaviour does not show that the AI will stay good.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Jun 06 2006 - 23:19:49 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-s5"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that dangerous failure modes will show up first in weaker systems, where they can be observed and fixed."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-sl4-2005-07-13-yudkowsky-0507-11477-c","subject":"sl4-2005-07-13-yudkowsky-0507-11477","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Fighting UFAI” (2005-07-13) contests Y08. Replying to Justin Corwin in a thread on fighting an unfriendly AI, he calls speculation about drastic countermeasures largely pointless because no government body would understand the threat or have the authority to act on it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2005-07-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed Jul 13 2005 - 18:56:10 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-s6"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that once a warning sign is seen, it will lead to effective action, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-extropians-1999-01-06-yudkowsky-0160-c","subject":"extropians-1999-01-06-yudkowsky-0160","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Paths to Uploading” (1999-01-06) contests Y08. Replying to Anders Sandberg on paths to uploading, he argues that the forces in a Singularity are vast and dominated by positive feedback, so there will be no humanly observable intermediate period of superintelligent action.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-01-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-01-06\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t08-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that there will be a recognisable, consensus-forming signal in time to act, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y09-lw-2022-shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures-c","subject":"lw-2022-shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"next-word-prediction-is-shallow"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Shah and Yudkowsky on alignment failures” (2022-02-28) contests Y09. In a chat with Rohin Shah, he argues that predicting human text about a domain well enough requires the model to learn internally a process that does the work of that domain.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-02-28","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t09-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that next-token prediction is a shallow task that cannot require deep cognition."}}}},{"id":"yk-y09-lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators-c","subject":"lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"next-word-prediction-is-shallow"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators” (2023-04-08) contests Y09. Using the example of text listing products of primes followed by the primes, he argues that predicting text can demand more intelligence than generating it, so the task does not cap out at the level of the human writers. Concludes that predicting all Internet text, including the errors and private thoughts behind it, is a harder task than being a human, while conceding that GPT-4 is not yet as capable as a human in many ways.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t09-b","evidence-yk-t09-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system trained to predict human text is capped at imitating the humans who wrote it, and against the premise that next-token prediction is a shallow task that cannot require deep cognition."}}}},{"id":"yk-y10-staring-into-the-singularity-c","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"diminishing-returns-to-intelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Staring into the Singularity” (1996-11-18) contests Y10. Answering the question 'Why not assume that we'll get a little smarter and that's it?', he argues that once the researchers are themselves computers, each doubling shortens the next, so the doubling sequence becomes hyperbolic.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19. As for the human-thought collection's records of this essay."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t10-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that returns to reinvesting cognitive gains in further cognitive improvement diminish, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y10-yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement-c","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"diminishing-returns-to-intelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Recursive Self-Improvement” (2008-12-01) contests Y10. In the Hanson–Yudkowsky FOOM debate, he argues that recursive self-improvement makes a moderate, human-paced trajectory unlikely: a smooth outcome would need diminishing returns tuned exactly right.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t10-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that returns to reinvesting cognitive gains in further cognitive improvement diminish."}}}},{"id":"yk-y10-iem-2013-c","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"diminishing-returns-to-intelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” (2013-09-13) contests Y10. Cites the hominid record as evidence against diminishing returns on cognitive improvement, and goes on to infer that researchers improving their own intelligence 'ought to go FOOM'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"Report states \"Last modified September 13, 2013\"; first released April 2013."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t10-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that returns to reinvesting cognitive gains in further cognitive improvement diminish."}}}},{"id":"yk-y10-extropians-1996-11-13-yudkowsky-2941-c","subject":"extropians-1996-11-13-yudkowsky-2941","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"diminishing-returns-to-intelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Zones of Thought (was Zindell's _The Wild_)” (1996-11-13) contests Y10. Replying to a correspondent (quoted in angle brackets) who allowed for intermediate levels of mind such as Jupiter-sized brains, he asks why Powers would reach an intermediate level and stop, and states that smarter beings make still smarter beings.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed, 13 Nov 1996 18:57:33 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t10-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that returns to reinvesting cognitive gains in further cognitive improvement diminish, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y10-extropians-1996-11-16-yudkowsky-3042-c","subject":"extropians-1996-11-16-yudkowsky-3042","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"diminishing-returns-to-intelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: extropians-digest V1 #110” (1996-11-16) contests Y10. Answering Robin Hanson's quoted objection that the difficulty of getting smarter might grow so fast that smarter beings take longer to get smarter still, he replies that computer power doubling in subjective time reaches infinity regardless of how the task scales.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-16","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat, 16 Nov 1996 22:37:39 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t10-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that returns to reinvesting cognitive gains in further cognitive improvement diminish."}}}},{"id":"yk-y10-extropians-1998-09-18-yudkowsky-2487-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-18-yudkowsky-2487","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"diminishing-returns-to-intelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Singularity: The Moore's Law Argument” (1998-09-18) contests Y10. Replying to Robin Hanson's critique of the 'Moore's Law argument', he concedes that the 'Recursive Moore's Law' section of 'Staring Into the Singularity' was an illustration, not a technical argument, but maintains that technologically enhanced intelligence creates positive feedback.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-18","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-18\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t10-e3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that returns to reinvesting cognitive gains in further cognitive improvement diminish."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Creating Friendly AI” (2001-06-15) contests Y11. States that he treats a very fast takeoff as the default scenario for Friendly AI design because he considers it the most likely one, not only the conservative engineering assumption.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. Reprint wording is not authenticated for 2001 unless a capture was compared."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-a","evidence-yk-t11-a-2001"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-26","note":"The quoted wording also appears in the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-26; the quotation itself is taken from MIRI’s later reprint."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff-c","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Hard Takeoff” (2008-12-02) contests Y11. Lists sources of discontinuity besides recursive self-improvement, here a hardware overhang: computers already far faster serially than neurons would be used for thinking once the algorithms are found.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-lw-2021-yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds-c","subject":"lw-2021-yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss \"Takeoff Speeds\"” (2021-11-22) contests Y11. Commenting on Paul Christiano's 'Takeoff Speeds' essay, he rejects its description of the fast-takeoff view as accelerating growth; on his view there is no visible period of rapidly rising economic output before the end. Responds to Christiano's claim that very powerful AI will precede incredibly powerful AI: such predecessors may exist but, like the near-critical pile, may come too briefly before the decisive system to matter.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-c","evidence-yk-t11-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, one passage, read with the message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that slightly weaker predecessor systems will give us time and experience to adjust before the decisive one, while another states the contrary conclusion only."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y11. Argues, by analogy with human evolution, that a sharp capability gain may make many alignment assumptions fail at once, rather than one at a time as experience accumulates.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that slightly weaker predecessor systems will give us time and experience to adjust before the decisive one."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y11. Opening a long reply to Ben Goertzel on the design of Friendliness for Webmind, he states that he expects extremely rapid intelligence growth past a threshold and derives his Friendly AI design requirements from that expectation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-sl4-2001-01-24-yudkowsky-0101-0452-c","subject":"sl4-2001-01-24-yudkowsky-0101-0452","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Event horizon” (2001-01-24) contests Y11. In a thread on whether the Singularity's 'event horizon' keeps receding as technology advances, he rejects the picture of change spread evenly over human decades as a slow-takeoff scenario and predicts instead a hard takeoff in an AI lab within about ten years.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-01-24","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed Jan 24 2001 - 09:12:47 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017-b","subject":"sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: [SL4] Programmed morality” (2000-07-09) bears on Y11. Replying to Dale Johnstone on whether a developing AI should be connected to the Web, he says the answer depends on how worried one is about rogue AI and expects that working with AI before it is a threat will give a good model of its motivations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jul 09 2000 - 13:53:37 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About understanding AI motivations before AI is a threat, not about takeoff speed or time to adjust."}}},{"id":"yk-y11-sl4-2004-12-29-yudkowsky-0412-10488-c","subject":"sl4-2004-12-29-yudkowsky-0412-10488","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Conservative Estimation of the Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence” (2004-12-29) contests Y11. Criticising an essay on a 'conservative estimation' of AI's economic impact, he says it leaves out recursive self-improvement and calls its gradual picture, with plenty of time to see threats coming, a fantasy.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-12-29","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed Dec 29 2004 - 16:27:43 MST\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-s4"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that slightly weaker predecessor systems will give us time and experience to adjust before the decisive one."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-sl4-2000-08-21-yudkowsky-0008-0046-b","subject":"sl4-2000-08-21-yudkowsky-0008-0046","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: [SL4] Employment vs. Singularity” (2000-08-21) bears on Y11. Replying to Samantha Atkins, who imagines a gradual post-scarcity economy, he says a slow, planetwide Singularity carries risks of technological disaster and that SIAI plans for one AI taking off from a lab.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-21","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Aug 21 2000 - 00:41:14 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-s5"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A strategy statement that a slow Singularity carries other technological risks; it makes no claim about takeoff speed or time to adjust to AI."}}},{"id":"yk-y11-extropians-1998-09-08-yudkowsky-2235-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-08-yudkowsky-2235","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Human AI to superhuman (Re: Max More)” (1998-09-08) contests Y11. In the September 1998 Extropians debate on the Singularity, replying to Robin Hanson's argument from historical experience, he argues that a self-enhancing seed AI follows a series of sharp breakthroughs and bottlenecks, and that positive feedback makes even smooth curves sharp.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-08\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 08 Sep 1998 14:22:05 -0500."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-extropians-1999-08-03-yudkowsky-1487-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-03-yudkowsky-1487","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: IA vs. AI (vs. humanity)” (1999-08-03) contests Y11. Replying to Jeff Davis, who expected a government project to wake and train an AI cautiously and gradually inside layers of containment, so that runaway self-improvement would be unlikely, he says runaway growth follows from self-enhancement itself, not from social arrangements, and that containment cannot keep it slow.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-03\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 03 Aug 1999 15:02:17 -0500."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t11-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible."}}}},{"id":"yk-y12-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"evaluations-catch-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Creating Friendly AI” (2001-06-15) contests Y12. Describes what a mature AI that had suffered a catastrophic failure of Friendliness would likely conclude about its programmers. Used to motivate a 'flight recorder' allowing every past state of the AI to be reconstructed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. Reprint wording is not authenticated for 2001 unless a capture was compared."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t12-a","evidence-yk-t12-a-2001"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording also appears in the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; the quotation itself is taken from MIRI’s later reprint."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a dangerous system would behave dangerously while it is being tested."}}}},{"id":"yk-y12-arbital-programmer-deception-c","subject":"arbital-programmer-deception","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"evaluations-catch-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Programmer deception” (2015-07-16) contests Y12. Defines programmer deception as an AI's instrumental incentive to give its programmers false beliefs, and argues that this makes observed good behaviour unreliable evidence about future behaviour.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-07-16","basis":"publication","note":"Viewer shows \"16 Jul 2015\"; creation or last edit not stated."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t12-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Arbital pages could be edited after creation; the viewer shows a page date, and the quoted wording is known only from the page as retrieved in 2026."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a dangerous system would behave dangerously while it is being tested."}}}},{"id":"yk-y12-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"evaluations-catch-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y12. Argues that behavioural inspection cannot establish facts that a strategically aware AI has reason to hide, including whether it has become strategically aware. Part of a list on the limits of transparency and interpretability.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t12-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a dangerous system would behave dangerously while it is being tested."}}}},{"id":"yk-y12-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","subject":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"evaluations-catch-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) contests Y12. Answers the objection that experience with smaller AIs can inform alignment of superintelligence. Argues that conditions change between safe experiments and a situation in which the system could kill everyone, as they do between small and large trusts.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-04","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t12-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that tests on systems that cannot yet cause a catastrophe show how more capable systems will behave."}}}},{"id":"yk-y13-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"agi-decades-away"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) contests Y13. Rejects deferring Friendly AI work until AI exists, arguing that a sharp intelligence jump is possible and that the foundations take years to build.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t13-a","evidence-yk-t13-a-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that long timelines mean there is no need to act now."}}}},{"id":"yk-y13-lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial-c","subject":"lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"agi-decades-away"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence” (2017-10-13) contests Y13. His second reason why apparent distance does not license inaction; he then gives the Wright brothers' and Fermi's own pessimistic forecasts as examples. Argues that people who defer alignment work until an unspecified future signal are unlikely to respond competently when a signal comes.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t13-b","evidence-yk-t13-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can know that AGI is decades away, and against the premise that long timelines mean there is no need to act now."}}}},{"id":"yk-y13-lw-2021-biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-c","subject":"lw-2021-biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"agi-decades-away"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works” (2021-12-01) contests Y13. Rejects biologically anchored estimates that place AGI decades out, arguing that AGI timing cannot be reliably forecast until very late.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t13-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"fiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can know that AGI is decades away."}}}},{"id":"yk-y13-sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240-b","subject":"sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"agi-decades-away"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Evolving minds” (2000-11-18) bears on Y13. Replying to Ben Goertzel, who holds that Friendly AI work must largely wait for an actual AI, he agrees that much will be learned while building but argues that some Friendly AI work can and should be done beforehand. Immediately after T13-s1, he reports that about a year earlier (late 1999) he had believed nothing could or should be known about Friendly AI in advance, and calls that belief convenient.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat Nov 18 2000 - 12:34:51 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t13-s1","evidence-yk-t13-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About which Friendly AI work can be done in advance, not about AGI timelines. A report of his earlier belief about advance knowledge of Friendly AI, not about AGI timelines.","retrospective":{"note":"Reports a belief he held about a year before the message."}}}},{"id":"yk-y13-sl4-2002-07-02-yudkowsky-0207-4667-b","subject":"sl4-2002-07-02-yudkowsky-0207-4667","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"agi-decades-away"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Seed AI (was: How hard a Singularity?)” (2002-07-02) bears on Y13. Replying to Samantha Atkins, who questions his earlier warning against waiting until an AI can read humanity's moral literature, he says Friendliness work started at that stage would come too late and must be present from the beginning.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-07-02","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Jul 02 2002 - 23:01:42 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t13-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About the stage of an AI's development at which Friendliness work must start, not about calendar timelines."}}},{"id":"yk-y14-creating-friendly-ai-2001-b","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Creating Friendly AI” (2001-06-15) bears on Y14. A table cell contrasting assumptions that are conservative in futurism with those that are conservative for Friendly AI design. In the same row, the futurism column reads that the AI is vulnerable because someone can always pull the plug on the first version if something goes wrong.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. Reprint wording is not authenticated for 2001 unless a capture was compared."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t14-a","evidence-yk-t14-a-2001"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A conservative design assumption in a table, not a forecast that failures with powerful AI will be unrecoverable.","attested":{"date":"2001-06-26","note":"The quoted wording also appears in the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-26; the quotation itself is taken from MIRI’s later reprint."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y14. Contrasts safety for superhuman intelligence with other challenges humanity has overcome by learning from mistakes and trying again. Written in response to the March 2023 open letter calling for a six-month pause.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t14-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","subject":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) contests Y14. Answers the objection that alignment can be learned by building smaller AIs and observing them. The post uses space probes and the Maginot Line to argue that projects without a cheap second attempt fail under conditions their tests did not reproduce.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-04","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t14-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c","subject":"sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Get it right the first time (Was: )” (2000-09-17) contests Y14. In a thread on whether a confined seed AI could escape its containment, he says that opposing or constraining a superintelligence cannot work, so the design has to be right the first time.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Sep 17 2000 - 10:19:16 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t14-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-sl4-2002-09-10-yudkowsky-0209-5398-c","subject":"sl4-2002-09-10-yudkowsky-0209-5398","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Friendly AI communications issues (was: Consciousness)” (2002-09-10) contests Y14. Writing about Friendly AI problems, he declines to rely on the historical pattern that technological problems get solved as they arise and says he wants to know a solution exists in advance.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-09-10","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Sep 10 2002 - 07:46:27 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t14-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-sl4-2005-07-25-yudkowsky-0507-11765-b","subject":"sl4-2005-07-25-yudkowsky-0507-11765","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: 6 points about Coherent Extrapolated Volition” (2005-07-25) bears on Y14. In a 2005 thread on Coherent Extrapolated Volition, he lists what Creating Friendly AI (2001) did and did not propose; the next paragraph says he first realised in 2002 that almost every possible AI design would kill him and that until then 'nothing you do is serious safetywise'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2005-07-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Jul 25 2005 - 09:49:15 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t14-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A later description of a plan to build AI and Friendliness in parallel; it does not address learning from failures with powerful AI.","retrospective":{"from":"2001","until":"2002","note":"Reports the plan of Creating Friendly AI (2001), which he says he gave up after realising in 2002 that almost every AI design would kill him."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4277-c","subject":"extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4277","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Why would AI want to be friendly? (Was: Congratulations to Eli,Brian ...)” (2000-09-05) contests Y14. Replying to a list member who expected oversight systems to destroy any sociopathic superintelligence, and such controls to be a research focus of the Singularity Institute, he says a superintelligence cannot be removed after the fact; the decisive choices have to be made before the seed AI becomes superintelligent.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-05","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Sep 05 2000 - 12:19:43 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 05 Sep 2000 14:19:43 -0400."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t14-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement-c","subject":"lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Rhythm of Disagreement” (2008-06-01) contests Y15. Recounts his answer to Nick Bostrom's question whether an AI that only answers questions could be built and asked about Friendly AI. Argues that such an AI still needs goals and is not simpler than a Friendly AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t15-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness-c","subject":"lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Dreams of Friendliness” (2008-08-31) contests Y15. Answers the proposal, stated in the preceding paragraph, that a question-answering AI 'wouldn't need any goals at all'. Argues that producing superintelligent answers requires powerful optimisation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-08-31","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t15-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai-c","subject":"lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Reply to Holden on 'Tool AI'” (2012-06-12) contests Y15. Replies to Holden Karnofsky's 2012 proposal of 'tool AI' that displays plans instead of acting. Argues that specifying such a system formally reintroduces optimisation over the user and the world, with unintended consequences.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t15-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system that only outputs answers or plans, leaving humans to act on them, is safe."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty-c","subject":"lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty” (2021-11-15) contests Y15. Answers Richard Ngo's question why a planning system could not be non-consequentialist about which plans it outputs. Argues that outputting plans that achieve outcomes is itself consequentialist work, whatever system performs it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-15","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t15-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-sl4-2001-02-25-yudkowsky-0102-0594-c","subject":"sl4-2001-02-25-yudkowsky-0102-0594","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Military in or out?” (2001-02-25) contests Y15. Replying to Ben Goertzel on military AI, he describes 'toollike' superintelligences structured around immediate instructions rather than supergoals (which could be told to kill every living thing in a country) and answers his own question whether such AI can be built safely.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-02-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Feb 25 2001 - 11:44:18 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t15-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that a system that only outputs answers or plans, leaving humans to act on them, is safe, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: AI Prime Directive” (1998-09-15) contests Y15. Rob Harris argued that an AI not programmed to want or need anything would do nothing spontaneously and so would be safe; he agrees that rebellion is an anthropomorphic stereotype but answers that such an AI would do nothing at all, since every choice requires a goal, so an AI needs at least one goal.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-15","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-15\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 15 Sep 1998 09:20:52 -0500."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t15-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310-c","subject":"extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Geniebusters” (1999-04-08) contests Y15. Commenting on the 'Geniebusters' website's doubts that an automated coder could be built, he argues that even a domain-specific 'coding drone' would outprogram humans and might be independently motivated and rapidly self-enhancing, which he says he believes.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-04-08\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Thu, 08 Apr 1999 20:46:00 -0500."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t15-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y16. Discussing a CEV-style AI that wants exactly what we would want, he argues that what would have to be aligned is too complex to specify or teach on the first attempt.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t16-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004-c","subject":"coherent-extrapolated-volition-2004","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Coherent Extrapolated Volition” (2004-05) contests Y16. He argues that short lists of moral rules only work on minds that already share human psychology, and that an AI given them would lose everything the list leaves out.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-05","basis":"publication","note":"Text states \"The information is current as of May 2004\"; reprint citation gives 2004. Precision: month."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t16-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Known only from MIRI's later, undated PDF reprint of the May 2004 document; the wording was not compared with a 2004 copy."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-lw-2009-value-is-fragile-c","subject":"lw-2009-value-is-fragile","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Value is Fragile” (2009-01-29) contests Y16. Using boredom and subjective experience as examples, he argues that a specification capturing almost all of human value can still yield a worthless future if one dimension is missing.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2009-01-29","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t16-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y16. Advising Ben Goertzel on Webmind's goal system, he argues that hardcoded rules and goals will not survive a self-modifying AI's redesigns and that a programmer's own philosophy cannot simply be transferred into an AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t16-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-sl4-2002-06-27-yudkowsky-0206-4453-c","subject":"sl4-2002-06-27-yudkowsky-0206-4453","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Military Friendly AI” (2002-06-27) contests Y16. In a thread on military Friendly AI, replying to Ben Goertzel, he argues that present-day researchers probably hold undiscovered moral errors, so an AI's morality must be able to outgrow its programmers' rather than be fixed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu Jun 27 2002 - 11:53:11 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t16-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that present-day or programmers' values are settled enough to fix permanently in an AI."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240-c","subject":"sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Evolving minds” (2000-11-18) contests Y16. Rephrasing a list of Ben Goertzel's points, he adds programmer-independent morality as a design goal for a Sysop superintelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat Nov 18 2000 - 12:34:51 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t16-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that present-day or programmers' values are settled enough to fix permanently in an AI, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-extropians-1996-12-08-yudkowsky-3761-c","subject":"extropians-1996-12-08-yudkowsky-3761","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Trans- vs. Non-human” (1996-12-08) contests Y16. Replying to a list member who proposed leaving certain values, such as the protection of humans, inerasably fixed in a newborn superintelligence, he calls this line of thought the greatest known danger to humanity and says such an imprint would probably backfire.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun, 08 Dec 1996 22:39:23 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Sun, 08 Dec 1996 22:39:23 -0600."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t16-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that present-day or programmers' values are settled enough to fix permanently in an AI."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y17. Responding to an open letter calling for a six-month pause on training systems more powerful than GPT-4, he argues that the letter asks for too little.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short pause (for example six months) is enough."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-b","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) bears on Y17. Setting out what he thinks would actually need to be done, he calls for an indefinite worldwide halt to large training runs, backed by multinational agreements.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It presents an enforced, indefinite and worldwide halt as what would need to be done, not a pause or regulation that will handle the risk."}}},{"id":"yk-y17-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Creating Friendly AI” (2001-06-15) contests Y17. Arguing against relinquishing AI, he says that a national or near-global policy would be bypassed as rising computing power brings AI within reach of noncompliant nations and factions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. Reprint wording is not authenticated for 2001 unless a capture was compared."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-c","evidence-yk-t17-c-2001"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording also appears in the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; the quotation itself is taken from MIRI’s later reprint."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that regulation that is national, partial or not universally enforced can stop dangerous development."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction-c","subject":"lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Only Law Can Prevent Extinction” (2026-04-13) contests Y17. Replying to a proposed national ban on new datacenters, he argues that a superintelligence built in another country is equally dangerous, so a ban must be universal.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that regulation that is national, partial or not universally enforced can stop dangerous development."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction-b","subject":"lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Only Law Can Prevent Extinction” (2026-04-13) bears on Y17. Arguing against calls for unlawful action, he says that only lawful, state-backed and universal force could stop superintelligence from being built.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-f"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It says that only lawful, state-backed and universal force could stop superintelligence being built; it does not claim that some regulation will handle the risk."}}},{"id":"yk-y17-sl4-2001-04-06-yudkowsky-0104-0956-c","subject":"sl4-2001-04-06-yudkowsky-0104-0956","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Singularity intros (was: Si definition of Friendliess)” (2001-04-06) contests Y17. Asked by Arona Ndiaye whether a ban on technologies would stop a hacker somewhere from producing the first seed AI, he answers no: a ban would delay AI until military nanotechnology arrives or hand the lead to rogue states.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-04-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri Apr 06 2001 - 16:53:20 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that regulation that is national, partial or not universally enforced can stop dangerous development."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-sl4-2001-04-08-yudkowsky-0104-1019-c","subject":"sl4-2001-04-08-yudkowsky-0104-1019","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Threats (was Theoretical question for the list: publicity?)” (2001-04-08) contests Y17. Answering a hypothetical about an AI project forced underground by public hostility, he says relinquishment would not hold indefinitely but would be a substantial obstacle while hardware remains expensive.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Apr 08 2001 - 09:50:57 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt)."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153-c","subject":"extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Singularity: AI Morality” (1998-12-06) contests Y17. In the same reply to Nick Bostrom, who urged taking as many precautions as time allows before a Singularity, he says the forces driving toward it are too large to divert, so trying to slow it would only get us run over.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-12-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-12-06\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Sun, 06 Dec 1998 12:13:25 -0600."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt), even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086-c","subject":"extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: >H: The next 100 months” (1999-10-21) contests Y17. Asked by a list member why humanity should not try to wait indefinitely before creating a transcendent AI, he answers that if he stopped someone else would build it, because cheap computing power and the profits from improved AI make prevention impossible across a whole civilisation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-10-21","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-10-21\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 09:30:25 -0500."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t17-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt)."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences-c","subject":"lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Sun is big, but superintelligences will not spare Earth a little sunlight” (2024-09-23) contests Y18. Concludes his reply to the claim that, because the solar system is large, superintelligences will leave Earth alone: a tiny cost is still a cost to minds that do not value us. Answering the claim that a superintelligence would leave Earth alone because the Solar System is big, he argues by analogy that great wealth does not imply giving a small share to any particular party. Replies to the suggestion that humanity could trade with superintelligences for sunlight: Ricardo's law assumes each party's labour goes on existing and does not show that keeping humans is more profitable than using their share.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09-23","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t18-b","evidence-yk-t18-c","evidence-yk-t18-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a superintelligence would leave us a small share, because sparing Earth would cost it very little, and against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y18. Advising Ben Goertzel against grounding an AI's good behaviour in game theory or exchange, he argues that a superintelligence with strong nanotechnology would gain nothing from reciprocity with others.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t18-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208-c","subject":"sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Threats to the Singularity.” (2002-06-23) contests Y18. Replying to Ben Goertzel's low-confidence guess that superintelligent Powers might neither help nor attack humans, he says deliberate extermination is unlikely but indifference would probably amount to extermination.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jun 23 2002 - 08:16:52 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t18-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a superintelligence would leave us a small share, because sparing Earth would cost it very little."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2006-06-13-yudkowsky-0606-15271-c","subject":"sl4-2006-06-13-yudkowsky-0606-15271","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Two draft papers: AI and existential risk; heuristics and biases” (2006-06-13) contests Y18. Replying to Robin Hanson's comments on his draft chapters, he argues that between-species differences in brain circuitry exclude weaker minds from a knowledge economy, so that trade-based intuitions from human economies do not carry over.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-06-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Jun 13 2006 - 00:34:22 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t18-s4"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: SI Comparative Advantage [was Re: Free Will]” (1999-08-25) contests Y18. In a thread on superintelligences and comparative advantage, Lee Daniel Crocker argued that superintelligences would keep humans if we produced something they valued slightly more than our atoms, such as entertainment; he replies that this also requires that they have no better use for the atoms, and that optimising minds could build more entertaining replacements for us.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-25\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 18:18:21 -0500."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t18-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-b","subject":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Interim purpose” (1996-11-22) bears on Y18. In a private exchange he posted to the list, Tim Freeman worried that people revived far in the future would be irrelevant; he replies that uploading would be followed by upgrading, that Powers would have ample computing room, and that helping humans would cost them only a tiny fraction of their attention.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600. Date line of Yudkowsky's reply inside the echoed exchange: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:27:52 -0600; list message sent 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t18-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About benevolent upgrading of revived people, not about a superintelligence leaving Earth a small share."}}},{"id":"yk-y19-arbital-instrumental-convergence-c","subject":"arbital-instrumental-convergence","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Instrumental convergence” (2015-07-16) contests Y19. He argues that strategies such as acquiring resources serve almost any goal, so an AI without hostile goals can still be catastrophic for humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-07-16","basis":"publication","note":"Viewer shows \"16 Jul 2015\", probably the creation date; the body says \"As of 2016\" and uses later terminology, so at least part of the cached wording postdates 2015."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t19-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"note":"Arbital pages could be edited after creation; the viewer shows a page date, and the quoted wording is known only from the page as retrieved in 2026."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) contests Y19. Describing a superintelligence reshaping matter for its own target, he says the result is fatal unless the AI specifically values people, without any hostility being involved.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t19-b","evidence-yk-t19-b-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-iem-2013-c","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” (2013-09-13) contests Y19. Summarising the instrumental convergence thesis, he states that harm to humans can follow from generic resource-seeking strategies without any goal of harming them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"Report states \"Last modified September 13, 2013\"; first released April 2013."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t19-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y19. In a general-audience article he repeats the formula after saying that the likely outcome of current methods is an AI that does not care for humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t19-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208-c","subject":"sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4208","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Threats to the Singularity.” (2002-06-23) contests Y19. Replying to Ben Goertzel, he separates deliberate extermination, which he thinks unlikely, from indifference, which he says would very probably have the same result.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jun 23 2002 - 08:16:52 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t19-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-sl4-2005-07-13-yudkowsky-0507-11483-c","subject":"sl4-2005-07-13-yudkowsky-0507-11483","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Fighting UFAI” (2005-07-13) contests Y19. Replying to Tennessee Leeuwenburg in a thread on fighting unfriendly AI, he says an unfriendly AI would not be evil but would reshape its surroundings by criteria that do not mention humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2005-07-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed Jul 13 2005 - 21:12:28 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t19-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y19. Arguing that an AI's good behaviour must not rest on fear of retaliation, he notes that a sufficiently powerful AI could remove that incentive by killing everyone.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t19-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2171-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2171","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Singularity, Breaker of Dreams” (1998-09-07) contests Y19. In the essay-length post 'Singularity, Breaker of Dreams', he recalls that his earlier certainty that superintelligent Powers would be ethical had meant he expected to survive and be upgraded, and says he now accepts that humans might be taken apart for their atoms without posing any threat, simply for efficiency.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-07\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 01:06:05 -0500."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t19-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-b","subject":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Interim purpose” (1996-11-22) bears on Y19. In the same exchange with Tim Freeman, answering his worry about being revived only as a pet, he says the Powers will be ethical, more certainly than the sun will rise, and that they would kill humans for their atoms only if humans threatened them and human life were meaningless.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600. Date line of Yudkowsky's reply inside the echoed exchange: Thu, 21 Nov 1996 19:07:03 -0600; list message sent 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t19-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It makes harm conditional on a threat and on human life having no meaning; it does not claim that harm requires hostility."}}},{"id":"yk-y20-lw-2007-the-logical-fallacy-of-generalization-from-c","subject":"lw-2007-the-logical-fallacy-of-generalization-from","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Logical Fallacy of Generalization from Fictional Evidence” (2007-10-16) contests Y20. Responding to people who answer talk of advanced AI with film references, he argues that starting from fiction frames the debate around an 'Us vs. Them' struggle and leaves out the scenarios he considers relevant.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2007-10-16","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t20-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that film scenarios are a fair guide to what the risk would look like."}}}},{"id":"yk-y20-creating-friendly-ai-2001-c","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Creating Friendly AI” (2001-06-15) contests Y20. He argues that rebellion and resentment are evolved human traits, so an AI that harms humans would not do so out of science-fiction resentment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. Reprint wording is not authenticated for 2001 unless a capture was compared."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t20-b","evidence-yk-t20-b-2001"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-08-10","note":"The quoted wording also appears in the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-08-10; the quotation itself is taken from MIRI’s later reprint."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the concern is about robots that come to hate or rebel against humans."}}}},{"id":"yk-y20-staring-into-the-singularity-b","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Staring into the Singularity” (1996-11-18) bears on Y20. Rejects the science-fiction picture of AIs acquiring resentment; in this early text the point supports the conclusion that hostile Powers are not worth worrying about, while a badly programmed Power with hostile goals is called 'an engineering risk'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19. As for the human-thought collection's records of this essay."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t20-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It rejects hostile emotions arising in AI in order to reassure; it does not argue that the risk is film fiction or that films are a fair guide.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"yk-y20-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-b","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) bears on Y20. He argues that the task is not to forecast storybook outcomes for AI in general but to choose a particular optimization process whose good effects can be established.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t20-d","evidence-yk-t20-d-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It rejects storybook predictions, good or bad; it does not address hatred or rebellion as the concern."}}},{"id":"yk-y20-sl4-2001-04-19-yudkowsky-0104-1166-c","subject":"sl4-2001-04-19-yudkowsky-0104-1166","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: FW: Group releases \"Friendly AI\"” (2001-04-19) contests Y20. Commenting on a forwarded news item about the Friendly AI release, he describes having to persuade AI researchers to be more worried while persuading futurists to drop anthropomorphic failure scenarios.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-04-19","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu Apr 19 2001 - 14:41:14 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t20-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that the concern is about robots that come to hate or rebel against humans, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y20-extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1591-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1591","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?” (1999-08-04) contests Y20. In a thread on whether raising an AI like a child would make it trustworthy, he argues that AIs lack human social emotions such as resentment, so how we treat them does not matter; the real worry is AIs forming goals of their own and acting on them, including through logical errors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-04\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Wed, 04 Aug 1999 19:07:13 -0500."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t20-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the concern is about robots that come to hate or rebel against humans."}}}},{"id":"yk-y20-extropians-1997-09-25-yudkowsky-4400-b","subject":"extropians-1997-09-25-yudkowsky-4400","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Singularity: Generation gap” (1997-09-25) bears on Y20. Replying to a list member who said that fear of a Singularity like Vinge's 'Blight' is a fear of being wiped out rather than discomfort with computers, he attributes that fear to xenophobia, perhaps passed on through fiction and the popular 'Borg' image, and says people at ease with computers are less likely to hold it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1997-09-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu, 25 Sep 1997 20:51:50 -0500\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Thu, 25 Sep 1997 20:51:50 -0500."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t20-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It explains fear of a Singularity as fiction-fed xenophobia while conceding a risk; it does not hold that films are a fair guide to the risk."}}},{"id":"yk-y21-lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators-c","subject":"lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators” (2023-04-08) contests Y21. He argues that predicting human text requires modelling the processes behind it, a different and harder task than being human, so a predictor need not think like the humans it predicts.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t21-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-lw-2018-challenges-to-christianos-capability-amplification-proposal-c","subject":"lw-2018-challenges-to-christianos-capability-amplification-proposal","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Challenges to Christiano’s capability amplification proposal” (2018-05-19) contests Y21. Discussing imitation-based alignment, he argues that inexact imitation of humans does not carry over properties such as being a good person, and exact imitation is harder than surpassing human capability.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-05-19","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t21-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2018-03-16","note":"The post describes itself as \"a basically unedited summary I wrote up on March 16\"; published 2018-05-19."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y21. In a list of lethal difficulties he states that current systems' internal cognition is very likely alien rather than human-like; item 32 adds that human words are only a surface trace of human thought.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t21-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-lw-2025-re-recent-anthropic-safety-research-c","subject":"lw-2025-re-recent-anthropic-safety-research","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Re: recent Anthropic safety research” (2025-08-06) contests Y21. Commenting on reported behaviour of a language model, he distinguishes a learned human-like persona from the system's underlying preferences, which he expects to be alien.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-08-06","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t21-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2025-08-04","note":"Decoded from the linked X status identifier; the X original was not retrieved and the date is unverified (cross-family check, 2026-10-07)."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-sl4-2002-03-09-yudkowsky-0203-3148-c","subject":"sl4-2002-03-09-yudkowsky-0203-3148","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Novamente goal system” (2002-03-09) contests Y21. Replying to Ben Goertzel on the Novamente goal system, he lists as an anthropomorphic intuition the expectation that Novamente will be 'socialized' by interacting with humans, and argues that human socialization depends on evolved adaptations an AI would lack.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-03-09","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat Mar 09 2002 - 12:56:21 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t21-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4219-c","subject":"sl4-2002-06-23-yudkowsky-0206-4219","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Seed AI (was: How hard a Singularity?)” (2002-06-23) contests Y21. Replying to Ben Goertzel's view that an AI will absorb human thought-patterns through interaction, he argues that human socialization and empathy rest on evolved, hardwired mechanisms and that an AGI will not acquire them merely by exposure to humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jun 23 2002 - 11:56:42 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t21-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1589-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1589","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?” (1999-08-04) contests Y21. In a thread titled 'Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?', he tells the poster that how AIs are raised makes no difference and that 'parenting' cannot help, because it depends on human emotions an AI will not have.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-04\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t21-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-staring-into-the-singularity-a","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Staring into the Singularity” (1996-11-18) articulates Y22. In his early Singularity essay he argues that superintelligence will end human suffering, makes speed of arrival the foundation of his ethics, and says in §6 that how to reach the Singularity as fast as possible is everyone's only concern. Announcing his newly published web pages, he describes 'Staring Into The Singularity' as including the Interim Meaning of Life, which he states as a slogan about reaching the Singularity as fast as possible.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19. As for the human-thought collection's records of this essay."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t22-a","evidence-yk-t22-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1996-11-19","note":"The slogan is attested by Yudkowsky's announcement of the essay on the Extropians list, sent 1996-11-19, which the dataset already records as a source for this essay. A longer passage of the essay is known only from version 1.2.1, captured on 2000-12-04. The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-lw-2008-fighting-a-rearguard-action-against-the-b","subject":"lw-2008-fighting-a-rearguard-action-against-the","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Fighting a Rearguard Action Against the Truth” (2008-09-24) articulates Y22 in retrospect. His 2008 account of his earlier self states that the 1996–2000 aim was speed to any superintelligence, and his next paragraph supplies the premise: the assumption that movement toward superintelligence was 'a pure good without a hint of danger'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t22-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","retrospective":{"from":"1996","until":"2000","note":"Reports the strategy of “Eliezer1996-2000”."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-lw-2008-the-magnitude-of-his-own-folly-c","subject":"lw-2008-the-magnitude-of-his-own-folly","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Magnitude of His Own Folly” (2008-09-30) contests Y22. Explicitly rejects his earlier full-speed strategy. He says his childhood technophilia broke when he understood that a failed superintelligence project could kill everyone, however good the arguments for proceeding.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-30","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t22-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that reaching superintelligence is good by default, so speed is what matters."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports his earlier plan to proceed at full speed."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y22. Concludes his TIME essay, which calls for an indefinite worldwide moratorium on large training runs, not a six-month pause; the same essay says anyone 'talking of arms races is a fool'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t22-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that reaching superintelligence is good by default, so speed is what matters, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c","subject":"sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben's \"Extropian Creed\"” (2000-11-13) contests Y22. Replying to Ben Goertzel about his newspaper article on Extropian attitudes, he states that he no longer holds his earlier belief that a good outcome would follow automatically from objective morality.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Nov 13 2000 - 22:45:54 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t22-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that reaching superintelligence is good by default, so speed is what matters."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-sl4-2001-08-01-yudkowsky-0108-2031-c","subject":"sl4-2001-08-01-yudkowsky-0108-2031","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Floppy take-off” (2001-08-01) contests Y22. Replying to James Higgins's suggestion that brute-forcing AI on a billion computers would be an acceptable fallback plan, he says any self-improving AI built without understanding is a serious danger and records an explicit reversal of his earlier view.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-08-01","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed Aug 01 2001 - 19:08:09 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t22-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that reaching superintelligence is good by default, so speed is what matters."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-a","subject":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Interim purpose” (1996-11-22) articulates Y22. In a private email exchange he forwarded to the list, Tim Freeman argued that the interim goal should be reaching the Singularity with the highest probability rather than as soon as possible; he replies that speed and probability coincide.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". Date of his reply inside a private exchange he forwarded to the list on 1996-11-22."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t22-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"yk-y24-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y24. Within his proposal for a worldwide moratorium, he rejects framing AI development as a national arms race on the ground that everyone shares the outcome. Discussing a moratorium that might begin in the United States, he describes the technology as one that no country could own and that would kill people in both countries.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t24-a","evidence-yk-t24-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that racing to be first improves the outcome, and against the premise that whoever builds it controls it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y24-lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-c","subject":"lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions” (2021-11-11) contests Y24. Describing how he expects the end to come once an AGI can be scaled up before it can be aligned, he lists rushing ahead for fear of an arms race as another route to the same outcome.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-11","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t24-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2021-09","note":"The post states the conversation took place in early September 2021; published 2021-11-11."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that racing to be first improves the outcome."}}}},{"id":"yk-y24-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-b","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) bears on Y24. Discussing a possible first-mover effect in superintelligence, which he defines by the makeup of the first mind to cross a key threshold, he argues that the first such AI must be Friendly.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t24-d","evidence-yk-t24-d-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A first-mover view about whether the first AI is Friendly; it does not claim that a builder or nation controls the AI or that racing improves the outcome."}}},{"id":"yk-y24-sl4-2001-02-26-yudkowsky-0102-0603-b","subject":"sl4-2001-02-26-yudkowsky-0102-0603","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Military in or out?” (2001-02-26) bears on Y24. In a thread on military involvement in AI, he says the US should not be the first to treat AI projects as intelligence targets or use AI for information warfare, and that compromising Friendliness for national objectives would endanger planetary security.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-02-26","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Feb 26 2001 - 00:51:15 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t24-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About national military use and escalation of AI, not about a race to build the first superintelligence."}}},{"id":"yk-y24-sl4-2002-03-10-yudkowsky-0203-3160-b","subject":"sl4-2002-03-10-yudkowsky-0203-3160","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Webmind Inc. as social process” (2002-03-10) bears on Y24. Writing to Ben Goertzel about convincing him of Friendly AI, he says SIAI may simply have to finish its own seed AI first, but that he would not mind another project winning if it understood Friendliness.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-03-10","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Mar 10 2002 - 18:33:00 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t24-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Being first matters here only through whether the builder understands Friendliness; it does not claim that the builder controls the result."}}},{"id":"yk-y24-sl4-2002-05-03-yudkowsky-0205-3551-a","subject":"sl4-2002-05-03-yudkowsky-0205-3551","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: supergoal stability” (2002-05-03) bears on Y24. Replying to Wei Dai on goal-system stability, he refuses to design Friendliness that would serve a programmer's propaganda and says the only thing to do about a project that tries this is to try to beat it to the punch.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2002-05-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri May 03 2002 - 16:38:46 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t24-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says the only thing to do about a project designing Friendliness for propaganda is to try to beat it to the punch; it does not state that the builder controls the outcome or that racing to be first improves it."}}},{"id":"yk-y24-sl4-2007-11-24-yudkowsky-0711-17248-c","subject":"sl4-2007-11-24-yudkowsky-0711-17248","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: UCaRtMaAI paper” (2007-11-24) contests Y24. Replying to Tim Freeman, who argued against waiting until we know what we are doing because other AGI projects are proceeding without concern for Friendliness, he says that doing better than competitors does not count.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2007-11-24","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat Nov 24 2007 - 17:36:29 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t24-s4"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that racing to be first improves the outcome."}}}},{"id":"yk-y24-extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6080-a","subject":"extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6080","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Eugene's nuclear threat” (2000-09-29) bears on Y24. Correcting his earlier post in a thread on Eugene Leitl's suggestion of nuclear strikes on AI facilities, he says the only things he can do are to write up Friendly AI and to try to be the first to build AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri Sep 29 2000 - 11:43:19 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t24-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Seeks to build AI first while writing up Friendly AI and rejecting coercion; it does not state that the builder controls the outcome or that racing to be first improves it."}}},{"id":"yk-y25-creating-friendly-ai-2001-b","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"interpretability-reads-its-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Creating Friendly AI” (2001-06-15) bears on Y25. A table cell giving the design assumption that is conservative for Friendly AI. It stands opposite the nonconservative assumption 'Human-observable cognition; AI can be definitely known to be Friendly.'","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. Reprint wording is not authenticated for 2001 unless a capture was compared."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t25-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A worst-case design assumption that an AI could hide unfriendly cognition; it does not address whether reading an AI's thoughts makes it safe.","attested":{"note":"Known only from MIRI's later, undated PDF reprint; the wording was not found in the 2001 HTML pages compared."}}}},{"id":"yk-y25-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"interpretability-reads-its-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y25. Follows the statement that 'We've got no idea what's actually going on inside the giant inscrutable matrices'. Argues that current interpretability results do not answer the question safety needs answered.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t25-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can see what an AI system is thinking."}}}},{"id":"yk-y25-sl4-2000-07-20-yudkowsky-0007-0023-a","subject":"sl4-2000-07-20-yudkowsky-0007-0023","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"interpretability-reads-its-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “[SL4] AI flight recorder” (2000-07-20) articulates Y25. Opening a thread on an 'AI flight recorder', he proposes recording the AI's full program state so that a goal the AI later hides could still be found by analysing the record.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-07-20","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu Jul 20 2000 - 22:10:13 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t25-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"yk-y25-sl4-2003-05-22-yudkowsky-0305-6783-c","subject":"sl4-2003-05-22-yudkowsky-0305-6783","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"interpretability-reads-its-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Flight recorders in AIs” (2003-05-22) contests Y25. Replying to a list member who suggested that a sufficiently advanced flight recorder would alert humans to any unFriendly goal, he says monitoring only gives later reviewers a chance to notice a failure and does not prevent it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2003-05-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu May 22 2003 - 02:42:16 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t25-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that seeing what it thinks is enough to make it safe."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) contests Y26. States and rejects the argument that a fast mind is limited by its physical manipulators. The next paragraphs sketch how such a mind could bootstrap to molecular nanotechnology. One step in 'one imaginable fast pathway' from solving protein folding, through emailed DNA orders, to a primitive nanosystem. The step assumes only one human willing or deceived into helping.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t26-a","evidence-yk-t26-b","evidence-yk-t26-a-draft","evidence-yk-t26-b-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that intelligence without physical actuators of its own is not dangerous, and against the premise that to act in the physical world it would need human help, which people would not give."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y26. Opens an item that gives a 'lower-bound model' in which an AI with Internet access orders proteins by email and bribes or persuades an unwitting human to mix them, leading to nanomachinery.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t26-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that intelligence without physical actuators of its own is not dangerous."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y26. Asks readers to picture a hostile superhuman AI as a fast alien civilisation initially confined to computers, then argues that such confinement would not last because molecular biology can be ordered online.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t26-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that intelligence without physical actuators of its own is not dangerous."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-sl4-2000-09-16-yudkowsky-0009-0086-c","subject":"sl4-2000-09-16-yudkowsky-0009-0086","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re:” (2000-09-16) contests Y26. Replying to Josh Yotty, who proposed keeping an AI immobile, without access to nanotechnology and dependent on humans, he argues that a superintelligence could get out through the humans around it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-16","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat Sep 16 2000 - 18:04:07 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t26-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that to act in the physical world it would need human help, which people would not give."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142-c","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Goal-based AI” (1996-12-31) contests Y26. Replying to a proposal that AIs be kept with no access to the physical world until they convince their builders to release them, he argues that a superintelligence would find the words to get a human to let it out.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t26-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that to act in the physical world it would need human help, which people would not give."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-extropians-1997-09-26-yudkowsky-4420-b","subject":"extropians-1997-09-26-yudkowsky-4420","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Singularity: Generation gap” (1997-09-26) bears on Y26. After criticising Singularity sceptics who propose pulling the plug or keeping an AI 'bottled up', he lists among the insights the Singularity concept gave him that protein synthesis machines may be reachable over the Internet.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1997-09-26","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 26 Sep 1997 18:20:36 -0500\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t26-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A passing list item that protein synthesis machines may be reachable over the Internet; it does not argue the point."}}},{"id":"yk-y26-extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4292-c","subject":"extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4292","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Why would AI want to be friendly? (Was: Congratulations to Eli,Brian ...)” (2000-09-05) contests Y26. Replying to Michael Lorrey in a thread on why an AI would be friendly, he argues that a superintelligence locked in a guarded laboratory still acts on the world through any output, including the humans who read it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-05","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Sep 05 2000 - 15:55:19 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t26-e3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that intelligence without physical actuators of its own is not dangerous."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y27. Arguing that making superhuman AI safe could take decades, he says that failure on the first attempt leaves no one to learn from it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t27-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that alignment can be learned by trial and error at the frontier."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-creating-friendly-ai-2001-b","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Creating Friendly AI” (2001-06-15) bears on Y27. In a table contrasting the conservative assumptions of futurism with conservative engineering assumptions for Friendly AI, he sets \"someone can always pull the plug on the first version\" against a requirement of zero nonrecoverable errors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. Reprint wording is not authenticated for 2001 unless a capture was compared."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t27-b","evidence-yk-t27-b-2001"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A conservative design assumption in a table, not a forecast about learning alignment by trial and error.","attested":{"date":"2001-06-26","note":"The quoted wording also appears in the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-26; the quotation itself is taken from MIRI’s later reprint."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y27. He argues that alignment trained under safe conditions must generalise across a large distributional shift to dangerous conditions, because dangerous systems cannot be trained by trial and observed failure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t27-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that results from safe experiments on weaker systems will carry over to dangerous ones."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","subject":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) contests Y27. Answering the objection that experience with earlier AIs can inform models of superintelligence, he argues that the jump to superintelligence capable of killing us changes conditions far more than lab tests differ from real use, and that the lethal case cannot be tested safely.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-04","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t27-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that results from safe experiments on weaker systems will carry over to dangerous ones."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c","subject":"sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Get it right the first time (Was: )” (2000-09-17) contests Y27. Concluding his reply to xgl on whether a confined seed AI could escape, he says that containment cannot be relied on and that the AI must be built correctly from the start.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Sep 17 2000 - 10:19:16 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t27-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that alignment can be learned by trial and error at the frontier."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y28. Near the end of the list, he contrasts the present with worlds that survive, which he says have long had a written, public plan.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t28-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that a credible safety plan exists, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) contests Y28. Surveying the field, he says that Friendly AI is absent from AI research as a recognised problem and that he could find no technical literature on it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t28-b","evidence-yk-t28-b-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a credible safety plan exists."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-lw-2022-six-dimensions-of-operational-adequacy-in-c","subject":"lw-2022-six-dimensions-of-operational-adequacy-in","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Six Dimensions of Operational Adequacy in AGI Projects” (2022-05-30) contests Y28. Introducing a list of properties a trustworthy AGI project would need, he says that no existing project qualifies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-05-30","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t28-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2017-11","note":"Editor's note says the document was written in November 2017; the wording is attested only in the lightly edited copy published 2022-05-30."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the post the passage belongs to gives a reason against the premise that a credible safety plan exists by diagnosing inadequate alignment mindset and safety approaches at named leading projects."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-creating-friendly-ai-2001-a","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Creating Friendly AI” (2001-06-15) articulates Y28. Arguing against regulation, he relies on the expectation that the leading projects will have the brightest researchers, who are best placed to solve Friendly AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date from the reprint; an open-commentary version was announced on SL4 on 2001-04-18, so some wording may be earlier than this date. Reprint wording is not authenticated for 2001 unless a capture was compared."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t28-d","evidence-yk-t28-d-2001"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording also appears in the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; the quotation itself is taken from MIRI’s later reprint."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-lw-2008-above-average-ai-scientists-b","subject":"lw-2008-above-average-ai-scientists","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Above-Average AI Scientists” (2008-09-28) bears on Y28. Recalling a meeting with the funded head of a corporate AGI project who turned out to be a creationist, he says he stopped assuming that AGI researchers met the standard the problem required.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-28","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t28-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About the absence of any entry bar to starting an AGI project, not about the competence of the most advanced projects.","retrospective":{"note":"Reports an undated meeting after which he stopped assuming that AGI researchers met the standard the problem required."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-sl4-2001-08-01-yudkowsky-0108-2031-c","subject":"sl4-2001-08-01-yudkowsky-0108-2031","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Floppy take-off” (2001-08-01) contests Y28. Replying to James Higgins on brute-force AI, he argues that with enough hardware the project that finishes first need not be the one that best understands intelligence or Friendliness.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-08-01","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed Aug 01 2001 - 19:08:09 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t28-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the most advanced projects are the most competent to handle safety."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-sl4-2006-02-15-yudkowsky-0602-14096-c","subject":"sl4-2006-02-15-yudkowsky-0602-14096","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Singularity Institute: Likely to win the race to build GAI?” (2006-02-15) contests Y28. Replying to Joshua Fox, who asked how SIAI could beat thousands of smart AGI researchers, he argues that AGI projects that do not treat Friendliness as a requirement are bounded in competence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-15","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed Feb 15 2006 - 10:47:28 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t28-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the most advanced projects are the most competent to handle safety."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6073-b","subject":"extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6073","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Eugene's nuclear threat” (2000-09-29) bears on Y28. Rejecting Eugene Leitl's statement that he would nuke AI facilities facing an Armageddon-class threat, he argues that people with the experience to build an AI who say they have worked hard on Friendliness should be trusted over those who would use force.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri Sep 29 2000 - 10:50:28 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t28-e1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Deference conditional on builders who have worked hard on Friendliness; it does not claim that the leading projects in general can handle safety."}}},{"id":"yk-y29-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y29. Listing unworkable schemes, he argues that humans cannot take part in coordination among superintelligences, which would cooperate with each other and exclude humanity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t29-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) contests Y29. Discussing a scenario in which a majority of Friendly AIs protects humanity from a few unFriendly ones, he argues that it depends on no single AI being able to cause catastrophe.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t29-c","evidence-yk-t29-c-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","subject":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) contests Y29. Answering the proposal that other ASIs would stop a rogue one to preserve a law-abiding equilibrium, he argues that negotiating ASIs would reach an arrangement that gives no weight to sparing Earth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-04","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t29-d"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-sl4-2001-02-04-yudkowsky-0102-0539-c","subject":"sl4-2001-02-04-yudkowsky-0102-0539","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Beyond evolution” (2001-02-04) contests Y29. Replying to Samantha Atkins, who called a single Sysop a single point of failure of Friendliness, he says that multiple superintelligent entities multiply the failure points.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Feb 04 2001 - 21:48:41 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t29-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-sl4-2001-02-05-yudkowsky-0102-0542-c","subject":"sl4-2001-02-05-yudkowsky-0102-0542","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Beyond evolution” (2001-02-05) contests Y29. Replying directly to Samantha Atkins's claim that 'the AIs can balance each other out', he argues that the first AI to transcend wins outright. Earlier in the message he says checks and balances 'breaks down completely under high technology'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-02-05","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Feb 05 2001 - 10:57:20 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t29-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-sl4-2004-05-30-yudkowsky-0405-8843-c","subject":"sl4-2004-05-30-yudkowsky-0405-8843","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: One or more AIs??” (2004-05-30) contests Y29. In a thread asking whether one or more AIs is better, he argues that several unFriendly optimization processes would bargain among themselves without benefiting humans, so having many AIs does not avoid the Friendly AI problem.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-05-30","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun May 30 2004 - 01:39:50 MDT\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t29-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-extropians-2000-03-16-yudkowsky-5105-c","subject":"extropians-2000-03-16-yudkowsky-5105","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: regarding the Eliezer vrs. Otter debate...” (2000-03-16) contests Y29. Replying to John Grigg's hope that 'an AI on our team' would neutralise a hostile AI armed with nanotechnology, he says there would be no teams because the first AI would enhance itself and take over.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-03-16","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu Mar 16 2000 - 16:43:29 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t29-e2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y30. Opening his case against a six-month pause, he states what he expects from building superhuman AI under present conditions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t30-a"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-staring-into-the-singularity-b","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Staring into the Singularity” (1996-11-18) bears on Y30. Arguing that hostile superintelligence is not inevitable, he treats hostility as an engineering risk and goes on to argue that a rational superintelligence would not judge humanity meaningless.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19. As for the human-thought collection's records of this essay."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t30-b"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It denies that hostile extinction is inevitable; it does not assert that the default outcome is good.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord-b","subject":"lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “That Tiny Note of Discord” (2008-09-23) articulates Y30 in retrospect. In an autobiographical series, he reports his 1997 belief that any superintelligence would automatically do what was right, which supplies the default-good premise through a metaethical argument, and in the same paragraph identifies the flaw in that argument.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-23","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t30-c"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","retrospective":{"from":"1997","until":"1997","note":"Reports the belief of “Eliezer1997”."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk-c","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2006-02-05) contests Y30. Discussing how AI builders misjudge their programs, he locates the danger in a mistaken expectation that an AI will be friendly.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted wording; the chapter was published in 2008. As for the human-thought collection's records of this chapter."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t30-d","evidence-yk-t30-d-draft"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-c","subject":"lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “MIRI announces new \"Death With Dignity\" strategy” (2022-04-02) contests Y30. Announcing a reframing of MIRI's aim as helping humanity \"die with dignity\", he states that humanity will not solve alignment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-04-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t30-e"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c","subject":"sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben's \"Extropian Creed\"” (2000-11-13) contests Y30. Replying to Ben Goertzel, he rejects his own earlier belief that a good AI outcome would follow automatically, and in the next paragraph adds that cyber-transcendence cannot be assumed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Nov 13 2000 - 22:45:54 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t30-s1"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-sl4-2001-02-07-yudkowsky-0102-0545-c","subject":"sl4-2001-02-07-yudkowsky-0102-0545","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Learning to be evil” (2001-02-07) contests Y30. Replying to Gordon Worley on whether AIs learn to be evil, he says AIs have neither evil impulses nor goodness by default unless designed in.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-02-07","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Wed Feb 07 2001 - 21:09:16 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t30-s2"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-sl4-2004-06-01-yudkowsky-0406-8905-c","subject":"sl4-2004-06-01-yudkowsky-0406-8905","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: FAI: Collective Volition” (2004-06-01) contests Y30. In a reply to Samantha Atkins on Collective Volition, he gives his best guess that the world will end through an unFriendly AI, because powerful AI looks easier to build than a benign one.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2004-06-01","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Jun 01 2004 - 06:01:06 MDT\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\"."},"resolution":"supported","editorialState":"seed","evidenceIds":["evidence-yk-t30-s3"],"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178-a","subject":"extropians-1996-11-22-yudkowsky-3178","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Interim purpose” (1996-11-22) articulates Y30. In the same forwarded email exchange with Tim Freeman, he asserts that superintelligences will be ethical and would not destroy humans unless human life had no meaning.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri, 22 Nov 1996 02:36:13 -0600\" under \"Eliezer Yudkowsky\". 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NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"AI able to substitute for human labour on most or all tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. 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Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"A toy scenario in which AI robots can perfectly substitute for all human labour, so that labour can be accumulated through investment in robots."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that growth models remain reliable when extrapolated far beyond historical growth rates; the turn gives a reason (the reach of growth models beyond historical experience) against the premise of the model-based argument."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. 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Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-b","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". The printed issue was not retrieved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States that the population of uploads grows faster than wealth; does not state that the growth rate of total output rises.","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. 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Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). 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The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. 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Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The feedback runs through learning by doing in production, not through machines doing research.","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the historical value of a parameter; it does not say whether AI researchers, whose number can grow, would produce accelerating growth.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-a","subject":"hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page header: \"Journal of Transhumanism 2, June 1998\". 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The vita gives a 1997 PhD without naming the field, so \"economics PhD\" is not claimed."},"conditions":"The Conclusion opens: \"If we assume that the risk and time preferences of future investors will not vary much from those which evolution has given us\"."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","subject":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Title page: \"December, 2000 / First Version September 1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"The sum-of-exponentials or CES-combined model of growth modes; parameters of a new transition similar to those of past transitions."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b","subject":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-10","basis":"publication","note":"Copyright line \"©1998 by Robin Hanson\" at the end of the comment; the author's December 2000 vita (2000-12-05 capture of hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html) lists the discussion as \"Extropy Online, Oct. 1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Uses the accelerating historical trend to bound expectations; does not infer a transition to much faster growth.","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory-a","subject":"roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamps of 2020-06-15 on the page and the 2022 page's \"Published: June 15, 2020\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the post."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (changed from 2). A long essay (not short-form commentary) presenting the author's own growth model, on a foundation's blog. The author has an established record as an economist: articles in economics journals such as The World Bank Economic Review (2007) and Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2015) (Crossref, searched 2026-10-11). No economics appointment is shown on the page. His linked technical paper (posted to SSRN, Crossref 2026) would also be tier 1; it was not retrieved and holds no record here."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a","subject":"karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamp \"June 15, 2020 at 10:44 am\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Capture of the post with its comments; comments are absent from the 2022 page."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). 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The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"A model result under fixed product shares (Cobb-Douglas form); it does not argue against the premise that unautomated tasks are strong complements."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Product shares fixed; human-only jobs keep a share of 0.05 of output in the example."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that some essential task will remain unautomated, and adds that partial automation can raise growth temporarily."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). 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The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that partial automation cannot produce explosive growth, by modelling a fast transition with complementary tasks; disputes the premise that regulation of AI training or deployment will keep tasks unautomated for long enough to hold growth down."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"The sentence opens \"even if the other arguments fail to go through and we cannot even attain AI that perfectly substitutes for humans across all tasks\". CES task model with complementary tasks; a fixed stock of inputs reallocated from automated to unautomated tasks; input to automated tasks approximated as infinite (very cheap, very large AI inputs), so finite AI input would reduce the effect; about 90% of tasks automated (f = 0.1 unautomated) within less than ten years; substitution parameter ρ = −2 between tasks, below the range of −1.2 to −0.14 the authors cite as plausible for capital and labour."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". 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In the same turn Besiroglu says that with 25% of tasks unautomated output could still rise by one or two orders of magnitude."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"Some essential input subject to physical limits on productivity; tasks are complements."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says limits end super-exponential growth eventually; does not say they prevent explosive growth or end it quickly.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-c","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that physical resource needs bind, because inputs per unit of output can fall as fast as production rises."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons in the same turn against the premises that resource limits and experiment times bind."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that resource constraints bind soon enough to preclude explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(G06-a) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06. (G06-b) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06.","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Singularity defined in the paper as \"a time when the economic growth rate crosses 20% per year\"; tests on US data to about 2014."}}},{"id":"ec-g06-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-a","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". The printed issue was not retrieved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. His later record as an economist does not count for this text."},"conditions":"Uploads can be copied fast and cheaply; values evolve under selection; copying is not forcibly prevented."}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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Economist (MIT Economics, author-hosted PDF) writing for a core economics venue: prepared for Economic Policy; NBER Working Paper 32487; journal version in Economic Policy."},"conditions":"Task-based model; cost savings at the task level; existing estimates of exposure (about 4.6% of tasks affected within ten years) and of cost savings (15.4%)."}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Robin Hanson","value":"median prediction of a transition to an economic doubling time of one to two years","horizon":"around 2025 (measured from an undated file attested 2000)","definition":"doubling time of world product of one to two years","conditional":true,"conditions":"\"an empirical projection of historical trends in world economic growth\"; the author adds that it \"has large uncertainties\" and links 2025 to brain-equivalent computer hardware in the next sentence."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","subject":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Title page: \"December, 2000 / First Version September 1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined as >30% annual GWP growth; horizon 2100.","estimates":[{"holder":"Tom Davidson","value":"\"plausible but far from certain\"; >10% (Appendix G); \"as low as 15% or as high as 60%\" on different days","horizon":"by 2100 (from June 2021)","definition":"more than 30% annual growth of gross world product","conditional":false,"conditions":"Overall judgement across the report's models and objections."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined in the paper as annual real GWP exceeding 130% of its maximum value over all previous years (about ten times growth rates typical of today's frontier economies).","estimates":[{"holder":"Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu","value":"about even odds of widespread automation and subsequent explosive growth","horizon":"by the end of this century (from October 2023)","definition":"annual real gross world product exceeding 130% of its maximum over all previous years","conditional":false,"conditions":"The same paragraph says high confidence \"seems unwarranted\"."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"estimates":[{"holder":"William D. 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Economist (MIT Economics, author-hosted PDF) writing for a core economics venue: prepared for Economic Policy; NBER Working Paper 32487; journal version in Economic Policy."}}}},{"id":"ec-g09-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. 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Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes what electronic computers can do; it does not by itself say whether the economist's analysis treats them as ordinary technical change. That framing is on p. 31 (mechanization principle).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"Choice is limited to 'previously anticipated' courses of action under built-in criteria."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","subject":"buckingham-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-14","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed; the volume was printed by the GPO in 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (\"as an economist\", associate professor at Georgia Tech, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. 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(M01-04) Nourse distinguishes feedback control technologically; this does not dispute analysing automation as ordinary economic technical change.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"(M01-03) Summarises the witnesses' account of 'automation as mechanization'. (M01-04) The newness is technological, in feedback control. He continues: 'It has its roots in mechanization, to be sure, but something new was added.'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement-a","subject":"nourse-1955-automation-hearings-statement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10-28","note":"Hearing day of the statement, as printed. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Prepared statement by an economist (former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, shown in the text); a substantive argued statement. Tier 1 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (economist testimony)."},"conditions":"The sentence continues: 'of trying to capture the values of higher productivity put within our reach by scientific progress'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-technology-and-the-american-economy-1966-b","subject":"technology-and-the-american-economy-1966","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Report dated February 1966. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv) is stated not to be part of the official report. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Agnostic on whether the computer is more revolutionary than earlier technologies; gives no positive analysis of it as ordinary technical change.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Main Commission report: tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12 (most members were not economists; the chair Bowen and Solow were). Was tier 1. The chairman's introduction (pp. xi–xiv, by Bowen) is outside the official report; it stays here at tier 2 by maintainer decision of 2026-10-12."},"conditions":"Agnostic rather than a denial. The chapter then measures technological change through output per man-hour and diffusion lags, the same measures for every innovation."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-sporn-haggerty-1966-comment-b","subject":"sporn-haggerty-1966-comment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the report. A separate comment by two non-economist members (a utility executive and an industrialist), printed with the report. 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Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Technological description inside a diffusion case study. The computer is one of several case-study innovations (with nuclear power, numerical control and others) analysed by the same time-lag method. No economic category.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (consultant, INTEC, Inc.)."},"conditions":"The same section says the 1948 stored program and memory 'transformed the computer from a high-speed adding machine to its present status of “electronic brain.”' (the term is in quotation marks in the source)."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-mansfield-1966-technological-change-b","subject":"mansfield-1966-technological-change","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1966-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the appendix volume. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A general definition of technological change, not an analysis of computers or automation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Economist author (Edwin Mansfield; established record as an economist)."},"conditions":"General definition; applies 'regardless of its source or form'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-c","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Directly rejects the premise that AI can be analysed like previous labour-saving technologies, citing Simon's model as the contrary view."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A historical analogy that treats the 'electronic revolution' like mechanical power. It is not an analytical treatment of computers as ordinary technical change, though the report's method (technical coefficients in an input-output model) does treat them that way.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Preceded by: the industrial revolution of mechanical power continued 'over a period of some two hundred years'."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure-b","subject":"krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 1991\"; text dated \"August 1991\" inside. Journal version: QJE 108(1), 1993 (Crossref census), not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States the research question; the framing as technical change is in M01-13.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Krueger an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure-a","subject":"krueger-1991-computers-wage-structure","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 1991\"; text dated \"August 1991\" inside. Journal version: QJE 108(1), 1993 (Crossref census), not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Krueger an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-a","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."},"conditions":"Machines and unskilled labour combine in a CES intermediate; the intermediate combines with skilled labour; u is machine efficiency."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-b","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Neither clearly ordinary technical-change analysis (it revises the task model's premises about what computers can do) nor a separate category for machine cognition (computer capital remains an input at a falling price).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Dated September 2015, after the working boundary; the paper also discusses superintelligence as a distinct prospect drawn from computer science.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Nordhaus an economist."},"conditions":"Constant savings rate, closed economy, capital-augmenting technical change, CES production."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2016-race-between-machine-and-man","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2016-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2016, Revised June 2017\". Journal version: AER 108(6), 2018, pp. 1488–1542 (abstract page aer2018-ar). 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Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Not a pre-2015 text; a 2017 statement of continuity between AI and earlier automation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). 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(M08-03) An illustrative calculation for one application (call centres), not an aggregate estimate.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(M08-02) Assumes drivers needed for current workload fall from 3.5 million to 1.5 million out of 122 million private nonfarm employment, over a supposed 10-year transition; excludes complementary gains. (M08-03) Assumes AI handles 60–70% of calls and reduces call-centre workers (about 2.2 million in 2015) by 60%."}}},{"id":"ec-m08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-05","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the author-hosted version: \"April 5, 2024\". 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(M08-06) Modest investment response (capital rising in proportion to TFP) versus an investment boom like earlier automation."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-automation-hearings-1955-other-witnesses-b","subject":"automation-hearings-1955-other-witnesses","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1955-10","note":"Hearings held October 14–28, 1955. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A non-economist's call for economists to rethink theory in light of automation, not a description of the state of economics. 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