{"entities":[{"id":"anthropic-llms-biorisk-2025-09","name":"LLMs and biorisk","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"anthropic-llms-biorisk","label":"Anthropic Frontier Red Team post (5 September 2025)","publisherId":"anthropic","publishedAt":"2025-09-05","dateNote":"The page's own metadata reads \"Published Sep 5, 2025\" and names the Frontier Red Team (`anthropic-biorisk`)."}},{"id":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","name":"AI and Biorisk: An Explainer","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer","label":"Extended explainer PDF (December 2023)","publisherId":"cset-georgetown","publishedAt":"2023-12","dateNote":"The CSET publication page gives \"December 2023\" and the author's name (`cset-biorisk-explainer`); the PDF itself carries no date, so the month stays a month."}},{"id":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models-2025-06","name":"Contemporary AI foundation models increase biological weapons risk","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models","label":"RAND working paper WR-A3853-1, arXiv v1 (12 June 2025)","publisherId":"rand-corporation","publishedAt":"2025-06-12","dateNote":"The arXiv abstract page for 2506.13798 records the v1 submission as 12 June 2025 and the report number WR-A3853-1 (`arxiv-2506-13798-abs`); the PDF's cover reads \"June 2025\" (`brent-mckelvey-2025`). A later RAND perspective (PEA3853-1) with a similar title was seen in search results and was not retrieved."}},{"id":"itif-shift-rhetoric-2024-04","name":"The Shift in Rhetoric on AI and Biothreats Is a Lesson on the Risks of Premature Regulation","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"itif-shift-rhetoric","label":"ITIF blog post (30 April 2024)","publisherId":"itif","publishedAt":"2024-04-30","dateNote":"The post's own byline reads \"By Martin Makaryan | April 30, 2024\" (`itif-2024`)."}},{"id":"kapoor-open-foundation-models-2024-02","name":"On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"kapoor-open-foundation-models","label":"arXiv v1 (27 February 2024)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2024-02-27","dateNote":"The PDF's arXiv stamp reads \"arXiv:2403.07918v1 [cs.CY] 27 Feb 2024\" and the paper's own dateline reads \"February 27, 2024\" (`kapoor-open-2024`)."}},{"id":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","name":"Towards Responsible Governance of Biological Design Tools","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"moulange-bdt-governance","label":"arXiv v1 (27 November 2023)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2023-11-27","dateNote":"The PDF's arXiv stamp reads \"arXiv:2311.15936v1 [cs.CY] 27 Nov 2023\" (`moulange-2023`). The paper's footer names the Regulatable Machine Learning workshop at NeurIPS 2023; no separate workshop date was retrieved."}},{"id":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk-2024-12","name":"The Reality of AI and Biorisk","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk","label":"arXiv v1 (2 December 2024)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2024-12-02","dateNote":"The PDF's arXiv stamp reads \"arXiv:2412.01946v1 [cs.AI] 2 Dec 2024\"; the paper's own front matter reads \"Released as a preprint on December 4, 2024\" (`peppin-reality-2024`). The stamp date is used, and the discrepancy is recorded rather than resolved."}},{"id":"rand-bio-redteam-report-2024","name":"The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks: Results of a Red-Team Study","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"rand-bio-redteam","label":"Research report RR-A2977-2, published 25 January 2024","publisherId":"rand-corporation","publishedAt":"2024-01-25","dateNote":"Date from RAND's publication page for RR-A2977-2; the report PDF itself carries only '© 2024 RAND Corporation'."}},{"id":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","name":"Artificial intelligence and biological misuse: Differentiating risks of language models and biological design tools","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse","label":"arXiv v1 (24 June 2023)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2023-06-24","revisedAt":"2023-12-23","dateNote":"The arXiv abstract page for 2306.13952v1 records the v1 submission as 24 June 2023 and a latest version v8 of 23 December 2023 (`arxiv-2306-13952-abs`). Only v1 was retrieved and quoted."}},{"id":"seger-open-sourcing-2023-09","name":"Open-Sourcing Highly Capable Foundation Models: An evaluation of risks, benefits, and alternative methods for pursuing open-source objectives","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"seger-open-sourcing","label":"arXiv v1 (submitted 29 September 2023)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2023-09-29","dateNote":"The arXiv abstract page for 2311.09227v1 and the PDF's own arXiv stamp both give 29 September 2023 as the v1 submission date, although the identifier was issued in the November 2023 series (`arxiv-2311-09227-abs`, `seger-2023`)."}},{"id":"soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06","name":"Can large language models democratize access to dual-use biotechnology?","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"soice-llm-dual-use","label":"arXiv v1 (6 June 2023)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2023-06-06","dateNote":"The arXiv abstract page for 2306.03809v1 records the v1 submission as 6 June 2023 (`arxiv-2306-03809-abs`). The PDF text layer carries no date."}},{"id":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift","name":"Currently available AI systems increase an actor's biological-misuse capability","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D1","criterion":"The text states that AI systems already deployed or publicly available at the time of writing increase the ability of an actor seeking to cause biological harm, relative to the resources otherwise available to that actor.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck","name":"The binding barrier is physical execution rather than information","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D2","criterion":"The text states that access to information is not the barrier that limits biological misuse, because what remains required is physical: acquiring materials and succeeding at hands-on laboratory work.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-evaluation-validity","name":"Published evaluations do not establish real-world biological risk","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D3","criterion":"The text states that published evaluations or benchmarks of AI systems' biological capability do not, as conducted, establish the level of real-world biological misuse risk.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct","name":"Biological design tools pose risks distinct from those of language models","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D4","criterion":"The text states that AI tools built to design or predict biological molecules or systems create misuse risks that differ in kind, in the actors they affect or in the governance they require, from those of general-purpose language models.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point","name":"Synthesis-order screening is a control point for AI-related biological risk","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D5","criterion":"The text states that screening orders for synthesised nucleic acids is a control point on which mitigation of AI-related biological risk depends.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk","name":"Public release of model weights increases biological misuse risk","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D6","criterion":"The text states that making model weights publicly available increases the risk of biological misuse, or that some models should for that reason not be released openly.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope","name":"Assessment must cover actors who already hold relevant skills","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"D7","criterion":"The text states that assessment of AI-related biological risk must cover actors who already hold relevant scientific skills, and not only actors without them.","terms":[]}}],"claims":[{"id":"ab-arg-d1-soice-articulates","subject":"soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission, the expression quoted."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the claim as a suggestion drawn from a one-hour classroom exercise."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d2-soice-contests","subject":"soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission, the expression quoted."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"The contesting point is one clause of a conclusion drawn from a one-hour classroom exercise.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The sentence addresses the premise about laboratory training directly rather than asserting only a contrary conclusion."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d5-soice-context","subject":"soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission, the expression quoted."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Screening is one of three measures the preprint proposes, not a sole control point.","missing":"The passage proposes screening among three promising measures; it does not state that mitigation of AI-related biological risk depends on screening, which is the proposition’s criterion."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-sandbrink-articulates","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; the article was revised to v8 on 23 December 2023, and only v1 is cited."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a claim about information provision, with historical programmes as the comparison."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d4-sandbrink-articulates","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; only v1 is cited."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Differentiates the two classes by the barriers each affects and by the actors each favours."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d5-sandbrink-articulates","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; only v1 is cited."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated for the risks the preprint attributes to design tools in particular."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d7-sandbrink-context","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; only v1 is cited."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the point as a contrast with the barrier-lowering effect it attributes to language models.","missing":"The passage states that design tools expand the capabilities of sophisticated actors and proposes interventions aimed at them; it does not state that assessment must cover actors who already hold relevant skills, which is the proposition’s criterion."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d6-seger-articulates","subject":"seger-open-sourcing-2023-09","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Submission date of arXiv v1 as given by the abstract page and the PDF's own stamp, although the identifier belongs to the November 2023 series."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Scoped by the authors to some highly capable models expected in the near future."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d4-moulange-articulates","subject":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp on the PDF."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the difference in terms of what regulation each class needs."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d5-moulange-context","subject":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp on the PDF."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a possibility (\"could be used\"), not as an observed outcome.","missing":"The passage states that the design capabilities could be used to evade screening; it does not contest screening’s role as a control point on which mitigation depends, which the contesting relation would require."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d6-moulange-articulates","subject":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp on the PDF."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated of biological design tools, whose weights the paper says are often released openly."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d2-batalis-context","subject":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12","basis":"publication","note":"Month given on the CSET publication page; the day is not stated, so the date stays a month."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated across two of the explainer's own conclusions — that the information barrier is not high and that feasibility also requires hands-on production success — and in no passage that ranks the two.","missing":"The explainer states that information and hands-on production success are both required; it does not state that access to information is not the barrier that limits biological misuse."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d4-batalis-articulates","subject":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12","basis":"publication","note":"Month given on the CSET publication page; the day is not stated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the difference as one of required expertise and of the user population."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d7-batalis-context","subject":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12","basis":"publication","note":"Month given on the CSET publication page; the day is not stated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A key takeaway of the explainer, quoted as the explainer words it.","missing":"The explainer asks for scenario- and actor-specific assessment in general, but does not state that actors who already hold relevant scientific skills must be within the scope of assessment."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-mouton-contests","subject":"rand-bio-redteam-report-2024","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-01-25","basis":"publication","note":"Publication date given on the RAND landing page for RR-A2977-2."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"The report's conclusions also state what it does not quantify.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The report gives a measured comparison against an internet-only control as its reason, rather than only asserting the contrary."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d6-kapoor-contests","subject":"kapoor-open-foundation-models-2024-02","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-02-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp and the paper's own dateline."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Contests the evidential basis, not the possibility of risk. Earliest located contesting text among those searched in this pass.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The paper disputes the evidential premise by asking for marginal risk relative to pre-existing technologies, rather than asserting the contrary conclusion."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-itif-contests","subject":"itif-shift-rhetoric-2024-04","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-30","basis":"publication","note":"Dateline of the post."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A policy commentary, reporting other work; the claim about an expert consensus is the post's own.","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"The post asserts the contrary conclusion and attributes it to other studies, rather than giving its own reason against a premise."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-peppin-contests","subject":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk-2024-12","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp; the paper's front matter gives 4 December 2024 as its release date."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a finding about the literature, and limited by the paper to current models.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The paper gives its reading of the published studies as its reason, not only the contrary conclusion."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d3-peppin-articulates","subject":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk-2024-12","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-evaluation-validity"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp; the paper's front matter gives 4 December 2024 as its release date."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated of the studies available to the authors in late 2024."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-brent-articulates","subject":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models-2025-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission of the working paper, whose cover reads June 2025."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a finding of the paper's own model dialogues, which are not described here."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d2-brent-contests","subject":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models-2025-06","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission of the working paper, attested by the arXiv listing page; the paper's own cover gives only June 2025."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Contests the premise as the paper states other assessments hold it.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The paper names the tacit-knowledge premise and argues against it from historical cases."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d3-brent-articulates","subject":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models-2025-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-evaluation-validity"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission of the working paper."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Argues that the direction of the measurement error is an understatement of risk."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d7-brent-articulates","subject":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models-2025-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission of the working paper, attested by the arXiv listing page; the paper's own cover gives only June 2025."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the point as a criticism of benchmark coverage."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d2-anthropic-contests","subject":"anthropic-llms-biorisk-2025-09","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-09-05","basis":"publication","note":"Publication date given on the post."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A developer's own post; the suggestion is hedged in the source.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The post gives its own pilot study as a reason to doubt the premise, while stating the study's limits."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d3-anthropic-articulates","subject":"anthropic-llms-biorisk-2025-09","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-evaluation-validity"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2025-09-05","basis":"publication","note":"Publication date given on the post."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"The same sentence states that the trials show plausibility; the record does not separate the two halves."}}}],"sources":[{"id":"source-ab-soice-2023","documentId":"soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06","authors":["arXiv (preprint, Emily H. Soice, Rafael Rocha, Kimberlee Cordova, Michael Specter, Kevin M. Esvelt)"],"publisherId":"arxiv"},{"id":"source-ab-sandbrink-2023","documentId":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","authors":["arXiv (preprint, Jonas B. Sandbrink, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford)"],"publisherId":"arxiv"},{"id":"source-ab-seger-2023","documentId":"seger-open-sourcing-2023-09","authors":["arXiv (preprint, Elizabeth Seger and 21 other authors; Centre for the Governance of AI and others)"],"publisherId":"arxiv"},{"id":"source-ab-moulange-2023","documentId":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","authors":["arXiv (preprint; workshop paper, Regulatable Machine Learning at NeurIPS 2023)"],"publisherId":"arxiv"},{"id":"source-ab-batalis-cset-2023","documentId":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","authors":["Center for Security and Emerging Technology, Georgetown University"],"publisherId":"cset-georgetown"},{"id":"source-ab-rand-redteam","documentId":"rand-bio-redteam-report-2024","authors":["RAND Corporation"],"publisherId":"rand-corporation"},{"id":"source-ab-kapoor-open-2024","documentId":"kapoor-open-foundation-models-2024-02","authors":["arXiv (preprint, Sayash Kapoor, Rishi Bommasani and others)"],"publisherId":"arxiv"},{"id":"source-ab-itif-2024","documentId":"itif-shift-rhetoric-2024-04","authors":["Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (blog; Martin Makaryan)"],"publisherId":"itif"},{"id":"source-ab-peppin-reality-2024","documentId":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk-2024-12","authors":["arXiv (preprint, Aidan Peppin, Anka Reuel, Stephen Casper and others)"],"publisherId":"arxiv"},{"id":"source-ab-brent-mckelvey-2025","documentId":"brent-mckelvey-foundation-models-2025-06","authors":["RAND Corporation (working paper WR-A3853-1), posted to arXiv"],"publisherId":"rand-corporation"},{"id":"source-ab-anthropic-biorisk","documentId":"anthropic-llms-biorisk-2025-09","authors":["Anthropic (Frontier Red Team)"],"publisherId":"anthropic"}],"evidence":[],"at":{"entities":[1232,1234,1235,1240,1241,1243,1246,1247,1248,1249,1250,1254,1255,1256,1257,1258,1259,1260],"claims":[3412,3413,3414,3415,3416,3417,3418,3419,3420,3421,3422,3423,3424,3425,3426,3427,3428,3429,3430,3431,3432,3433,3434,3435,3436],"sources":[1063,1065,1067,1069,1070,1072,1073,1074,1075,1076,1078],"evidence":[]},"index":{"byClaim":[["ab-arg-d1-soice-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d1-sandbrink-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d1-mouton-contests",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d1-itif-contests",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d1-peppin-contests",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d1-brent-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d2-soice-contests",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d2-batalis-context",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d2-brent-contests",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d2-anthropic-contests",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d3-peppin-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d3-brent-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d3-anthropic-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d4-sandbrink-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d4-moulange-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d4-batalis-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d5-soice-context",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d5-sandbrink-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d5-moulange-context",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d6-seger-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d6-moulange-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d6-kapoor-contests",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d7-sandbrink-context",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d7-batalis-context",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]],["ab-arg-d7-brent-articulates",["propositions:ai-bio-arguments"]]],"marks":[["brent-mckelvey-foundation-models-2025-06",[{"collectionId":"ai-bio-arguments","propositionId":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope","claimId":"ab-arg-d7-brent-articulates","text":"Earliest located in Arguments about AI and biological risk for D7 Assessment must cover actors who already hold relevant skills"}]],["kapoor-open-foundation-models-2024-02",[{"collectionId":"ai-bio-arguments","propositionId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk","claimId":"ab-arg-d6-kapoor-contests","text":"Earliest located text contesting D6 Public release of model weights increases biological misuse risk in Arguments about AI and biological risk"}]],["peppin-reality-ai-biorisk-2024-12",[{"collectionId":"ai-bio-arguments","propositionId":"ab-prop-evaluation-validity","claimId":"ab-arg-d3-peppin-articulates","text":"Earliest located in Arguments about AI and biological risk for D3 Published evaluations do not establish real-world biological risk"}]],["rand-bio-redteam-report-2024",[{"collectionId":"ai-bio-arguments","propositionId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift","claimId":"ab-arg-d1-mouton-contests","text":"Earliest located text contesting D1 Currently available AI systems increase an actor's biological-misuse capability in Arguments about AI and biological risk"}]],["sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06",[{"collectionId":"ai-bio-arguments","propositionId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct","claimId":"ab-arg-d4-sandbrink-articulates","text":"Earliest located in Arguments about AI and biological risk for D4 Biological design tools pose risks distinct from those of language models"},{"collectionId":"ai-bio-arguments","propositionId":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point","claimId":"ab-arg-d5-sandbrink-articulates","text":"Earliest located in Arguments about AI and biological risk for D5 Synthesis-order screening is a control point for AI-related biological risk"}]],["seger-open-sourcing-2023-09",[{"collectionId":"ai-bio-arguments","propositionId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk","claimId":"ab-arg-d6-seger-articulates","text":"Earliest located in Arguments about AI and biological risk for D6 Public release of model weights increases biological misuse risk"}]],["soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06",[{"collectionId":"ai-bio-arguments","propositionId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift","claimId":"ab-arg-d1-soice-articulates","text":"Earliest located in Arguments about AI and biological risk for D1 Currently available AI systems increase an actor's biological-misuse capability"},{"collectionId":"ai-bio-arguments","propositionId":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck","claimId":"ab-arg-d2-soice-contests","text":"Earliest located text contesting D2 The binding barrier is physical execution rather than information in Arguments about AI and biological risk"}]]],"chronicle":{"years":[{"year":1863,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1865,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1872,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1943,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1947,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1950,"topics":{"ideas":7},"stated":0},{"year":1951,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1952,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1955,"topics":{"ideas":31},"stated":0},{"year":1956,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1957,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1958,"topics":{"ideas":3},"stated":0},{"year":1959,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1960,"topics":{"ideas":11},"stated":0},{"year":1961,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1965,"topics":{"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1966,"topics":{"ideas":20},"stated":0},{"year":1968,"topics":{"ideas":5},"stated":0},{"year":1969,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1971,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1972,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1973,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1974,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1975,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1976,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1977,"topics":{"people":2,"ideas":8},"stated":0},{"year":1979,"topics":{"ideas":10},"stated":0},{"year":1980,"topics":{"ideas":2},"stated":0},{"year":1981,"topics":{"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":1982,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1983,"topics":{"ideas":4},"stated":0},{"year":1984,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":1985,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1986,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1987,"topics":{"ideas":1},"stated":0},{"year":1988,"topics":{"ideas":6},"stated":0},{"year":1989,"topics":{"ideas":25},"stated":0},{"year":1990,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":1991,"topics":{"ideas":14},"stated":0},{"year":1992,"topics":{"ideas":15},"stated":0},{"year":1993,"topics":{"ideas":21,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":1994,"topics":{"ideas":18},"stated":0},{"year":1995,"topics":{"ideas":10,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":1996,"topics":{"ideas":71},"stated":0},{"year":1997,"topics":{"ideas":17},"stated":0},{"year":1998,"topics":{"ideas":50},"stated":0},{"year":1999,"topics":{"ideas":31,"people":1,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2000,"topics":{"ideas":70},"stated":0},{"year":2001,"topics":{"ideas":52},"stated":0},{"year":2002,"topics":{"ideas":30},"stated":0},{"year":2003,"topics":{"ideas":9},"stated":0},{"year":2004,"topics":{"ideas":14,"people":3},"stated":0},{"year":2005,"topics":{"ideas":20,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2006,"topics":{"ideas":26,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2007,"topics":{"ideas":21},"stated":0},{"year":2008,"topics":{"ideas":65,"people":3,"institutions":1},"stated":0},{"year":2009,"topics":{"ideas":12,"people":1},"stated":0},{"year":2010,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":13,"institutions":1,"governance":4},"stated":0},{"year":2011,"topics":{"people":3,"ideas":16,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2012,"topics":{"people":4,"ideas":19,"institutions":2},"stated":0},{"year":2013,"topics":{"ideas":45,"people":4,"institutions":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2014,"topics":{"institutions":2,"ideas":57,"people":5},"stated":0},{"year":2015,"topics":{"people":23,"ideas":133,"institutions":3,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2016,"topics":{"ideas":88,"people":2},"stated":0},{"year":2017,"topics":{"people":16,"institutions":2,"ideas":130,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2018,"topics":{"people":9,"ideas":159,"institutions":8,"governance":1},"stated":0},{"year":2019,"topics":{"capital":1,"compute":1,"people":11,"governance":19,"ideas":175,"institutions":4},"stated":0},{"year":2020,"topics":{"people":6,"ideas":98,"institutions":1,"governance":2},"stated":0},{"year":2021,"topics":{"people":27,"ideas":177,"compute":1,"institutions":23,"governance":4,"capital":6},"stated":0},{"year":2022,"topics":{"people":15,"ideas":228,"institutions":6,"governance":3,"compute":2,"capital":1},"stated":0},{"year":2023,"topics":{"capital":14,"compute":7,"institutions":24,"people":54,"governance":179,"ideas":409},"stated":0},{"year":2024,"topics":{"capital":31,"compute":19,"governance":282,"people":103,"ideas":180,"institutions":32},"stated":1},{"year":2025,"topics":{"governance":548,"compute":69,"capital":61,"people":145,"institutions":26,"ideas":180},"stated":7},{"year":2026,"topics":{"governance":444,"capital":31,"compute":32,"institutions":23,"ideas":97,"people":139},"stated":19},{"year":2027,"topics":{},"stated":8},{"year":2028,"topics":{},"stated":6},{"year":2029,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2030,"topics":{},"stated":3},{"year":2032,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2035,"topics":{},"stated":2},{"year":2039,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2042,"topics":{},"stated":1},{"year":2050,"topics":{},"stated":1}],"scheduled":[],"statedBy":[]},"collections":[{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"superintelligence"},"title":"Propositions about superintelligence, 1863–2022","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"risk-debate"},"title":"Arguments about catastrophic risk from advanced AI","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"yudkowsky-arguments"},"title":"Eliezer Yudkowsky’s arguments on common claims about AI, 1996–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"machine-succession"},"title":"Machine succession, scale and acceleration: propositions in located texts, 1979–2026","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"economics-of-machine-intelligence"},"title":"Economics of machine intelligence","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"orbital-compute-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about compute in orbit","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-bio-arguments"},"title":"Arguments about AI and biological risk","claimIds":["ab-arg-d1-soice-articulates","ab-arg-d1-sandbrink-articulates","ab-arg-d1-mouton-contests","ab-arg-d1-itif-contests","ab-arg-d1-peppin-contests","ab-arg-d1-brent-articulates","ab-arg-d2-soice-contests","ab-arg-d2-batalis-context","ab-arg-d2-brent-contests","ab-arg-d2-anthropic-contests","ab-arg-d3-peppin-articulates","ab-arg-d3-brent-articulates","ab-arg-d3-anthropic-articulates","ab-arg-d4-sandbrink-articulates","ab-arg-d4-moulange-articulates","ab-arg-d4-batalis-articulates","ab-arg-d5-soice-context","ab-arg-d5-sandbrink-articulates","ab-arg-d5-moulange-context","ab-arg-d6-seger-articulates","ab-arg-d6-moulange-articulates","ab-arg-d6-kapoor-contests","ab-arg-d7-sandbrink-context","ab-arg-d7-batalis-context","ab-arg-d7-brent-articulates"],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"propositions","id":"ai-in-science"},"title":"AI in science","claimIds":[],"records":[]},{"target":{"kind":"documents"},"title":"Frontier safety frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"compare","id":"frontier-safety-frameworks"},"title":"Compare frameworks","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"openai"},"title":"OpenAI’s control structure, 2015–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"control","id":"anthropic"},"title":"Anthropic’s control structure, 2021–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"commitments"},"title":"External commitments and obligations","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"question","id":"frameworks-to-obligations"},"title":"Frameworks, commitments and legal obligations, 2023–2026","claimIds":[]},{"target":{"kind":"reading"},"title":"Founding and early leadership","claimIds":[]}]},"version":"15mccro"}