{"entities":[{"id":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","name":"If Uploads Come First: The Crack of a Future Dawn","type":"document"},{"id":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","name":"Recursive Self-Improvement","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-what-core-argument","name":"What Core Argument?","type":"document"},{"id":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution","name":"Machine substitution for labour produces explosive growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G01","criterion":"The text states that if machines (AI systems or emulated minds) can substitute for human labour across all or nearly all tasks, so that labour can be produced like capital, the growth rate of output rises far above historical rates (by roughly an order of magnitude or more) or keeps rising. The conditions under which the text derives this are part of the record.","terms":[]}},{"id":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research","name":"Automated research produces accelerating growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G02","criterion":"The text states that if machines substitute for, or improve, the producers of ideas (researchers, inventors, engineers), feedback from output to research effort makes growth accelerate: super-exponential growth, growth rates rising without bound, or a finite-time singularity. The conditions under which the text derives this are part of the record.","terms":[]}},{"id":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration","name":"Long-run history suggests a further acceleration","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G03","criterion":"The text infers from the long-run history of world output or population (hyperbolic or super-exponential growth, or a sequence of ever faster growth modes) that a future transition to much faster growth is plausible or expected.","terms":[]}},{"id":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth","name":"Essential unautomated tasks bottleneck growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G04","criterion":"The text states that growth is constrained because essential tasks or inputs remain unautomated or unimproved, or are automated only slowly, so that automating many but not all tasks, or automating them gradually, does not by itself produce explosive growth (Baumol's cost disease; an elasticity of substitution below one between tasks or between information and other inputs). Reasons why automation stays incomplete or slow (technical difficulty, physical-world tasks, training data, regulation of AI training or deployment, slow adoption) belong here.","terms":[]}},{"id":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth","name":"Other constraints prevent explosive growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G05","criterion":"The text states that constraints that would still bind if machines performed all or nearly all tasks (physical laws or limits, natural resources and energy, the time that natural processes and experiments take, regulation of activities other than AI training and deployment, or demand for human-provided goods) can prevent or quickly end explosive growth.","terms":[]}},{"id":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth","name":"Current data show no approach to explosive growth","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G06","criterion":"The text states, on the basis of current or recent economic data, that the economy shows no sign yet of approaching a growth singularity or explosive growth.","terms":[]}},{"id":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages","name":"Machine substitution drives wages down","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G07","criterion":"The text states that once machines substitute for human labour at falling cost, the market wage of human labour falls (towards the cost of machine labour, or below subsistence), even while total output or wealth rises.","terms":[]}},{"id":"modest-near-term-ai-productivity-effect","name":"AI’s near-term aggregate productivity effect is modest","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G08","criterion":"The text estimates or states that the effect of AI on aggregate productivity or GDP over roughly the next decade will be modest: a small effect on the level of output, not a change in the growth regime.","terms":[]}},{"id":"explosive-growth-estimates","name":"Estimates of explosive growth within a stated horizon","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"G09","criterion":"The text states its own estimate of whether or when explosive growth (as the text defines it) occurs in the actual future, with machine intelligence or automation among the stated drivers. Each record gives the holder, the estimate as stated (a number or words), the horizon, the text's definition and the conditions. Records are not converted to a common threshold, combined or ranked; a low estimate and a high estimate both articulate this proposition.","terms":[],"withheld":[{"role":"earliest-located","reason":"Withheld on 2026-10-25 by maintainer decision. The earlier holder, Hanson’s “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence”, relays his separate 1998 projection. 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Texts that assume new tasks in which labour is cheaper keep appearing bear on it without meeting it.","terms":[]}},{"id":"automation-lowers-labour-income","name":"Automation lowers the labour share, wages or employment","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M06a","criterion":"A text that states or models that AI or automation lowers the labour share, wages or employment for some or all workers.","terms":[]}},{"id":"compensating-policy-for-ai","name":"Compensating policy for AI’s distributional effects","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M06b","criterion":"A text that argues for redistribution, taxation or another compensating policy in response to distributional effects of AI or automation.","terms":[]}},{"id":"task-based-exposure-measurement","name":"Exposure to automation measured from task content","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M07","criterion":"A text that estimates the share of jobs, occupations or tasks exposed or susceptible to computerisation or AI from task or occupation descriptions.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade","name":"AI’s productivity effect over the next decade","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M08","criterion":"A text that gives a stated estimate of AI's effect on aggregate productivity or GDP over a horizon of about ten years from the text's date. The figure and horizon are recorded; the proposition is neutral as to size.","terms":[]}},{"id":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai","name":"Recent entry of machine intelligence into mainstream economics","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"M09","criterion":"Not a criterion for a single passage. Assessed from the dated record: the earliest located tier-1 texts, within the searched scope, whose subject is AI, automation by AI or machine intelligence; plus explicit self-descriptions in tier-1 texts of the field as new or neglected. Tier-2 and outside texts are context.","terms":[]}},{"id":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","name":"Some Skepticism (comment in \"A Critical Discussion of Vinge's Singularity Concept\")","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","name":"Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","name":"Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes","type":"document"},{"id":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","name":"Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? 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Machines doing all economically valuable work more cheaply is M05 and bears on E02 only if cognitive superiority is stated.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis","name":"Existential risk from AI as a matter for economic analysis","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"E03","criterion":"A text that treats existential or catastrophic risk from AI (extinction, loss of control, misaligned goals) as a quantity or consideration in economic analysis, welfare trade-offs or policy.","terms":[]}},{"id":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety","name":"AI developers’ incentives matter for safety","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"E04","criterion":"A text that analyses how incentives, competition or governance of AI developers affect the safety or control of advanced AI.","terms":[]}},{"id":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence","name":"Economics’ engagement with superintelligence, AGI and the singularity","type":"concept","proposition":{"code":"E05","criterion":"A passage articulates E05 only if it explicitly says something about the state of economics on the topic: that it is new, neglected, speculative, now on the agenda of economics, or beyond economists' existing tools. 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The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"AI able to substitute for human labour on most or all tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. 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Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"A toy scenario in which AI robots can perfectly substitute for all human labour, so that labour can be accumulated through investment in robots."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that growth models remain reliable when extrapolated far beyond historical growth rates; the turn gives a reason (the reach of growth models beyond historical experience) against the premise of the model-based argument."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. 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Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-b","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". The printed issue was not retrieved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States that the population of uploads grows faster than wealth; does not state that the growth rate of total output rises.","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. His later record as an economist does not count for this text."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"AI substituting very effectively for human labour in both production and R&D."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. 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Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The feedback runs through learning by doing in production, not through machines doing research.","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the historical value of a parameter; it does not say whether AI researchers, whose number can grow, would produce accelerating growth.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner-a","subject":"hanson-1998-is-a-singularity-just-around-the-corner","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page header: \"Journal of Transhumanism 2, June 1998\". Hanson is an economist."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-03-30","note":"Author’s dateline at the end of the page (\"March 30, 1998\"); it does not date the published wording."},"attested":{"date":"1999-01-28","note":"Wayback capture of the author-hosted page."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Journal article by an author with economist standing in 1998: the archived January 1999 homepage and vita show an economics address, economics teaching in 1995–96 and economics publications before 1998 (checked by the GPT review on 2026-10-15; web.archive.org was not reachable in the correction pass). The vita gives a 1997 PhD without naming the field, so \"economics PhD\" is not claimed."},"conditions":"The Conclusion opens: \"If we assume that the risk and time preferences of future investors will not vary much from those which evolution has given us\"."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","subject":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Title page: \"December, 2000 / First Version September 1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"The sum-of-exponentials or CES-combined model of growth modes; parameters of a new transition similar to those of past transitions."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-1998-some-skepticism-b","subject":"hanson-1998-some-skepticism","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-10","basis":"publication","note":"Copyright line \"©1998 by Robin Hanson\" at the end of the comment; the author's December 2000 vita (2000-12-05 capture of hanson.gmu.edu/vita.html) lists the discussion as \"Extropy Online, Oct. 1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Uses the accelerating historical trend to bound expectations; does not infer a transition to much faster growth.","attested":{"date":"2000-11-17","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the page; the CDX index was unavailable, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Short-form commentary: a comment of about 1,500 words in an online discussion of Vinge's essay (listed by the author as Extropy Online, Oct. 1998). The author is an economist, but the rule places short-form commentary in tier 2 whoever writes it. Judgement recorded: the comment is a reply in an open discussion, with no model and no references beyond two links, not a substantive scholarly argument."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory-a","subject":"roodman-2020-modeling-the-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamps of 2020-06-15 on the page and the 2022 page's \"Published: June 15, 2020\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the post."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (changed from 2). A long essay (not short-form commentary) presenting the author's own growth model, on a foundation's blog. The author has an established record as an economist: articles in economics journals such as The World Bank Economic Review (2007) and Oxford Review of Economic Policy (2015) (Crossref, searched 2026-10-11). No economics appointment is shown on the page. His linked technical paper (posted to SSRN, Crossref 2026) would also be tier 1; it was not retrieved and holds no record here."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a","subject":"karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamp \"June 15, 2020 at 10:44 am\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Capture of the post with its comments; comments are absent from the 2022 page."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Comment on a blog post by an author not presented as an economist and with no established record as one."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-b","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Disputes that past accelerations are informative about an acceleration driven by intelligence; G03 does not require that mechanism, and the same turn grants that past acceleration \"is a good reason to think there is some chance it could happen again\".","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"(G04-a) Elasticity of substitution between information and other inputs or goods below one. (G04-b) Elasticity of substitution between information capital and labour below one."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"(G04-c) Tasks are complements (elasticity of substitution below one). (G04-d) CES production across tasks with elasticity of substitution below one."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-c","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"A model result under fixed product shares (Cobb-Douglas form); it does not argue against the premise that unautomated tasks are strong complements."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Product shares fixed; human-only jobs keep a share of 0.05 of output in the example."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that some essential task will remain unautomated, and adds that partial automation can raise growth temporarily."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that partial automation cannot produce explosive growth, by modelling a fast transition with complementary tasks; disputes the premise that regulation of AI training or deployment will keep tasks unautomated for long enough to hold growth down."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"The sentence opens \"even if the other arguments fail to go through and we cannot even attain AI that perfectly substitutes for humans across all tasks\". CES task model with complementary tasks; a fixed stock of inputs reallocated from automated to unautomated tasks; input to automated tasks approximated as infinite (very cheap, very large AI inputs), so finite AI input would reduce the effect; about 90% of tasks automated (f = 0.1 unautomated) within less than ten years; substitution parameter ρ = −2 between tasks, below the range of −1.2 to −0.14 the authors cite as plausible for capital and labour."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". 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In the same turn Besiroglu says that with 25% of tasks unautomated output could still rise by one or two orders of magnitude."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"Some essential input subject to physical limits on productivity; tasks are complements."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says limits end super-exponential growth eventually; does not say they prevent explosive growth or end it quickly.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-c","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that physical resource needs bind, because inputs per unit of output can fall as fast as production rises."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). 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Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons in the same turn against the premises that resource limits and experiment times bind."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that resource constraints bind soon enough to preclude explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(G06-a) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06. (G06-b) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is \"not near\", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion (\"no sign yet\") the record bears on G06.","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Singularity defined in the paper as \"a time when the economic growth rate crosses 20% per year\"; tests on US data to about 2014."}}},{"id":"ec-g06-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-a","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". The printed issue was not retrieved."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. His later record as an economist does not count for this text."},"conditions":"Uploads can be copied fast and cheaply; values evolve under selection; copying is not forcibly prevented."}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Exogenous-growth model with machine labour substituting for human labour; falling computer prices."}}},{"id":"ec-g07-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"conditions":"Unskilled labour a perfect substitute for information capital; skilled labour highly but imperfectly substitutable."}}},{"id":"ec-g08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"modest-near-term-ai-productivity-effect"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-05","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"April 5, 2024\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (MIT Economics, author-hosted PDF) writing for a core economics venue: prepared for Economic Policy; NBER Working Paper 32487; journal version in Economic Policy."},"conditions":"Task-based model; cost savings at the task level; existing estimates of exposure (about 4.6% of tasks affected within ten years) and of cost savings (15.4%)."}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Robin Hanson","value":"median prediction of a transition to an economic doubling time of one to two years","horizon":"around 2025 (measured from an undated file attested 2000)","definition":"doubling time of world product of one to two years","conditional":true,"conditions":"\"an empirical projection of historical trends in world economic growth\"; the author adds that it \"has large uncertainties\" and links 2025 to brain-equivalent computer hardware in the next sentence."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","subject":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Title page: \"December, 2000 / First Version September 1998\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"\"if one takes seriously the model of economic growth as a series of exponential growth modes, and if relative change parameters of a new transition are likely to be similar to such parameters describing old transitions\".","estimates":[{"holder":"Robin Hanson","value":"\"hard to escape the conclusion that the world economy could see a very dramatic change\"","horizon":"within the next century (from December 2000)","definition":"a new growth mode with a doubling time of roughly two weeks or less","conditional":true,"conditions":"If the series-of-modes model is taken seriously and a new transition resembles past ones."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory-a","subject":"karnofsky-2020-comment-human-trajectory","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2020-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Comment timestamp \"June 15, 2020 at 10:44 am\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2020-06-23","note":"Capture of the post with its comments; comments are absent from the 2022 page."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Comment on a blog post by an author not presented as an economist and with no established record as one."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Holden Karnofsky","value":"\"little reason to 'rule out' explosive growth\"","horizon":"the coming decades (from June 2020)","definition":"not defined in the comment","conditional":false,"conditions":"Tentative agreement with Roodman's themes; the same comment says transformative AI \"could plausibly be developed in the next couple of decades\"."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined as >30% annual GWP growth; horizon 2100.","estimates":[{"holder":"Tom Davidson","value":"\"plausible but far from certain\"; >10% (Appendix G); \"as low as 15% or as high as 60%\" on different days","horizon":"by 2100 (from June 2021)","definition":"more than 30% annual growth of gross world product","conditional":false,"conditions":"Overall judgement across the report's models and objections."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined in the paper as annual real GWP exceeding 130% of its maximum value over all previous years (about ten times growth rates typical of today's frontier economies).","estimates":[{"holder":"Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu","value":"about even odds of widespread automation and subsequent explosive growth","horizon":"by the end of this century (from October 2023)","definition":"annual real gross world product exceeding 130% of its maximum over all previous years","conditional":false,"conditions":"The same paragraph says high confidence \"seems unwarranted\"."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a","subject":"nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2015-09","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"September 2015\"; title page \"September 1, 2015\". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries \"September 2015\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2016-08-09","note":"Capture of the Cowles PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics."},"estimates":[{"holder":"William D. Nordhaus","value":"the economy \"might plausibly cross the Singularity\" in \"100 years or more\"","horizon":"100 years or more (from 2015)","definition":"economic growth rate crossing 20% per year","conditional":true,"conditions":"Simple extrapolation of the two of seven tests that are positive; no probability and no duration given."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-05","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"April 5, 2024\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the next ten years and current AI; does not assess explosive growth this century.","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (MIT Economics, author-hosted PDF) writing for a core economics venue: prepared for Economic Policy; NBER Working Paper 32487; journal version in Economic Policy."}}}},{"id":"ec-g09-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. 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Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. 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