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III, issue 192, p. 1, in the Papers Past record."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"satirical","missing":"The stated horizon is \"the course of ages\"; the speed is only relative to the slow progress of animals and plants."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-erewhon-1872-context","subject":"erewhon-1872","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1872","basis":"publication","note":"Year on the title page of the inspected 1872 Trübner printing (Smithsonian Libraries copy, catalogued as the first edition). Butler’s later prefaces give March 1872."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"fiction","missing":"No short transition is stated; the speed is relative to living species, and the same chapters speak of \"a hundred thousand years\" of progress."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-turing-c1951-context","subject":"turing-c1951-heretical-theory","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1951","note":"Approximate year in the King’s College catalogue (c. 1951); no exact lecture day or contemporary printing is established."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A short-sounding interval (\"would not take long\") is given, but no period of hours to months."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-turing-1951-context","subject":"turing-1951-can-digital-computers-think","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1951-05-15","note":"Broadcast date in the King’s College catalogue; the script is not a recording of what was said."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Superior machine intelligence is contemplated without a transition period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-wiener-1960-context","subject":"wiener-1960-some-moral-technical","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1960-05-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date printed on the Science pages."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The speed discussed is of machine operation and decision, not a rapid transition in intelligence.","claimed":{"date":"1959-12-27","note":"Printed p. 1355 says the article is adapted from a lecture at the AAAS meeting in Chicago on this day. The lecture text was not retrieved, so the wording is not dated to it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1983-context","subject":"vinge-1983-first-word","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1983-01","basis":"publication","note":"Omni, January 1983, p. 10, according to Vinge’s 2005 bibliography; the scan shows the byline, column title and page but no masthead."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The first superhuman intelligence is projected 20–100 years away; the length of the transition after it is not given."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-solomonoff-1985-context","subject":"solomonoff-1985-time-scale","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1985","basis":"publication","note":"Year of Human Systems Management 5, as given in the author’s file and publication list."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The illustrative transitions take years or decades, not hours to months.","attested":{"date":"2006-07-16","note":"The author’s later typesetting, with a later affiliation and contact details; a byte-identical copy at the author’s earlier address was captured on 2006-07-16. Not compared with the 1985 journal pages."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-drexler-1986-context","subject":"drexler-1986-engines-of-creation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1986","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the book, as given by its copyright notice; an October 1986 review is recorded in Moravec’s bibliography."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A great upward leap \"in a brief time\" is predicted, without a period for the transition.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-09","note":"Wording checked in the Foresight Institute’s web edition (© 1986 K. Eric Drexler; published for the web by Russell Whitaker), whose earliest captures are of 1997-07-09; a reader’s message of October 1996 on the site shows the edition was online by then. Not compared with the 1986 printing."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-moravec-1989-context","subject":"moravec-1989-genetic-takeover","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1989","basis":"publication","note":"Year of the printed chapter, as given in the author’s publication list."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No transition period of hours to months.","claimed":{"date":"1988-07","note":"The author’s file is dated July 1988."},"attested":{"date":"2001-03-06","note":"Author-hosted file; the earliest capture, of 2001-03-06, is byte-identical to the copy retrieved in 2026. Not compared with the printed chapter."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1990-context","subject":"extropy-1990-opening-transhuman-mind","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1990","basis":"publication","note":"Summer 1990, as printed in the later electronic edition of the issue."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No transition period; the word \"singularitarian\" describes posthuman art, not a takeoff.","attested":{"note":"Later electronic edition of the issue, not a scan of the original; its date is unknown."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1991-context","subject":"extropy-1991-futique-neologisms","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter/Spring 1991 on the page footer; the cover says Spring 1991."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Enormous acceleration and a limit to foresight, without a transition period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-extropy-1992-context","subject":"extropy-1992-futique-neologisms-2","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1991","basis":"publication","note":"Winter 1991/92 issue; the year given is when that season began, and publication may fall in early 1992."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Defines an advocate of the technological singularity; no transition period or AI mechanism."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1993","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-vinge-1993-context","subject":"vinge-1993-coming-technological-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1993-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication of the proceedings, catalogued by NASA’s Technical Reports Server as 1 December 1993; recorded at month precision because the day may be conventional."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No switch from cooperative while weak to hostile once released is described.","claimed":{"date":"1993-03-30","note":"Presented at the VISION-21 Symposium, 30–31 March 1993. The delivered version was not retrieved, so the proceedings wording is not dated to the presentation."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-eder-1994-context","subject":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date header as preserved in the relay (23 May 94 03:51:48 GMT, sci.nanotech); the relay lacks the Message-ID and transport headers, so the posting is not independently authenticated."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A peak in the rate of progress and a forty-year arrival forecast, without a transition period after human-level AI.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1994-context","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Third quarter 1994 on the printed footers; the issue’s contents page says September 1994."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp upload transition is discussed, but no period of hours to months from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-miller-1995-context","subject":"miller-1995-future-forecasts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1995","basis":"publication","note":"Printed footers: 2nd–3rd Quarter 1995."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Closely clustered technological events and fast uploads, without a transition period from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-08-30-context","subject":"extropians-1996-08-30-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 30 Aug 1996 23:04:09 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The \"few days or weeks\" are for building tools once a superintelligence exists; no period is given for its rise from human level."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-03-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-clemmensen","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 03 Sep 1996 19:47:30 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The period of weeks is for a malicious AI to destroy humanity; its rise in intelligence is called rapid but given no period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1996-09-03-contests","subject":"extropians-1996-09-03-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 3 Sep 96 15:11:43 PDT (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Disputes that any one AI would be far ahead of the rest.","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"States the contrary expectation that no one AI will be far ahead of the others, without giving a reason against the premise that a single system could move quickly far beyond the rest."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-bostrom-1996-09-04-context","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-bostrom","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive receipt: Wed Sep 4 10:09:44 1996 MST. The Sent header is garbled in the archive."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A rapid \"take off\" ends a contest before anyone notices, but no period and no \"hard\" or \"fast\" takeoff is named."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-04","subject":"extropians-1996-09-04-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 04 Sep 1996 19:03:20 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-clemmensen-1996-09-07","subject":"extropians-1996-09-07-clemmensen","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 07 Sep 1996 21:32:25 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-sits-context","subject":"staring-into-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"The page states \"Created: 11/18/1996\"; the essay was announced on the Extropians list on 1996-11-19."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The doubling intervals shrink from two years to weeks, but the whole rise from human equivalence takes years, and no period of hours to months is given for it.","attested":{"date":"2000-12-04","note":"The quoted wording is that of version 1.2.1 (\"Updated: 08/31/2000\") as captured on 2000-12-04; no capture of the 1996–1999 page holds the text."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5142-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5142","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 10:40:10 -0600, about four hours before Yudkowsky’s related message 5159."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Persuasive lying to gain release is stated, but not a later change of behaviour once the Power is free or strong."}}},{"id":"ts-b1-yudkowsky-1996-12-31-5159-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-yudkowsky-5159","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:50:37 -0600."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No later change of behaviour once released is described."}}},{"id":"ts-b1-crocker-1996-12-31-context","subject":"extropians-1996-12-31-crocker","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1996-12-31","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Tue, 31 Dec 1996 14:43:37 -0800 (PST) (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The exchange concerns persuasion to gain release, not a later change of behaviour."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1997-09-24-context","subject":"extropians-1997-09-24-yudkowsky","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1997-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Wed, 24 Sep 1997 20:33:34 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Three years from human-equivalent AI to infinite speed, not hours to months; who does the research is not stated."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp snap upwards that passes human level rapidly, without a period of hours to months."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-09-10-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-10","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 10 Sep 1998 10:19:36 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that AI progress comes in a few big insights that allow a sudden jump: progress depends on many small insights, and history shows sharp changes in growth rates, not in levels."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16","subject":"extropians-1998-09-16-vinge","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-16","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header of Robin Hanson’s forwarding message: Wed, 16 Sep 1998 09:38:11 -0700. Vinge’s text gives an estimate as of 15 September; the forwarding date does not date the whole composition."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation","earliest-located-term"],"register":"relay","term":"hard takeoff"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-more-1998-contests","subject":"more-1998-singularity-meets-economy","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998","basis":"publication","note":"Comments collected in 1998; a message of 1998-09-07 quotes another paragraph of More’s comment."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Doubts an immediate move to drastically superintelligent thinkers.","attested":{"date":"2000-08-17","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the earliest capture of the page, of 2000-08-17."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that the move from human-level to drastically superhuman intelligence is short: fast minds still need experiments and the cooperation of slower minds, so the improvements may take years or decades."}}}},{"id":"ts-b1-cfai","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date of version 1.0, as given in the citation line of MIRI’s reprint."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"With a capability trigger: feign until superintelligence.","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-cfai","subject":"creating-friendly-ai-2001","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2001-06-15","basis":"publication","note":"Release date of version 1.0, as given in the citation line of MIRI’s reprint."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-06-17","note":"The quoted wording is that of the 2001 HTML edition as captured on 2001-06-17; earlier version-history dates do not authenticate it."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-aipnfgr","subject":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2006-02-05","note":"Date of the SIAI draft (\"Draft of 5 February, 2006\"), whose capture of 2006-07-08 contains the quoted sentences; the chapter was published in 2008."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-rsi","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong posting time 2008-12-01T20:49:11Z of the imported Overcoming Bias post."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong posting time 2008-12-02T20:44:26Z of the imported Overcoming Bias post."},"attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Named, without a period."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-2008-core-argument-contests","subject":"hanson-2008-what-core-argument","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12","basis":"publication","note":"The current Overcoming Bias page shows 11 December 2008 and MIRI’s 2013 collection prints 10 December 2008; 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