{"entities":[{"id":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","shortName":"Nilsson, Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income (1984)","type":"document"},{"id":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","shortName":"Leontief and Duchin, The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report (1984)","type":"document"},{"id":"faye-duchin","name":"Faye Duchin","type":"person"},{"id":"wassily-leontief","name":"Wassily Leontief","type":"person"},{"id":"nils-j-nilsson","name":"Nils J. Nilsson","type":"person"}],"claims":[{"id":"ec-m01-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-c","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) contests M01. After reviewing Simon's comparative-advantage argument and Leontief's input-output work, Nilsson argues that AI differs in kind from earlier labour-saving technologies, so the usual expansion-of-employment reasoning does not carry over.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Directly rejects the premise that AI can be analysed like previous labour-saving technologies, citing Simon's model as the contrary view."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M01. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Puts the 1984 projections in a long-run perspective.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A historical analogy that treats the 'electronic revolution' like mechanical power. It is not an analytical treatment of computers as ordinary technical change, though the report's method (technical coefficients in an input-output model) does treat them that way.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Preceded by: the industrial revolution of mechanical power continued 'over a period of some two hundred years'."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M02. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Introduces the chapter's procedures for representing computer-based technologies in capital, input and labour coefficients. Projecting managerial labour coefficients under office automation. Overview before estimating robot stocks and displacement.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M02-04) Task language without a task-allocation model; the model works through input-output labour coefficients by occupation and sector. Computers, not AI. (M02-05) Software replacing decision-making tasks of managers, stated descriptively; no task-allocation framework, not AI. (M02-06) Robots taking over tasks previously done only by humans, in prose; the model represents this as labour displacement rates per robot in six production occupations, not a task framework. Not AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"(M02-04) Labour savings 'of particular significance' for banking, insurance, legal services and government. (M02-05) 'certain' tasks. The passage adds that fewer managers will be needed as integrated office systems reduce clerical staff. (M02-06) Supported by the Robot Institute of America definition, quoted by the authors."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-b","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) bears on M05. Nilsson treats the eventual performance by AI of the new jobs that AI itself creates as a matter of time, alongside his argument (pdf p. 6) that ever-cheaper AI 'labor' will replace human labour until its cost share is insignificant.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"An objection Nilsson relays (\"some might say\") before answering it, not his own claim.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-a","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) articulates M05. Applying a 'law of reduction', Nilsson argues that producers will replace human labour with cheaper AI in every activity, including the service and white-collar work to which labour has moved, and that too few nonautomatable services remain to base an economy on.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."},"conditions":"Assumes AI becomes cheaper than human labour across activities and that demand is finite."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M05. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Concluding remarks on the scenario results.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Agnostic on technological unemployment; says nothing of machines performing all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Scenarios are limited to computer-based automation and exclude other changes (agriculture, materials substitution) and 'any major break-throughs in computer technology'."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-a","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) articulates M06a. From the cost-reduction argument and the identity between labour costs and labour income, Nilsson concludes that labour's share of income will fall to a small fraction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-a","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) articulates M06a. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). The authors find that automation's effects are specific to types of work, with professionals rising and clerical workers falling sharply.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Under Scenario S3, by 2000, as a share of labour requirements. Professionals rise to nearly 20 per cent."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-a","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) articulates M06b. Rejecting 'Luddite' obstruction and make-work jobs, Nilsson favours decoupling income from work, reviewing transfer payments, Kelso and Adler's broadened capital ownership and Albus's National Mutual Fund.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M06b. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). The authors call their study 'a first systematic albeit partial glance' at employment prospects nearly twenty years ahead.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Names income distribution as a next research step (citing Duchin 1984); proposes no redistribution or compensating policy.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Part of a list of 'next steps in our agenda', with a closed dynamic model determining consumption and employment together."}}},{"id":"ec-m08-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M08. Speaker: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Headline finding of the report.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A labour-saving estimate over 20 years (to 2000), not a productivity or GDP estimate over about ten years, and it concerns computer-based automation, not AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"Model-based projection (dynamic input-output model, 89 sectors, 53 occupations, scenario S3). The abstract adds consumption growth of about 2% a year through the 1980s and 0.5-1.1% through the 1990s, assuming full use of the projected labour force."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income-b","subject":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Nilsson, “Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) bears on M09. Nilsson records that he consulted economists (Leontief, Duchin, Simon, Solow) and that Solow doubted his premises; the body sets Simon's and Leontief's opposing views against each other.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Journal page: \"Vol. 5 No. 2: Summer 1984\". An AI venue, outside economics. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports one economist's reaction; not a self-description of the field as new or neglected.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Non-economist author (an AI scientist at SRI) in an AI venue."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation-b","subject":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Leontief and Duchin, “The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) bears on M09. Speakers: Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists), Institute for Economic Analysis, New York University; Wassily Leontief and Faye Duchin (economists). Opening of the 1984 NSF-funded final report's abstract. Scope limitation in the report's summary chapter.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"ERIC résumé: \"Apr 84\". Published in book form as The Future Impact of Automation on Workers (Oxford University Press, 1986; not retrieved). Chapters 4 and 5 were drafted by other members of the Institute (Howell; McDonough), per the report; the record attributes the report to Leontief and Duchin as its authors. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-06) Characterises the literature as divided, not new or neglected. The subject is computer-based automation, not machine intelligence as such. (M09-07) Names AI-type capabilities only to exclude them from the modelled scenarios. It is evidence that a 1984 economic study scoped machine intelligence out, not that it analysed it.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Report by economists (Leontief and Duchin, NYU Institute for Economic Analysis)."},"conditions":"(M09-06) The authors argue that policy should rest on 'concrete, detailed analysis' rather than opinion. (M09-07) The authors say they 'explicitly excluded from our scenarios any major' … 'break-throughs in computer technology that might affect significant numbers of workers before the year 2000' (the sentence runs from p. 1.32 to p. 1.34 across the Figure 1.4 page)."}}},{"id":"ap-faye-duchin-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","subject":"faye-duchin","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) credits Faye Duchin as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-wassily-leontief-leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation","subject":"wassily-leontief","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"leontief-duchin-1984-impacts-of-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The Impacts of Automation on Employment, 1963–2000. Final Report” (1984-04) credits Wassily Leontief as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984-04","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-nils-j-nilsson-nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income","subject":"nils-j-nilsson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"nilsson-1984-ai-employment-and-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence, Employment, and Income” (1984) credits Nils J. Nilsson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1984","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"}],"sources":[],"evidence":[],"at":{"entities":[565,579,874,894,906],"claims":[1302,1303,1318,1364,1365,1366,1394,1395,1422,1423,1445,1452,1453,2220,2284,2299],"sources":[],"evidence":[]},"version":"1lg47t7"}