{"entities":[{"id":"mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test","shortName":"McKinstry, Usefulness of the Turing Test (1994)","type":"document"},{"id":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","shortName":"Eder, Re: The Singularity (1994)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","shortName":"Hanson, If Uploads Come First (1994)","type":"document"},{"id":"dani-eder","name":"Dani Eder","type":"person"},{"id":"robin-hanson","name":"Robin Hanson","type":"person"},{"id":"christopher-mckinstry","name":"Christopher McKinstry","type":"person"}],"claims":[{"id":"ts-c1-mckinstry-1994-context","subject":"mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"behavioural-tests-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"McKinstry’s 1994 message grants that Turing tests have been criticised for rewarding tricks, and proposes using a conversational system as a fitness function for evolving virtual intelligences.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-12-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date header Thu, 29 Dec 1994 04:09:32, without a time zone; 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the archive file name is a later collection date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Evolutionary selection and further interaction, not a system improving its own capacity to improve."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-eder-1994-context","subject":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eder’s 1994 message describes a positive feedback between technology, population and educated researchers, and projects a sharp rise in available brainpower once computers reach human-brain capacity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date header as preserved in the relay (23 May 94 03:51:48 GMT, sci.nanotech); the relay lacks the Message-ID and transport headers, so the posting is not independently authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Population, educated researchers and technology reinforce each other, and computer capacity rises with hardware trends; no machine improves its own intelligence or design capacity.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-eder-1994-context","subject":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eder’s 1994 message forecasts human-brain-level computer capacity in about forty years.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date header as preserved in the relay (23 May 94 03:51:48 GMT, sci.nanotech); the relay lacks the Message-ID and transport headers, so the posting is not independently authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A peak in the rate of progress and a forty-year arrival forecast, without a transition period after human-level AI.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a5-eder-1994-context","subject":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eder’s 1994 message discusses automating the manufacture of computer chips to lower their cost.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date header as preserved in the relay (23 May 94 03:51:48 GMT, sci.nanotech); the relay lacks the Message-ID and transport headers, so the posting is not independently authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Automating chip production lowers costs; manufacture is not AI research.","attested":{"date":"1997-07-12","note":"Known only from the relay on Anders Sandberg’s web pages, captured by the Internet Archive on 1997-07-12."}}}},{"id":"ts-a6-hanson-1994","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s 1994 article argues that, if uploading comes before human-level AI, billions of copies of the first few dozen uploads could fill almost all labour niches, and that delaying uploading while hardware improves would strengthen that early advantage.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Third quarter 1994 on the printed footers; the issue’s contents page says September 1994."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Decisive-advantage branch, for the first uploads."}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1994-context","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s 1994 article discusses a sharp transition once uploads arrive.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Third quarter 1994 on the printed footers; the issue’s contents page says September 1994."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp upload transition is discussed, but no period of hours to months from human level to far superhuman AI."}}},{"id":"ts-b6-hanson-1994-context","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"control-or-purpose-specification"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s 1994 article argues that full social integration of uploads makes a coordinated revolt less likely than segregation or slavery would, and adds that a similar argument applies to AIs capable of wanting to revolt.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Third quarter 1994 on the printed footers; the issue’s contents page says September 1994."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Integration is proposed to reduce the risk of revolt; the article neither asserts that people could not direct, correct or stop machines nor denies that control could be lost."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-b","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “If Uploads Come First: The crack of a future dawn” (1994-03-08) bears on G01. If copying uploads is fast and cheap, their population could outgrow total wealth, lowering per-copy wealth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". The printed issue was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States that the population of uploads grows faster than wealth; does not state that the growth rate of total output rises.","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). An essay in a magazine (Extropy 6:2, 1994), scholarly in form (abstract, numbered notes, references), that argues an economic model of wages and population; but in 1994 the author held no economics degree or appointment, and no economics affiliation is shown on the page. His later record as an economist does not count for this text."}}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first-a","subject":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “If Uploads Come First: The crack of a future dawn” (1994-03-08) articulates G07. If brain emulations can be copied cheaply and selection favours those willing to work for little, copying continues until wages approach subsistence. Names human wages explicitly, for the period in which the upload population expands.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-03-08","basis":"publication","note":"Date line on the web reprint; the page states the article \"originally appeared in Extropy 6:2 (1994)\". The printed issue was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"1998-02-20","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the web reprint (hanson.berkeley.edu). The printed 1994 wording was not compared."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (changed from 1 under the maintainer decision of 2026-10-12: an author's standing as an economist is judged when the text was written). 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His later record as an economist does not count for this text."},"conditions":"Uploads can be copied fast and cheaply; values evolve under selection; copying is not forcibly prevented."}}},{"id":"ap-dani-eder-eder-1994-re-the-singularity","subject":"dani-eder","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"eder-1994-re-the-singularity"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The mailing-list message “Re: The Singularity (Eder)” (1994-05-23) is sent under the name Dani Eder.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-05-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-1994-if-uploads-come-first"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“If Uploads Come First: The Crack of a Future Dawn” (1994) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-christopher-mckinstry-mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test","subject":"christopher-mckinstry","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"mckinstry-1994-usefulness-turing-test"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The mailing-list message “Usefulness of the Turing Test” (1994-12-29) is sent under the name Christopher McKinstry.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1994-12-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"}],"sources":[],"evidence":[],"at":{"entities":[279,281,282,875,884,898],"claims":[832,833,834,846,847,848,849,850,851,1249,1282,2221,2246,2288],"sources":[],"evidence":[]},"version":"1lg47t7"}