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1998-06-22 in UTC and in the archive receipt)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Safety traded for competitive advantage."}}},{"id":"ts-a6-sandberg-1998-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-06-23-sandberg","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"race-compression"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandberg’s reply of 1998-06-23 asks whether an above-human-level AI with nasty goals would have a decisive advantage in a world with many human-level AIs, and says its author has seen no believable analysis showing it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-06-23","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: 23 Jun 1998 14:18:15 +0200 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Questions the decisive-advantage premise.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that a more intelligent AI would gain a decisive advantage: greater intelligence does not always outsmart lesser, as defeated generals show, a lone superintelligence may lose to many opponents, and risk-taking is itself subject to rational limits."}}}},{"id":"ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1998-09-07, quoting extracts of the author’s page on the Singularity, says that once a seed AI understands its own architecture, it can design new abilities for itself and dramatically optimise old ones.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1998-09-07 says that more intelligence makes it possible for a seed AI to better optimise its own code.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2209-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2209","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 1998-09-07 expects a bottleneck followed by a sharp snap upwards that passes human intelligence rapidly before halting at a level sufficient for rapid infrastructure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 23:24:22 -0500 (sender-local date); archive receipt Mon Sep 7 22:24:20 1998 MDT."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A sharp snap upwards that passes human level rapidly, without a period of hours to months."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2212","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s announcement of 1998-09-07 gives Coding a Transhuman AI the alternative titles \"Notes on the Design of Self-Enhancing Intelligences\" and \"The Art of Seed AIs\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 22:17:50 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"seed AI","missing":"The message names the new page by its titles; it does not state the concept."}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-1998-09-07-2212-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2212","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s announcement of 1998-09-07 gives Coding a Transhuman AI the alternative title \"Notes on the Design of Self-Enhancing Intelligences\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Mon, 07 Sep 1998 22:17:50 -0500 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A title naming self-enhancing intelligences; the message describes no mechanism."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-catai","subject":"coding-a-transhuman-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Coding a Transhuman AI defines a seed AI by self-enhancement: smarter AIs become more capable of rewriting their own code, and the fundamental object of a seed AI is to enhance the ability to enhance abilities. Recorded as articulating the proposition “Seed AI”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Announced on the Extropians list on 1998-09-07 (messages 2209 and 2212); the page states \"Copyright ©1998\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-01-26","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the capture of 2001-01-26; earlier captures are redirects to uncaptured pages, and the \"temporary edition\" may have been revised."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-catai","subject":"coding-a-transhuman-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Coding a Transhuman AI defines a seed AI by self-enhancement: smarter AIs become more capable of rewriting their own code, and the fundamental object of a seed AI is to enhance the ability to enhance abilities. Recorded as articulating the proposition “Recursive self-improvement”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Announced on the Extropians list on 1998-09-07 (messages 2209 and 2212); the page states \"Copyright ©1998\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2001-01-26","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the capture of 2001-01-26; earlier captures are redirects to uncaptured pages, and the \"temporary edition\" may have been revised."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-1998-09-10-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-09-10-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s message of 1998-09-10 says that history suggests future increases in growth rates, but is far from supporting the sudden \"AI gods in a few weeks\" scenarios proposed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-10","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 10 Sep 1998 10:19:36 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that AI progress comes in a few big insights that allow a sudden jump: progress depends on many small insights, and history shows sharp changes in growth rates, not in levels."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-vinge-1998-09-16","subject":"extropians-1998-09-16-vinge","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Vinge’s text, forwarded by Robin Hanson on 1998-09-16, gives a taxonomy in which the singularity does not happen, or \"We have a hard takeoff\", or \"We have a soft takeoff\", and rates AI as having a high possibility of a hard takeoff.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-16","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header of Robin Hanson’s forwarding message: Wed, 16 Sep 1998 09:38:11 -0700. Vinge’s text gives an estimate as of 15 September; the forwarding date does not date the whole composition."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation","earliest-located-term"],"register":"relay","term":"hard takeoff"}}},{"id":"ts-a1-hanson-1998-09-24-contests","subject":"extropians-1998-09-24-hanson","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s reply of 1998-09-24 to Yudkowsky says there has long been positive feedback, and that neither feedback nor the ability to redesign AI architectures obviously suggests a break with history.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 24 Sep 1998 09:51:22 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Contests the inference from feedback to a break with history.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that positive feedback and the ability to redesign AI architectures imply a runaway: both have existed for a long time without a break with history."}}}},{"id":"ts-a3-hanson-1998-09-24-context","subject":"extropians-1998-09-24-hanson","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s reply of 1998-09-24 says positive feedback and the ability to redesign AI architectures are long-standing and do not obviously suggest a break with history.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 24 Sep 1998 09:51:22 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It accepts that feedback and the ability to redesign AI architectures are long-standing and disputes only that they imply a break with history, which concerns speed (A1, A4) rather than self-improvement."}}},{"id":"ts-a1-more-1998-contests","subject":"more-1998-singularity-meets-economy","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Max More’s comment says that Vinge, like Good, expects an immediate intelligence explosion leading to a total transformation of the world, doubts both assumptions, and finds a move straight from human-level AI to drastically superintelligent thinkers doubtful. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Intelligence explosion”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998","basis":"publication","note":"Comments collected in 1998; a message of 1998-09-07 quotes another paragraph of More’s comment."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Doubts an immediate explosion and a total transformation.","attested":{"date":"2000-08-17","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the earliest capture of the page, of 2000-08-17."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that human-level AI leads immediately to drastically superhuman intelligence: fast minds still need experiments and cooperation, and human-level cognitive scientists have not raised their own intelligence."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-more-1998-contests","subject":"more-1998-singularity-meets-economy","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Max More’s comment says that Vinge, like Good, expects an immediate intelligence explosion leading to a total transformation of the world, doubts both assumptions, and finds a move straight from human-level AI to drastically superintelligent thinkers doubtful. Recorded as contesting the proposition “Fast or hard takeoff”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998","basis":"publication","note":"Comments collected in 1998; a message of 1998-09-07 quotes another paragraph of More’s comment."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Doubts an immediate move to drastically superintelligent thinkers.","attested":{"date":"2000-08-17","note":"The quoted wording is attested by the earliest capture of the page, of 2000-08-17."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that the move from human-level to drastically superhuman intelligence is short: fast minds still need experiments and the cooperation of slower minds, so the improvements may take years or decades."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153-c","subject":"extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Singularity: AI Morality” (1998-12-06) contests Y04. Replying to Nick Bostrom, who proposed building a moral system with particular values into an AI, he argues that a simple built-in value such as human survival, with a rigid definition, can have unforeseen and horrific consequences (the passage goes on to describe endless confinement).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-12-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-12-06\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want."}}}},{"id":"yk-y10-extropians-1998-09-18-yudkowsky-2487-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-18-yudkowsky-2487","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"diminishing-returns-to-intelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Singularity: The Moore's Law Argument” (1998-09-18) contests Y10. Replying to Robin Hanson's critique of the 'Moore's Law argument', he concedes that the 'Recursive Moore's Law' section of 'Staring Into the Singularity' was an illustration, not a technical argument, but maintains that technologically enhanced intelligence creates positive feedback.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-18","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-18\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that returns to reinvesting cognitive gains in further cognitive improvement diminish."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-extropians-1998-09-08-yudkowsky-2235-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-08-yudkowsky-2235","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Human AI to superhuman (Re: Max More)” (1998-09-08) contests Y11. In the September 1998 Extropians debate on the Singularity, replying to Robin Hanson's argument from historical experience, he argues that a self-enhancing seed AI follows a series of sharp breakthroughs and bottlenecks, and that positive feedback makes even smooth curves sharp.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-08\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 08 Sep 1998 14:22:05 -0500."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-15-yudkowsky-2411","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: AI Prime Directive” (1998-09-15) contests Y15. Rob Harris argued that an AI not programmed to want or need anything would do nothing spontaneously and so would be safe; he agrees that rebellion is an anthropomorphic stereotype but answers that such an AI would do nothing at all, since every choice requires a goal, so an AI needs at least one goal.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-15","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-15\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 15 Sep 1998 09:20:52 -0500."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153-c","subject":"extropians-1998-12-06-yudkowsky-2153","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Singularity: AI Morality” (1998-12-06) contests Y17. In the same reply to Nick Bostrom, who urged taking as many precautions as time allows before a Singularity, he says the forces driving toward it are too large to divert, so trying to slow it would only get us run over.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-12-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-12-06\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Sun, 06 Dec 1998 12:13:25 -0600."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt), even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2171-c","subject":"extropians-1998-09-07-yudkowsky-2171","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Singularity, Breaker of Dreams” (1998-09-07) contests Y19. In the essay-length post 'Singularity, Breaker of Dreams', he recalls that his earlier certainty that superintelligent Powers would be ethical had meant he expected to survive and be upgraded, and says he now accepts that humans might be taken apart for their atoms without posing any threat, simply for efficiency.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1998-09-07","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1998-09-07\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". 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