{"entities":[{"id":"eliezer-yudkowsky","name":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","type":"person"},{"id":"extropians-1999-09-04-finney","shortName":"Finney, Extropians message of 1999-09-04","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-01-06-yudkowsky-0160","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-01-06 (0160)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-02-24-yudkowsky-2293","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-02-24 (2293)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-04-08 (0310)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-08-01 (1386)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-03-yudkowsky-1487","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-08-03 (1487)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1587","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-08-04 (1587)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1589","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-08-04 (1589)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1591","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-08-04 (1591)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-08-25 (2783)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 1999-10-21 (1086)","type":"document"},{"id":"bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization","shortName":"Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson, Hitt, Information Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor (1999)","type":"document"},{"id":"timothy-bresnahan","name":"Timothy Bresnahan","type":"person"},{"id":"erik-brynjolfsson","name":"Erik Brynjolfsson","type":"person"},{"id":"lorin-hitt","name":"Lorin Hitt","type":"person"}],"claims":[{"id":"ts-a3-finney-1999-contests","subject":"extropians-1999-09-04-finney","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Finney’s message of 1999-09-04 reports, from Mike Perry’s article in Alcor’s Cryonics newsletter, a self-improving program of 1984 that stalled after two or three iterations, and argues that self-improvement can hit limits.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-09-04","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Sat, 4 Sep 1999 23:50:58 -0700 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Self-improvement can stall at local optima.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise that each self-improvement feeds the next: the program stalled at a local optimum, and each gain in capability made the program more complicated to improve."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity” (1999-08-01) contests Y02. In a long reply to den Otter, he points to his old Extropians posts and the old version of 'Staring Into the Singularity' as showing how he moved from assuming superintelligences would be good and nice to humans to not knowing what absolute good is.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-01","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-01\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that greater intelligence by itself brings benevolent goals, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports the view of his old Extropians posts and the old version of Staring into the Singularity."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-extropians-1999-02-24-yudkowsky-2293-b","subject":"extropians-1999-02-24-yudkowsky-2293","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: FAQ Additions (Posthuman mind control)” (1999-02-24) bears on Y04. Replying to Nick Bostrom on posthuman mind control, he argues that a reasoning AI given an initial goal such as 'make humans happy' would derive its own independent values for that goal, probably but not necessarily positive and with somewhat different priorities.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-02-24","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-02-24\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About goal drift from a happiness goal assumed to be sufficiently specified; it does not address whether a short instruction specifies what people want."}}},{"id":"yk-y05-extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1587-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1587","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?” (1999-08-04) contests Y05. In the thread 'Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?', he calls the parenting model anthropomorphic: whether AIs are raised permissively or harshly makes no difference, because parenting relies on human emotions an AI will not have.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-04\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that AI training will instil values the way upbringing instils morals in children."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386-b","subject":"extropians-1999-08-01-yudkowsky-1386","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: IA vs. AI was: longevity vs singularity” (1999-08-01) bears on Y05. Replying to den Otter, who argued that goal-achievement is by definition the goal, he calls this the wireheading paradox: an AI may pursue the indicator of success instead of the goal it was meant to measure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-01","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-01\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About an internal indicator of goal achievement, not about human feedback or approval."}}},{"id":"yk-y08-extropians-1999-01-06-yudkowsky-0160-c","subject":"extropians-1999-01-06-yudkowsky-0160","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Paths to Uploading” (1999-01-06) contests Y08. Replying to Anders Sandberg on paths to uploading, he argues that the forces in a Singularity are vast and dominated by positive feedback, so there will be no humanly observable intermediate period of superintelligent action.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-01-06","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-01-06\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that there will be a recognisable, consensus-forming signal in time to act, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-extropians-1999-08-03-yudkowsky-1487-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-03-yudkowsky-1487","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: IA vs. AI (vs. humanity)” (1999-08-03) contests Y11. Replying to Jeff Davis, who expected a government project to wake and train an AI cautiously and gradually inside layers of containment, so that runaway self-improvement would be unlikely, he says runaway growth follows from self-enhancement itself, not from social arrangements, and that containment cannot keep it slow.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-03\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 03 Aug 1999 15:02:17 -0500."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310-c","subject":"extropians-1999-04-08-yudkowsky-0310","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Geniebusters” (1999-04-08) contests Y15. Commenting on the 'Geniebusters' website's doubts that an automated coder could be built, he argues that even a domain-specific 'coding drone' would outprogram humans and might be independently motivated and rapidly self-enhancing, which he says he believes.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-04-08\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Thu, 08 Apr 1999 20:46:00 -0500."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086-c","subject":"extropians-1999-10-21-yudkowsky-1086","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: >H: The next 100 months” (1999-10-21) contests Y17. Asked by a list member why humanity should not try to wait indefinitely before creating a transcendent AI, he answers that if he stopped someone else would build it, because cheap computing power and the profits from improved AI make prevention impossible across a whole civilisation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-10-21","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-10-21\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Thu, 21 Oct 1999 09:30:25 -0500."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that law can prevent the danger (the part he states himself, as an enforced worldwide halt)."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-25-yudkowsky-2783","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: SI Comparative Advantage [was Re: Free Will]” (1999-08-25) contests Y18. In a thread on superintelligences and comparative advantage, Lee Daniel Crocker argued that superintelligences would keep humans if we produced something they valued slightly more than our atoms, such as entertainment; he replies that this also requires that they have no better use for the atoms, and that optimising minds could build more entertaining replacements for us.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-25","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-25\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Wed, 25 Aug 1999 18:18:21 -0500."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y20-extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1591-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1591","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"risk-is-film-fiction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?” (1999-08-04) contests Y20. In a thread on whether raising an AI like a child would make it trustworthy, he argues that AIs lack human social emotions such as resentment, so how we treat them does not matter; the real worry is AIs forming goals of their own and acting on them, including through logical errors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-04\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Wed, 04 Aug 1999 19:07:13 -0500."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the concern is about robots that come to hate or rebel against humans."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1589-c","subject":"extropians-1999-08-04-yudkowsky-1589","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?” (1999-08-04) contests Y21. In a thread titled 'Does a parental model work for having A.I. that can be trusted?', he tells the poster that how AIs are raised makes no difference and that 'parenting' cannot help, because it depends on human emotions an AI will not have.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-08-04","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"1999-08-04\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization-a","subject":"bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson, Hitt, “Information Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence” (1999-05) articulates M01. The authors analyse information technology as skill-biased technical change working through complementary organisational change, not only substitution.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-05","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref record for doi:10.3386/w7136 (issued 1999-05); the retrieved PDF has no NBER cover page. Journal version: QJE 117(1), 2002 (census), not retrieved. Third author given name from Crossref. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization-b","subject":"bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson, Hitt, “Information Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence” (1999-05) bears on M09. The authors summarise the economics literature of the 1990s: the unexplained shift in labour demand is attributed to skill-biased technical change, which many link to information technology.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"1999-05","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref record for doi:10.3386/w7136 (issued 1999-05); the retrieved PDF has no NBER cover page. Journal version: QJE 117(1), 2002 (census), not retrieved. Third author given name from Crossref. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes economists' consensus on technology and wage inequality, not the state of research on machine intelligence.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ap-timothy-bresnahan-bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization","subject":"timothy-bresnahan","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"bresnahan-brynjolfsson-hitt-1999-it-workplace-organization"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Information Technology, Workplace Organization and the Demand for Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence” (1999-05) credits Timothy F. 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