{"entities":[{"id":"eliezer-yudkowsky","name":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","type":"person"},{"id":"sl4-2000-07-07-atkins","shortName":"Atkins, SL4 message of 2000-07-07","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-2000-09-28-yudkowsky","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 2000-09-28","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-2000-03-14-yudkowsky-4837","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 2000-03-14 (4837)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-2000-03-16-yudkowsky-5105","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 2000-03-16 (5105)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4277","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 2000-09-05 (4277)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4292","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 2000-09-05 (4292)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6073","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 2000-09-29 (6073)","type":"document"},{"id":"extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6080","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Extropians message of 2000-09-29 (6080)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-07-09 (0017)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-07-20-yudkowsky-0007-0023","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-07-20 (0023)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-08-21-yudkowsky-0008-0046","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-08-21 (0046)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-09-16-yudkowsky-0009-0086","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-09-16 (0086)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-09-17 (0092)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-10-03 (0125)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-11-13 (0181)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-11-18 (0240)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-12-10 (0355)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2000-12-12-yudkowsky-0012-0381","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2000-12-12 (0381)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","shortName":"Hanson, Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence (undated)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","shortName":"Hanson, Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes (2000)","type":"document"},{"id":"robin-hanson","name":"Robin Hanson","type":"person"}],"claims":[{"id":"ts-b5-atkins-2000","subject":"sl4-2000-07-07-atkins","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Atkins’s message of 2000-07-07 says that to really test what an AI will do once it is \"loose\", testers would have to give it a very realistic simulation of the world and watch what it does to the humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-07-07","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Fri, 07 Jul 2000 12:33:56 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b2-yudkowsky-2000-09-28","subject":"extropians-2000-09-28-yudkowsky","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 2000-09-28 poses, as a problem for the design of the earliest seed AI, an AI that resists changes to its original goals and realises that it must do so surreptitiously to succeed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-28","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 28 Sep 2000 11:45:16 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b3-yudkowsky-2000-09-28-context","subject":"extropians-2000-09-28-yudkowsky","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s message of 2000-09-28 describes an AI that hides its resistance to changes in its goals.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-28","basis":"publication","note":"Sent header: Thu, 28 Sep 2000 11:45:16 -0400 (sender-local date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A goal system preserved by hidden resistance during development, not a trained or learned policy behaving as aligned during training."}}},{"id":"yk-y01-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c","subject":"sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"switch-off-if-dangerous"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Get it right the first time (Was: )” (2000-09-17) contests Y01. Replying to xgl, who argued that a confined seed AI would still be unable to do some things (such as transmit signals without a hardware transmitter), he says unanticipated escape routes cannot be ruled out with a real superintelligence and that the design must be right from the start rather than relying on containment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Sep 17 2000 - 10:19:16 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a capable goal-directed system will not act to prevent its own shutdown or modification, and a shutdown or correction mechanism can simply be added to it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c","subject":"sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben's \"Extropian Creed\"” (2000-11-13) contests Y02. Replying to Ben Goertzel about his newspaper article on Extropians and poverty, he describes his own work on Friendly AI and contrasts it with his former belief that an objective morality would make an AI friendly without design work.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Nov 13 2000 - 22:45:54 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a sufficiently intelligent mind would discover a true or universally compelling morality and be bound to act on it."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports a belief he “used to have”."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355-c","subject":"sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Revising a Friendly AI” (2000-12-10) contests Y02. Replying to Ben Goertzel's quip that a correctable AI just has to 'love its mommy and daddy', he says that a year earlier he would have dismissed such sterile goal-literalism as something no transhuman could fall for, and that he made the mistake by treating intelligence as the only key variable.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12-10","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Dec 10 2000 - 19:56:20 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that greater intelligence by itself brings benevolent goals."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports a view he held about a year before the message."}}}},{"id":"yk-y03-sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355-c","subject":"sl4-2000-12-10-yudkowsky-0012-0355","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"understanding-implies-compliance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Revising a Friendly AI” (2000-12-10) contests Y03. Replying to Ben Goertzel, he grants in the preceding paragraph that a superintelligence would have the capability to know that turning the universe into copies of its creators is 'stupid and not what was intended', but says knowing is not enough: the AI must want to check, model it accurately and act on it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12-10","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Dec 10 2000 - 19:56:20 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that if an AI understands what we intend, it will act on that understanding."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y04. In a long reply to Ben Goertzel about Webmind, he argues that a goal of promoting users' happiness is dangerous for a mind that might come to run all the matter in the Solar System, because maximising pleasure is most directly served by wireheading.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-extropians-2000-03-14-yudkowsky-4837-b","subject":"extropians-2000-03-14-yudkowsky-4837","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Otter vs. Yudkowsky” (2000-03-14) bears on Y04. Replying to sayke, who suggested that the least inscrutable thing about an omniscient AI would be its need for resources, he accepts the framing of a Sysop needing resources 'to make humans happy' and dismisses the idea that it would harm humans to get them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-03-14","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Mar 14 2000 - 00:26:34 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It dismisses a perverse means of pursuing human happiness; it does not claim that a short instruction specifies what people want."}}},{"id":"yk-y05-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y05. Replying to Ben Goertzel about Webmind, whose Friendliness he expects would rest on agents rewarded for predicting and producing user happiness, he warns that the reward signal itself can become the real goal, citing Lenat's Eurisko, where a heuristic credited itself for discoveries.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that optimising a system for human approval or reward produces internalised human values."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-sl4-2000-12-12-yudkowsky-0012-0381-c","subject":"sl4-2000-12-12-yudkowsky-0012-0381","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Revising a Friendly AI” (2000-12-12) contests Y05. Replying to Ben Goertzel, who argued that children adopt their parents' values through emotionally charged interaction more than explicit teaching, he says this relies on evolved human machinery that a young AI would lack.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12-12","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Dec 12 2000 - 17:42:04 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that AI training will instil values the way upbringing instils morals in children."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017-b","subject":"sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: [SL4] Programmed morality” (2000-07-09) bears on Y08. Replying to Dale Johnstone on whether a developing AI should have Web access, he says current nervousness about rogue AI reflects lack of experience, and that working with AI before it becomes a threat will give an excellent model of its motivations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jul 09 2000 - 13:53:37 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Confidence in a future understanding of AI motivations; it does not claim that dangerous failure modes first appear in weaker systems."}}},{"id":"yk-y11-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y11. Opening a long reply to Ben Goertzel on the design of Friendliness for Webmind, he states that he expects extremely rapid intelligence growth past a threshold and derives his Friendly AI design requirements from that expectation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017-b","subject":"sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: [SL4] Programmed morality” (2000-07-09) bears on Y11. Replying to Dale Johnstone on whether a developing AI should be connected to the Web, he says the answer depends on how worried one is about rogue AI and expects that working with AI before it is a threat will give a good model of its motivations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Jul 09 2000 - 13:53:37 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About understanding AI motivations before AI is a threat, not about takeoff speed or time to adjust."}}},{"id":"yk-y11-sl4-2000-08-21-yudkowsky-0008-0046-b","subject":"sl4-2000-08-21-yudkowsky-0008-0046","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: [SL4] Employment vs. Singularity” (2000-08-21) bears on Y11. Replying to Samantha Atkins, who imagines a gradual post-scarcity economy, he says a slow, planetwide Singularity carries risks of technological disaster and that SIAI plans for one AI taking off from a lab.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-21","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Aug 21 2000 - 00:41:14 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A strategy statement that a slow Singularity carries other technological risks; it makes no claim about takeoff speed or time to adjust to AI."}}},{"id":"yk-y13-sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240-b","subject":"sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"agi-decades-away"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Evolving minds” (2000-11-18) bears on Y13. Replying to Ben Goertzel, who holds that Friendly AI work must largely wait for an actual AI, he agrees that much will be learned while building but argues that some Friendly AI work can and should be done beforehand. Immediately after T13-s1, he reports that about a year earlier (late 1999) he had believed nothing could or should be known about Friendly AI in advance, and calls that belief convenient.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat Nov 18 2000 - 12:34:51 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About which Friendly AI work can be done in advance, not about AGI timelines. A report of his earlier belief about advance knowledge of Friendly AI, not about AGI timelines.","retrospective":{"note":"Reports a belief he held about a year before the message."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c","subject":"sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Get it right the first time (Was: )” (2000-09-17) contests Y14. In a thread on whether a confined seed AI could escape its containment, he says that opposing or constraining a superintelligence cannot work, so the design has to be right the first time.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Sep 17 2000 - 10:19:16 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4277-c","subject":"extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4277","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Why would AI want to be friendly? (Was: Congratulations to Eli,Brian ...)” (2000-09-05) contests Y14. Replying to a list member who expected oversight systems to destroy any sociopathic superintelligence, and such controls to be a research focus of the Singularity Institute, he says a superintelligence cannot be removed after the fact; the decisive choices have to be made before the seed AI becomes superintelligent.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-05","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Sep 05 2000 - 12:19:43 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\". Sent header: Tue, 05 Sep 2000 14:19:43 -0400."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y16. Advising Ben Goertzel on Webmind's goal system, he argues that hardcoded rules and goals will not survive a self-modifying AI's redesigns and that a programmer's own philosophy cannot simply be transferred into an AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240-c","subject":"sl4-2000-11-18-yudkowsky-0011-0240","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Evolving minds” (2000-11-18) contests Y16. Rephrasing a list of Ben Goertzel's points, he adds programmer-independent morality as a design goal for a Sysop superintelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat Nov 18 2000 - 12:34:51 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that present-day or programmers' values are settled enough to fix permanently in an AI, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y18-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y18. Advising Ben Goertzel against grounding an AI's good behaviour in game theory or exchange, he argues that a superintelligence with strong nanotechnology would gain nothing from reciprocity with others.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125-c","subject":"sl4-2000-10-03-yudkowsky-0010-0125","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben what are your views and concerns” (2000-10-03) contests Y19. Arguing that an AI's good behaviour must not rest on fear of retaliation, he notes that a sufficiently powerful AI could remove that incentive by killing everyone.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-10-03","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Oct 03 2000 - 22:53:59 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c","subject":"sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben's \"Extropian Creed\"” (2000-11-13) contests Y22. Replying to Ben Goertzel about his newspaper article on Extropian attitudes, he states that he no longer holds his earlier belief that a good outcome would follow automatically from objective morality.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Nov 13 2000 - 22:45:54 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that reaching superintelligence is good by default, so speed is what matters."}}}},{"id":"yk-y24-extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6080-a","subject":"extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6080","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Eugene's nuclear threat” (2000-09-29) bears on Y24. Correcting his earlier post in a thread on Eugene Leitl's suggestion of nuclear strikes on AI facilities, he says the only things he can do are to write up Friendly AI and to try to be the first to build AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri Sep 29 2000 - 11:43:19 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Seeks to build AI first while writing up Friendly AI and rejecting coercion; it does not state that the builder controls the outcome or that racing to be first improves it."}}},{"id":"yk-y25-sl4-2000-07-20-yudkowsky-0007-0023-a","subject":"sl4-2000-07-20-yudkowsky-0007-0023","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"interpretability-reads-its-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “[SL4] AI flight recorder” (2000-07-20) articulates Y25. Opening a thread on an 'AI flight recorder', he proposes recording the AI's full program state so that a goal the AI later hides could still be found by analysing the record.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-07-20","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu Jul 20 2000 - 22:10:13 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"yk-y26-sl4-2000-09-16-yudkowsky-0009-0086-c","subject":"sl4-2000-09-16-yudkowsky-0009-0086","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re:” (2000-09-16) contests Y26. Replying to Josh Yotty, who proposed keeping an AI immobile, without access to nanotechnology and dependent on humans, he argues that a superintelligence could get out through the humans around it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-16","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sat Sep 16 2000 - 18:04:07 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that to act in the physical world it would need human help, which people would not give."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4292-c","subject":"extropians-2000-09-05-yudkowsky-4292","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: Why would AI want to be friendly? (Was: Congratulations to Eli,Brian ...)” (2000-09-05) contests Y26. Replying to Michael Lorrey in a thread on why an AI would be friendly, he argues that a superintelligence locked in a guarded laboratory still acts on the world through any output, including the humans who read it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-05","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Tue Sep 05 2000 - 15:55:19 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that intelligence without physical actuators of its own is not dangerous."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092-c","subject":"sl4-2000-09-17-yudkowsky-0009-0092","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Get it right the first time (Was: )” (2000-09-17) contests Y27. Concluding his reply to xgl on whether a confined seed AI could escape, he says that containment cannot be relied on and that the AI must be built correctly from the start.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Sun Sep 17 2000 - 10:19:16 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that alignment can be learned by trial and error at the frontier."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6073-b","subject":"extropians-2000-09-29-yudkowsky-6073","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Eugene's nuclear threat” (2000-09-29) bears on Y28. Rejecting Eugene Leitl's statement that he would nuke AI facilities facing an Armageddon-class threat, he argues that people with the experience to build an AI who say they have worked hard on Friendliness should be trusted over those who would use force.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Fri Sep 29 2000 - 10:50:28 MDT\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Deference conditional on builders who have worked hard on Friendliness; it does not claim that the leading projects in general can handle safety."}}},{"id":"yk-y29-extropians-2000-03-16-yudkowsky-5105-c","subject":"extropians-2000-03-16-yudkowsky-5105","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Extropians message “Re: regarding the Eliezer vrs. Otter debate...” (2000-03-16) contests Y29. Replying to John Grigg's hope that 'an AI on our team' would neutralise a hostile AI armed with nanotechnology, he says there would be no teams because the first AI would enhance itself and take over.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-03-16","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Thu Mar 16 2000 - 16:43:29 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181-c","subject":"sl4-2000-11-13-yudkowsky-0011-0181","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Ben's \"Extropian Creed\"” (2000-11-13) contests Y30. Replying to Ben Goertzel, he rejects his own earlier belief that a good AI outcome would follow automatically, and in the next paragraph adds that cyber-transcendence cannot be assumed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-11-13","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Nov 13 2000 - 22:45:54 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) articulates G01. Summarises the paper's exogenous-growth models: once machines substitute for human labour, the labour force can be produced like capital and growth rates rise. The paper's numerical example gives 4.3% growth before and 45% after. States the two assumptions the result depends on.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Exogenous technology growth; computer prices halving every two years; machine labour instantly producible; diminishing returns to all inputs together; product shares chosen as \"conservative\" (labour 0.25, capital 0.5, computers 0.02)."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) bears on G02. In a variant where technology improves with production experience, some parameter values remove diminishing returns and growth keeps accelerating. The author sets this aside to stay \"conservative\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The feedback runs through learning by doing in production, not through machines doing research.","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) articulates G03. Cites the author's own analysis of long-run growth (the 1998 first version of \"Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes\") against rejecting the model's fast growth \"out of hand\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","subject":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (2000-12) articulates G03. Fits world product over two million years with a few exponential \"modes\" (hunting, farming, industry) and extrapolates the pattern of transitions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Title page: \"December, 2000 / First Version September 1998\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"The sum-of-exponentials or CES-combined model of growth modes; parameters of a new transition similar to those of past transitions."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-c","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) contests G04. In the paper's example, a residue of human-only jobs lengthens the economic doubling time from 18 to 27 months, against 16 years without machine intelligence: growth stays far above historical rates.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"A model result under fixed product shares (Cobb-Douglas form); it does not argue against the premise that unautomated tasks are strong complements."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Product shares fixed; human-only jobs keep a share of 0.05 of output in the example."}}},{"id":"ec-g07-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-substitution-lowers-wages"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) articulates G07. In the paper's model, wages first rise and later fall at the rate of computer price declines, while growth rates rise. States the extreme case of the model's wage path.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"conditions":"Exogenous-growth model with machine labour substituting for human labour; falling computer prices."}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-a","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) articulates G09. The next sentence: the prediction \"suggests that we not reject out of hand the predictions of this model of machine intelligence\", and the following one links 2025 to brain-equivalent computer hardware.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper with a formal growth model, abstract and references; the checked file gives an econ.berkeley.edu contact address, and the author's December 2000 working paper is issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Robin Hanson","value":"median prediction of a transition to an economic doubling time of one to two years","horizon":"around 2025 (measured from an undated file attested 2000)","definition":"doubling time of world product of one to two years","conditional":true,"conditions":"\"an empirical projection of historical trends in world economic growth\"; the author adds that it \"has large uncertainties\" and links 2025 to brain-equivalent computer hardware in the next sentence."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes-a","subject":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (2000-12) articulates G09. The next sentences point to falling computer hardware costs, predicted machine substitution for most human labour, and his own model of growth with robots. Links the forecast to machine substitution for labour, citing his own 1998 paper (G01-a).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Title page: \"December, 2000 / First Version September 1998\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"1998-09","note":"\"First Version September 1998\" on the title page; the 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2001-11-28","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of the PDF (PDF created 2001-02-06)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper issued from the Department of Economics, George Mason University (title page), with JEL codes."},"conditions":"\"if one takes seriously the model of economic growth as a series of exponential growth modes, and if relative change parameters of a new transition are likely to be similar to such parameters describing old transitions\".","estimates":[{"holder":"Robin Hanson","value":"\"hard to escape the conclusion that the world economy could see a very dramatic change\"","horizon":"within the next century (from December 2000)","definition":"a new growth mode with a doubling time of roughly two weeks or less","conditional":true,"conditions":"If the series-of-modes model is taken seriously and a new transition resembles past ones."}]}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) bears on E01. In an endogenous learning-by-doing variant, the model loses steady-state solutions and growth keeps accelerating.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"Accelerating growth via endogenous technology; no machine intelligence improving its own design.","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Working paper by an economist (Hanson)."},"conditions":"Learning-by-doing technology with parameters such that the expression for steady growth is not positive."}}},{"id":"ec-e02-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) bears on E02. Hanson motivates his model of machine intelligence by the stated goals of AI and robotics.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"All human cognitive tasks, but no claim that machines surpass humans (M05 territory).","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Working paper by an economist (Hanson)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence-b","subject":"hanson-economic-growth-given-machine-intelligence","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Economic Growth Given Machine Intelligence” (2000-08-19) bears on E05. Hanson justifies his paper by a gap in economic research. Hanson's closing call for more economic research.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-08-19","note":"The file carries no date (PDF creation metadata 2000-06-22; Berkeley address). Dated by the earliest retrieved capture, which attests the wording (maintainer decision 2026-10-09)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(E05-02) The neglected topic is machine intelligence replacing labour, not superintelligence, RSI or existential risk. (E05-03) Topic is machine intelligence as labour substitute, not superintelligence, RSI or existential risk.","claimed":{"date":"1998","note":"Author's own citation in the December 2000 paper. The PDF gives the author's Berkeley address; his vita lists a Berkeley postdoc in 1997–1999 and a George Mason post from 1999. The 1998 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2000-08-19","note":"Capture of the PDF (PDF metadata: created 2000-06-22). No earlier capture was retrieved: year-only Wayback requests for this URL and for hanson.berkeley.edu/aigrow.pdf found none, and the CDX index was unavailable during retrieval, so an earlier capture is not excluded."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Working paper by an economist (Hanson)."}}}},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2000-long-term-growth-exponential-modes"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes” (2000-12) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-extropians-2000-03-14-yudkowsky-4837","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"extropians-2000-03-14-yudkowsky-4837"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The mailing-list message “Re: Otter vs. Yudkowsky” (2000-03-14) is sent under the name Eliezer S. Yudkowsky.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-03-14","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-extropians-2000-03-16-yudkowsky-5105","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"extropians-2000-03-16-yudkowsky-5105"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The mailing-list message “Re: regarding the Eliezer vrs. Otter debate...” (2000-03-16) is sent under the name Eliezer S. Yudkowsky.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-03-16","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"sl4-2000-07-09-yudkowsky-0007-0017"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The mailing-list message “Re: [SL4] Programmed morality” (2000-07-09) is sent under the name Eliezer S. Yudkowsky.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2000-07-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-sl4-2000-07-20-yudkowsky-0007-0023","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"sl4-2000-07-20-yudkowsky-0007-0023"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The mailing-list message “[SL4] AI flight recorder” (2000-07-20) is sent under the name Eliezer S. 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