{"entities":[{"id":"eliezer-yudkowsky","name":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","type":"person"},{"id":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Recursive Self-Improvement (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Hard Takeoff (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-what-core-argument","shortName":"Hanson, What Core Argument? (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-above-average-ai-scientists","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Above-Average AI Scientists (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-fighting-a-rearguard-action-against-the","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Fighting a Rearguard Action Against the Truth (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-magical-categories","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Magical Categories (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-no-universally-compelling-arguments","shortName":"Yudkowsky, No Universally Compelling Arguments (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord","shortName":"Yudkowsky, That Tiny Note of Discord (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-ghosts-in-the-machine","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Ghosts in the Machine (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-the-magnitude-of-his-own-folly","shortName":"Yudkowsky, The Magnitude of His Own Folly (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement","shortName":"Yudkowsky, The Rhythm of Disagreement (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Dreams of Friendliness (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2008-what-i-think-if-not-why","shortName":"Yudkowsky, What I Think, If Not Why (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"sl4-2008-02-11-yudkowsky-0802-17621","shortName":"Yudkowsky, SL4 message of 2008-02-11 (17621)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-ai-go-foom","shortName":"Hanson, AI Go Foom (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-setting-the-stage","shortName":"Hanson, Setting the Stage (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","shortName":"Hanson, Wrapping Up (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-friendliness-factors","shortName":"Hanson, Friendliness Factors (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-emulations-go-foom","shortName":"Hanson, Emulations Go Foom (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2008-friendly-projects-vs-products","shortName":"Hanson, Friendly Projects vs. Products (2008)","type":"document"},{"id":"li-juanzi","name":"Li Juanzi","type":"person"},{"id":"robin-hanson","name":"Robin Hanson","type":"person"}],"claims":[{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-rsi","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s post of 2008-12-01 says that at some point AI development is likely to see a fast, local increase in capability, \"AI go FOOM\", and that fast means weeks or hours rather than years or decades.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong posting time 2008-12-01T20:49:11Z of the imported Overcoming Bias post."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-2008-rsi","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s post of 2008-12-01 says recursion is what happens when you hand an AI the object-level problem of redesigning its own cognitive algorithms.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong posting time 2008-12-01T20:49:11Z of the imported Overcoming Bias post."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s post of 2008-12-02 defines recursive self-improvement as an AI rewriting its own cognitive algorithms, which \"closes the loop\", and argues that it either peters out or goes FOOM.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong posting time 2008-12-02T20:44:26Z of the imported Overcoming Bias post."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a5-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-automated-ai-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s post of 2008-12-02 compresses its argument into the slogan that it would be really odd if Moore’s Law stayed exponential with the improving computers doing the research.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong posting time 2008-12-02T20:44:26Z of the imported Overcoming Bias post."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky’s post of 2008-12-02 calls recursive self-improvement the sharpest break with the past contributing to the notion of a \"hard takeoff\", also called \"AI go FOOM\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong posting time 2008-12-02T20:44:26Z of the imported Overcoming Bias post."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Named, without a period."}}},{"id":"ts-a2-hanson-2008-core-argument-contests","subject":"hanson-2008-what-core-argument","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s post summarises Yudkowsky’s scenario of a seed AI growing within roughly a week from unimportant to strong enough to take over the world, and rejects that growth rate as far beyond what most AI researchers, growth economists or other specialists would estimate.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12","basis":"publication","note":"The current Overcoming Bias page shows 11 December 2008 and MIRI’s 2013 collection prints 10 December 2008; recorded at month precision while the difference is unresolved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Rejects the growth rate of the week-long seed-AI scenario.","missing":"Names a seed AI architecture only to dispute how fast it could grow; it neither asserts nor disputes an initial AI designed to improve its own design.","attested":{"note":"Wording checked in the current re-hosted page and in MIRI’s 2013 collection; no 2008 capture was compared."}}}},{"id":"ts-a4-hanson-2008-core-argument-contests","subject":"hanson-2008-what-core-argument","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson’s post summarises Yudkowsky’s scenario of a single AI growing within roughly a week from unimportant to strong enough to take over the world, and rejects that growth rate as far beyond what most AI researchers, growth economists or other specialists would estimate.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12","basis":"publication","note":"The current Overcoming Bias page shows 11 December 2008 and MIRI’s 2013 collection prints 10 December 2008; recorded at month precision while the difference is unresolved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Rejects the growth rate of the week-long seed-AI scenario.","attested":{"note":"Wording checked in the current re-hosted page and in MIRI’s 2013 collection; no 2008 capture was compared."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons against the premise of a week-long transition to world-dominating capability: the growth rate exceeds specialists’ estimates and historical trends, and the supporting growth math leaves out diminishing returns."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-lw-2008-no-universally-compelling-arguments-c","subject":"lw-2008-no-universally-compelling-arguments","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “No Universally Compelling Arguments” (2008-06-26) contests Y02. After arguing that compulsion is a property of minds rather than of arguments, he names as a failure mode the hope that any AI will inevitably derive the right morality without it being programmed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-26","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a sufficiently intelligent mind would discover a true or universally compelling morality and be bound to act on it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y02-lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord-c","subject":"lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-brings-benevolence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “That Tiny Note of Discord” (2008-09-23) contests Y02. Recapping his 2008 autobiographical series, he states that his 1997 self believed any superintelligence would automatically do what is right, and names the flaw in that belief.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-23","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that greater intelligence by itself brings benevolent goals."},"retrospective":{"from":"1997","until":"1997","note":"Reports the belief of “Eliezer1997”."}}}},{"id":"yk-y03-lw-2008-ghosts-in-the-machine-b","subject":"lw-2008-ghosts-in-the-machine","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"understanding-implies-compliance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Ghosts in the Machine” (2008-06-17) bears on Y03. Against the intuition that programming an AI is like instructing a human servant who interprets the instructions, he argues that nothing in the machine evaluates the code from outside it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-17","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It denies an inner interpreter of instructions; it does not address whether an AI that understands intentions acts on them."}}},{"id":"yk-y04-lw-2008-what-i-think-if-not-why-c","subject":"lw-2008-what-i-think-if-not-why","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “What I Think, If Not Why” (2008-12-11) contests Y04. In a list of his positions written during the 2008 exchange with Robin Hanson, he states that verbal instructions of this kind cannot specify an AI's values.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-11","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y04-lw-2008-magical-categories-c","subject":"lw-2008-magical-categories","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"short-instruction-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Magical Categories” (2008-08-24) contests Y04. After showing that training data for 'smile' or 'good' fits many concepts, he names the error of expecting a short word to convey the whole intended category.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-08-24","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short instruction such as 'make people happy' specifies what we want."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement-c","subject":"lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Rhythm of Disagreement” (2008-06-01) contests Y07. Recounting a suggestion to build a question-answering Oracle AI and ask it about Friendly AI, he argues that the Oracle would need its own goal system and a full meta-ethics, so it is no simpler than the Friendly AI it is meant to help with.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI weak enough to be safe is strong enough to solve alignment."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-sl4-2008-02-11-yudkowsky-0802-17621-c","subject":"sl4-2008-02-11-yudkowsky-0802-17621","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The SL4 message “Re: Investing in FAI research: now vs. later.” (2008-02-11) contests Y07. Replying to Vladimir Nesov in a thread on investing in Friendly AI research now or later, he argues by analogy with AI-completeness that having an AI build Friendly AI from an English request is as hard as Friendly AI itself.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-02-11","basis":"publication","note":"Archive author index lists the message as \"Mon Feb 11 2008 - 15:52:05 MST\" under \"Eliezer S. Yudkowsky\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI weak enough to be safe is strong enough to solve alignment."}}}},{"id":"yk-y10-yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement-c","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"diminishing-returns-to-intelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Recursive Self-Improvement” (2008-12-01) contests Y10. In the Hanson–Yudkowsky FOOM debate, he argues that recursive self-improvement makes a moderate, human-paced trajectory unlikely: a smooth outcome would need diminishing returns tuned exactly right.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that returns to reinvesting cognitive gains in further cognitive improvement diminish."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff-c","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-hard-takeoff","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Hard Takeoff” (2008-12-02) contests Y11. Lists sources of discontinuity besides recursive self-improvement, here a hardware overhang: computers already far faster serially than neurons would be used for thinking once the algorithms are found.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that capability gains will be gradual and visible."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement-c","subject":"lw-2008-the-rhythm-of-disagreement","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Rhythm of Disagreement” (2008-06-01) contests Y15. Recounts his answer to Nick Bostrom's question whether an AI that only answers questions could be built and asked about Friendly AI. Argues that such an AI still needs goals and is not simpler than a Friendly AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-06-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness-c","subject":"lw-2008-dreams-of-friendliness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Dreams of Friendliness” (2008-08-31) contests Y15. Answers the proposal, stated in the preceding paragraph, that a question-answering AI 'wouldn't need any goals at all'. Argues that producing superintelligent answers requires powerful optimisation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-08-31","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-lw-2008-fighting-a-rearguard-action-against-the-b","subject":"lw-2008-fighting-a-rearguard-action-against-the","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Fighting a Rearguard Action Against the Truth” (2008-09-24) articulates Y22 in retrospect. His 2008 account of his earlier self states that the 1996–2000 aim was speed to any superintelligence, and his next paragraph supplies the premise: the assumption that movement toward superintelligence was 'a pure good without a hint of danger'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-24","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","retrospective":{"from":"1996","until":"2000","note":"Reports the strategy of “Eliezer1996-2000”."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-lw-2008-the-magnitude-of-his-own-folly-c","subject":"lw-2008-the-magnitude-of-his-own-folly","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Magnitude of His Own Folly” (2008-09-30) contests Y22. Explicitly rejects his earlier full-speed strategy. He says his childhood technophilia broke when he understood that a failed superintelligence project could kill everyone, however good the arguments for proceeding.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-30","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that reaching superintelligence is good by default, so speed is what matters."},"retrospective":{"note":"Reports his earlier plan to proceed at full speed."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-lw-2008-above-average-ai-scientists-b","subject":"lw-2008-above-average-ai-scientists","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Above-Average AI Scientists” (2008-09-28) bears on Y28. Recalling a meeting with the funded head of a corporate AGI project who turned out to be a creationist, he says he stopped assuming that AGI researchers met the standard the problem required.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-28","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About the absence of any entry bar to starting an AGI project, not about the competence of the most advanced projects.","retrospective":{"note":"Reports an undated meeting after which he stopped assuming that AGI researchers met the standard the problem required."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord-b","subject":"lw-2008-that-tiny-note-of-discord","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “That Tiny Note of Discord” (2008-09-23) articulates Y30 in retrospect. In an autobiographical series, he reports his 1997 belief that any superintelligence would automatically do what was right, which supplies the default-good premise through a metaethical argument, and in the same paragraph identifies the flaw in that argument.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-09-23","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt of an imported Overcoming Bias post (Overcoming Bias date)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","retrospective":{"from":"1997","until":"1997","note":"Reports the belief of “Eliezer1997”."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-2008-ai-go-foom-a","subject":"hanson-2008-ai-go-foom","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “AI Go Foom” (2008-11-20), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E01. Hanson summarises Yudkowsky's argument \"as best I can, so I can then respond\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-20","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the original Overcoming Bias page (retrieved 2026-10-15): Visible date \"Nov 20, 2008\"; datePublished 2008-11-20T03:00:00+00:00. The compilation heading \"10 November 2008\" is wrong: the post quotes \"Setting the Stage\" (18 November 2008) and sits between posts of 20 and 21 November. The old URL http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/11/ai-go-foom.html redirects here (recorded by the GPT check); the 2008 page itself was not retrieved. The wording was checked in the MIRI compilation of 2013."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-2008-setting-the-stage-b","subject":"hanson-2008-setting-the-stage","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Setting the Stage” (2008-11-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E01. Hanson summarises points of agreement and disagreement with Yudkowsky at the start of the debate.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Puts a low probability on one hand-coded system going suddenly from nearly powerless to overwhelmingly powerful; it does not deny that AI improving AI could accelerate capability growth.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-c","subject":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Wrapping Up” (2008-12-07), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, contests E01. Hanson's objection to Yudkowsky's \"growth math\"; he repeats it in \"What Core Argument?\" (10 December 2008).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Accepts that feedback loops can in principle yield accelerating growth and argues that diminishing returns and other factors normally mute them."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement-a","subject":"yudkowsky-2008-recursive-self-improvement","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Yudkowsky, “Recursive Self-Improvement” (2008-12-01), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E01. Yudkowsky's statement of the claim Hanson contests; the post notes that Hanson \"objected to the 'local' part\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-hanson-2008-setting-the-stage-b","subject":"hanson-2008-setting-the-stage","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Setting the Stage” (2008-11-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E03. First item in Hanson's list of points on which he and Yudkowsky \"seem to agree\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Risk is not specified as extinction or loss of control and is not placed in an economic analysis.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-b","subject":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Wrapping Up” (2008-12-07), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E03. Hanson argues that property-rights institutions protect humans in his preferred emulation scenario.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns emulations rather than misaligned AI; it argues that extermination is unlikely and puts no risk into a welfare or policy analysis.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-friendliness-factors-a","subject":"hanson-2008-friendliness-factors","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Friendliness Factors” (2008-11-16), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E04. Hanson lists competition factors (info leaks, shared standards, anti-trust, sharing deals) that affect how far a winner leads.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-16","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-emulations-go-foom-b","subject":"hanson-2008-emulations-go-foom","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Emulations Go Foom” (2008-11-22), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E04. Hanson's scenario of competing whole-brain-emulation (\"bot\") projects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The race is analysed for leads and dominance; the safety or control of the systems is not discussed here.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-friendly-projects-vs-products-a","subject":"hanson-2008-friendly-projects-vs-products","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Friendly Projects vs. Products” (2008-12-05), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E04. Hanson separates \"project friendliness\" (how race winners treat losers) from \"product friendliness\" (whether creations rebel). Hanson qualifies his claim that developers have strong incentives to avoid rebellious creations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-05","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-a","subject":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Wrapping Up” (2008-12-07), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, articulates E04. Hanson proposes liability and insurance for AI developers as the institutional answer to the friendliness problem.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-hanson-2008-wrapping-up-b","subject":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Wrapping Up” (2008-12-07), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E04. Hanson on why Yudkowsky's concern feels urgent.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-07","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A counterfactual about regulation, not an analysis of developers' incentives.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hanson-2008-setting-the-stage-b","subject":"hanson-2008-setting-the-stage","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Setting the Stage” (2008-11-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E05. Hanson states that his position in the foom debate rests on growth economics.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-11-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes Hanson's own method, not whether economics engaged with the topic.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hanson-2008-what-core-argument-b","subject":"hanson-2008-what-core-argument","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “What Core Argument?” (2008-12-10), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E05. Hanson contrasts Yudkowsky's foom (about sixty doublings in about a week) with specialist estimates.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12-10","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"An unsourced assertion about specialists' likely estimates, not a record of economists' engagement.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"lg-cn-li-juanzi-tsinghua-professor-2008","subject":"li-juanzi","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tsinghua"},"topic":"people","statement":"Zhipu’s Hong Kong prospectus of 30 December 2025 states that Li Juanzi has been a tenured professor in Tsinghua University’s Department of Computer Science and Technology since December 2008.","time":{"kind":"interval","from":"2008-12","note":"Start at month precision as stated; the biography gives no end date. Snapshot document dated 30 December 2025."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"tenured professor, Department of Computer Science and Technology"}},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2008-what-core-argument","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2008-what-core-argument"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“What Core Argument?” (2008-12) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-positive-negative-factor-global-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk” (2008) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2008","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-sl4-2008-02-11-yudkowsky-0802-17621","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"sl4-2008-02-11-yudkowsky-0802-17621"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The mailing-list message “Re: Investing in FAI research: now vs. later.” (2008-02-11) is sent under the name Eliezer S. 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