{"entities":[{"id":"eliezer-yudkowsky","name":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","type":"person"},{"id":"andrew-ng","name":"Andrew Ng","type":"person"},{"id":"lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Reply to Holden on 'Tool AI' (2012)","type":"document"},{"id":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","shortName":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery (2012)","type":"document"},{"id":"quoc-le","name":"Quoc Le","type":"person"},{"id":"laurence-j-kotlikoff","name":"Laurence J. Kotlikoff","type":"person"},{"id":"jeffrey-d-sachs","name":"Jeffrey D. Sachs","type":"person"}],"claims":[{"id":"ng-brain-lead-2011-2012","subject":"andrew-ng","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"google-brain"},"topic":"people","statement":"Andrew Ng served as founding lead of the Google Brain project from 2011 to 2012.","time":{"kind":"interval","from":"2011","until":"2012","note":"The biographical source explicitly gives both years. No precise start/end days or later continuing role are inferred."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"Founding lead"}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai-c","subject":"lw-2012-reply-to-holden-on-tool-ai","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Reply to Holden on 'Tool AI'” (2012-06-12) contests Y15. Replies to Holden Karnofsky's 2012 proposal of 'tool AI' that displays plans instead of acting. Argues that specifying such a system formally reintroduces optimisation over the user and the world, with unintended consequences.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system that only outputs answers or plans, leaving humans to act on them, is safe."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-a","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) articulates M01. 'Smart machines' enter the model as machinery whose efficiency parameter u rises, a factor-augmenting technical change in a nested CES production function with unskilled and skilled labour.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."},"conditions":"Machines and unskilled labour combine in a CES intermediate; the intermediate combines with skilled labour; u is machine efficiency."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-b","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) bears on M02. The abstract describes the model's mechanism: smart machines substitute for unskilled labour and complement skilled labour.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Substitution is between factors (machines and unskilled labour) in a CES function, not machines taking over tasks within a task framework.","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-a","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) articulates M06a. The authors argue, against the Cobb-Douglas presumption that technical change raises all factor returns, that better machines can lower unskilled wages.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."},"conditions":"Elasticity of substitution between machines and unskilled labour high relative to that between the intermediate and skilled labour."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-a","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) articulates M06b. Rejecting 'smashing the machines', the authors propose intergenerational tax-and-transfer policy (in the model, a wealth levy on the old funding transfers to the young) to make all generations gain.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."},"conditions":"Model illustration: unanticipated permanent rise in u from 1 to 10; government levies part of the machine stock and transfers its returns."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines-b","subject":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sachs and Kotlikoff, “Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) bears on M09. The authors characterise their profession as reluctant to treat machines as competitors for labour; elsewhere (pdf p. 7) they attribute this to the record of real wage growth and reliance on Cobb-Douglas production functions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2012\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns machines and automation in general, not machine intelligence as a research topic; no claim about when the field engaged it.","attested":{"date":"2013-01","note":"The cover lists \"December 2012, January 2013\"; the retrieved PDF may be the January 2013 revision, so its wording is attested from 2013-01 only."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); both authors economists."}}}},{"id":"lg-gw-le-google-experiments-2012","subject":"quoc-le","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"google"},"topic":"people","statement":"Google’s blog post of 26 June 2012 by Jeff Dean and Andrew Ng states that the large-scale neural-network experiments it reports were led by Quoc Le.","time":{"kind":"snapshot","date":"2012-06-26","note":"Publication date of the post. Not a start date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"led the large-scale neural-network experiments reported at ICML 2012"}},{"id":"ap-laurence-j-kotlikoff-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","subject":"laurence-j-kotlikoff","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) credits Laurence J. Kotlikoff as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2012-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-jeffrey-d-sachs-sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines","subject":"jeffrey-d-sachs","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"sachs-kotlikoff-2012-smart-machines"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Smart Machines and Long-Term Misery” (2012-12) credits Jeffrey D. 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