{"entities":[{"id":"miri","shortName":"MIRI","type":"organisation"},{"id":"eliezer-yudkowsky","name":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","type":"person"},{"id":"iem-2013","shortName":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they","shortName":"Yudkowsky, After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you (2013)","type":"document"},{"id":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","shortName":"Frey and Osborne, The Future of Employment (2013)","type":"document"},{"id":"hanson-2013-foom-debate-again","shortName":"Hanson, Foom Debate, Again (2013)","type":"document"},{"id":"carl-benedikt-frey","name":"Carl Benedikt Frey","type":"person"},{"id":"robin-hanson","name":"Robin Hanson","type":"person"},{"id":"michael-a-osborne","name":"Michael A. Osborne","type":"person"}],"claims":[{"id":"miri-iem-2013","subject":"miri","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"iem-2013"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"MIRI published Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics as technical report 2013-1.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","note":"The date identifies this documented announcement or publication; it does not establish a continuing state."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"yudkowsky-iem-2013","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"iem-2013"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","note":"The date identifies this documented announcement or publication; it does not establish a continuing state."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"iem-cites-good-2013","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"cites","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"good-1965"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics explicitly cites and discusses Good’s 1965 paper.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","note":"The date identifies this documented announcement or publication; it does not establish a continuing state."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"iem-discusses-explosion-2013","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"discusses","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics examines Good’s intelligence-explosion thesis through cognitive reinvestment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","note":"The date identifies this documented announcement or publication; it does not establish a continuing state."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"lineage-iem-cites-chalmers","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"cites","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"chalmers-singularity"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics cites Chalmers’s 2010 philosophical analysis.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Publication year only; inspected report last modified 2013-09-13."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"lineage-iem-credits-good","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"explicitly_credits","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ij-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics attributes its opening quoted intelligence-explosion argument to Good.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Publication year only; inspected report last modified 2013-09-13."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ts-a1-iem","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"intelligence-explosion"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics identifies the key issue as returns on cognitive reinvestment: the ability to turn more computing power, faster computers or better algorithms into cognitive labour that produces larger or faster brains or better mind designs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"The report states \"Last modified September 13, 2013\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a3-iem","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recursive-self-improvement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics analyses the returns on reinvesting cognitive gains in better mind designs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"The report states \"Last modified September 13, 2013\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-iem","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics argues that an AI that can reinvest the fruits of its intelligence in larger brains, faster processing and better algorithms should have growth curves sharply above human ones, the regime colloquially called hard takeoff.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"The report states \"Last modified September 13, 2013\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["most-developed"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"yk-y08-lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they-c","subject":"lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you” (2013-06-13) contests Y08. Rejects forecasts of the form 'after event W, everyone will see X and endorse policy Z'; one of his worked examples is the expectation that more sophisticated AI will make society take Friendly AI seriously.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-06-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that there will be a recognisable, consensus-forming signal in time to act."}}}},{"id":"yk-y10-iem-2013-c","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"diminishing-returns-to-intelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” (2013-09-13) contests Y10. Cites the hominid record as evidence against diminishing returns on cognitive improvement, and goes on to infer that researchers improving their own intelligence 'ought to go FOOM'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"Report states \"Last modified September 13, 2013\"; first released April 2013."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that returns to reinvesting cognitive gains in further cognitive improvement diminish."}}}},{"id":"yk-y19-iem-2013-c","subject":"iem-2013","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” (2013-09-13) contests Y19. Summarising the instrumental convergence thesis, he states that harm to humans can follow from generic resource-seeking strategies without any goal of harming them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"Report states \"Last modified September 13, 2013\"; first released April 2013."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-b","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) bears on M01. The authors judge the routine/non-routine task framework inadequate for machine learning and mobile robotics and add engineering-bottleneck dimensions drawn from computer science.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Neither clearly ordinary technical-change analysis (it revises the task model's premises about what computers can do) nor a separate category for machine cognition (computer capital remains an input at a falling price).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-a","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) articulates M02. Extending the Autor-Levy-Murnane task model, the authors argue that machine learning lets computer capital substitute for labour in non-routine as well as routine tasks, limited only by perception/manipulation, creative and social-intelligence bottlenecks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."},"conditions":"Computer capital supplied perfectly elastically at a falling price; workers reallocate by comparative advantage."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-b","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) bears on M05. The authors claim near-universal technical automatability beyond the engineering bottlenecks, but expect workers to move into tasks requiring creative and social intelligence (pdf p. 45).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Bottleneck tasks (creative and social intelligence) are assumed to remain with labour; no claim about cost of machines in all tasks or in newly created tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-a","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) articulates M07. The authors estimate occupations' susceptibility to computerisation by matching engineering bottleneck variables in O*NET task descriptions with a classifier trained on hand-labelled occupations. The headline estimate: 47 percent of US employment falls in occupations with high probability of computerisation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-b","subject":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) bears on M09. The authors present their estimate as filling a gap in the literature on recent technological progress and employment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"September 17, 2013\". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A gap claim about one kind of quantification, not a description of the field as new.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hanson-2013-foom-debate-again-b","subject":"hanson-2013-foom-debate-again","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Foom Debate, Again” (2013-02-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E01. Hanson restates his position in 2013, granting the novelty of self-modification while doubting that it produces a foom.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-02-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A concession that intentional mind redesign could matter, followed at once by \"seems unlikely to generate foom\".","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hanson-2013-foom-debate-again-b","subject":"hanson-2013-foom-debate-again","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hanson, “Foom Debate, Again” (2013-02-18), in “The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate”, bears on E05. Hanson argues that growth economics, not newly invented categories, should frame the intelligence-explosion question.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-02-18","basis":"publication","note":"Post date from the post’s heading in the MIRI compilation of 2013, where the wording was checked; the original page was not retrieved."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says economics should frame the topic; does not say whether it has.","tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Blog debate (2008 Overcoming Bias posts) between an economist and a non-economist: tier 2 as an online debate; the maintainer confirmed tier 2 for the debate on 2026-10-12."}}}},{"id":"ap-carl-benedikt-frey-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","subject":"carl-benedikt-frey","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) credits Carl Benedikt Frey as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2008-ai-go-foom","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2008-ai-go-foom"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“AI Go Foom” (2013) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2008-setting-the-stage","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2008-setting-the-stage"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Setting the Stage” (2013) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2008-wrapping-up","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2008-wrapping-up"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Wrapping Up” (2013) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2011-debating-yudkowsky","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2011-debating-yudkowsky"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Debating Yudkowsky” (2013) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2013-foom-debate-again","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2013-foom-debate-again"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Foom Debate, Again” (2013) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2008-friendliness-factors","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2008-friendliness-factors"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Friendliness Factors” (2013) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2008-emulations-go-foom","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2008-emulations-go-foom"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Emulations Go Foom” (2013) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-robin-hanson-hanson-2008-friendly-projects-vs-products","subject":"robin-hanson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hanson-2008-friendly-projects-vs-products"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Friendly Projects vs. Products” (2013) credits Robin Hanson as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-michael-a-osborne-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment","subject":"michael-a-osborne","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) credits Michael A. Osborne as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-09-17","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lw-2013-after-critical-event-w-happens-they"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“After critical event W happens, they still won't believe you” (2013-06-13) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2013-06-13","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"}],"sources":[],"evidence":[],"at":{"entities":[11,19,23,420,563,595,879,884,909],"claims":[19,20,21,22,224,225,934,935,936,1041,1053,1115,1307,1320,1367,1440,1455,1488,1547,2225,2254,2255,2256,2257,2258,2259,2260,2261,2302,2451],"sources":[],"evidence":[]},"version":"1lg47t7"}