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not the source-access date or proof of implementation."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"atlas-alphago-rl","subject":"alphago-zero-account","predicate":"discusses","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"reinforcement-learning"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The AlphaGo Zero account describes reinforcement learning through repeated self-play and search.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10-18","note":"Date on the inspected publication; not the source-access date or proof of implementation."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"atlas-vaswani-attention","subject":"ashish-vaswani","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"attention-all-you-need"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Ashish Vaswani is a credited co-author of Attention Is All You Need v1.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-06-12","note":"Date on the inspected publication; not the source-access date or proof of implementation."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"atlas-deepmind-feedback","subject":"deepmind","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deepmind-feedback-account"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"DeepMind published its account of learning reward predictors from human feedback.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-06-12","note":"Date on the inspected publication; not the source-access date or proof of implementation."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"atlas-feedback-credits-openai","subject":"deepmind-feedback-account","predicate":"explicitly_credits","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"openai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"DeepMind’s human-feedback account credits its research collaboration with OpenAI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-06-12","note":"Date on the inspected publication; not the source-access date or proof of implementation."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"atlas-feedback-cites-paper","subject":"deepmind-feedback-account","predicate":"cites","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-preferences-paper"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"DeepMind’s human-feedback account links Deep reinforcement learning from human preferences.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-06-12","note":"Date on the inspected publication; not the source-access date or proof of implementation."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"yk-y08-lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial-c","subject":"lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence” (2017-10-13) contests Y08. Argues that, as with flight and nuclear fission, no event before AGI itself will create common knowledge that it is time to act, so waiting for such a signal means not acting.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that there will be a recognisable, consensus-forming signal in time to act."}}}},{"id":"yk-y13-lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial-c","subject":"lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"agi-decades-away"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence” (2017-10-13) contests Y13. His second reason why apparent distance does not license inaction; he then gives the Wright brothers' and Fermi's own pessimistic forecasts as examples. Argues that people who defer alignment work until an unspecified future signal are unlikely to respond competently when a signal comes.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can know that AGI is decades away, and against the premise that long timelines mean there is no need to act now."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates G01. With every task in goods production automated, the model becomes an AK model and ongoing productivity growth makes growth rates themselves rise over time (\"Type I\": growth rates rising without bound).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"Full automation of goods production; ongoing technological progress."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates G02. If an AI replaces all people in producing ideas and ideas build on earlier ideas, the model reaches infinite income in finite time.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"All tasks in idea production automated; returns to existing knowledge in idea production (φ) above zero."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-c","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) contests G02. If ideas become harder to find fast enough, even fully automated research does not produce a singularity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Targets the premise that automated idea production keeps sufficient returns; with strongly diminishing returns to search, growth need not explode."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates G04. The paper's organising theme, developed in its task-based models of automation. States the condition directly. The same example then shows that with Cobb-Douglas production a singularity can occur without full automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"(G04-c) Tasks are complements (elasticity of substitution below one). (G04-d) CES production across tasks with elasticity of substitution below one."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates G05. Gives physical limits, such as Carnot's theorem for energy conversion, as examples of essential inputs whose productivity cannot keep rising.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"NBER cover \"October 2017\"; the author-hosted PDF is \"October 10, 2017 – Version 1.0\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2018-12-14","note":"Earliest retrieved capture of a version with this wording (author-hosted Version 1.0); the NBER PDF capture is from 2021."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economists in a core economics series: NBER Working Paper; chapter in an NBER volume (University of Chicago Press)."},"conditions":"Some essential input subject to physical limits on productivity; tasks are complements."}}},{"id":"ec-m01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on M01. Places AI in a continuous history of automation from the steam engine to semiconductors, while noting AI may now reach non-routine cognitive tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Not a pre-2015 text; a 2017 statement of continuity between AI and earlier automation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates M02. Frames AI within a task-based automation model (building on Zeira 1998 and Acemoglu and Restrepo) in which tasks move from labour to capital.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox-a","subject":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brynjolfsson, Rock, Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) articulates M03. Argues that implementation lags, rather than false hopes, mismeasurement or redistribution, are the likeliest main explanation of the gap between AI expectations and slowing measured productivity. Concludes that AI breakthroughs have not yet diffused and their complementary changes depress measured productivity at first; the same conclusion calls AI the core of \"a new, economically important potential GPT\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox-b","subject":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brynjolfsson, Rock, Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) bears on M03. Formalises how unmeasured intangible AI-complementary investment first depresses and later inflates measured productivity growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The J-curve mechanism for intangible capital in general; AI is not named in the quoted words (the paper applies it to AI, see M03-01).","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Unmeasured intangible complementary investment; toy-economy illustration."}}},{"id":"ec-m03-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) bears on M03. One of three possibilities raised against the slow recent productivity record, alongside mismeasurement and a singularity-type discontinuity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States a possible delay but does not call AI a general-purpose technology here; offered as one of three alternatives.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m04-mullainathan-spiess-2017-machine-learning-econometric-b","subject":"mullainathan-spiess-2017-machine-learning-econometric","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Mullainathan and Spiess, “Machine Learning: An Applied Econometric Approach” (2017) bears on M04. Mullainathan and Spiess characterise machine learning as a prediction tool distinct from econometric parameter estimation, for use in empirical economics.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Treats prediction as what ML does methodologically, not as AI's economic function, and draws no consequences from a fall in its cost.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates M05. Models the case in which A.I. replaces people in all tasks to show how growth could explode; the authors then list objections (automation limits, search limits, Baumol bottlenecks).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Thought experiments: all tasks in goods production automated (AK growth) or in idea production automated (with φ > 0, a finite-time singularity). Automation is exogenous; the costs of machines versus labour are not modelled as a comparison of task-level prices."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on M05. Treats complete automation as an open, debated question and names incomplete automation as a bottleneck to explosive growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Leaves open whether machines can perform all essential tasks; neither asserts nor denies the possibility.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Conditional: if some essential tasks remain non-automated, the labour-free singularities do not occur."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates M05. Describes a transition in which falling machine costs make machines a cheaper substitute for all human labour; with frictionless capital adjustment the human wage may be unchanged while the labour share goes to zero.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Machine labour modelled as a perfect substitute for human labour; the cost of producing machines falls over time. The passage summarises the authors' companion paper (Korinek and Stiglitz 2017)."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on M06a. Argues that Baumol's cost disease can keep the labour share substantial even as automation advances.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A model in which the labour share stays substantial despite nearly complete automation; it does not state a fall for some workers, though the paper also notes a possible prolonged high-capital-share period.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Elasticity of substitution across tasks below one; automation exogenous; sufficient conditions for balanced growth with a constant capital share well below 100%."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates M06a. Concludes that without redistribution, AI and other worker-replacing change can lower both labour's share and workers' absolute welfare.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Absence of redistribution or full insurance against innovation risk."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates M06b. Ties the case for redistribution to the distributional losses of worker-replacing technological change. Argues that policy, including non-distortionary taxation, can compensate those who lose from AI, even in a singularity case. Names patent length and capital taxation as second-best redistribution instruments for losses from worker-replacing machines.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(M06b-11) \"Such intervention\" refers to full insurance or \"the right form of redistribution\" named in the preceding sentence. (M06b-12) Conditions stated in the body: e.g., a fixed, irreproducible factor that captures the gains and can be taxed without distortion; or low supply elasticity of capital for capital taxation. (M06b-13) Lump-sum transfers unavailable; capital supply elasticity sufficiently low."}}},{"id":"ec-m08-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox-b","subject":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brynjolfsson, Rock, Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) bears on M08. Illustrates that a single AI application could add about 0.17 percentage points a year to US labour productivity growth over a decade. Second worked example showing that individual AI applications could add measurably to aggregate labour productivity over about a decade.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M08-02) An illustrative calculation for one AI application (autonomous vehicles), not an estimate of AI's aggregate effect. (M08-03) An illustrative calculation for one application (call centres), not an aggregate estimate.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(M08-02) Assumes drivers needed for current workload fall from 3.5 million to 1.5 million out of 122 million private nonfarm employment, over a supposed 10-year transition; excludes complementary gains. (M08-03) Assumes AI handles 60–70% of calls and reduces call-centre workers (about 2.2 million in 2015) by 60%."}}},{"id":"ec-m09-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones, Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on M09. Presents the paper as agenda-setting for research on AI and growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Implies the agenda is still to be shaped but does not state that the topic was neglected.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox-b","subject":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Brynjolfsson, Rock, Syverson, “Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) bears on M09. Contrasts technologist optimism with the productivity pessimism the authors attribute to economists and statisticians, and argues both can be right.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Characterises economists' outlook on technology and growth, not the field's engagement with machine intelligence as a topic.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) bears on M09. Argues economists must say how gains from AI can be shared, not merely that they could be.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Criticises a habitual stance of economists rather than describing the field's engagement with AI as recent or neglected.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones and Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates E01. The authors model \"a unit of A.I. working to improve itself\" by a differential equation for cognitive productivity. The authors cite Good (1965), Vinge (1993) and Kurzweil (2005) and point to Nordhaus (2015) for an economic discussion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Self-improvement law dA/dt = A^(1+ω) for cognitive productivity, with ω > 0."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-c","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones and Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) contests E01. The authors list bottlenecks that could prevent a singularity even with complete automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Applies the idea-production parameter φ (fishing out) to the self-improvement equation itself."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial-b","subject":"hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hyytinen, “Ovatko hyvät johtamismenetelmät talouskasvun lähde? (pääkirjoitus)” (2017) bears on E01. Hyytinen defines the \"economic-growth singularity\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017","basis":"publication","note":"Issue 4/2017. The upload path (2017/12) suggests December but does not establish the publication month. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"AI accelerates general technological progress; no AI improving AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja is a core venue for the Finnish strand (maintainer decision of 2026-10-12), so tier 1 regardless of form. The editorial is signed by the journal's editor, an economics professor, and cites the economics literature (footnote 3)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-b","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones and Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) bears on E02. The authors note that their \"labor free\" singularities need complete automation of cognitive tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Human-level, not beyond-human, intelligence.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates E02. Korinek and Stiglitz open their speculative long-run section with expert forecasts (citing Bostrom 2014).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"If human-level AGI is reached."}}},{"id":"ec-e03-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) bears on E03. The footnote qualifies the authors' assumption that \"our social and economic system will be maintained\" after AGI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports AI-safety researchers' doom scenarios in a footnote; the main text assumes them away.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates E03. The authors discuss whether humans can keep property rights over AI entities. Drawing on Korinek (2017), the authors describe a Malthusian race between humans and autonomous AI entities.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(E03-05) If the intelligence gap between humans and super-intelligent AI entities grows too large. (E03-06) Humans do not or cannot assert ownership over AI entities; AI reproduction technology improves exponentially."}}},{"id":"ec-e04-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-b","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) bears on E04. The authors consider halting AI progress before turning to a human \"reservation\" policy.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Asks whether humanity should slow or halt AI progress; does not analyse developers' incentives.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth-a","subject":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Aghion, Jones and Jones, “Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) articulates E05. The abstract lists singularities and superintelligence among the questions for an economics research agenda.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2017\". Chapter in the NBER Economics of AI volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial-b","subject":"hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Hyytinen, “Ovatko hyvät johtamismenetelmät talouskasvun lähde? (pääkirjoitus)” (2017) bears on E05. Editorial in the Finnish economics association's journal; it calls the idea \"apparently improbable but interesting\" before turning to management practices.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017","basis":"publication","note":"Issue 4/2017. The upload path (2017/12) suggests December but does not establish the publication month. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns a growth singularity; no statement about economics' engagement with superintelligence or RSI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Kansantaloudellinen aikakauskirja is a core venue for the Finnish strand (maintainer decision of 2026-10-12), so tier 1 regardless of form. The editorial is signed by the journal's editor, an economics professor, and cites the economics literature (footnote 3)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution-a","subject":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Stiglitz, “Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) articulates E05. The authors justify taking up AGI in an economics paper. The authors flag the speculative nature of their AI-entity scenario.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"December 2017\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ap-philippe-aghion-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","subject":"philippe-aghion","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) credits Philippe Aghion as one of its 3 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-erik-brynjolfsson-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","subject":"erik-brynjolfsson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) credits Erik Brynjolfsson as one of its 3 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-ari-hyytinen-hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial","subject":"ari-hyytinen","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hyytinen-2017-kak-editorial"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Ovatko hyvät johtamismenetelmät talouskasvun lähde? (pääkirjoitus)” (2017) credits Ari Hyytinen as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-benjamin-f-jones-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","subject":"benjamin-f-jones","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) credits Benjamin F. Jones as one of its 3 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-charles-i-jones-aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth","subject":"charles-i-jones","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"aghion-jones-jones-2017-ai-and-economic-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence and Economic Growth” (2017-10) credits Charles I. Jones as one of its 3 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-anton-korinek-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","subject":"anton-korinek","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) credits Anton Korinek as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-daniel-rock-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","subject":"daniel-rock","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) credits Daniel Rock as one of its 3 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-joseph-e-stiglitz-korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution","subject":"joseph-e-stiglitz","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"korinek-stiglitz-2017-ai-income-distribution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence and Its Implications for Income Distribution and Unemployment” (2017-12) credits Joseph E. Stiglitz as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-chad-syverson-brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox","subject":"chad-syverson","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"brynjolfsson-rock-syverson-2017-productivity-paradox"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence and the Modern Productivity Paradox: A Clash of Expectations and Statistics” (2017-11) credits Chad Syverson as one of its 3 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lw-2017-theres-no-fire-alarm-for-artificial"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence” (2017-10-13) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2017-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"}],"sources":[],"evidence":[],"at":{"entities":[0,9,16,19,35,68,74,87,91,92,127,131,132,141,145,416,527,539,540,557,596,849,859,887,888,889,890,915,926,928],"claims":[197,198,199,200,201,202,203,204,205,206,207,286,287,295,296,297,309,314,315,316,1042,1073,1243,1250,1251,1267,1273,1310,1323,1339,1340,1341,1348,1372,1373,1374,1399,1400,1426,1446,1459,1460,1461,1492,1493,1494,1506,1507,1521,1522,1537,1549,1550,1551,2178,2198,2267,2268,2269,2273,2315,2330,2332,2458],"sources":[],"evidence":[]},"version":"1lg47t7"}