{"entities":[{"id":"eliezer-yudkowsky","name":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","type":"person"},{"id":"sam-mccandlish","name":"Sam McCandlish","type":"person"},{"id":"jan-leike","name":"Jan Leike","type":"person"},{"id":"amplification-paper","name":"Supervising strong learners by amplifying weak experts","type":"document"},{"id":"reward-modeling-paper","name":"Scalable agent alignment via reward modeling: a research direction","type":"document"},{"id":"paul-christiano","name":"Paul Christiano","type":"person"},{"id":"christiano-2018-takeoff-speeds","shortName":"Christiano, Takeoff speeds (2018)","type":"document"},{"id":"christiano-2018-minimal-circuits-daemon-free","shortName":"Christiano, Are minimal circuits daemon-free? 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Argues that the canonical factor-augmenting production function cannot represent automation's displacement of labour.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Not a pre-2015 text; characterises the canonical F(AL, BK) approach without dating particular texts.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Modeling Automation” (2018-05) bears on M01. 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Applies the task framework explicitly to AI and robotics, emphasising a displacement effect absent from factor-augmenting models.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Modeling Automation” (2018-05) bears on M02. 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The abstract sets the paper in a framework in which labour-performed tasks are automated while new labour-advantaged tasks are created, to examine concerns that labour will become redundant.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-b","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) bears on M03. Frames AI as the coming GPT and turns to policies to soften its displacement effects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Calls AI the new GPT but does not state that measured productivity gains lag adoption.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) articulates M03. Following the preceding paragraph's point that GPT co-invention \"is costly and slow\", infers that AI's productivity impact will lag, citing Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence” (2018-01) articulates M04. Treats AI as prediction technology and models how better prediction changes the value of judgment, the process of determining payoffs. Makes the fall in the cost of prediction the premise of the analysis. Draws the consequence of better prediction for a complement, human judgment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(M04-03) Stated as an assumption of the model. (M04-04) Single-agent decision model with a risky and a safe action; holds while judgment is not too difficult; in complex environments results depend on whether prediction enables automated decision-making."}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) articulates M04. Recasts machine learning as a fall in the price of prediction and asks how policy shapes its diffusion and consequences. Defines prediction and summarises the authors' programme on consequences of cheaper prediction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) bears on M05. Identifies new labour-intensive tasks as the main force offsetting automation and keeping growth balanced.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Assumes new tasks in which labour has comparative advantage; does not model machines performing new tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"New tasks are defined as ones where labour has comparative advantage relative to machines."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence” (2018-01) bears on M05. Notes that existing automation models (here Acemoglu and Restrepo 2017) rely on tasks that only labour can perform, and offers a prediction-based approach instead.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Identifies and questions the new-tasks assumption in existing models but does not itself model machines performing all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-b","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) bears on M05. Summarises a prevailing view that AI will perform most new tasks too, so net displacement will exceed past GPTs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports what the author calls \"the consensual view\" and \"the prevailing view\" at the conference; the author does not adopt it.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-c","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) contests M05. Concludes, from history, that human obsolescence is not to be presumed, while expecting many occupations to vanish.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Relies on the historical record of failed dismal prophecies; it does not address whether AI could perform newly created tasks more cheaply than labour."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment” (2018-06) articulates M05. A conditional model result: under a low relative cost of capital, all tasks (including those created later) end up automated; the abstract presents the alternative stable balanced-growth case as the other outcome.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."},"conditions":"Full model with endogenous capital accumulation and directed research toward automation and new tasks; full automation only if the long-run rental rate of capital relative to the wage is sufficiently low. Otherwise a stable balanced growth path in which automation and new tasks go together."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) articulates M06a. Even with offsetting forces, automation lowers the labour share.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Countervailing productivity, capital-accumulation and deepening effects present; absent new labour-intensive tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Modeling Automation” (2018-05) articulates M06a. Contrasts task automation with factor-augmenting change: the former always lowers the labour share.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-05","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AEA Papers and Proceedings (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task-based model; the abstract adds that automation \"can reduce the equilibrium wage (for realistic parameter values)\"."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment” (2018-06) articulates M06a. In the static model automation lowers employment and the labour share and may reduce wages, while new tasks push the other way.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER (core venue)."},"conditions":"Static version with fixed capital and exogenous technology; creation of new tasks has the opposite effects."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy-a","subject":"furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman and Seamans, “AI and the Economy” (2018-06) articulates M06a. Opens the labour-market policy section by noting that AI may worsen declining participation and rising inequality.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) articulates M06a. Gives a rising capital share as one of two reasons AI might increase inequality, with skill bias the other.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Conditional on AI being a new, efficient form of capital."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) bears on M06b. Attributes part of the productivity slowdown to automation pushed beyond the social optimum by the tax treatment of capital and labour-market rents.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Identifies a tax bias as a cause of excessive automation and slow productivity growth; it is not argued here as compensation for distributional effects.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-a","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) articulates M06b. Calls for policies (education, professionalising care work, steering technical change) to ameliorate AI's detrimental effects on displaced workers. Argues that mass displacement and ageing may require governments to manage transitions, not merely compensate losers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Conditional on AI triggering mass displacement alongside population ageing."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy-a","subject":"furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman and Seamans, “AI and the Economy” (2018-06) articulates M06b. Weighs UBI against EITC expansion and wage subsidies as responses to AI-related labour disruption, favouring the latter.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) articulates M06b. Concludes that AI's consequences for jobs, inequality and competition call for education policy, the safety net and antitrust.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) bears on M09. Opens the conclusion by saying the debate on automation and the future of work lacks a satisfactory framework, which the authors blame for a false dichotomy. The authors describe two sides of the debate, alarmist predictions of the end of work and economists' reassurance from history, and reject both as a false dichotomy.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-17) Self-description of a theoretical gap about automation and work; not a dated claim about when economists took up AI. (M09-18) Describes a view the authors attribute to many economists (and reject as one side of a false dichotomy); it is not the authors' own view and not a dated record.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt-b","subject":"trajtenberg-2018-ai-as-the-next-gpt","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trajtenberg, “AI as the Next GPT: A Political-Economy Perspective” (2018-01) bears on M09. Self-critique of economists' tendency to treat GDP growth as welfare and give only lip service to distribution. Says economics has traditionally neglected the direction of technical change, motivating the human-enhancing versus human-replacing distinction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"January 2018\". Chapter in the NBER volume (2019). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-19) Describes economists' neglect of losers from technical change, not of machine intelligence as a topic. (M09-20) Concerns the economics of technical change in general, not machine intelligence.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy-b","subject":"furman-seamans-2018-ai-and-the-economy","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman and Seamans, “AI and the Economy” (2018-06) bears on M09. Concludes that economic research on AI's productivity and labour effects has only begun and calls for more empirical work. Explains why the NBER volume's chapters rely on theoretical models and national statistics rather than firm-level data.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-21) A self-description of the research as early; not a dated record. (M09-22) Describes a data gap explaining the literature's reliance on theory and aggregate statistics; not a statement about when the field began.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-economic-policy-for-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence” (2018-06) bears on M09. Summarises economists' long-run optimism on jobs while stressing short-run adjustment costs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"June 2018\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Characterises economists' views on AI and jobs; says nothing about when the field took up AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-b","subject":"gans-2018-self-regulating-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Self-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence” (2018-02) bears on E01. After quoting Good and citing Yudkowsky (2007) and Omohundro (2007) on \"recursive self-improvement\", Gans recasts it in economic terms. Gans's main result: a paperclip AI refrains from activating power-accumulating successor AIs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2018\"; Crossref issued 2018-02. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"(E01-20) States the mechanism of self-improvement (building a better AI) without acceleration; the paper argues that a control problem limits it. (E01-21) Limits the creation of power-accumulating successors; the model still has the AI activate research-specialist AIs, so accelerating cognitive self-improvement is not contested.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."},"conditions":"Assumptions A1 and A2."}}},{"id":"ec-e03-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-a","subject":"gans-2018-self-regulating-agi","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Self-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence” (2018-02) articulates E03. Gans takes Bostrom's control problem and \"paperclip apocalypse\" into economic theory. Gans states the scope of his self-regulation result.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2018\"; Crossref issued 2018-02. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."},"conditions":"Assumptions A1 (an AI self-improves only by employing AIs with targeted goals) and A2 (improving power requires power-accumulation capabilities)."}}},{"id":"ec-e04-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-b","subject":"gans-2018-self-regulating-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Self-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence” (2018-02) bears on E04. Gans draws a governance implication from his model.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2018\"; Crossref issued 2018-02. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"Governance of AI property, not developers' incentives or competition.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-gans-2018-self-regulating-agi-a","subject":"gans-2018-self-regulating-agi","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Self-Regulating Artificial General Intelligence” (2018-02) articulates E05. Gans explains why he takes a different modelling route.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2018\"; Crossref issued 2018-02. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ap-daron-acemoglu-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work","subject":"daron-acemoglu","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-ai-automation-and-work"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Artificial Intelligence, Automation and Work” (2018-01) credits Daron Acemoglu as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-daron-acemoglu-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation","subject":"daron-acemoglu","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-modeling-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Modeling Automation” (2018-05) credits Daron Acemoglu as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-05","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-daron-acemoglu-acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine","subject":"daron-acemoglu","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"acemoglu-restrepo-2018-race-between-man-and-machine"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment” (2018-06) credits Daron Acemoglu as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2018-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-ajay-agrawal-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity","subject":"ajay-agrawal","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2018-prediction-judgment-complexity"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Prediction, Judgment and Complexity: A Theory of Decision Making and Artificial Intelligence” (2018-01) credits Ajay K. 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