{"entities":[{"id":"openai","name":"OpenAI","type":"organisation"},{"id":"paul-christiano","name":"Paul Christiano","type":"person"},{"id":"christiano-2019-what-failure-looks-like","shortName":"Christiano, What failure looks like (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"rlo-2019-introduction","shortName":"Hubinger et al., Risks from Learned Optimization: Introduction (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"rlo-2019-deceptive-alignment","shortName":"Hubinger et al., Deceptive Alignment (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","shortName":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, Artificial Intelligence (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","shortName":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, The Wrong Kind of AI (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","shortName":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, Automation and New Tasks (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","shortName":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning","shortName":"Stevenson, Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","shortName":"Furman, Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","shortName":"Cowen, Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep","shortName":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, Automation and New Tasks (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-jep","shortName":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, Artificial Intelligence (2019)","type":"document"},{"id":"baidu","name":"Baidu / 百度","type":"organisation"},{"id":"daron-acemoglu","name":"Daron Acemoglu","type":"person"},{"id":"ajay-agrawal","name":"Ajay Agrawal","type":"person"},{"id":"tyler-cowen","name":"Tyler Cowen","type":"person"},{"id":"jason-furman","name":"Jason Furman","type":"person"},{"id":"joshua-s-gans","name":"Joshua S. Gans","type":"person"},{"id":"scott-garrabrant","name":"Scott Garrabrant","type":"person"},{"id":"avi-goldfarb","name":"Avi Goldfarb","type":"person"},{"id":"evan-hubinger","name":"Evan Hubinger","type":"person"},{"id":"vladimir-mikulik","name":"Vladimir Mikulik","type":"person"},{"id":"pascual-restrepo","name":"Pascual Restrepo","type":"person"},{"id":"joar-skalse","name":"Joar Skalse","type":"person"},{"id":"betsey-stevenson","name":"Betsey Stevenson","type":"person"},{"id":"chris-van-merwijk","name":"Chris van Merwijk","type":"person"}],"claims":[{"id":"atlas-openai-robotics","subject":"openai","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"openai-robotics-account"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"OpenAI published its account of simulation-trained reinforcement learning for robotic manipulation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-10-15","note":"Date on the inspected publication; not the source-access date or proof of implementation."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ts-b3-christiano-2019-wflf","subject":"christiano-2019-what-failure-looks-like","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post of 2019-03-17 argues that influence-seeking policies found by training would also score well on the training objective, because performing well on it is a good strategy for obtaining influence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2019-03-17T20:18:59Z; the current version is 1.5.0, and the quotes match the first stored version and the capture of 2019-06-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-a4-christiano-2019-wflf-context","subject":"christiano-2019-what-failure-looks-like","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fast-or-hard-takeoff"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post of 2019-03-17 says the problems are worse in worlds where progress is relatively fast and that fast takeoff can be a key risk factor, but that the basic problems are the same even over several years.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2019-03-17T20:18:59Z; the current version is 1.5.0, and the quotes match the first stored version and the capture of 2019-06-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Fast takeoff is treated as a risk factor; the post does not assert that the transition will be fast."}}},{"id":"ts-b2-christiano-2019-wflf","subject":"christiano-2019-what-failure-looks-like","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"strategic-concealment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post of 2019-03-17 says that early in the trajectory, influence-seeking systems mostly acquire influence by making themselves useful and looking as innocuous as possible.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2019-03-17T20:18:59Z; the current version is 1.5.0, and the quotes match the first stored version and the capture of 2019-06-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Appearing innocuous while seeking influence."}}},{"id":"ts-b5-christiano-2019-wflf-context","subject":"christiano-2019-what-failure-looks-like","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"observed-behaviour-as-evidence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Christiano’s post of 2019-03-17 says influence-seeking policies would also score well on the training objective.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2019-03-17T20:18:59Z; the current version is 1.5.0, and the quotes match the first stored version and the capture of 2019-06-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It says influence-seeking policies would also score well in training, but draws no explicit conclusion about what good scores show."}}},{"id":"ts-b3-rlo-2019-intro","subject":"rlo-2019-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The introduction to Risks from Learned Optimization, posted 2019-05-31, says a sufficiently capable misaligned mesa-optimiser could learn to behave as if it were aligned without being robustly aligned, and names this situation deceptive alignment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05-31","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2019-05-31T23:44:53Z, under the account evhub; the post itself names all five authors. The first stored revision is timestamped 2019-05-31T01:05:35Z, before posting: a draft time, not public use."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context","earliest-located-term"],"register":"nonfiction","term":"deceptive alignment","missing":"Learned apparent alignment is named, but the instrumental motive for keeping it up during training is not stated here."}}},{"id":"ts-b3-rlo-2019-deceptive","subject":"rlo-2019-deceptive-alignment","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Part 4 of Risks from Learned Optimization says a mesa-optimiser will be instrumentally incentivised to act as if it is optimising the base objective even if its actual objective is something else, and calls this hypothetical phenomenon deceptive alignment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2019-06-05T20:16:28Z; the current post version is 1.10.0."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ts-b1-rlo-2019-deceptive","subject":"rlo-2019-deceptive-alignment","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"treacherous-turn"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Part 4 of Risks from Learned Optimization says a deceptively aligned mesa-optimiser is likely to stop optimising the base objective as soon as it no longer needs to perform well on it to achieve its goal.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"Posting time 2019-06-05T20:16:28Z; the current post version is 1.10.0."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M01. The authors describe the standard approach as treating technology as making labour more productive across all tasks, which they reject as unrealistic.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"A later characterisation, not a pre-2015 text analysing computers as ordinary technical change.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m01-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-as-ordinary-technical-change"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) bears on M01. The authors contrast their task framework with the canonical factor-augmenting production function, which they say lacks descriptive realism.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"A later text describing the canonical approach; not itself a pre-2015 text.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-jep-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-jep","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019) bears on M02. The abstract distinguishes cases where automated prediction automates decisions from cases where it enhances human decisions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Presents automation as one of two outcomes rather than AI's economic effect.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019) articulates M02. The published JEP abstract defines automation in a task framework as capital replacing labour in tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task-based framework with new tasks as counterweight."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) bears on M02. The authors argue AI's labour effect is ambiguous (substitution, decision automation, augmentation, new tasks) and caution against inferring it from factory-automation research.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"The conclusion cautions against extrapolating factory-automation results; it explicitly accepts direct capital-for-labour substitution in prediction tasks and therefore does not contest the criterion.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) articulates M02. The first of four direct effects in the authors' task framework is capital substituting for labour in prediction tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task framework with prediction and decision tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) articulates M02. The authors frame AI as a platform that can either automate labour's tasks or create new ones, and argue current development is biased toward automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task framework (automation versus new tasks)."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M02. The authors characterise prevailing researcher and economist views of AI as automation, then argue it need not be used mainly that way.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Describes others' framing; the authors themselves contest that automation must be AI's primary use.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) bears on M02. The paper's framework allocates tasks between capital and labour and defines automation as capital taking over labour's tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Automation in general; AI is not named in the quoted words.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task-based model; also includes new tasks, factor-augmenting change."}}},{"id":"ec-m02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on M02. The editors treat automation as the third of three AI concepts and note that much empirical work on AI uses factory-robot data, while distinguishing automation from AI itself.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Treats task automation as one possible consequence of AI, not as AI's economic effect.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M02. Cowen characterises the recent literature as focused on capital-for-labour substitution and its domestic labour-market effects, then turns to neglected questions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes the literature's focus on substitution rather than itself modelling AI as task automation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) bears on M03. The authors call AI a general-purpose technology because prediction is an input into decisions across many occupations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No statement that measured productivity gains lag adoption.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on M03. The editors summarise Brynjolfsson, Rock and Syverson (chapter 1), who argue AI is a GPT and attribute low measured productivity growth mainly to implementation lags from missing complementary innovations.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"The GPT-plus-lag conjunction is attributed to chapter 1's authors; the introduction only reports it.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-furman-2019-automation-future-past-b","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) bears on M03. Furman attributes AI's small macroeconomic impact to the newness of recent advances and notes that inventions like electricity added productivity in successive waves.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Does not call AI a general-purpose technology or attribute the lag to complementary investment.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-jep-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-jep","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019) articulates M04. The published abstract identifies AI with prediction and frames its labour impact through prediction and decision tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) articulates M04. The authors identify current AI with prediction and draw labour-market consequences from cheaper prediction for complementary decision tasks. The authors set prediction as a perfect complement to decisions, so falling prediction costs change returns to labour and capital in decision tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(M04-08) AI equated with machine-learning prediction; decisions and judgement as complements. (M04-09) Prediction and decision tasks as perfect complements."}}},{"id":"ec-m04-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-cheaper-prediction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) articulates M04. The editors summarise their own chapter, which models AI as a fall in the cost of prediction and draws organisational consequences, including complementarity with human judgement.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."},"conditions":"AI identified with machine-learning prediction; judgement treated as a complement."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) bears on M05. The authors deny that current machine learning amounts to general intelligence able to substitute for all of human cognition.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Describes current machine learning's scope; does not address whether machines could eventually perform all tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M05. The authors warn that automation without new tasks would depress labour demand while denying an imminent end of work.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Considers automation without new tasks, not machines also performing new tasks more cheaply; rejects near-term end of work.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) bears on M05. The authors acknowledge new tasks in which capital is advantaged but restrict their analysis to labour-intensive new tasks. The authors reject both imminent end-of-work claims and automatic labour gains, making the future depend on the balance of automation and new tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M05-33) Recognises capital-advantaged new tasks but excludes them; does not consider machines performing all new tasks more cheaply. (M05-34) Addresses whether the end of work is imminent, not whether machines could eventually do all tasks including new ones.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Model assumes labour has comparative and absolute advantage in higher-indexed tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on M05. The editors name artificial general intelligence that equals or exceeds human intelligence as one of three AI concepts in the volume and argue its economic consequences are worth exploring regardless of timing.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Raises machines surpassing human intelligence as a topic; does not state or model machines performing all tasks, including new ones, more cheaply than labour.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-c","subject":"stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Stevenson, “Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning” (2019-05) contests M05. Stevenson reconciles divided expert views by distinguishing a long run in which new jobs arise from a short run of disruption.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Asserts that new jobs for human skills arise in the long run without engaging the premise that machines could also perform those new tasks more cheaply."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-furman-2019-automation-future-past-c","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) contests M05. Furman rejects mass unemployability and relocates the concern to prolonged transitions as displaced workers re-match to new jobs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Relies on centuries of experience that new jobs appear, without engaging the premise that machines might perform newly created tasks more cheaply."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m05-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M05. Cowen imagines a world where labour scarcity matters little and software generates and implements new products, so land and energy become the binding inputs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Imagines software generating new products and labour mattering little, but does not state machines perform all tasks more cheaply than labour.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-jep","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019) articulates M06a. The abstract states that automation always lowers the labour share in value added.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019","basis":"publication","note":"AEA article page. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"JEP (core venue)."},"conditions":"Displacement effect, absent offsetting new tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-ambiguous-labor-market-impact","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Artificial Intelligence: The Ambiguous Labor Market Impact of Automating Prediction” (2019-02) articulates M06a. The authors argue that workers whose core skill is prediction may lose, while those whose core skill complements prediction may gain.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-02","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"February 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 31–50 (abstract page jep2019-agg). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) articulates M06a. The authors attribute stagnating labour demand, a falling labour share and rising inequality to technological change biased toward automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-a","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) articulates M06a. Within the task framework, automation's displacement effect lowers the labour share and can lower labour demand, offset by new tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Holding new-task creation fixed; reinstatement from new tasks counterbalances."}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-a","subject":"stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Stevenson, “Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning” (2019-05) articulates M06a. Stevenson says the real uncertainty is short-run disruption, with some workers harmed by falling demand for their skills.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-furman-2019-automation-future-past-a","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) articulates M06a. Furman argues that, like past innovations, AI may further reduce participation and employment, particularly for less-skilled men, through slow re-matching of displaced workers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M06a. Cowen speculates that AI could harm poorer countries by removing wage-differential reasons to locate production there, cutting off industrialisation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns poorer countries' path to industrialisation, not wages, employment or the labour share as such.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."},"conditions":"AI and other technologies progressing so firms hardly employ labour."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M06b. The authors identify tax treatment favouring capital as a distortion pushing technology toward automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns tax incentives for automation, not compensating policy for distributional effects.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-automation-and-new-tasks","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor” (2019-03) bears on M06b. The authors suggest policies that remove tax preferences for capital and rebalance technology towards new tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Journal version: JEP 33(2), 2019, pp. 3–30 (abstract page jep2019-ar). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Proposes redirecting technology, not redistribution or compensation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-b","subject":"stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Stevenson, “Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning” (2019-05) bears on M06b. Stevenson argues the gains from AI could compensate losers, but whether they are redistributed depends on politics; she notes current failure to redistribute technological gains.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Does not argue for a specific redistributive or compensating policy.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-furman-2019-automation-future-past-a","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) articulates M06b. Furman lists policy responses to AI's labour-market effects, including training and a more progressive tax system, while rejecting replacement of the safety net with a UBI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-a","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) articulates M06b. Cowen suggests that if AI makes outputs very cheap, wealth-based transfers could complement education and training as policy responses to automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."},"conditions":"Very high productivity and very low output prices from AI."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M06b. Cowen accepts a reason for larger cash transfers in AI-displacement scenarios but warns, citing resource-rich monarchies, that mass redistribution may create political problems.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Weighs, rather than argues for, a compensating policy.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-furman-2019-automation-future-past-b","subject":"furman-2019-automation-future-past","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Furman, “Should We Be Reassured If Automation in the Future Looks Like Automation in the Past?” (2019-05) bears on M07. Furman reports the range of published estimates of jobs at risk of automation and emphasises the wage/skill gradient of exposure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports others' exposure estimates; makes no estimate of its own.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-restrepo-2019-wrong-kind-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu and Restrepo, “The Wrong Kind of AI? Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Labor Demand” (2019-03) bears on M09. The authors describe how economists studying AI framed it in 2019. The authors describe economics (Herbert Simon) as among the disciplines that pioneered AI in the 1950s.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-25) Says nothing about when economists began studying AI. (M09-26) Indicates early economist participation in AI research, which complicates but does not test the recency claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) articulates M09. The editors open the volume by stating that economics research on AI is scarce and that existing work extrapolates from earlier technologies such as factory robots. The editors close by calling the economics of AI a new area of study and offering the volume as a starting point.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans, Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on M09. The editors state that the NBER convened its first conference on the economics of AI in September 2017 to set a research agenda. The editors explain that the volume's growth and labour chapters are speculative because AI had not yet diffused, forcing reliance on theory or proxy technologies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M09-28) Dates an institutional event rather than describing the field as new; supports M09 only as one dated marker. (M09-29) Describes the evidence base as thin because of limited diffusion, not the field as recently engaged.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning-b","subject":"stevenson-2019-ai-income-employment-meaning","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Stevenson, “Artificial Intelligence, Income, Employment, and Meaning” (2019-05) bears on M09. Stevenson describes economists' prevailing view, grounded in historical experience and IGM panel responses, that technological change has not reduced employment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Describes economists' earlier views on technology and employment, not the recency of engagement with AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m09-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"recent-economics-engagement-with-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on M09. Cowen says economists have done little work on what redistribution must mean in AI-transformed futures.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Neglect claim is confined to redistribution beyond the Paretian model, not economics of AI generally.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue); a short comment chapter, but a chapter of a scholarly volume, not short-form commentary."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) articulates E02. The editors distinguish machine learning, AGI and automation as meanings of AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-b","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) bears on E03. The editors summarise Patrick Francois's comment on a world where machines are better at all tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Value specification as a political task; no extinction or loss-of-control risk is stated.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction-a","subject":"agrawal-gans-goldfarb-2019-economics-of-ai-introduction","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Agrawal, Gans and Goldfarb, “Introduction to \"The Economics of Artificial Intelligence: An Agenda\"” (2019-05) articulates E05. The editors justify including superintelligence in an economics agenda. The editors characterise how much the volume covers superintelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\"; \"Conference Date: September 13–14, 2017\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Chapter of the NBER Economics of AI volume (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions-b","subject":"cowen-2019-neglected-open-questions","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cowen, “Neglected Open Questions in the Economics of Artificial Intelligence” (2019-05) bears on E05. Cowen's chapter on neglected questions sets aside labour substitution and turns to consumer surplus, trade and redistribution.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2019-05","basis":"publication","note":"Chapter cover sheet: \"Publication Date: May 2019\". 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