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the quote matches the capture of the same day."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A Schemer seems to perform well in training, but the checked passages do not state that good training performance is weak evidence."}}},{"id":"yk-y07-lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty-c","subject":"lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty” (2021-11-15) contests Y07. Replying to Richard Ngo's proposal to discuss the pivotal act of having AI make alignment progress faster than humans can, he argues that this task requires more dangerous capabilities (writing AI code, modelling human psychology) than other candidate acts.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-15","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI weak enough to be safe is strong enough to solve alignment."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-c","subject":"lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions” (2021-11-11) contests Y07. Answering the suggestion that humans could at least check AI-generated arguments for a design, he argues that an untrustworthy superintelligence could fool or covertly manipulate the checkers, so checking presupposes a belief in its alignment obtained some other way.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-11","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can verify its alignment output."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-lw-2021-yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds-c","subject":"lw-2021-yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Yudkowsky and Christiano discuss \"Takeoff Speeds\"” (2021-11-22) contests Y11. Commenting on Paul Christiano's 'Takeoff Speeds' essay, he rejects its description of the fast-takeoff view as accelerating growth; on his view there is no visible period of rapidly rising economic output before the end. Responds to Christiano's claim that very powerful AI will precede incredibly powerful AI: such predecessors may exist but, like the near-critical pile, may come too briefly before the decisive system to matter.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-22","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, one passage, read with the message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that slightly weaker predecessor systems will give us time and experience to adjust before the decisive one, while another states the contrary conclusion only."}}}},{"id":"yk-y13-lw-2021-biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick-c","subject":"lw-2021-biology-inspired-agi-timelines-the-trick","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"agi-decades-away"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works” (2021-12-01) contests Y13. Rejects biologically anchored estimates that place AGI decades out, arguing that AGI timing cannot be reliably forecast until very late.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-12-01","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"fiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can know that AGI is decades away."}}}},{"id":"yk-y15-lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty-c","subject":"lw-2021-ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"tool-without-goals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty” (2021-11-15) contests Y15. Answers Richard Ngo's question why a planning system could not be non-consequentialist about which plans it outputs. Argues that outputting plans that achieve outcomes is itself consequentialist work, whatever system performs it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-15","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system can be highly capable without having goals or optimising for outcomes."}}}},{"id":"yk-y24-lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi-c","subject":"lw-2021-discussion-with-eliezer-yudkowsky-on-agi","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Discussion with Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI interventions” (2021-11-11) contests Y24. Describing how he expects the end to come once an AGI can be scaled up before it can be aligned, he lists rushing ahead for fear of an arms race as another route to the same outcome.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-11-11","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2021-09","note":"The post states the conversation took place in early September 2021; published 2021-11-11."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that racing to be first improves the outcome."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) articulates G01. In a toy scenario in which AI robots substitute perfectly for all human labour, labour can be accumulated by investing in robots, and the report concludes that growth models then make super-exponential growth the default expectation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"A toy scenario in which AI robots can perfectly substitute for all human labour, so that labour can be accumulated through investment in robots."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) articulates G02. Restates the ideas feedback loop of semi-endogenous growth models with AI systems in place of population, after the demographic transition broke the human loop. Draws the conclusion of the feedback argument (audit A: the first passage alone stops before it).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."},"conditions":"AI substituting very effectively for human labour in both production and R&D."}}},{"id":"ec-g02-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share” (2021-02-04) bears on G02. Infers from historical data that returns to existing knowledge in research have been below the threshold at which a constant research effort produces a finite-time singularity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the historical value of a parameter; it does not say whether AI researchers, whose number can grow, would produce accelerating growth.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-a","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) articulates G03. An argument from history without a specific model: growth has sped up before, so a further increase should not be ruled out.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) contests G04. Responds to the Aghion, Jones and Jones bottleneck. Davidson accepts that it \"correctly highlights that AI may lead to very widespread automation without explosive growth occurring\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-06-25","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 25, 2021\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2021-07-02","note":"Earliest retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that some essential task will remain unautomated, and adds that partial automation can raise growth temporarily."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Research report by an author with no economics appointment, degree, address or affiliation shown in or near the text and no established record as an economist; the report says it is written to be accessible to non-economists. Under the 2026-10-11 rule the venue does not decide; the author does."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2020-growth-under-transformative-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI: A guide to the vast range of possibilities for output growth, wages, and the labor share” (2021-02-04) bears on G05. Treats growth-rate increases and singularities as benchmarks that hold \"for some time\" before limits such as land or energy bind.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2021-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the retrieved text: \"February 4, 2021\". The series cover reads \"Global Priorities Institute | October 2020\" (see claimed)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Says limits end super-exponential growth eventually; does not say they prevent explosive growth or end it quickly.","claimed":{"date":"2020-10","note":"Series cover date of GPI Working Paper 8-2020; the October 2020 wording was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2021-06-25","note":"Only retrieved capture of the GPI PDF (text dated 2021-02-04)."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Working paper by authors with stated economics affiliations (Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Department of Economics, University of Virginia, NBER and CEPR, per the title page of the 2023 GPI revision); later NBER Working Paper 31815 and Annual Review of Economics."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth-c","subject":"davidson-2021-explosive-economic-growth","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Davidson, “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?” (2021-06-25) contests G05. 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