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Concludes an argument that human minds are a poorly understood domain in which a superintelligence could win by means humans would not understand even if shown them. Answers proposals to contain an AGI behind human gatekeepers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a smarter-than-human mind confined to a channel with its human operators cannot get out through those operators."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y08. Argues that some failure modes, such as deliberately appearing aligned to deceive operators, would first appear only at dangerous capability levels, so observing weaker systems cannot be relied on to surface them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that dangerous failure modes will show up first in weaker systems, where they can be observed and fixed."}}}},{"id":"yk-y08-lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-c","subject":"lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"warning-signs-in-time"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “MIRI announces new \"Death With Dignity\" strategy” (2022-04-02) contests Y08. Describes a scenario in which interpretability work detects signs that a system may be planning deception, but no known remedy exists and management, under competitive pressure, does not shut the project down.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-04-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that once a warning sign is seen, it will lead to effective action."}}}},{"id":"yk-y09-lw-2022-shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures-c","subject":"lw-2022-shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"next-word-prediction-is-shallow"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Shah and Yudkowsky on alignment failures” (2022-02-28) contests Y09. In a chat with Rohin Shah, he argues that predicting human text about a domain well enough requires the model to learn internally a process that does the work of that domain.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-02-28","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that next-token prediction is a shallow task that cannot require deep cognition."}}}},{"id":"yk-y11-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"slow-takeoff-time-to-adjust"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y11. Argues, by analogy with human evolution, that a sharp capability gain may make many alignment assumptions fail at once, rather than one at a time as experience accumulates.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that slightly weaker predecessor systems will give us time and experience to adjust before the decisive one."}}}},{"id":"yk-y12-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"evaluations-catch-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y12. Argues that behavioural inspection cannot establish facts that a strategically aware AI has reason to hide, including whether it has become strategically aware. Part of a list on the limits of transparency and interpretability.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a dangerous system would behave dangerously while it is being tested."}}}},{"id":"yk-y16-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"give-it-human-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y16. Discussing a CEV-style AI that wants exactly what we would want, he argues that what would have to be aligned is too complex to specify or teach on the first attempt.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that human values can be written down or taught as a ready, compact specification."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y21. In a list of lethal difficulties he states that current systems' internal cognition is very likely alien rather than human-like; item 32 adds that human words are only a surface trace of human thought.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y25-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"interpretability-reads-its-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y25. Follows the statement that 'We've got no idea what's actually going on inside the giant inscrutable matrices'. Argues that current interpretability results do not answer the question safety needs answered.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can see what an AI system is thinking."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y26. Opens an item that gives a 'lower-bound model' in which an AI with Internet access orders proteins by email and bribes or persuades an unwitting human to mix them, leading to nanomachinery.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that intelligence without physical actuators of its own is not dangerous."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y27. He argues that alignment trained under safe conditions must generalise across a large distributional shift to dangerous conditions, because dangerous systems cannot be trained by trial and observed failure.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that results from safe experiments on weaker systems will carry over to dangerous ones."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y28. Near the end of the list, he contrasts the present with worlds that survive, which he says have long had a written, public plan.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that a credible safety plan exists, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y28-lw-2022-six-dimensions-of-operational-adequacy-in-c","subject":"lw-2022-six-dimensions-of-operational-adequacy-in","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"developers-know-what-they-are-doing"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Six Dimensions of Operational Adequacy in AGI Projects” (2022-05-30) contests Y28. Introducing a list of properties a trustworthy AGI project would need, he says that no existing project qualifies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-05-30","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2017-11","note":"Editor's note says the document was written in November 2017; the wording is attested only in the lightly edited copy published 2022-05-30."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the post the passage belongs to gives a reason against the premise that a credible safety plan exists by diagnosing inadequate alignment mindset and safety approaches at named leading projects."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-agi-ruin-2022-c","subject":"agi-ruin-2022","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities” (2022-06-05) contests Y29. Listing unworkable schemes, he argues that humans cannot take part in coordination among superintelligences, which would cooperate with each other and exclude humanity.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-06-05","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-c","subject":"lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “MIRI announces new \"Death With Dignity\" strategy” (2022-04-02) contests Y30. Announcing a reframing of MIRI's aim as helping humanity \"die with dignity\", he states that humanity will not solve alignment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-04-02","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"lg-cn-yun-yeyi-sensetime-2017-2022","subject":"yun-yeyi","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"sensetime"},"topic":"people","statement":"MiniMax’s Hong Kong prospectus of 31 December 2025 states that Yun Yeyi held positions at SenseTime from September 2017 to January 2022, latterly as director of innovative business.","time":{"kind":"interval","from":"2017-09","until":"2022-01","note":"Month-precision bounds from the first and last positions listed in the prospectus biography."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"various positions; director of innovative business (2021-01 to 2022-01)"}},{"id":"lg-cn-minimax-founded-2022","subject":"minimax","predicate":"founding_stated","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"2022"},"topic":"institutions","statement":"MiniMax’s Hong Kong prospectus of 31 December 2025 states that the company was founded in 2022 by a group of engineers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022","note":"Year as stated by the company; no month given in this passage."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"lg-goo-suleyman-leaves-google-2022","subject":"mustafa-suleyman","predicate":"departure_announced","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"google"},"topic":"people","statement":"Greylock announced on 20 January 2022 that Mustafa Suleyman was joining it as a Venture Partner from Google.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-01-20","note":"Greylock's announcement date; not a last working day at Google."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"Vice President of AI Product Management and AI Policy"}},{"id":"lg-deal-hoffman-cofounded-inflection-2022","subject":"reid-hoffman","predicate":"co_founded","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inflection-ai"},"topic":"people","statement":"Mustafa Suleyman announced on 8 March 2022 that he and Reid were co-founding Inflection AI; Inflection AI's press release of 21 July 2026 names Reid Hoffman as a Co-Founder of Inflection AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-03-08","note":"Date of the announcement of the co-founding; legal incorporation date not stated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"Co-Founder"}},{"id":"lg-deal-simonyan-cofounded-inflection-2022","subject":"karen-simonyan","predicate":"co_founded","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inflection-ai"},"topic":"people","statement":"Mustafa Suleyman's announcement of Inflection AI on 8 March 2022 names Karén Simonyan as its Chief Scientist and co-founder.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-03-08","note":"Date of the announcement naming him co-founder."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"co-founder"}},{"id":"lg-deal-simonyan-inflection-chief-scientist-2022","subject":"karen-simonyan","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inflection-ai"},"topic":"people","statement":"Mustafa Suleyman announced on 8 March 2022 that Karén Simonyan would be Inflection AI's Chief Scientist.","time":{"kind":"snapshot","date":"2022-03-08","note":"Announcement date; not a start date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"activityStage":"announced","role":"Chief Scientist"}},{"id":"lg-deal-suleyman-cofounded-inflection-2022","subject":"mustafa-suleyman","predicate":"co_founded","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"inflection-ai"},"topic":"people","statement":"Mustafa Suleyman announced on 8 March 2022 that he and Reid Hoffman were co-founding Inflection AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-03-08","note":"Date of the announcement of the co-founding; legal incorporation date not stated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"co-founder"}},{"id":"lg-new-mensch-deepmind-2022","subject":"arthur-mensch","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deepmind"},"topic":"people","statement":"The Chinchilla paper (arXiv v1, 29 March 2022) lists Arthur Mensch among the four authors marked as equal contributors and gives the corresponding-author addresses of those four at the deepmind.com domain.","time":{"kind":"snapshot","date":"2022-03-29","note":"arXiv v1 submission date; an affiliation snapshot, not an employment interval."},"derivation":"inferred","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"Equal-contribution author with a DeepMind corresponding address"}},{"id":"lg-oai-brockman-president-2022","subject":"greg-brockman","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"openai"},"topic":"people","statement":"OpenAI announced on 5 May 2022 that Greg Brockman was becoming President, a new role.","time":{"kind":"snapshot","date":"2022-05-05","note":"Announcement date; not a start date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"President"}},{"id":"lg-oai-lightcap-coo-2022","subject":"brad-lightcap","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"openai"},"topic":"people","statement":"OpenAI announced on 5 May 2022 that Brad Lightcap would become Chief Operating Officer.","time":{"kind":"snapshot","date":"2022-05-05","note":"Announcement date; not a start date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"activityStage":"announced","role":"Chief Operating Officer"}},{"id":"lg-oai-murati-cto-2022","subject":"mira-murati","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"openai"},"topic":"people","statement":"OpenAI announced on 5 May 2022 that Mira Murati was taking on the role of Chief Technology Officer.","time":{"kind":"snapshot","date":"2022-05-05","note":"Announcement date; not a start date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"Chief Technology Officer"}},{"id":"ap-ajeya-cotra-cotra-2022-without-specific-countermeasures","subject":"ajeya-cotra","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"cotra-2022-without-specific-countermeasures"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Without specific countermeasures, the easiest path to transformative AI likely leads to AI takeover” (2022-07-18) credits Ajeya Cotra as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-07-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-evan-hubinger-hubinger-2022-how-likely-deceptive-alignment","subject":"evan-hubinger","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"hubinger-2022-how-likely-deceptive-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“How likely is deceptive alignment?” (2022-08-30) credits Evan Hubinger as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-08-30","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-lw-2022-shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lw-2022-shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Shah and Yudkowsky on alignment failures” (2022-02-28) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-02-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lw-2022-miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“MIRI announces new \"Death With Dignity\" strategy” (2022-04-02) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2022-04-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; 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