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We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y01. Argues that the dangerous thresholds lie beyond human-level intelligence and cannot be calculated in advance, so a lab could pass them unnoticed. Written in response to the March 2023 open letter calling for a six-month pause.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? 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Answering a question about whether AIs will internalise prohibitions the way most children do, he argues that children's moral learning relies on innate human mechanisms that AI training does not reproduce.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-01-24","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that AI training will instil values the way upbringing instils morals in children."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y07. In an op-ed arguing that a six-month moratorium is insufficient, he cites a leading lab's stated intention to have future AI do alignment work as evidence that there is no viable survival plan.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? 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Using the example of text listing products of primes followed by the primes, he argues that predicting text can demand more intelligence than generating it, so the task does not cap out at the level of the human writers. Concludes that predicting all Internet text, including the errors and private thoughts behind it, is a harder task than being a human, while conceding that GPT-4 is not yet as capable as a human in many ways.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system trained to predict human text is capped at imitating the humans who wrote it, and against the premise that next-token prediction is a shallow task that cannot require deep cognition."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y14. Contrasts safety for superhuman intelligence with other challenges humanity has overcome by learning from mistakes and trying again. Written in response to the March 2023 open letter calling for a six-month pause.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y17. Responding to an open letter calling for a six-month pause on training systems more powerful than GPT-4, he argues that the letter asks for too little.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short pause (for example six months) is enough."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-b","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) bears on Y17. Setting out what he thinks would actually need to be done, he calls for an indefinite worldwide halt to large training runs, backed by multinational agreements.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It presents an enforced, indefinite and worldwide halt as what would need to be done, not a pause or regulation that will handle the risk."}}},{"id":"yk-y19-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y19. In a general-audience article he repeats the formula after saying that the likely outcome of current methods is an AI that does not care for humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators-c","subject":"lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators” (2023-04-08) contests Y21. He argues that predicting human text requires modelling the processes behind it, a different and harder task than being human, so a predictor need not think like the humans it predicts.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y22. Concludes his TIME essay, which calls for an indefinite worldwide moratorium on large training runs, not a six-month pause; the same essay says anyone 'talking of arms races is a fool'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that reaching superintelligence is good by default, so speed is what matters, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y24-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y24. Within his proposal for a worldwide moratorium, he rejects framing AI development as a national arms race on the ground that everyone shares the outcome. Discussing a moratorium that might begin in the United States, he describes the technology as one that no country could own and that would kill people in both countries.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that racing to be first improves the outcome, and against the premise that whoever builds it controls it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y26. Asks readers to picture a hostile superhuman AI as a fast alien civilisation initially confined to computers, then argues that such confinement would not last because molecular biology can be ordered online.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that intelligence without physical actuators of its own is not dangerous."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y27. Arguing that making superhuman AI safe could take decades, he says that failure on the first attempt leaves no one to learn from it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that alignment can be learned by trial and error at the frontier."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y30. Opening his case against a six-month pause, he states what he expects from building superhuman AI under present conditions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"ec-g01-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) articulates G01. Opens the paper's summary of its assessment: substitution of AI for labour on most or all tasks makes explosive growth the default prediction of growth models.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"AI able to substitute for human labour on most or all tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G01. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu defines explosive growth as at least ten times the past century's annual growth rate, sustained for at least a decade, and gives a conditional probability.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Conditional on AI automating the vast majority of tasks; explosive growth defined as at least tenfold the past century's growth rate for a decade or more."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) contests G01. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy questions whether growth models can be extrapolated to growth far outside historical experience. Earlier in the debate he puts the chance of explosive growth at 10–20%. Clancy's answer to Besiroglu's 65%, given on the same condition of AI deployed throughout the economy. He adds that most of the probability is \"clustered around the low end of explosive growth\", and the same turn doubts that growth models can be extrapolated so far.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that growth models remain reliable when extrapolated far beyond historical growth rates; the turn gives a reason (the reach of growth models beyond historical experience) against the premise of the model-based argument."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G02. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu argues that AI restores the population-ideas feedback that drove historical acceleration.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"AI that substitutes for human workers and idea producers; a semi-endogenous growth model in which ideas are non-rival and output, population and ideas feed back on each other."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G03. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Points to faster growth after the Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions, and to double-digit catch-up growth, as precedent.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-b","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) bears on G03. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy questions whether past accelerations are informative about an acceleration driven by intelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Disputes that past accelerations are informative about an acceleration driven by intelligence; G03 does not require that mechanism, and the same turn grants that past acceleration \"is a good reason to think there is some chance it could happen again\".","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) contests G04. Based on a CES task model calibrated with a range of substitution parameters: fast automation of most tasks can give a large transitory boost even with bottlenecks. Section 3.1 treats the objection that \"the training or deployment of AI systems will be sufficiently impeded by regulation\"; the authors argue that incentives for AI adoption resemble those for nuclear proliferation, so coordination to slow it is likely to be imperfect.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that partial automation cannot produce explosive growth, by modelling a fast transition with complementary tasks; disputes the premise that regulation of AI training or deployment will keep tasks unautomated for long enough to hold growth down."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"The sentence opens \"even if the other arguments fail to go through and we cannot even attain AI that perfectly substitutes for humans across all tasks\". CES task model with complementary tasks; a fixed stock of inputs reallocated from automated to unautomated tasks; input to automated tasks approximated as infinite (very cheap, very large AI inputs), so finite AI input would reduce the effect; about 90% of tasks automated (f = 0.1 unautomated) within less than ten years; substitution parameter ρ = −2 between tasks, below the range of −1.2 to −0.14 the authors cite as plausible for capital and labour."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu (2023-06) articulates G04. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy gives a verbal version of the Aghion, Jones and Jones task model applied to innovation: with every task required and automation advancing about 1% a year, growth stays steady; only faster or full automation gives explosive growth. Clancy says AI is \"pretty likely to boost growth\" and then lists bottlenecks that slow AGI's takeover of tasks: physical-world tasks, raw materials, training data, the time natural processes take, preferences for human performers, regulation and zero-sum competition. Clancy's closing turn: different sectors are held back by materials, time, data or regulation; sectors that automate easily become cheap and \"no longer count for much of GDP\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Every innovation task is required; innovation gets harder each year; displaced workers retrain onto the remaining tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) contests G04. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu argues that with complementary tasks, scaling digital workers on automated tasks still raises output by one or two orders of magnitude unless a large share of tasks stays unautomated.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a few unautomated tasks suffice to block explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Tasks are complements; \"digital workers\" on automated tasks scaled up at least tenfold; automation going \"from little to substantial\" over decades rather than about a century; substitution of AI for human labour not unusually hard. In the same turn Besiroglu says that with 25% of tasks unautomated output could still rise by one or two orders of magnitude."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) contests G05. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu sets three conditions a resource bottleneck must meet (vital, hard to substitute, impossible to expand by an order of magnitude); he also argues that experiments can be parallelised and that regulation faces strong incentives to be bypassed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons in the same turn against the premises that resource limits and experiment times bind."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) contests G05. Accepts eventual limits and contests their timing, with an estimate of returns to scale.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that resource constraints bind soon enough to preclude explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G06. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy answers Besiroglu's point about fast growth in AI training compute.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g09-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) articulates G09. The authors' unconditional estimate. The same paragraph says high confidence \"seems unwarranted\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined in the paper as annual real GWP exceeding 130% of its maximum value over all previous years (about ten times growth rates typical of today's frontier economies).","estimates":[{"holder":"Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu","value":"about even odds of widespread automation and subsequent explosive growth","horizon":"by the end of this century (from October 2023)","definition":"annual real gross world product exceeding 130% of its maximum over all previous years","conditional":false,"conditions":"The same paragraph says high confidence \"seems unwarranted\"."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G09. Speakers: Tamay Besiroglu; Matt Clancy. Besiroglu's estimate conditional on AI automating the vast majority of tasks. In his closing turn he gives 25–75% \"conditional on AGI\". He separately puts the development of such AI this century at about 80%; he does not combine the figures. Clancy's estimate on the same condition, with \"most of that probability clustered around the low end of explosive growth\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Tamay Besiroglu","value":"65%; at the close 25–75% \"conditional on AGI\"","horizon":"not stated; conditional on the arrival of the AI described","definition":"at least ten times the annual growth rate of the past century, sustained for at least a decade","conditional":true,"conditions":"AI that automates the vast majority of tasks currently performed by humans."},{"holder":"Matt Clancy","value":"10% to 20%, \"depending on how I'm feeling\"","horizon":"not stated; conditional on deploying AI throughout the economy","definition":"Besiroglu's definition (at least tenfold the past century's growth rate for at least a decade)","conditional":true,"conditions":"AI deployed throughout the economy."}]}}},{"id":"ec-m02-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M02. The authors deliberately do not classify exposure as automation versus augmentation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Exposure is not identified with machines taking over tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M03. The authors argue LLMs meet general-purpose-technology criteria of pervasiveness, improvement and complementary innovation. The authors note that co-invention requirements typical of general-purpose technologies may slow LLM diffusion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M03-10) No statement that measured productivity gains lag adoption. (M03-11) Refers to slowed diffusion, not to measured productivity lagging adoption.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M06b. The authors call for policy preparedness and point to prior work on education, training and safety-net reform, but decline to recommend specific policies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No specific redistributive or compensating policy is argued for.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-a","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) articulates M07. The authors estimate the share of US workers whose occupational tasks are exposed to LLMs, from O*NET task descriptions rated by humans and GPT-4. The authors describe their method: rating task exposure using a rubric applied by human annotators and GPT-4.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."},"conditions":"Exposure measure β (direct plus half of tool-dependent exposure); US occupations; GPT-4-assisted labels."}}},{"id":"ec-m07-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M07. The authors caution that exposure measures technical feasibility, not realised productivity or automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A caveat on the measure rather than an estimate.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) bears on E01. Cites Aghion, Jones and Jones (2019), Trammell and Korinek (2020), Davidson (2021), Nordhaus (2021), Erdil and Besiroglu (2023).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Growth explosion from automated idea production (G02); does not state that AI improves AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."},"conditions":"'Once machines can produce ideas'; 'could', 'potentially'."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E01. Discussing AI safety, the authors say models in which capital recursively self-improves without human input are the most worrying for existential risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) bears on E01. The abstract distinguishes AI letting capital self-replicate from AI letting it self-improve via knowledge production.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"Self-improvement of capital through knowledge production, framed as growth, not AI improving AI's own capabilities.","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) bears on E01. Opening paragraph: the authors say future models may reach AGI and, unlike earlier technologies, could automate R&D itself. The clause names AI creating better AI systems. The authors characterise the 'singularity' hypothesis and add that absent current economic effects cannot refute it because the theory predicts little advance warning. Second of the review's 'robust findings': automating R&D in isolation has ambiguous growth effects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"(E01-27) AI building better AI, without stated acceleration of capabilities. (E01-30) Describes a hypothesis held by others and what it predicts; it does not itself state that AI improves AI, and the authors neither endorse nor reject the hypothesis here. (E01-32) About output growth from automated research in general (G02 territory), not about AI improving AI; it bounds the acceleration rather than rejecting it.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."},"conditions":"(E01-27) Conditional on future models reaching AGI ('may reach'). (E01-32) Automating R&D in isolation; depends on parallelizability and research constraints."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) articulates E01. Abstract sentence contrasting automation of production (self-replication) with automation of R&D (self-improvement). Citing the high capital share in AI R&D (Besiroglu et al., 2024), the authors describe a feedback in which automating AI R&D speeds AI capability growth, then cite calibrated models of this feedback (Erdil et al. 2025; Lifland et al. 2025) as having 'speculative elements'. In the risk subsection, the authors contrast a scenario of acceleration from R&D automation alone with scenarios of automated physical production, each with distinct safety concerns.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."},"conditions":"(E01-28) Within the reviewed growth models; acceleration not sufficient 'in isolation'. (E01-29) 'could'; hedged 'in some sense'. (E01-31) Scenario; 'potential for'."}}},{"id":"ec-e02-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-a","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) articulates E02. Preceded by 'many experts worry that these advances entail existential risk:'. Jones reports warnings from 'a substantial contingent of the A.I. research community, including leading researchers at OpenAI and Google'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) bears on E02. Jones's own statement of possibility, followed by growth models in which machines produce ideas.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"'Many cognitive tasks', not essentially all; 'innovating itself' means AI producing ideas, not explicitly improving AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E02. Explaining their focus on average wages and the labour share, the authors state that the likeliest transformative long-run scenario is AI outsmarting all humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) bears on E02. Definition of AGI used in the review's introduction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Defines AGI as parity with skilled humans on all cognitive tasks ('at least as well as'); it does not state that machines would exceed human cognition.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-a","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) articulates E03. The abstract sets growth gains against existential risk, which it attributes to 'many experts', and frames the paper as a welfare analysis of whether to continue or stop. First of four insights: 'With log utility, the models are remarkably unconcerned with existential risk'. Insight 2 says CRRA utility with γ of 2 or more is 'quite conservative'. Key Point 3: with γ ≤ 1 any risk short of sure annihilation is acceptable for an immediate singularity; with γ = 2 or 3 the cutoffs are much smaller. The 'key exception' to the conservative result: mortality gains are 'in the same units' as existential risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."},"conditions":"(E03-11) Log utility; simple static model. (E03-12) γ = 3; immediate singularity with infinite consumption; no A.I. mortality improvement; ρ − b = 1%, g0 = 2%, m0 = 1%, v(c0) = 6. (E03-13) If A.I.-driven innovation extends life expectancy and reduces mortality."}}},{"id":"ec-e03-gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi-b","subject":"gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Can Socially-Minded Governance Control the AGI Beast?” (2023-11) bears on E03. Refers to the 'potential existential risks' that motivated OpenAI's funders; the model then assumes the risks are real.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A literature and motivation statement, not a substantive economic treatment of the risk; the model treats harm from dangerous users as an expected negative externality (E > 0), not as extinction or loss of control.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E03. 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it does not state that mitigation of AI-related biological risk depends on screening, which is the proposition’s criterion."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-sandbrink-articulates","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandbrink's preprint on AI and biological misuse (arXiv v1, 24 June 2023) states that large language models such as GPT-4 are already able to provide dual-use information that could have enabled historical biological weapons efforts to succeed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; the article was revised to v8 on 23 December 2023, and only v1 is cited."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a claim about information provision, with historical programmes as the comparison."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d4-sandbrink-articulates","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandbrink's preprint (arXiv v1, 24 June 2023) differentiates large language models from biological design tools, stating that language models in particular lower barriers to biological misuse while design tools expand the capabilities of sophisticated actors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; only v1 is cited."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Differentiates the two classes by the barriers each affects and by the actors each favours."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d5-sandbrink-articulates","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandbrink's preprint (arXiv v1, 24 June 2023) states that enhanced screening of gene synthesis is among the measures key to reducing the risks it describes.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; only v1 is cited."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated for the risks the preprint attributes to design tools in particular."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d7-sandbrink-context","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandbrink's preprint (arXiv v1, 24 June 2023) states that biological design tools will expand the capabilities of sophisticated actors, and proposes interventions to deter biological misuse by such actors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; only v1 is cited."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the point as a contrast with the barrier-lowering effect it attributes to language models.","missing":"The passage states that design tools expand the capabilities of sophisticated actors and proposes interventions aimed at them; it does not state that assessment must cover actors who already hold relevant skills, which is the proposition’s criterion."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d6-seger-articulates","subject":"seger-open-sourcing-2023-09","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"\"Open-Sourcing Highly Capable Foundation Models\" (arXiv v1, submitted 29 September 2023) states that for some highly capable foundation models likely to be developed in the near future, open-sourcing may pose sufficiently extreme risks to outweigh the benefits, and names access to biological weapons knowledge among the dangerous capabilities at issue.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Submission date of arXiv v1 as given by the abstract page and the PDF's own stamp, although the identifier belongs to the November 2023 series."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Scoped by the authors to some highly capable models expected in the near future."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d4-moulange-articulates","subject":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint \"Towards Responsible Governance of Biological Design Tools\" (arXiv v1, 27 November 2023) states that biological design tools pose distinct regulatory challenges and that regulatory proposals tailored to large language models may be less effective for them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp on the PDF."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the difference in terms of what regulation each class needs."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d5-moulange-context","subject":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint of 27 November 2023 states that the design capabilities of biological design tools could be used to evade DNA screening techniques, against the premise that screening at synthesis is a dependable control point.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp on the PDF."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a possibility (\"could be used\"), not as an observed outcome.","missing":"The passage states that the design capabilities could be used to evade screening; it does not contest screening’s role as a control point on which mitigation depends, which the contesting relation would require."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d6-moulange-articulates","subject":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint of 27 November 2023 identifies, among the challenges of regulating biological design tools, the potential for safeguards to be circumvented by open-sourcing model weights.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp on the PDF."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated of biological design tools, whose weights the paper says are often released openly."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d2-batalis-context","subject":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"CSET's explainer \"AI and Biorisk\" (December 2023) states that the barrier to scientific information is not high even for beginners, and that feasibility depends on both information and hands-on production success, without stating which of the two limits biological misuse.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12","basis":"publication","note":"Month given on the CSET publication page; the day is not stated, so the date stays a month."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated across two of the explainer's own conclusions — that the information barrier is not high and that feasibility also requires hands-on production success — and in no passage that ranks the two.","missing":"The explainer states that information and hands-on production success are both required; it does not state that access to information is not the barrier that limits biological misuse."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d4-batalis-articulates","subject":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"CSET's explainer of December 2023 treats biological design tools as a separate class from chatbots, stating that their use in its current state requires both scientific and programming expertise.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12","basis":"publication","note":"Month given on the CSET publication page; the day is not stated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the difference as one of required expertise and of the user population."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d7-batalis-context","subject":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"CSET's explainer of December 2023 states that the biorisk landscape is not uniform and that specific scenarios and actors should be assessed individually, without stating that assessment must cover actors who already hold relevant skills.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12","basis":"publication","note":"Month given on the CSET publication page; the day is not stated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A key takeaway of the explainer, quoted as the explainer words it.","missing":"The explainer asks for scenario- and actor-specific assessment in general, but does not state that actors who already hold relevant scientific skills must be within the scope of assessment."}}}],"sources":[],"evidence":[],"at":{"entities":[0,2,3,12,15,19,21,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,74,95,103,112,151,157,161,165,169,180,181,182,183,383,435,438,532,533,564,598,599,601,605,635,856,865,876,877,881,889,890,895,902,915,930,1234,1243,1248,1249,1250],"claims":[17,217,218,219,237,238,239,240,241,242,243,259,264,265,289,312,326,327,328,339,340,342,343,344,353,354,368,370,371,372,987,1022,1036,1050,1078,1098,1099,1116,1129,1139,1143,1157,1162,1182,1244,1245,1247,1254,1264,1265,1270,1271,1272,1277,1278,1281,1290,1293,1337,1347,1438,1442,1443,1496,1497,1498,1501,1502,1509,1510,1511,1517,1525,1526,1527,1530,1539,1541,1555,1556,1557,1565,2192,2193,2206,2222,2223,2235,2270,2275,2276,2285,2294,2316,2335,2336,2468,2469,2470,2738,3412,3413,3414,3415,3416,3417,3418,3419,3420,3421,3422,3423,3424,3425],"sources":[],"evidence":[]},"version":"1lg47t7"}