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The company’s own date of signing is not recorded."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"commitment":{"stage":"listed"}}},{"id":"cm-wh-2023-09-ibm","subject":"ibm","predicate":"signed_commitment","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The White House named IBM among the eight companies from which it announced on 12 September 2023 that it had secured a second round of voluntary AI commitments.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the White House fact sheet (day precision), also matched in the Internet Archive capture of that day. The company’s own date of signing is not recorded."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"commitment":{"stage":"listed"}}},{"id":"cm-wh-2023-09-nvidia","subject":"nvidia","predicate":"signed_commitment","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The White House named Nvidia (NVIDIA) among the eight companies from which it announced on 12 September 2023 that it had secured a second round of voluntary AI commitments.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the White House fact sheet (day precision), also matched in the Internet Archive capture of that day. The company’s own date of signing is not recorded."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"commitment":{"stage":"listed"}}},{"id":"cm-wh-2023-09-palantir","subject":"palantir","predicate":"signed_commitment","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The White House named Palantir among the eight companies from which it announced on 12 September 2023 that it had secured a second round of voluntary AI commitments.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the White House fact sheet (day precision), also matched in the Internet Archive capture of that day. The company’s own date of signing is not recorded."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"commitment":{"stage":"listed"}}},{"id":"cm-wh-2023-09-salesforce","subject":"salesforce","predicate":"signed_commitment","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The White House named Salesforce among the eight companies from which it announced on 12 September 2023 that it had secured a second round of voluntary AI commitments.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the White House fact sheet (day precision), also matched in the Internet Archive capture of that day. The company’s own date of signing is not recorded."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"commitment":{"stage":"listed"}}},{"id":"cm-wh-2023-09-scale-ai","subject":"scale-ai","predicate":"signed_commitment","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The White House named Scale AI among the eight companies from which it announced on 12 September 2023 that it had secured a second round of voluntary AI commitments.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the White House fact sheet (day precision), also matched in the Internet Archive capture of that day. The company’s own date of signing is not recorded."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"commitment":{"stage":"listed"}}},{"id":"cm-wh-2023-09-stability-ai","subject":"stability-ai","predicate":"signed_commitment","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The White House named Stability AI (as “Stability”) among the eight companies from which it announced on 12 September 2023 that it had secured a second round of voluntary AI commitments.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the White House fact sheet (day precision), also matched in the Internet Archive capture of that day. The company’s own date of signing is not recorded."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"commitment":{"stage":"listed"}}},{"id":"prov-wh-2023-07-scope","subject":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-07","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Scope: generative models more powerful than the current industry frontier"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-21","basis":"publication","note":"The edition’s publication date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"prov-wh-2023-07-duration","subject":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-07","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Commitments intended to remain in effect until regulations on the same issues come into force"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-21","basis":"publication","note":"The edition’s publication date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"prov-wh-2023-07-red-teaming","subject":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-07","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Commitment 1: internal and external red-teaming of models in scope"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-21","basis":"publication","note":"The edition’s publication date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"prov-wh-2023-07-model-weights","subject":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-07","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Commitment 3: safeguards for unreleased model weights"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-21","basis":"publication","note":"The edition’s publication date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"prov-wh-2023-07-public-reporting","subject":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-07","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Commitment 6: public reports for significant model releases in scope"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-21","basis":"publication","note":"The edition’s publication date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"prov-wh-2023-09-scope","subject":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Scope: generative models more powerful than the company’s own current most advanced model"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-12","basis":"publication","note":"The edition’s publication date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"provchange-wh-2023-09-scope","subject":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-09","predicate":"changes_from","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-07"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-12","basis":"publication","note":"The later edition’s publication date."},"resolution":"supported","attributes":{"changeBasis":"document_comparison","provision":{"kind":"threshold","key":"scope"}}},{"id":"cm-link-rsp-2023-wh","subject":"rsp-2023","predicate":"references_commitment","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"wh-voluntary-ai-commitments-2023-07"},"topic":"governance","statement":"Anthropic’s Responsible Scaling Policy v1.0 states that its ASL-2 deployment measures overlap substantially with the White House voluntary commitments that Anthropic and other companies made in July, which it says it continues to maintain.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-19","basis":"effective","note":"The edition’s effective date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"commitment":{"link":"names"}}},{"id":"yk-y01-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"switch-off-if-dangerous"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y01. Argues that the dangerous thresholds lie beyond human-level intelligence and cannot be calculated in advance, so a lab could pass them unnoticed. Written in response to the March 2023 open letter calling for a six-month pause.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we will recognise the moment when it has become dangerous enough to press the switch."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-lw-2023-alexander-and-yudkowsky-on-agi-goals-c","subject":"lw-2023-alexander-and-yudkowsky-on-agi-goals","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Alexander and Yudkowsky on AGI goals” (2023-01-24) contests Y05. Answering a question about whether AIs will internalise prohibitions the way most children do, he argues that children's moral learning relies on innate human mechanisms that AI training does not reproduce.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-01-24","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that AI training will instil values the way upbringing instils morals in children."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y07. In an op-ed arguing that a six-month moratorium is insufficient, he cites a leading lab's stated intention to have future AI do alignment work as evidence that there is no viable survival plan.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that an AI weak enough to be safe is strong enough to solve alignment, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y09-lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators-c","subject":"lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"next-word-prediction-is-shallow"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators” (2023-04-08) contests Y09. Using the example of text listing products of primes followed by the primes, he argues that predicting text can demand more intelligence than generating it, so the task does not cap out at the level of the human writers. Concludes that predicting all Internet text, including the errors and private thoughts behind it, is a harder task than being a human, while conceding that GPT-4 is not yet as capable as a human in many ways.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a system trained to predict human text is capped at imitating the humans who wrote it, and against the premise that next-token prediction is a shallow task that cannot require deep cognition."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y14. Contrasts safety for superhuman intelligence with other challenges humanity has overcome by learning from mistakes and trying again. Written in response to the March 2023 open letter calling for a six-month pause.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y17. Responding to an open letter calling for a six-month pause on training systems more powerful than GPT-4, he argues that the letter asks for too little.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a short pause (for example six months) is enough."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-b","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) bears on Y17. Setting out what he thinks would actually need to be done, he calls for an indefinite worldwide halt to large training runs, backed by multinational agreements.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It presents an enforced, indefinite and worldwide halt as what would need to be done, not a pause or regulation that will handle the risk."}}},{"id":"yk-y19-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"harm-requires-hostility"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y19. In a general-audience article he repeats the formula after saying that the likely outcome of current methods is an AI that does not care for humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that an AI would harm humans only out of hostility."}}}},{"id":"yk-y21-lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators-c","subject":"lw-2023-gpts-are-predictors-not-imitators","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"human-data-humanlike-mind"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “GPTs are Predictors, not Imitators” (2023-04-08) contests Y21. He argues that predicting human text requires modelling the processes behind it, a different and harder task than being human, so a predictor need not think like the humans it predicts.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-04-08","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that training on human text or behaviour yields human-like thought and motives."}}}},{"id":"yk-y22-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-superintelligence-fast"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y22. Concludes his TIME essay, which calls for an indefinite worldwide moratorium on large training runs, not a six-month pause; the same essay says anyone 'talking of arms races is a fool'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage states the contrary conclusion without giving a reason against the premise that reaching superintelligence is good by default, so speed is what matters, even when read with its message or dialogue turn."}}}},{"id":"yk-y24-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"build-it-before-rivals"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y24. Within his proposal for a worldwide moratorium, he rejects framing AI development as a national arms race on the ground that everyone shares the outcome. Discussing a moratorium that might begin in the United States, he describes the technology as one that no country could own and that would kill people in both countries.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that racing to be first improves the outcome, and against the premise that whoever builds it controls it."}}}},{"id":"yk-y26-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-body-no-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y26. Asks readers to picture a hostile superhuman AI as a fast alien civilisation initially confined to computers, then argues that such confinement would not last because molecular biology can be ordered online.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that intelligence without physical actuators of its own is not dangerous."}}}},{"id":"yk-y27-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y27. Arguing that making superhuman AI safe could take decades, he says that failure on the first attempt leaves no one to learn from it.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that alignment can be learned by trial and error at the frontier."}}}},{"id":"yk-y30-time-2023-shut-it-all-down-c","subject":"time-2023-shut-it-all-down","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"default-outcome-good"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down” (2023-03-29) contests Y30. Opening his case against a six-month pause, he states what he expects from building superhuman AI under present conditions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Page metadata datePublished 2023-03-29T22:01:58Z. The page title currently reads \"The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down\"; the headline is the one crossposted to LessWrong on 2023-04-08."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that the default outcome is good."}}}},{"id":"cn-genai-measures-issued","subject":"cyberspace-administration-of-china","predicate":"enacted","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"cn-generative-ai-interim-measures-2023"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The Cyberspace Administration of China and six other departments issued Order No. 15, the Interim Measures for the Management of Generative Artificial Intelligence Services (生成式人工智能服务管理暂行办法), dated 10 July 2023, to take effect on 15 August 2023.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-10","basis":"publication","note":"The date printed at the foot of the order (day precision). The Cyberspace Administration’s site posted the order on 13 July 2023."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cn-genai-measures-scope","subject":"cn-generative-ai-interim-measures-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"The Measures apply to services that provide generated content to the public within China"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-10","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as stated in the order dated 2023-07-10; effective 2023-08-15."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cn-genai-measures-security-assessment","subject":"cn-generative-ai-interim-measures-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Services with public-opinion attributes or social-mobilisation capacity need a security assessment and algorithm filing"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-10","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as stated in the order dated 2023-07-10; effective 2023-08-15."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ec-g01-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) articulates G01. Opens the paper's summary of its assessment: substitution of AI for labour on most or all tasks makes explosive growth the default prediction of growth models.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"AI able to substitute for human labour on most or all tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G01. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu defines explosive growth as at least ten times the past century's annual growth rate, sustained for at least a decade, and gives a conditional probability.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Conditional on AI automating the vast majority of tasks; explosive growth defined as at least tenfold the past century's growth rate for a decade or more."}}},{"id":"ec-g01-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-from-labour-substitution"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) contests G01. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy questions whether growth models can be extrapolated to growth far outside historical experience. Earlier in the debate he puts the chance of explosive growth at 10–20%. Clancy's answer to Besiroglu's 65%, given on the same condition of AI deployed throughout the economy. He adds that most of the probability is \"clustered around the low end of explosive growth\", and the same turn doubts that growth models can be extrapolated so far.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2","contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives a reason against the premise that growth models remain reliable when extrapolated far beyond historical growth rates; the turn gives a reason (the reach of growth models beyond historical experience) against the premise of the model-based argument."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g02-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"accelerating-growth-from-automated-research"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G02. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu argues that AI restores the population-ideas feedback that drove historical acceleration.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"AI that substitutes for human workers and idea producers; a semi-endogenous growth model in which ideas are non-rival and output, population and ideas feed back on each other."}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G03. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Points to faster growth after the Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions, and to double-digit catch-up growth, as precedent.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g03-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-b","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"long-run-history-suggests-acceleration"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) bears on G03. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy questions whether past accelerations are informative about an acceleration driven by intelligence.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Disputes that past accelerations are informative about an acceleration driven by intelligence; G03 does not require that mechanism, and the same turn grants that past acceleration \"is a good reason to think there is some chance it could happen again\".","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g04-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) contests G04. Based on a CES task model calibrated with a range of substitution parameters: fast automation of most tasks can give a large transitory boost even with bottlenecks. Section 3.1 treats the objection that \"the training or deployment of AI systems will be sufficiently impeded by regulation\"; the authors argue that incentives for AI adoption resemble those for nuclear proliferation, so coordination to slow it is likely to be imperfect.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that partial automation cannot produce explosive growth, by modelling a fast transition with complementary tasks; disputes the premise that regulation of AI training or deployment will keep tasks unautomated for long enough to hold growth down."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"The sentence opens \"even if the other arguments fail to go through and we cannot even attain AI that perfectly substitutes for humans across all tasks\". CES task model with complementary tasks; a fixed stock of inputs reallocated from automated to unautomated tasks; input to automated tasks approximated as infinite (very cheap, very large AI inputs), so finite AI input would reduce the effect; about 90% of tasks automated (f = 0.1 unautomated) within less than ten years; substitution parameter ρ = −2 between tasks, below the range of −1.2 to −0.14 the authors cite as plausible for capital and labour."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu (2023-06) articulates G04. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy gives a verbal version of the Aghion, Jones and Jones task model applied to innovation: with every task required and automation advancing about 1% a year, growth stays steady; only faster or full automation gives explosive growth. Clancy says AI is \"pretty likely to boost growth\" and then lists bottlenecks that slow AGI's takeover of tasks: physical-world tasks, raw materials, training data, the time natural processes take, preferences for human performers, regulation and zero-sum competition. Clancy's closing turn: different sectors are held back by materials, time, data or regulation; sectors that automate easily become cheap and \"no longer count for much of GDP\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located-tier-2"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Every innovation task is required; innovation gets harder each year; displaced workers retrain onto the remaining tasks."}}},{"id":"ec-g04-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"unautomated-tasks-bottleneck-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) contests G04. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu argues that with complementary tasks, scaling digital workers on automated tasks still raises output by one or two orders of magnitude unless a large share of tasks stays unautomated.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that a few unautomated tasks suffice to block explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"conditions":"Tasks are complements; \"digital workers\" on automated tasks scaled up at least tenfold; automation going \"from little to substantial\" over decades rather than about a century; substitution of AI for human labour not unusually hard. In the same turn Besiroglu says that with 25% of tasks unautomated output could still rise by one or two orders of magnitude."}}},{"id":"ec-g05-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-c","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) contests G05. Speaker: Tamay Besiroglu. Besiroglu sets three conditions a resource bottleneck must meet (vital, hard to substitute, impossible to expand by an order of magnitude); he also argues that experiments can be parallelised and that regulation faces strong incentives to be bypassed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Gives reasons in the same turn against the premises that resource limits and experiment times bind."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g05-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-c","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"other-constraints-prevent-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) contests G05. Accepts eventual limits and contests their timing, with an estimate of returns to scale.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Disputes the premise that resource constraints bind soon enough to preclude explosive growth."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."}}}},{"id":"ec-g06-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"no-current-sign-of-explosive-growth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G06. Speaker: Matt Clancy. Clancy answers Besiroglu's point about fast growth in AI training compute.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."}}}},{"id":"ec-g09-erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review-a","subject":"erdil-besiroglu-2023-explosive-growth-review","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Erdil and Besiroglu, “Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments” (2023-10-01) articulates G09. The authors' unconditional estimate. The same paragraph says high confidence \"seems unwarranted\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of v2, the checked version. arXiv submission history (2026 capture of the abstract page): v1 2023-09-20, v2 2023-10-01, v3 2024-07-15."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023-09-20","note":"Date of v1, which was not retrieved."},"attested":{"date":"2023-10-01","note":"Version 2 (2023-10-01) is the earliest retrieved version; v1 has no capture. The v2 PDF itself was captured in 2025."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (re-tiered on 2026-10-25). A scholarly review with an economist author: Tamay Besiroglu held an MPhil in Economics from the University of Cambridge before the text, as his own site says in a capture of 2021-09-15 and his MIT FutureTech profile states (degree of 2020); MIT FutureTech is his affiliation on the v2 title page. This reverses the tier-2 borderline settled on 2026-10-11, whose premise, that neither author was shown to be an economist, did not hold."},"conditions":"Explosive growth defined in the paper as annual real GWP exceeding 130% of its maximum value over all previous years (about ten times growth rates typical of today's frontier economies).","estimates":[{"holder":"Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu","value":"about even odds of widespread automation and subsequent explosive growth","horizon":"by the end of this century (from October 2023)","definition":"annual real gross world product exceeding 130% of its maximum over all previous years","conditional":false,"conditions":"The same paragraph says high confidence \"seems unwarranted\"."}]}}},{"id":"ec-g09-clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection-a","subject":"clancy-besiroglu-2023-great-inflection","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Clancy and Besiroglu, “The Great Inflection? A Debate About AI and Explosive Growth” (2023-06) articulates G09. Speakers: Tamay Besiroglu; Matt Clancy. Besiroglu's estimate conditional on AI automating the vast majority of tasks. In his closing turn he gives 25–75% \"conditional on AGI\". He separately puts the development of such AI this century at about 80%; he does not combine the figures. Clancy's estimate on the same condition, with \"most of that probability clustered around the low end of explosive growth\".","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06","basis":"publication","note":"Page: \"Published June 2023\". The introduction states the conversation \"is based on a series of back-and-forths Matt and Tamay had in spring of 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","claimed":{"date":"2023","note":"\"back-and-forths ... in spring of 2023\"; the original exchange was not retrieved and the published dialogue may be edited."},"attested":{"date":"2023-12-23","note":"Only retrieved capture."},"tier":{"value":2,"basis":"Tier 2 (unchanged). Magazine debate (Asterisk). The magazine introduces Matt Clancy as an economist and Tamay Besiroglu as a research scientist. Judgement recorded: no turn is itself a substantive scholarly argument; each answers the previous turn and argues by verbal sketches of others' models, with no model or derivation of its own, so the debate rule applies to both speakers."},"estimates":[{"holder":"Tamay Besiroglu","value":"65%; at the close 25–75% \"conditional on AGI\"","horizon":"not stated; conditional on the arrival of the AI described","definition":"at least ten times the annual growth rate of the past century, sustained for at least a decade","conditional":true,"conditions":"AI that automates the vast majority of tasks currently performed by humans."},{"holder":"Matt Clancy","value":"10% to 20%, \"depending on how I'm feeling\"","horizon":"not stated; conditional on deploying AI throughout the economy","definition":"Besiroglu's definition (at least tenfold the past century's growth rate for at least a decade)","conditional":true,"conditions":"AI deployed throughout the economy."}]}}},{"id":"ec-m02-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M02. The authors deliberately do not classify exposure as automation versus augmentation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Exposure is not identified with machines taking over tasks.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m03-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-general-purpose-technology-with-lag"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M03. The authors argue LLMs meet general-purpose-technology criteria of pervasiveness, improvement and complementary innovation. The authors note that co-invention requirements typical of general-purpose technologies may slow LLM diffusion.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M03-10) No statement that measured productivity gains lag adoption. (M03-11) Refers to slowed diffusion, not to measured productivity lagging adoption.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M06b. The authors call for policy preparedness and point to prior work on education, training and safety-net reform, but decline to recommend specific policies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"No specific redistributive or compensating policy is argued for.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-a","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) articulates M07. The authors estimate the share of US workers whose occupational tasks are exposed to LLMs, from O*NET task descriptions rated by humans and GPT-4. The authors describe their method: rating task exposure using a rubric applied by human annotators and GPT-4.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."},"conditions":"Exposure measure β (direct plus half of tool-dependent exposure); US occupations; GPT-4-assisted labels."}}},{"id":"ec-m07-eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts-b","subject":"eloundou-et-al-2023-gpts-are-gpts","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Eloundou et al., “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models” (2023-03-17) bears on M07. The authors caution that exposure measures technical feasibility, not realised productivity or automation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"arXiv: submitted 17 Mar 2023 (v1); last revised 21 Aug 2023 (v5). Version v1 retrieved. Not peer-reviewed in this version. The v1 PDF itself is dated 20 March 2023. A later peer-reviewed version (Science, 2024) was not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A caveat on the measure rather than an estimate.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Daniel Rock (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); the other three were at OpenAI or OpenResearch, as the paper states."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) bears on E01. Cites Aghion, Jones and Jones (2019), Trammell and Korinek (2020), Davidson (2021), Nordhaus (2021), Erdil and Besiroglu (2023).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Growth explosion from automated idea production (G02); does not state that AI improves AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."},"conditions":"'Once machines can produce ideas'; 'could', 'potentially'."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E01. Discussing AI safety, the authors say models in which capital recursively self-improves without human input are the most worrying for existential risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) bears on E01. The abstract distinguishes AI letting capital self-replicate from AI letting it self-improve via knowledge production.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"Self-improvement of capital through knowledge production, framed as growth, not AI improving AI's own capabilities.","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) bears on E01. Opening paragraph: the authors say future models may reach AGI and, unlike earlier technologies, could automate R&D itself. The clause names AI creating better AI systems. The authors characterise the 'singularity' hypothesis and add that absent current economic effects cannot refute it because the theory predicts little advance warning. Second of the review's 'robust findings': automating R&D in isolation has ambiguous growth effects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"(E01-27) AI building better AI, without stated acceleration of capabilities. (E01-30) Describes a hypothesis held by others and what it predicts; it does not itself state that AI improves AI, and the authors neither endorse nor reject the hypothesis here. (E01-32) About output growth from automated research in general (G02 territory), not about AI improving AI; it bounds the acceleration rather than rejecting it.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."},"conditions":"(E01-27) Conditional on future models reaching AGI ('may reach'). (E01-32) Automating R&D in isolation; depends on parallelizability and research constraints."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) articulates E01. Abstract sentence contrasting automation of production (self-replication) with automation of R&D (self-improvement). Citing the high capital share in AI R&D (Besiroglu et al., 2024), the authors describe a feedback in which automating AI R&D speeds AI capability growth, then cite calibrated models of this feedback (Erdil et al. 2025; Lifland et al. 2025) as having 'speculative elements'. In the risk subsection, the authors contrast a scenario of acceleration from R&D automation alone with scenarios of automated physical production, each with distinct safety concerns.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."},"conditions":"(E01-28) Within the reviewed growth models; acceleration not sufficient 'in isolation'. (E01-29) 'could'; hedged 'in some sense'. (E01-31) Scenario; 'potential for'."}}},{"id":"ec-e02-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-a","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) articulates E02. Preceded by 'many experts worry that these advances entail existential risk:'. Jones reports warnings from 'a substantial contingent of the A.I. research community, including leading researchers at OpenAI and Google'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"relay","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) bears on E02. Jones's own statement of possibility, followed by growth models in which machines produce ideas.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"'Many cognitive tasks', not essentially all; 'innovating itself' means AI producing ideas, not explicitly improving AI.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E02. Explaining their focus on average wages and the labour share, the authors state that the likeliest transformative long-run scenario is AI outsmarting all humans.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) bears on E02. Definition of AGI used in the review's introduction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Defines AGI as parity with skilled humans on all cognitive tasks ('at least as well as'); it does not state that machines would exceed human cognition.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-a","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) articulates E03. The abstract sets growth gains against existential risk, which it attributes to 'many experts', and frames the paper as a welfare analysis of whether to continue or stop. First of four insights: 'With log utility, the models are remarkably unconcerned with existential risk'. Insight 2 says CRRA utility with γ of 2 or more is 'quite conservative'. Key Point 3: with γ ≤ 1 any risk short of sure annihilation is acceptable for an immediate singularity; with γ = 2 or 3 the cutoffs are much smaller. The 'key exception' to the conservative result: mortality gains are 'in the same units' as existential risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."},"conditions":"(E03-11) Log utility; simple static model. (E03-12) γ = 3; immediate singularity with infinite consumption; no A.I. mortality improvement; ρ − b = 1%, g0 = 2%, m0 = 1%, v(c0) = 6. (E03-13) If A.I.-driven innovation extends life expectancy and reduces mortality."}}},{"id":"ec-e03-gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi-b","subject":"gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Can Socially-Minded Governance Control the AGI Beast?” (2023-11) bears on E03. Refers to the 'potential existential risks' that motivated OpenAI's funders; the model then assumes the risks are real.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A literature and motivation statement, not a substantive economic treatment of the risk; the model treats harm from dangerous users as an expected negative externality (E > 0), not as extinction or loss of control.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E03. The authors frame AI safety as a public good to which public-goods and climate-risk economics could apply.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) articulates E03. Concluding subsection placing AI existential risk within the paper's framing of economic transformation; it goes on to say the scenarios carry different risk profiles.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi-a","subject":"gans-2023-socially-minded-governance-agi","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Gans, “Can Socially-Minded Governance Control the AGI Beast?” (2023-11) articulates E04. Abstract: a model under idealised conditions (AGI risks real, safe AGI possible, socially-minded funders exist) motivated by OpenAI's governance. Case in which the for-profit entity is viable in direct competition; 'they' is the socially-minded entity. Conclusion; Gans adds that whether national or global intervention is needed is left to future research, while the results point to the latter.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Gans is an economist."},"conditions":"(E04-10) Idealised assumptions; non-excludable technology; financial-viability constraint. (E04-11) For-profit entity viable in competition with the socially-minded entity."}}},{"id":"ec-e04-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) bears on E04. Closing sentence of the dangerous-AI subsection.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Lists safety research and governance frameworks as policy responses; it does not analyse developers' incentives, competition or governance structures.","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-jones-2023-ai-dilemma-b","subject":"jones-2023-ai-dilemma","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The A.I. Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2023-11) bears on E05. Distinguishes the paper from Jones (2016) on growth versus lives lost; earlier the section lists Joy, Bostrom, Rees, Posner, Yudkowsky et al. and Ord as having highlighted AI existential risk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"November 2023\". Journal version: AER: Insights, December 2024 (abstract page aeri2024-jones). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"States the paper's own focus relative to the author's earlier work; it does not say that economics neglected the topic.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) articulates E05. Closing their review, Trammell and Korinek say that existential risk from AI, central in futurist discussion, is almost absent from economics, because existing growth models offer no obvious mechanism for it. The authors attribute the profession's inattention to growth singularities to a modelling norm tied to the Kaldor facts, not to the models themselves. Footnote dating Sandberg's 2013 overview of singularity models to before mainstream economists' engagement with transformative AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-b","subject":"trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI (October 2023 version)” (2023-10) bears on E05. The review opens by dating economists' awareness of AI's transformative potential to Simon's prediction.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"A claim about economists' long-standing understanding, not a statement that the topic is new or neglected; it qualifies an 'only recently' reading.","attested":{"date":"2023-11-29","note":"Wayback capture 20231129164044 of the NBER PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Trammell are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision-a","subject":"trammell-korinek-2026-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber-revision","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Trammell and Korinek, “Economic Growth under Transformative AI” (2023-10) articulates E05. Cites Jones (2024, 2025) and Shulman and Thornley (2025), and Trammell and Aschenbrenner (2026) on precaution possibly increasing long-term risk. The authors introduce their synthesis of 'the most influential papers on the topic' of transformative AI and growth. Footnote: most models Sandberg summarised did not spell out how AI would fit standard economic models; 'Our review fills this gap.'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"October 2023, Revised April 2026\". The retrieved PDF is the April 2026 revision. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2026-04","note":"Revision date on the cover of the retrieved PDF; the October 2023 wording is recorded under source source-trammell-korinek-2023-growth-under-transformative-ai-nber."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek is an economist, Trammell an economist (Oxford, GPI)."}}}},{"id":"lg-cn-moonshot-founded-2023","subject":"moonshot-ai","predicate":"founding_stated","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"2023"},"topic":"institutions","statement":"Moonshot AI’s “About” page dates its formal establishment to spring 2023 (“2023年 春天 … 月之暗面（Moonshot AI）正式成立”).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023","note":"The page says “spring 2023”; recorded at year precision."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"lg-gc-bytedance-seed-founded-2023","subject":"bytedance-seed","predicate":"founding_stated","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"2023"},"topic":"institutions","statement":"The ByteDance Seed Team states in its Seed-OSS model card (revision of 26 August 2025) that it was founded in 2023.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023","note":"Year as stated; no month or day given."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"lg-gc-wu-yonghui-google-deepmind-2023","subject":"wu-yonghui","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"google-deepmind"},"topic":"people","statement":"Jiemian reported on 21 February 2025 that Google promoted Wu Yonghui in 2023 to Google Fellow and vice president of research at Google DeepMind.","time":{"kind":"snapshot","date":"2023","note":"Year of the promotion as reported; its month, the start of the role and its end are not established (Jiemian reports his move to ByteDance in February 2025)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"研究副总裁 (vice president of research), Google DeepMind"}},{"id":"lg-gc-zhu-wenjia-bytedance-llm-2023","subject":"zhu-wenjia","predicate":"held_role","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"bytedance"},"topic":"people","statement":"Jiemian reported on 21 February 2025 that Zhu Wenjia led the creation of ByteDance’s first large-model R&D team in 2023 and became its head.","time":{"kind":"snapshot","date":"2023","note":"Year in which, as reported, the team was created and Zhu became its head; month and end not established."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"负责人 (head), 字节跳动首个大模型研发团队 (ByteDance’s first large-model R&D team)"}},{"id":"lg-goo-essential-ai-founding-stated-2023","subject":"essential-ai","predicate":"founding_stated","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"2023"},"topic":"institutions","statement":"Essential AI's press release of 12 December 2023 states that the company was founded in 2023.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023","note":"Year as stated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"lg-goo-parmar-cofounded-essential-ai","subject":"niki-parmar","predicate":"co_founded","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"essential-ai"},"topic":"people","statement":"Essential AI's press release of 12 December 2023 names Niki Parmar as a co-founder of the company.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023","note":"The company's stated founding year; the release gives no date for the person."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"role":"co-founder"}},{"id":"lg-goo-vaswani-cofounded-essential-ai","subject":"ashish-vaswani","predicate":"co_founded","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"essential-ai"},"topic":"people","statement":"Essential AI's press release of 12 December 2023 names Ashish Vaswani as a co-founder of the company.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023","note":"The company's stated founding year; 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Checked against the text as served on 2026-10-27."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"listing":{"count":29,"countBasis":"counted"}}},{"id":"fl-intl-bletchley-private-transparency","subject":"bletchley-declaration-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Includes, within the agenda item on risk-based policies, increased transparency by private actors developing frontier AI capabilities."},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-intl-bletchley-published","subject":"dsit","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"bletchley-declaration-2023"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The Bletchley Declaration was published on GOV.UK on 1 November 2023 (the page’s “First published” date) by the Prime Minister's Office, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"GOV.UK change history; the summit was held on 1-2 November 2023."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-intl-bletchley-chair-developer-testing","subject":"bletchley-chair-safety-testing-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Records the participants' acknowledgement that developers have responsibility to devise and conduct safety testing through evaluations, transparency and other appropriate measures."},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-intl-bletchley-chair-external-evaluations","subject":"bletchley-chair-safety-testing-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Governments recognise an increasing role in seeing that external evaluations are undertaken for frontier AI models developed within their countries, before and after deployment."},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-intl-bletchley-chair-testing-participants","subject":"bletchley-chair-safety-testing-2023","predicate":"lists_participants","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Governments: Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, the United States of America, the United Kingdom. Companies: Amazon Web Services, Anthropic, Google, Google DeepMind, Inflection AI, Meta, Microsoft, Mistral AI, Open AI, xAI."},"topic":"governance","statement":"The chair's statement on safety testing of 2 November 2023 names world leaders representing ten countries and the European Union, and industry leaders of ten companies, including Anthropic, Google DeepMind and 'Open AI', as having recognised the importance of collaborating on testing next-generation AI models.","time":{"kind":"snapshot","date":"2023-11-02","note":"Counts made by Selekoa from the named lists."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"listing":{"count":21,"countBasis":"counted"}}},{"id":"fl-intl-bletchley-chair-testing-published","subject":"dsit","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"bletchley-chair-safety-testing-2023"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The chair's statement of session outcomes on safety testing from the AI Safety Summit was published on GOV.UK on 2 November 2023 by the Prime Minister's Office, the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-us-eo14110-def-dual-use-foundation-model","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Definition of \"dual-use foundation model\" (Sec. 3(k))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the edition states it, dated by its date of publication, 2023-11-01. Signed on 30 October 2023 (heading and signature line); published in the Federal Register of 1 November 2023. Revoked by Executive Order 14148, signed on 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-us-eo14110-sec42a-reporting","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Reporting duty for developers of potential dual-use foundation models (Sec. 4.2(a)(i))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the edition states it, dated by its date of publication, 2023-11-01. Signed on 30 October 2023 (heading and signature line); published in the Federal Register of 1 November 2023. Revoked by Executive Order 14148, signed on 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-us-eo14110-sec42b-threshold","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Interim technical threshold for the Sec. 4.2(a) reporting requirements (Sec. 4.2(b)(i))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the edition states it, dated by its date of publication, 2023-11-01. Signed on 30 October 2023 (heading and signature line); published in the Federal Register of 1 November 2023. Revoked by Executive Order 14148, signed on 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-us-eo14110-signed","subject":"us-white-house","predicate":"enacted","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"us-eo-14110-2023"},"topic":"governance","statement":"Executive Order 14110, \"Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence\", is dated and signed at the White House on 30 October 2023.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-30","basis":"signature","note":"Date of the order as printed; Federal Register publication followed on 1 November 2023."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-us-eo14110-published","subject":"us-office-of-the-federal-register","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"us-eo-14110-2023"},"topic":"governance","statement":"Executive Order 14110 was published in the Federal Register of Wednesday, 1 November 2023 (Vol. 88, No. 210, beginning at p. 75191), as FR Doc. 2023-24283.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Filed on 31 October 2023 per the filing line."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"fl-uk-aisi-launch-chair-statement","subject":"bletchley-chair-safety-testing-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"The United Kingdom has launched the AI Safety Institute"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the statement; the statement gives no separate launch date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cpo-ch-cn-ga-ge-2023-issued","subject":"cn-mofcom","predicate":"enacted","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"cn-mofcom-gac-2023-23"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued joint Announcement No. 23 of 2023, dated 3 July 2023, imposing export controls on gallium- and germanium-related items with effect from 1 August 2023.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-03","basis":"publication","note":"Effective 1 August 2023 (Article 8). Date of issue as the text gives it (the document date or date line), recorded as its date of publication as in earlier admissions; no signing event is shown."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cpo-ch-cn-ga-ge-2023-items","subject":"cn-mofcom-gac-2023-23","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Gallium and germanium items not exportable without a licence"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-08-01","basis":"effective","note":"Date of effect, as the source gives it."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cpo-ch-bis-acr-2023-3a090-thresholds","subject":"us-bis-acr-ifr-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Revised ECCN 3A090.a control parameters (total processing performance and performance density)"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-25","basis":"publication","note":"Provision effective 17 November 2023."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cpo-ch-bis-acr-2023-published","subject":"us-bureau-of-industry-and-security","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"us-bis-acr-ifr-2023"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The Bureau of Industry and Security published the interim final rule \"Implementation of Additional Export Controls: Certain Advanced Computing Items; Supercomputer and Semiconductor End Use; Updates and Corrections\" in the Federal Register of 25 October 2023, effective 17 November 2023, revising the advanced computing controls of 7 October 2022.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-25","basis":"publication","note":"Effective 17 November 2023 (one amendatory instruction effective to 1 January 2026); comments due 18 December 2023."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cpo-pw-helion-microsoft","subject":"helion-energy","predicate":"power_agreement","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"microsoft"},"topic":"compute","statement":"Helion announced on 10 May 2023 an agreement to provide Microsoft electricity from its first fusion power plant, expected online by 2028 and targeting 50 MW or more after a one-year ramp-up, with Constellation as power marketer.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-05-10","basis":"announcement","note":"Date of the announcement, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"transactionStage":"contracted","quantity":{"value":50,"unit":"MW (as worded: '50 MW or greater')","bound":"at_least","measures":"generation_capacity"},"statedDates":[{"kind":"target_operation","date":"2028","statedBy":"helion-energy"}],"power":{"technology":"fusion","mechanism":"ppa"}}},{"id":"ab-fw-rsp-2023-asl2-bio-information-level","subject":"rsp-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"ASL-2 illustration: a system giving bioweapon-related information not findable via a search engine, but too unreliably to be useful"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-19","basis":"effective","note":"Provision as stated in this edition, dated by the edition’s effective date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-fw-rsp-2023-asl3-redteam-cbrn-domains","subject":"rsp-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"ASL-3 deployment red-teaming must cover at least extreme CBRN risks and cybersecurity"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-19","basis":"effective","note":"Provision as stated in this edition, dated by the edition’s effective date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-fw-rsp-2023-asl4-anticipated-misuse-level","subject":"rsp-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Early guess at ASL-4: AI models have become the primary source of national security risk in a major area, such as biological weapons"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-19","basis":"effective","note":"Provision as stated in this edition, dated by the edition’s effective date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-fw-rsp-2023-bio-evaluation-first-area","subject":"rsp-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"First area of evaluation effort is bioweapons risk, with threat models and capabilities set in consultation with biosecurity experts"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-19","basis":"effective","note":"Provision as stated in this edition, dated by the edition’s effective date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-fw-pf-beta-cbrn-category-definition","subject":"preparedness-beta-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"CBRN tracked risk category: risks related to model-assisted creation of chemical, biological, radiological and/or nuclear threats"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12-18","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as stated in this edition, dated by the edition’s publication date."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-hr4702-introduced","subject":"us-house-of-representatives","predicate":"introduced","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"us-bill-hr-4702-118-introduced"},"topic":"governance","statement":"H.R. 4702 of the 118th Congress, the Securing Gene Synthesis Act, was introduced in the House of Representatives on 18 July 2023 by Representative Anna G. Eshoo, referred to the Committee on Energy and Commerce, and referred to its Subcommittee on Health on 21 July 2023.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-18","note":"Introduction date in the official bill-status record; the referral to the Subcommittee on Health is dated 21 July 2023 and is the latest action the record lists. The date is the date of introduction; a status record carries no date basis, as the dataset’s own legislative status records do not."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-s2399-ai-risk-assessment","subject":"us-bill-s-2399-118-introduced","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Proposed duty on the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response to assess emerging risks of artificial intelligence"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-19","basis":"publication","note":"Provision of the bill as introduced, dated by the publication of the introduced print of 19 July 2023 (the dateline of the print and the date in its govinfo package metadata, with the official bill-status record cited below); introduction in the Senate is the event behind that date. The bill-status record lists no later text version."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-s2399-introduced","subject":"us-senate","predicate":"introduced","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"us-bill-s-2399-118-introduced"},"topic":"governance","statement":"S. 2399 of the 118th Congress, the Artificial Intelligence and Biosecurity Risk Assessment Act, was introduced in the Senate on 19 July 2023 by Senator Edward J. Markey, with Senator Ted Budd as an original cosponsor, and read twice and referred to the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-19","note":"Introduction date in the official bill-status record and in the bill's own dateline. The status record as served on 28 October 2026 lists no later action than the referral of 19 July 2023. The date is the date of introduction; a status record carries no date basis, as the dataset’s own legislative status records do not."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-s2400-federal-purchase-restriction","subject":"us-bill-s-2400-118-introduced","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Proposed restriction on purchases by federal agencies and recipients of federal funds"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-19","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the bill stood when introduced in the Senate on 19 July 2023. Dated by the publication of the bill as introduced (the print’s dateline and the govinfo package date), as the schema admits no `introduction` basis; the introduction itself is recorded by recorded separately."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-s2400-introduced","subject":"us-senate","predicate":"introduced","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"us-bill-s-2400-118-introduced"},"topic":"governance","statement":"S. 2400 of the 118th Congress, the Securing Gene Synthesis Act, was introduced in the Senate on 19 July 2023 by Senator Edward J. Markey and read twice and referred to the Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-19","note":"Date of introduction in the Senate, from the official bill-status record and the bill's own dateline; the record carries no basis, as the dataset's own legislative status records do not. The status record lists one text version, as introduced, and no action later than the referral of 19 July 2023, but it carries the generation stamp 2025-12-05, so that absence of later action is bounded by that stamp and not by a fresh congressional check on the check date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-s2400-screening-regulation","subject":"us-bill-s-2400-118-introduced","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Proposed duty on the Secretary of Health and Human Services to require screening protocols by regulation"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-07-19","basis":"publication","note":"Provision of the bill as introduced, dated by the publication of the introduced print of 19 July 2023 (the dateline of the print and the date in its govinfo package metadata); introduction in the Senate is the event behind that date. The bill-status record lists no later text version."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-hhs-2023-benchtop-manufacturers","subject":"us-hhs-synthetic-nucleic-acids-guidance-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Recommended actions for manufacturers of benchtop nucleic acid synthesis equipment"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the 2023 expression states it, dated by its publication. The 2010 guidance addressed providers of synthetic double-stranded DNA and not equipment manufacturers."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-hhs-2023-provider-screening","subject":"us-hhs-synthetic-nucleic-acids-guidance-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Recommended provider actions on receiving an order: sequence screening, customer identity verification and follow-up"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the 2023 expression states it, dated by its publication."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-hhs-2023-published","subject":"us-aspr","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"us-hhs-synthetic-nucleic-acids-guidance-2023"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response published the Screening Framework Guidance for Providers and Users of Synthetic Nucleic Acids in the Federal Register of 13 October 2023, stating that it sets out baseline standards for the gene and genome synthesis industry and best practices for all entities involved in the provision, use and transfer of synthetic nucleic acids.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"Federal Register issue of 13 October 2023 (88 FR 70998). The notice states no separate effective date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-hhs-2023-refuse-and-report","subject":"us-hhs-synthetic-nucleic-acids-guidance-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Recommended action where concerns are not resolved: do not fulfil the order and contact designated government entities"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the 2023 expression states it, dated by its publication."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-hhs-2023-scope","subject":"us-hhs-synthetic-nucleic-acids-guidance-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Scope: all types of synthetic nucleic acids, and the categories of entity addressed"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the 2023 expression states it, dated by its publication."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-hhs-2023-supersedes-2010","subject":"us-hhs-synthetic-nucleic-acids-guidance-2023","predicate":"supersedes_document","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"us-hhs-synthetic-dsdna-guidance-2010"},"topic":"governance","statement":"The 2023 Screening Framework Guidance for Providers and Users of Synthetic Nucleic Acids states that advances in the field motivated the United States Government to review and revise the 2010 Screening Framework Guidance for Providers of Synthetic Double-Stranded DNA, and cites the 2010 guidance at 75 FR 62820.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-10-13","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the publication of the revising expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-eo14110-sec44b-ostp-framework","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Direction to the Director of OSTP to establish a nucleic acid synthesis procurement screening framework within 180 days (Sec. 4.4(b)(i))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the edition states it, dated by the Federal Register publication of 1 November 2023; the order is signed 30 October 2023. Executive Order 14110 was revoked by Executive Order 14148 of 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-eo14110-sec44bii-nist-engagement","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Direction to Commerce, through NIST, to develop screening specifications and conformity-assessment practices with industry (Sec. 4.4(b)(ii))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the edition states it, dated by the Federal Register publication of 1 November 2023; signed 30 October 2023. The order was revoked on 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-scr-eo14110-sec44biii-funding-requirement","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Direction to agencies that fund life-sciences research to make adherence to the framework a requirement of funding (Sec. 4.4(b)(iii))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the edition states it, dated by the Federal Register publication of 1 November 2023; signed 30 October 2023. The order was revoked on 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-gov-uk-bss-2023-ai-convergence","subject":"uk-biological-security-strategy-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Risk framing: convergence of bioscience with machine learning and AI as a new cyberbiosecurity risk"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-12","basis":"publication","note":"Dated by the strategy's publication on GOV.UK."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-gov-us-eo14110-sec42ai-bio-redteam","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Interim content of the reported red-team results: biological weapons barrier to entry (Sec. 4.2(a)(i)(C))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the text states it, dated by its date of publication, 1 November 2023. Signed on 30 October 2023 (heading and signature line); published in the Federal Register of 1 November 2023. Revoked by Executive Order 14148, signed on 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-gov-us-eo14110-sec44-purpose","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Purpose of the section on AI and CBRN threats, with a particular focus on biological weapons (Sec. 4.4(a))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the text states it, dated by its date of publication, 1 November 2023. Signed on 30 October 2023 (heading and signature line); published in the Federal Register of 1 November 2023. Revoked by Executive Order 14148, signed on 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-gov-us-eo14110-sec44ai-dhs-evaluation","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Evaluation of the potential for AI to be misused to enable CBRN threats, within 180 days (Sec. 4.4(a)(i))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the text states it, dated by its date of publication, 1 November 2023. Signed on 30 October 2023 (heading and signature line); published in the Federal Register of 1 November 2023. Revoked by Executive Order 14148, signed on 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-gov-us-eo14110-sec44aii-academies-study","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Contracted National Academies study on AI and biosecurity risks (Sec. 4.4(a)(ii))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the text states it, dated by its date of publication, 1 November 2023. Signed on 30 October 2023 (heading and signature line); published in the Federal Register of 1 November 2023. Revoked by Executive Order 14148, signed on 20 January 2025."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-gov-us-eo14110-sec41b-doe-tools","subject":"us-eo-14110-2023","predicate":"states_provision","object":{"kind":"literal","value":"Department of Energy evaluation tools for biological and other threat outputs, and model guardrails (Sec. 4.1(b))"},"topic":"governance","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-01","basis":"publication","note":"Provision as the edition states it, dated by the Federal Register publication of 1 November 2023, which is the publication date the document version carries; the order is signed 30 October 2023 and the directive runs 270 days from the date of the order. The dataset's own provision records of this order (for example recorded separately) are dated the same way."},"resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-soice-articulates","subject":"soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint “Can large language models democratize access to dual-use biotechnology?” (arXiv v1, 6 June 2023) states that its results suggest that large language models will make pandemic-class agents widely accessible as soon as they are credibly identified, even to people with little or no laboratory training.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission, the expression quoted."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the claim as a suggestion drawn from a one-hour classroom exercise."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d2-soice-contests","subject":"soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint \"Can large language models democratize access to dual-use biotechnology?\" (arXiv v1, 6 June 2023) states that the agents it discusses would become widely accessible as soon as they are credibly identified, even to people with little or no laboratory training, against the premise that laboratory execution is the binding barrier.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission, the expression quoted."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"The contesting point is one clause of a conclusion drawn from a one-hour classroom exercise.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The sentence addresses the premise about laboratory training directly rather than asserting only a contrary conclusion."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d5-soice-context","subject":"soice-llm-dual-use-2023-06","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint of 6 June 2023 states that promising nonproliferation measures include pre-release evaluations of language models by third parties, curation of training datasets, and verifiable screening of all DNA generated by synthesis providers.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-06","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission, the expression quoted."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Screening is one of three measures the preprint proposes, not a sole control point.","missing":"The passage proposes screening among three promising measures; it does not state that mitigation of AI-related biological risk depends on screening, which is the proposition’s criterion."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-sandbrink-articulates","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandbrink's preprint on AI and biological misuse (arXiv v1, 24 June 2023) states that large language models such as GPT-4 are already able to provide dual-use information that could have enabled historical biological weapons efforts to succeed.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; the article was revised to v8 on 23 December 2023, and only v1 is cited."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a claim about information provision, with historical programmes as the comparison."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d4-sandbrink-articulates","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandbrink's preprint (arXiv v1, 24 June 2023) differentiates large language models from biological design tools, stating that language models in particular lower barriers to biological misuse while design tools expand the capabilities of sophisticated actors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; only v1 is cited."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Differentiates the two classes by the barriers each affects and by the actors each favours."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d5-sandbrink-articulates","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandbrink's preprint (arXiv v1, 24 June 2023) states that enhanced screening of gene synthesis is among the measures key to reducing the risks it describes.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; only v1 is cited."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated for the risks the preprint attributes to design tools in particular."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d7-sandbrink-context","subject":"sandbrink-ai-biological-misuse-2023-06","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Sandbrink's preprint (arXiv v1, 24 June 2023) states that biological design tools will expand the capabilities of sophisticated actors, and proposes interventions to deter biological misuse by such actors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-06-24","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 submission; only v1 is cited."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the point as a contrast with the barrier-lowering effect it attributes to language models.","missing":"The passage states that design tools expand the capabilities of sophisticated actors and proposes interventions aimed at them; it does not state that assessment must cover actors who already hold relevant skills, which is the proposition’s criterion."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d6-seger-articulates","subject":"seger-open-sourcing-2023-09","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"\"Open-Sourcing Highly Capable Foundation Models\" (arXiv v1, submitted 29 September 2023) states that for some highly capable foundation models likely to be developed in the near future, open-sourcing may pose sufficiently extreme risks to outweigh the benefits, and names access to biological weapons knowledge among the dangerous capabilities at issue.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-09-29","basis":"publication","note":"Submission date of arXiv v1 as given by the abstract page and the PDF's own stamp, although the identifier belongs to the November 2023 series."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Scoped by the authors to some highly capable models expected in the near future."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d4-moulange-articulates","subject":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint \"Towards Responsible Governance of Biological Design Tools\" (arXiv v1, 27 November 2023) states that biological design tools pose distinct regulatory challenges and that regulatory proposals tailored to large language models may be less effective for them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp on the PDF."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the difference in terms of what regulation each class needs."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d5-moulange-context","subject":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-synthesis-screening-control-point"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint of 27 November 2023 states that the design capabilities of biological design tools could be used to evade DNA screening techniques, against the premise that screening at synthesis is a dependable control point.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp on the PDF."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a possibility (\"could be used\"), not as an observed outcome.","missing":"The passage states that the design capabilities could be used to evade screening; it does not contest screening’s role as a control point on which mitigation depends, which the contesting relation would require."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d6-moulange-articulates","subject":"moulange-bdt-governance-2023-11","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint of 27 November 2023 identifies, among the challenges of regulating biological design tools, the potential for safeguards to be circumvented by open-sourcing model weights.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-11-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp on the PDF."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated of biological design tools, whose weights the paper says are often released openly."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d2-batalis-context","subject":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-physical-bottleneck"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"CSET's explainer \"AI and Biorisk\" (December 2023) states that the barrier to scientific information is not high even for beginners, and that feasibility depends on both information and hands-on production success, without stating which of the two limits biological misuse.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12","basis":"publication","note":"Month given on the CSET publication page; the day is not stated, so the date stays a month."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated across two of the explainer's own conclusions — that the information barrier is not high and that feasibility also requires hands-on production success — and in no passage that ranks the two.","missing":"The explainer states that information and hands-on production success are both required; it does not state that access to information is not the barrier that limits biological misuse."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d4-batalis-articulates","subject":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-design-tools-distinct"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"CSET's explainer of December 2023 treats biological design tools as a separate class from chatbots, stating that their use in its current state requires both scientific and programming expertise.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12","basis":"publication","note":"Month given on the CSET publication page; the day is not stated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"States the difference as one of required expertise and of the user population."}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d7-batalis-context","subject":"batalis-ai-biorisk-explainer-2023-12","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-skilled-actor-scope"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"CSET's explainer of December 2023 states that the biorisk landscape is not uniform and that specific scenarios and actors should be assessed individually, without stating that assessment must cover actors who already hold relevant skills.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2023-12","basis":"publication","note":"Month given on the CSET publication page; the day is not stated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A key takeaway of the explainer, quoted as the explainer words it.","missing":"The explainer asks for scenario- and actor-specific assessment in general, but does not state that actors who already hold relevant scientific skills must be within the scope of assessment."}}}],"sources":[],"evidence":[],"at":{"entities":[0,1,2,3,4,5,7,9,10,12,13,14,15,18,19,21,33,34,38,39,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,53,54,65,67,71,74,77,78,95,103,106,112,119,124,141,143,146,147,151,157,158,159,160,161,163,165,169,172,173,179,180,181,182,183,197,208,214,216,217,218,225,226,227,228,229,230,232,233,235,236,237,238,239,240,241,243,249,250,251,383,435,438,502,503,532,533,564,598,599,601,605,615,618,634,635,643,649,652,653,666,667,669,678,679,681,695,713,714,721,723,737,740,747,751,754,782,785,803,807,810,820,824,831,832,835,838,843,846,847,856,865,876,877,881,889,890,895,902,915,930,1018,1019,1025,1026,1038,1064,1065,1081,1085,1106,1152,1208,1212,1213,1215,1216,1217,1225,1228,1229,1234,1243,1248,1249,1250],"claims":[3,4,7,8,9,10,11,16,17,41,45,46,52,55,56,57,69,116,126,137,138,154,167,168,181,182,217,218,219,237,238,239,240,241,242,243,256,259,264,265,272,275,276,281,282,283,289,310,311,312,317,318,326,327,328,334,336,337,339,340,341,342,343,344,351,352,353,354,357,366,367,368,369,370,371,372,389,390,399,400,401,402,446,447,448,449,450,516,523,524,525,560,561,631,634,635,636,637,638,639,659,660,663,671,672,673,674,675,676,677,678,679,680,681,682,683,684,685,686,687,688,689,690,691,692,693,694,695,987,1022,1036,1050,1078,1098,1099,1116,1129,1139,1143,1157,1162,1182,1238,1239,1240,1244,1245,1247,1254,1264,1265,1270,1271,1272,1277,1278,1281,1290,1293,1337,1347,1438,1442,1443,1496,1497,1498,1501,1502,1509,1510,1511,1517,1525,1526,1527,1530,1539,1541,1555,1556,1557,1565,1627,1628,1629,1630,1631,1632,1633,1634,1635,1636,1637,1638,1639,1640,1641,1642,1643,1644,1645,1646,1647,1648,1649,1650,1651,1652,1653,1654,1655,1656,1657,1658,1659,1660,1661,1662,1663,1664,1665,1666,1667,1668,1669,1670,1671,2042,2043,2044,2045,2046,2047,2120,2121,2122,2123,2124,2125,2192,2193,2206,2222,2223,2235,2270,2275,2276,2285,2294,2316,2335,2336,2468,2469,2470,2482,2483,2484,2485,2486,2487,2488,2489,2490,2491,2492,2636,2637,2638,2639,2640,2641,2642,2643,2644,2645,2646,2738,2895,2896,2897,2898,2899,2900,2901,2902,2903,2921,2929,2930,2931,2932,2933,2934,2935,2936,2937,2938,2939,2940,2941,2942,2943,2969,2970,2971,2972,2973,3024,3055,3056,3063,3064,3175,3246,3247,3248,3249,3250,3287,3288,3289,3290,3291,3292,3293,3294,3295,3296,3297,3298,3299,3300,3301,3324,3325,3326,3327,3328,3329,3412,3413,3414,3415,3416,3417,3418,3419,3420,3421,3422,3423,3424,3425],"sources":[],"evidence":[]},"version":"1lg47t7"}