{"entities":[{"id":"eliezer-yudkowsky","name":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","type":"person"},{"id":"metr-o1-preview-report","name":"METR preliminary o1-preview evaluation (2024)","type":"document"},{"id":"mark-zuckerberg","name":"Mark Zuckerberg","type":"person"},{"id":"deepseek","shortName":"DeepSeek","type":"organisation"},{"id":"liang-wenfeng","name":"Liang Wenfeng / 梁文锋","type":"person"},{"id":"qwen-team","shortName":"Qwen Team","type":"organisation"},{"id":"zhipu","shortName":"Zhipu AI","type":"organisation"},{"id":"tsinghua","name":"Tsinghua University / 清华大学","type":"organisation"},{"id":"tang-jie","name":"Tang Jie / 唐杰","type":"person"},{"id":"chatglm-report","name":"ChatGLM research history and techniques","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences","shortName":"Yudkowsky, The Sun is big, but superintelligences will not spare Earth a little sunlight (2024)","type":"document"},{"id":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","shortName":"Acemoglu, The Simple Macroeconomics of AI (2024)","type":"document"},{"id":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","shortName":"Korinek and Suh, Scenarios for the Transition to AGI (2024)","type":"document"},{"id":"jones-2024-ai-dilemma-aer-insights","shortName":"Jones, The AI Dilemma (2024)","type":"document"},{"id":"daron-acemoglu","name":"Daron Acemoglu","type":"person"},{"id":"charles-i-jones","name":"Charles I. Jones","type":"person"},{"id":"anton-korinek","name":"Anton Korinek","type":"person"},{"id":"donghyun-suh","name":"Donghyun Suh","type":"person"},{"id":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","shortName":"Lumen Orbit white paper (2024)","type":"document"},{"id":"ascend-results-release-2024","shortName":"Thales Alenia Space, ASCEND results (2024)","type":"document"},{"id":"starcloud","shortName":"Starcloud","type":"organisation"},{"id":"thales-alenia-space","name":"Thales Alenia Space","type":"organisation"},{"id":"itif-shift-rhetoric-2024-04","name":"The Shift in Rhetoric on AI and Biothreats Is a Lesson on the Risks of Premature Regulation","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"itif-shift-rhetoric","label":"ITIF blog post (30 April 2024)","publisherId":"itif","publishedAt":"2024-04-30","dateNote":"The post's own byline reads \"By Martin Makaryan | April 30, 2024\" (`itif-2024`)."}},{"id":"kapoor-open-foundation-models-2024-02","name":"On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"kapoor-open-foundation-models","label":"arXiv v1 (27 February 2024)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2024-02-27","dateNote":"The PDF's arXiv stamp reads \"arXiv:2403.07918v1 [cs.CY] 27 Feb 2024\" and the paper's own dateline reads \"February 27, 2024\" (`kapoor-open-2024`)."}},{"id":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk-2024-12","name":"The Reality of AI and Biorisk","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk","label":"arXiv v1 (2 December 2024)","publisherId":"arxiv","publishedAt":"2024-12-02","dateNote":"The PDF's arXiv stamp reads \"arXiv:2412.01946v1 [cs.AI] 2 Dec 2024\"; the paper's own front matter reads \"Released as a preprint on December 4, 2024\" (`peppin-reality-2024`). The stamp date is used, and the discrepancy is recorded rather than resolved."}},{"id":"rand-bio-redteam-report-2024","name":"The Operational Risks of AI in Large-Scale Biological Attacks: Results of a Red-Team Study","type":"document","documentVersion":{"family":"rand-bio-redteam","label":"Research report RR-A2977-2, published 25 January 2024","publisherId":"rand-corporation","publishedAt":"2024-01-25","dateNote":"Date from RAND's publication page for RR-A2977-2; the report PDF itself carries only '© 2024 RAND Corporation'."}}],"claims":[{"id":"eval-i-o1-method","subject":"metr-o1-preview-report","predicate":"uses_method_from","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"metr-gpt4o-report"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"METR’s o1-preview report explicitly reuses the general-autonomy test suite from its GPT-4o report.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09-12","basis":"publication","note":"Publication date, not the date of the underlying evaluation."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"method":"General-autonomy test task suite"}},{"id":"xm-zuckerberg-strategy","subject":"mark-zuckerberg","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"meta-open-strategy-2024"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Mark Zuckerberg authored Meta’s July 2024 open-AI strategy essay.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-07-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date of this source expression; not an invention or implementation date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cn-deepseek-v3","subject":"deepseek","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deepseek-v3-report"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"DeepSeek published its V3 training report.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of this source expression or announcement, not a separately verified implementation date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cn-liang-v3","subject":"liang-wenfeng","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"deepseek-v3-report"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Wenfeng Liang is listed among the V3 report’s contributors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of this source expression or announcement, not a separately verified implementation date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cn-qwen25-release","subject":"qwen-team","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"qwen25-announcement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Qwen Team published the Qwen2.5 announcement later cited in DeepSeek-R1.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09-19","basis":"publication","note":"Date of this source expression or announcement, not a separately verified implementation date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cn-zhipu-chatglm","subject":"zhipu","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"chatglm-report"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Zhipu AI is a named institutional affiliation of the joint ChatGLM report.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of this source expression or announcement, not a separately verified implementation date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cn-tsinghua-chatglm","subject":"tsinghua","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"chatglm-report"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Tsinghua University is the other named institutional affiliation of the ChatGLM report.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of this source expression or announcement, not a separately verified implementation date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cn-tang-chatglm","subject":"tang-jie","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"chatglm-report"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jie Tang appears in the ChatGLM report’s Team GLM author list.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of this source expression or announcement, not a separately verified implementation date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cn-chatglm-rlhf","subject":"chatglm-report","predicate":"discusses","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"rlhf"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The ChatGLM report describes instruction tuning followed by SFT and RLHF, with ChatGPT explicitly named as a motivation.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-18","basis":"publication","note":"Date of this source expression or announcement, not a separately verified implementation date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"yk-y18-lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences-c","subject":"lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"earth-not-worth-taking"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Sun is big, but superintelligences will not spare Earth a little sunlight” (2024-09-23) contests Y18. Concludes his reply to the claim that, because the solar system is large, superintelligences will leave Earth alone: a tiny cost is still a cost to minds that do not value us. Answering the claim that a superintelligence would leave Earth alone because the Solar System is big, he argues by analogy that great wealth does not imply giving a small share to any particular party. Replies to the suggestion that humanity could trade with superintelligences for sunlight: Ricardo's law assumes each party's labour goes on existing and does not show that keeping humans is more profitable than using their share.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09-23","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that a superintelligence would leave us a small share, because sparing Earth would cost it very little, and against the premise that humans could trade with a superintelligence for what we need."}}}},{"id":"ec-g08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"modest-near-term-ai-productivity-effect"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-04-05) articulates G08. A task-based estimate using Hulten's theorem: the share of tasks exposed to AI times the average task-level cost saving. The GDP effect after an assumed investment response; under the investment assumptions of earlier automation the upper bound rises to 1.6–1.8%.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-05","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"April 5, 2024\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (MIT Economics, author-hosted PDF) writing for a core economics venue: prepared for Economic Policy; NBER Working Paper 32487; journal version in Economic Policy."},"conditions":"Task-based model; cost savings at the task level; existing estimates of exposure (about 4.6% of tasks affected within ten years) and of cost savings (15.4%)."}}},{"id":"ec-g09-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"explosive-growth-estimates"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-04-05) bears on G09. Compares his ten-year estimate with larger forecasts. A footnote cites Davidson (2021) among those who expect \"explosive\" growth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-05","basis":"publication","note":"Title page \"April 5, 2024\"."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Concerns the next ten years and current AI; does not assess explosive growth this century.","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the PDF."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (MIT Economics, author-hosted PDF) writing for a core economics venue: prepared for Economic Policy; NBER Working Paper 32487; journal version in Economic Policy."}}}},{"id":"ec-m02-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-as-task-automation"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) articulates M02. Acemoglu models AI in a task framework where automation expands the set of tasks allocated to capital, alongside task complementarity, deepening and new tasks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Task-based model with tasks allocated between capital and labour by comparative advantage."}}},{"id":"ec-m05-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machines-cheaper-at-every-task"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on M05. Acemoglu lists a revolutionary, near-singularity scenario among four possible macro effects, says it cannot be ruled out, and excludes it from his analysis. Acemoglu argues that better wage and productivity outcomes depend on AI creating new tasks for workers, which he says is feasible in theory but not the industry's current focus.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(M05-39) Acknowledges a transformative scenario as possible but does not state or model machines doing all tasks, including new ones, more cheaply. (M05-40) Presupposes that new tasks in which labour is productive can be created; does not consider machines outcompeting labour in them.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m06a-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"automation-lowers-labour-income"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) articulates M06a. Using Acemoglu and Restrepo (2022) general-equilibrium estimates, Acemoglu finds AI's wage effects more evenly spread than earlier automation but negative for low-education women and widening the capital–labour income gap.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Exposure measures from Eloundou et al. with easy/hard task distinction; propagation matrix from 1980–2016."}}},{"id":"ec-m06b-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"compensating-policy-for-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on M06b. Acemoglu argues that new-task creation with better wage outcomes may need new institutions and regulation and a reorientation of the AI industry.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Calls for policy to redirect technology rather than redistribution or compensation.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m07-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"task-based-exposure-measurement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on M07. Acemoglu converts Eloundou et al.'s task exposure measure into a wage-bill-weighted share of US labour tasks exposed to AI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Re-aggregates another text's task-based exposure estimates rather than measuring exposure from task descriptions itself.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-m08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-productivity-over-next-decade"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-04-05) articulates M08. Acemoglu applies a Hulten's-theorem task framework to exposure and cost-saving estimates to bound AI's ten-year TFP effect, against much larger forecasts (Goldman Sachs, McKinsey). Allowing for hard-to-learn tasks where AI gains are smaller lowers the ten-year TFP bound. Acemoglu converts the TFP bounds to GDP effects under two investment-response assumptions. The author-hosted version of 5 April 2024 gives no more than 0.71% over ten years, and less than 0.55% allowing for hard tasks; the NBER version of May 2024 gives 0.66% and 0.53%.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-05","basis":"publication","note":"Title page of the author-hosted version: \"April 5, 2024\". The NBER version (cover \"May 2024\") gives different figures; its passages are dated May 2024 by their source."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2025-01-06","note":"Only retrieved capture of the author-hosted PDF; the current copy retrieved on 2026-10-25 is byte-identical to it. The May 2024 passages are known from a current copy of the NBER version."},"tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"(April version) Task-level cost savings from existing exposure and productivity estimates; the second figure adds the author’s easy/hard-task assumptions. (M08-04) Gains from cost savings at task level via automation and task complementarity only; excludes new tasks, deepening of automation and science-transforming effects; US economy. (M08-05) As above, plus easy/hard task classification assumptions. (M08-06) Modest investment response (capital rising in proportion to TFP) versus an investment boom like earlier automation."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-b","subject":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Suh, “Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) bears on E01. Following Aghion et al. (2019) and Trammell and Korinek (2023), the model shows a 'type II singularity' (infinite output in finite time) once automation passes a threshold.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2024\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","missing":"Self-reinforcing growth from automated R&D (G02); AI does not improve AI in the model.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Suh are economists."},"conditions":"Sufficient automation of final-output and knowledge production; constant saving rate and allocation; no depreciation."}}},{"id":"ec-e01-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-improving-ai-accelerates-capability"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on E01. Explains the paper's scope; the example given is DeepMind's protein-folding and crystal-structure work.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"About AI changing scientific research generally, not AI improving AI; a timing judgement for the paper's horizon, not a rejection of the possibility.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."},"conditions":"Within a 10-year horizon."}}},{"id":"ec-e02-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-b","subject":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Suh, “Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) bears on E02. The paper models wages and output under scenarios that 'may culminate' in AGI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2024\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Defines AGI as ability to perform all human tasks (M05-type), not cognitive superiority.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Suh are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e02-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"machine-intelligence-exceeds-humans-in-all-domains"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on E02. Footnote 1 cites Korinek and Suh (2024) and those who see a confirmation of Kurzweil's (2005) singularity forecast; Acemoglu contrasts 'more grounded' forecasters.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"relay","missing":"Reports others' AGI expectations (all tasks, M05-type); no cognitive superiority stated and not Acemoglu's view.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ec-e03-jones-2024-ai-dilemma-aer-insights-a","subject":"jones-2024-ai-dilemma-aer-insights","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-existential-risk-in-economic-analysis"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Jones, “The AI Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2024-12) articulates E03. Published version of Jones's working paper; the abstract attributes existential risk from a misaligned superintelligence to 'many experts'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref record doi:10.1257/aeri.20230570 (issued 2024-12). Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"AER: Insights (AEA journal); Jones is an economist."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-a","subject":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Suh, “Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) articulates E05. Final list of next steps after a 'compute-centric' model of the transition to AGI.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2024\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Suh are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi-b","subject":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Korinek and Suh, “Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) bears on E05. Followed by Good (1965) on an intelligence explosion, Bostrom (2014) on superintelligence and Yudkowsky (2013) on 'several of the economic implications of the transition to AGI'. Literature review entry on Jones's existential-risk paper.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"March 2024\". Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"(E05-23) Connects an economics paper to the superintelligence literature by citation; citation is not engagement with its claims, and the cited authors are non-economists. (E05-24) Acknowledges existential risk as part of AGI discussion; the paper itself does not model it.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); Korinek and Suh are economists."}}}},{"id":"ec-e05-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-b","subject":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"economics-engagement-with-superintelligence"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) bears on E05. First of four possible medium-run macro effects of AI; the paper analyses the more modest task-level effects.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Cover \"May 2024\". The economics-growth pack records an author-hosted version dated 2024-04-05. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"Explicitly sets the singularity aside from the analysis; it neither states nor rejects AI self-improvement or superintelligence, and the 'singularity' meant is a productivity revolution.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue)."}}}},{"id":"ap-daron-acemoglu-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai","subject":"daron-acemoglu","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-05) credits Daron Acemoglu as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-05","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-charles-i-jones-jones-2024-ai-dilemma-aer-insights","subject":"charles-i-jones","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"jones-2024-ai-dilemma-aer-insights"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The AI Dilemma: Growth versus Existential Risk” (2024-12) credits Charles I. Jones as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-anton-korinek-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","subject":"anton-korinek","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) credits Anton Korinek as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-donghyun-suh-korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi","subject":"donghyun-suh","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"korinek-suh-2024-scenarios-transition-agi"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Scenarios for the Transition to AGI” (2024-03) credits Donghyun Suh as one of its 2 authors.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lw-2024-the-sun-is-big-but-superintelligences"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The Sun is big, but superintelligences will not spare Earth a little sunlight” (2024-09-23) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09-23","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cpo-orb-ascend-results","subject":"thales-alenia-space","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ascend-results-release-2024"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Thales Alenia Space announced the results of the ASCEND feasibility study on 27 June 2024.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Dateline of the release."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc1-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc1-orbital-solar-supply"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Lumen Orbit white paper (September 2024) argues that data centres in orbit can use solar power around the clock, unhindered by night, weather and the atmosphere.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission; this admission could not reach the Archive."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc2-ascend-2024","subject":"ascend-results-release-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc2-radiative-cooling-advantage"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The ASCEND results release (June 2024) states that space data centres would not require water to cool them.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc2-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc2-radiative-cooling-advantage"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Lumen Orbit white paper (September 2024) argues that orbital data centres can lower cooling costs by passive radiative cooling to space.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc3-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc3-terrestrial-constraints"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Lumen Orbit white paper (September 2024) argues that orbital data centres can be scaled almost indefinitely without the physical or permitting constraints faced on Earth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc4-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc4-launch-cost-condition"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Lumen Orbit white paper (September 2024) assumes a long-term launch price of about $30 per kilogram and argues that at such prices launch is no longer a primary cost driver.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission."},"estimates":[{"holder":"stated in the text","value":"about USD 30 per kg","horizon":"as stated in the text","definition":"launch price per kilogram","conditional":true,"conditions":"launch price per kilogram, stated expectation"}]}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc5-ascend-2024","subject":"ascend-results-release-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc5-lifecycle-emissions"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The ASCEND results release (June 2024) states that, to significantly reduce the CO2 emissions of data processing and storage, space data centres would require a launcher ten times less emissive over its lifecycle.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-06-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Conditional on a launcher ten times less emissive over its lifecycle."}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc6-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc6-heat-rejection-limit"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Lumen Orbit white paper (September 2024) states that a gigawatt-scale orbital data centre would need radiators dissipating gigawatts of heat, by far the largest deployed in space, while estimating them at under half the solar-array size.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"a statement that heat rejection is a significant constraint: the paper presents the radiator requirement as manageable","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc7-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc7-radiation-effects"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Lumen Orbit white paper (September 2024) states that shielding is required against radiation-induced latch-up, transients and total-dose effects in sensitive components, while arguing that shielding mass per unit of compute falls with container size.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc8-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc8-no-repair"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Lumen Orbit white paper (September 2024) states that its design lets compute containers and other modules be swapped out to replace old or faulty equipment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"a statement that repair in orbit is impracticable: it describes a design with swappable modules","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc11-lumen-2024","subject":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc11-sky-and-debris"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Lumen Orbit white paper (September 2024) argues that, if best practices are followed, terrestrial astronomy is unlikely to be affected by orbital data centres in its chosen dawn-dusk orbit, while naming debris mitigation as a key hurdle.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","attested":{"date":"2024-12-24","note":"The cover prints September 2024 (v1.01). The earliest copy located is an Internet Archive capture of 24 December 2024, which the cross-family check found byte-identical to the copy retrieved for the pack and again at admission."}}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-lumen-wp-published","subject":"starcloud","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lumen-orbit-wp-2024"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Lumen Orbit (now Starcloud) published the white paper \"Why we should train AI in space\", whose version 1.01 is dated September 2024.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-09","basis":"publication","note":"Month printed on the v1.01 cover; no day given."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-mouton-contests","subject":"rand-bio-redteam-report-2024","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"RAND's report on the operational risks of AI in large-scale biological attacks (RR-A2977-2, 25 January 2024) states that it found no statistically significant difference in the overall viability of biological weapon attack plans generated with or without the aid of the large language models it tested, and that such planning is beyond the capability frontier of the models available in summer 2023.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-01-25","basis":"publication","note":"Publication date given on the RAND landing page for RR-A2977-2."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"The report's conclusions also state what it does not quantify.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The report gives a measured comparison against an internet-only control as its reason, rather than only asserting the contrary."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d6-kapoor-contests","subject":"kapoor-open-foundation-models-2024-02","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-open-weights-bio-risk"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"\"On the Societal Impact of Open Foundation Models\" (arXiv v1, 27 February 2024) states that across several misuse vectors, biological weapons among them, current research is insufficient to characterise the marginal risk of open foundation models relative to pre-existing technologies.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-02-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp and the paper's own dateline."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Contests the evidential basis, not the possibility of risk. Earliest located contesting text among those searched in this pass.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The paper disputes the evidential premise by asking for marginal risk relative to pre-existing technologies, rather than asserting the contrary conclusion."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-itif-contests","subject":"itif-shift-rhetoric-2024-04","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"An ITIF commentary of 30 April 2024 states that experts, having studied the issue more closely, have concluded that large language models do not introduce a new set of capabilities or significantly enhance existing ones that could lead to a biological attack.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-04-30","basis":"publication","note":"Dateline of the post."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A policy commentary, reporting other work; the claim about an expert consensus is the post's own.","engagement":{"kind":"contrary-only","rationale":"The post asserts the contrary conclusion and attributes it to other studies, rather than giving its own reason against a premise."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d1-peppin-contests","subject":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk-2024-12","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-current-system-uplift"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint \"The Reality of AI and Biorisk\" (arXiv v1, 2 December 2024) states that the available literature does not support the notion that access to biological information and planning through current, publicly available large language models can significantly increase biorisk.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp; the paper's front matter gives 4 December 2024 as its release date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated as a finding about the literature, and limited by the paper to current models.","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"The paper gives its reading of the published studies as its reason, not only the contrary conclusion."}}}},{"id":"ab-arg-d3-peppin-articulates","subject":"peppin-reality-ai-biorisk-2024-12","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ab-prop-evaluation-validity"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The preprint \"The Reality of AI and Biorisk\" (arXiv v1, 2 December 2024) states that existing studies of AI-related biorisk are nascent, often speculative, or limited in methodological maturity and transparency.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2024-12-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the arXiv v1 stamp; the paper's front matter gives 4 December 2024 as its release date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["earliest-located"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"Stated of the studies available to the authors in late 2024."}}}],"sources":[],"evidence":[],"at":{"entities":[19,115,162,172,174,180,187,188,192,194,418,534,600,606,848,889,890,927,1091,1095,1113,1114,1240,1241,1246,1247],"claims":[267,347,358,359,373,383,384,385,386,1107,1285,1292,1338,1388,1414,1439,1444,1447,1499,1500,1512,1513,1528,1558,1559,1560,2177,2271,2277,2331,2471,3077,3078,3081,3082,3084,3087,3089,3092,3096,3099,3107,3111,3426,3427,3428,3429,3430],"sources":[],"evidence":[]},"version":"1lg47t7"}