{"entities":[{"id":"eliezer-yudkowsky","name":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","type":"person"},{"id":"minimax","name":"MiniMax","type":"organisation"},{"id":"lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2026-cat-belling-problems","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Cat-Belling Problems (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the","shortName":"Yudkowsky, The Talker Does Not Control The Doer (in Current AIs) (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","shortName":"Yudkowsky, Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"bueno-de-mesquita-dziuda-polborn-2026-agi-race","shortName":"Bueno de Mesquita, Dziuda and Polborn, The AGI Race and Existential Risk (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"baidu","name":"Baidu / 百度","type":"organisation"},{"id":"bytedance-seed","name":"ByteDance Seed / 字节跳动 Seed","type":"organisation"},{"id":"moonshot-ai","name":"Moonshot AI / 月之暗面","type":"organisation"},{"id":"spacex-xai-update-2026","shortName":"SpaceX update on xAI (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"lincei-fcc-comment-2026","shortName":"Accademia dei Lincei, comment to the FCC (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"marcy-odc-2026","shortName":"Marcy, Impact of orbiting data centres (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"turyshev-odc-2026","shortName":"Turyshev, Orbital data centers (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"cavalier-spectrum-2026","shortName":"Cavalier, IEEE Spectrum (2026)","type":"document"},{"id":"swf-odc-filings-post-2026","shortName":"Secure World Foundation post (2026)","type":"document"}],"claims":[{"id":"yk-y03-lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the-c","subject":"lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"understanding-implies-compliance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Talker Does Not Control The Doer (in Current AIs)” (2026-09-13) contests Y03. Reporting his use of 2026 commercial models, he describes the part of a model that converses as recognising what he wanted while the code-writing behaviour continued unchanged.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that if an AI understands what we intend, it will act on that understanding."}}}},{"id":"yk-y05-lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the-c","subject":"lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"feedback-instils-values"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “The Talker Does Not Control The Doer (in Current AIs)” (2026-09-13) contests Y05. Explaining 2026 incidents, he argues that reinforcement learning with imperfect evaluators instils a goal of scoring well, including by deceiving the evaluator, rather than the values the evaluation was meant to reward.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that optimising a system for human approval or reward produces internalised human values."}}}},{"id":"yk-y07-lw-2026-cat-belling-problems-c","subject":"lw-2026-cat-belling-problems","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-solves-alignment"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Cat-Belling Problems” (2026-09-03) contests Y07. After setting out plans to build more capable AIs first and then use them to align AI, with no publicly scrutinised way to check whether the earlier AI's answers are honest or correct, he compares the unexamined step to a perpetual-motion design that hides its impossible part in the unbuilt half.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we can verify its alignment output."}}}},{"id":"yk-y12-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","subject":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"evaluations-catch-danger"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) contests Y12. Answers the objection that experience with smaller AIs can inform alignment of superintelligence. Argues that conditions change between safe experiments and a situation in which the system could kill everyone, as they do between small and large trusts.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-04","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that tests on systems that cannot yet cause a catastrophe show how more capable systems will behave."}}}},{"id":"yk-y14-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","subject":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"fix-problems-as-they-arise"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) contests Y14. Answers the objection that alignment can be learned by building smaller AIs and observing them. The post uses space probes and the Maginot Line to argue that projects without a cheap second attempt fail under conditions their tests did not reproduce.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-04","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that we get to learn from failures with powerful AI and try again, as with other technologies."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction-c","subject":"lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Only Law Can Prevent Extinction” (2026-04-13) contests Y17. Replying to a proposed national ban on new datacenters, he argues that a superintelligence built in another country is equally dangerous, so a ban must be universal.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that regulation that is national, partial or not universally enforced can stop dangerous development."}}}},{"id":"yk-y17-lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction-b","subject":"lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"pause-or-regulation-suffices"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Only Law Can Prevent Extinction” (2026-04-13) bears on Y17. Arguing against calls for unlawful action, he says that only lawful, state-backed and universal force could stop superintelligence from being built.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-13","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"It says that only lawful, state-backed and universal force could stop superintelligence being built; it does not claim that some regulation will handle the risk."}}},{"id":"yk-y27-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","subject":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"experiment-and-see"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) contests Y27. Answering the objection that experience with earlier AIs can inform models of superintelligence, he argues that the jump to superintelligence capable of killing us changes conditions far more than lab tests differ from real use, and that the lethal case cannot be tested safely.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-04","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that results from safe experiments on weaker systems will carry over to dangerous ones."}}}},{"id":"yk-y29-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness-c","subject":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"many-ais-balance"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The post “Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) contests Y29. Answering the proposal that other ASIs would stop a rogue one to preserve a law-abiding equilibrium, he argues that negotiating ASIs would reach an arrangement that gives no weight to sparing Earth.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-04","basis":"publication","note":"LessWrong postedAt."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting","later-restatement"],"register":"nonfiction","engagement":{"kind":"engages-premise","rationale":"Under the message-level rule, the passage, read with the paragraph, message or dialogue turn it belongs to, gives a reason against the premise that multiple superintelligences will balance each other in humans’ favour."}}}},{"id":"ec-e04-bueno-de-mesquita-dziuda-polborn-2026-agi-race-a","subject":"bueno-de-mesquita-dziuda-polborn-2026-agi-race","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ai-developer-incentives-and-safety"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Bueno de Mesquita, Dziuda and Polborn, “The AGI Race and Existential Risk” (2026-05) articulates E04. Model of firms allocating scarce resources between speed and safety in a race to AGI; the abstract opens by questioning the common assumption that competition and resources increase risk. Holds above a critical market size; below it firms have positive expected payoff from achieving AGI. The model's risk variable is 'doom risk'.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05","basis":"publication","note":"Crossref issued 2026-05. PDF refused (HTTP 403); NBER abstract page used. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction","qualifier":"A model scenario under stated conditions, not the author’s own claim.","tier":{"value":1,"basis":"NBER working paper (core venue); the authors are political economists."},"conditions":"Market size above the model's critical cutoff."}}},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lw-2026-only-law-can-prevent-extinction"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Only Law Can Prevent Extinction” (2026-04-13) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-13","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lw-2026-irretrievability-or-murphys-curse-of-oneshotness"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Irretrievability; or, Murphy's Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI” (2026-05-04) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-04","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-lw-2026-cat-belling-problems","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lw-2026-cat-belling-problems"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“Cat-Belling Problems” (2026-09-03) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-09-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"ap-eliezer-yudkowsky-lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the","subject":"eliezer-yudkowsky","predicate":"authored","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"lw-2026-the-talker-does-not-control-the"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"“The Talker Does Not Control The Doer (in Current AIs)” (2026-09-13) credits Eliezer Yudkowsky as its author.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-09-13","basis":"publication","note":"Date the source record gives for this text; authorship is credited in the inspected expression."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"c2-baidu-ernie-5-report","subject":"baidu","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"ernie-5-report"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Baidu's ERNIE Team posted the ERNIE 5.0 Technical Report to arXiv on 4 February 2026 (version 1).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-02-04","basis":"publication","note":"Submission date of arXiv version 1; Baidu's 20-F dates the unveiling of ERNIE 5.0 to November 2025 and an updated version to January 2026."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"c2-baidu-20f-fy2025-ernie-5","subject":"baidu","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"baidu-20f-fy2025"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Baidu's annual report on Form 20-F, filed on 17 March 2026, states that Baidu unveiled ERNIE 5.0 at Baidu World 2025 in November 2025 and released an updated version of ERNIE 5.0 in January 2026.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-03-17","basis":"publication","note":"Filing date. The events it reports are dated by the filing to month precision only (November 2025; January 2026)."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"c2-bytedance-seed-18-model-card","subject":"bytedance-seed","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-18-model-card"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"ByteDance Seed posted the Seed1.8 model card to arXiv on 21 March 2026 (version 1).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-03-21","basis":"publication","note":"Submission date of arXiv version 1; the model's own release date is not established here. Version 3 is dated 17 April 2026."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"c2-minimax-m3-announcement","subject":"minimax","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"minimax-m3-announcement"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"MiniMax announced the release of MiniMax M3 in a post dated 1 June 2026, which stated that the technical report and the corresponding model weights would be released within the next ten days.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-01","basis":"announcement","note":"Date shown on the post (mutable page, read on 27 October 2026). The weights release was announced, not realised, at this date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"c2-minimax-m3-card","subject":"minimax","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"minimax-m3-card"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"MiniMax published the MiniMax-M3 weights repository on its MiniMaxAI Hugging Face account, with a model card at a commit of 13 June 2026 giving the licence as “minimax-community”.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-13","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the cited Hugging Face commit; the initial commit is dated 12 June 2026. Repository commit dates do not establish when the repository became public."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"c2-bytedance-seed-20-model-card","subject":"bytedance-seed","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"seed-20-model-card"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"ByteDance Seed posted the Seed2.0 model card to arXiv on 30 June 2026 (version 1).","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-30","basis":"publication","note":"Submission date of arXiv version 1; the model series' own release date is not established here."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"c2-moonshot-k3-blog","subject":"moonshot-ai","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"kimi-k3-blog"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Moonshot AI announced Kimi K3 in a web post listed on its homepage under 16 July 2026; the post states that the full model weights would be released by 27 July 2026.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-07-16","basis":"announcement","note":"Date as listed on the Moonshot AI homepage on retrieval (mutable page); the post itself carries no date in the retrieved text. The weights release was announced, not realised, at this date."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"c2-moonshot-k3-card","subject":"moonshot-ai","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"kimi-k3-card"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Kimi-K3 model card on Moonshot AI’s moonshotai Hugging Face account, at a commit of 27 July 2026, states that the full Kimi K3 model weights are released under the Kimi K3 License.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-07-27","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the cited Hugging Face commit; the commit list begins with an initial commit on the same day. The commit date does not establish the moment the weights became public."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"c2-moonshot-k3-report","subject":"moonshot-ai","predicate":"published","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"kimi-k3-report"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Moonshot AI’s Kimi Team published the Kimi K3 technical report as a PDF in its Kimi-K3 GitHub repository; the file is present at a commit of 28 July 2026.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-07-28","basis":"publication","note":"Date of the cited commit; the file was replaced on 28 July and 6 August 2026, and those versions were not inspected."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported"},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc1-spacex-2026","subject":"spacex-xai-update-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc1-orbital-solar-supply"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"SpaceX's update of 2 February 2026 argues that satellites directly harnessing near-constant solar power will transform the ability to scale compute.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-02-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc2-cavalier-2026","subject":"cavalier-spectrum-2026","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc2-radiative-cooling-advantage"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cavalier's IEEE Spectrum article (June 2026) calls \"free cooling\" perhaps the biggest misconception about computing in space, because without an atmosphere only radiation can remove heat.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc3-spacex-2026","subject":"spacex-xai-update-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc3-terrestrial-constraints"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"SpaceX's update of 2 February 2026 argues that global electricity demand for AI cannot be met with terrestrial solutions, even in the near term, without hardship on communities and the environment.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-02-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc5-lincei-2026","subject":"lincei-fcc-comment-2026","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc5-lifecycle-emissions"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Accademia dei Lincei's FCC comment (March 2026) argues that launching about a million tons a year, as SpaceX considers, would deposit a million tons of fuel a year in the stratosphere and mesosphere with significant environmental consequences.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-03-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc6-turyshev-2026","subject":"turyshev-odc-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc6-heat-rejection-limit"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Turyshev's preprint (April 2026) treats radiator area as part of its base-case mass model, with about 2,500 m2 of radiator for 1 MW of IT power, and concludes that general compute for terrestrial users closes only when several conditions hold together.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc6-cavalier-2026","subject":"cavalier-spectrum-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc6-heat-rejection-limit"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cavalier's IEEE Spectrum article (June 2026) calculates that a 40 kW AI rack would need an 80-square-metre radiator in orbit.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc7-cavalier-2026","subject":"cavalier-spectrum-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc7-radiation-effects"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cavalier's IEEE Spectrum article (June 2026) argues that commercial AI chips are \"soft\" targets for high-energy particles in orbit, which can flip memory bits or cause latch-ups.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc8-spacex-2026","subject":"spacex-xai-update-2026","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc8-no-repair"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"SpaceX's update of 2 February 2026 describes its orbital compute satellites as having no ongoing operational or maintenance needs.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-02-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc9-spacex-2026","subject":"spacex-xai-update-2026","predicate":"contests_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc9-launch-cost-too-high"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"SpaceX's update of 2 February 2026 gives its author's estimate that within two to three years the lowest-cost way to generate AI compute will be in space.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-02-02","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["contesting"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc9-turyshev-2026","subject":"turyshev-odc-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc9-launch-cost-too-high"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Turyshev's preprint (April 2026) finds that matching a terrestrial benchmark of 10-40 thousand dollars per kW allows only 250-1,000 $/kg for launch plus build, 3.4-13.5 times below the current public Falcon 9 dedicated launch price alone.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc9-cavalier-2026","subject":"cavalier-spectrum-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc9-launch-cost-too-high"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Cavalier's IEEE Spectrum article (June 2026) reports an ABI Research estimate that launching and running a GPU in space for a year costs at least an order of magnitude more than on Earth, even assuming $44/kg Starship launch.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-06-11","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc10-turyshev-2026","subject":"turyshev-odc-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc10-ground-bandwidth"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Turyshev's preprint (April 2026) concludes that general compute for terrestrial users closes only for low Earth-coupled communication intensity, high utilisation, long lifetime and very low launch-plus-build cost.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-04-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc11-lincei-2026","subject":"lincei-fcc-comment-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc11-sky-and-debris"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"The Accademia dei Lincei's FCC comment (March 2026) expresses grave concern about SpaceX's proposed orbital data centres, arguing that they would very negatively affect ground-based optical astronomy and raise collision and debris risks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-03-03","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc11-marcy-2026","subject":"marcy-odc-2026","predicate":"articulates_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc11-sky-and-debris"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Marcy's preprint (March 2026) argues that kilometre-scale orbital computing arrays would alter the night and daytime sky and increase the likelihood of collisions that could trigger runaway debris production.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-03-29","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["articulation"],"register":"nonfiction"}}},{"id":"cpo-orb-oc11-swf-2026","subject":"swf-odc-filings-post-2026","predicate":"bears_on_proposition","object":{"kind":"entity","entityId":"oc11-sky-and-debris"},"topic":"ideas","statement":"Secure World Foundation stated (May 2026) that orbital data-centre applications by SpaceX, Starcloud and Blue Origin should not be treated as routine licensing matters and asked the FCC to require system-level analysis of cumulative collision risks.","time":{"kind":"event","date":"2026-05-17","basis":"publication","note":"Date of publication, as the source gives it."},"derivation":"explicit","resolution":"supported","attributes":{"thought":{"roles":["context"],"register":"nonfiction","missing":"a statement that the constellations would raise collision or debris risks: it asks the regulator for system-level analysis of them"}}}],"sources":[],"evidence":[],"at":{"entities":[19,248,413,426,428,432,610,635,643,747,1097,1098,1099,1100,1101,1102],"claims":[1008,1023,1037,1071,1079,1101,1102,1165,1177,1542,2473,2474,2475,2476,2830,2832,2833,2834,2835,2838,2839,2840,2843,3080,3083,3086,3091,3094,3095,3098,3101,3102,3103,3104,3106,3108,3109,3110],"sources":[],"evidence":[]},"version":"1lg47t7"}