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In a speech of 9 May 2025, Michael S. Barr, Governor of the Federal Reserve Board, said that AI may require monetary policymakers to reassess their estimates of the natural rate of unemployment (u*) and that a permanently higher productivity growth rate of the kind that might arise from AI tends to raise the neutral interest rate (r*). Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source; Context: primary · 1 source
Date 2025-05-09 · event Records dated 2025 → Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope and limits Most developed among this group’s texts in naming two channels (u* and r*) and how they would be monitored; conditional on scenarios, the speaker’s view with disclaimer, not an FOMC estimate.
The evidence 03 primary source Supports the claim
Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market: A Scenario-Based Approach ↗ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 2025-05-09
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Source excerpt “First, AI may require monetary policymakers to reassess our estimates of the natural rate of unemployment, which informs our assessment of the cyclical state of the economy and thus the appropriate stance of monetary policy.” Location in source Section ‘Looking Ahead’, paragraph beginning ‘First, AI may require monetary policymakers’
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-06
Source details and check notes Authors Michael S. Barr Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-11-02 (SHA-256 d10adc7ead55456ec3fe3f31307cbb4f27201056de1467152c3b3de39726695e). Retrieved again at admission on 2026-11-06 (SHA-256 848459416bd523edfe3e2c1ee45ba4697aeced72444008614a98b92a6abb24b7; web pages are served with new markup on each request). HTML speech page as served on 2026-11-02 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-06 Language English (en) Attribution Michael S. Barr, “Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market: A Scenario-Based Approach”, 2025-05-09. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, AI and money (research/ai-money). The quotation (35 words) matched a fresh retrieval of 2026-11-06. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes, line-break hyphens and Unicode compatibility forms. No human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market: A Scenario-Based Approach ↗ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 2025-05-09
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Source excerpt “Economic theory suggests that a permanently higher growth rate of productivity, of the kind that might arise under either AI scenario, tends to raise r*.” Location in source Section ‘Looking Ahead’, paragraph beginning ‘Another related consideration relevant for monetary policy’
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-06
Source details and check notes Authors Michael S. Barr Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-11-02 (SHA-256 d10adc7ead55456ec3fe3f31307cbb4f27201056de1467152c3b3de39726695e). Retrieved again at admission on 2026-11-06 (SHA-256 848459416bd523edfe3e2c1ee45ba4697aeced72444008614a98b92a6abb24b7; web pages are served with new markup on each request). HTML speech page as served on 2026-11-02 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-06 Language English (en) Attribution Michael S. Barr, “Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market: A Scenario-Based Approach”, 2025-05-09. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, AI and money (research/ai-money). The quotation (25 words) matched a fresh retrieval of 2026-11-06. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes, line-break hyphens and Unicode compatibility forms. No human editorial review. primary source Context only
Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market: A Scenario-Based Approach ↗ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · 2025-05-09
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Source excerpt “The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.” Location in source Footnote 1
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-06
Source details and check notes Authors Michael S. Barr Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-11-02 (SHA-256 d10adc7ead55456ec3fe3f31307cbb4f27201056de1467152c3b3de39726695e). Retrieved again at admission on 2026-11-06 (SHA-256 848459416bd523edfe3e2c1ee45ba4697aeced72444008614a98b92a6abb24b7; web pages are served with new markup on each request). HTML speech page as served on 2026-11-02 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-06 Language English (en) Attribution Michael S. Barr, “Artificial Intelligence and the Labor Market: A Scenario-Based Approach”, 2025-05-09. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, AI and money (research/ai-money). The text’s own statement of whose views it gives, shown beside the record; it is context, not support. The quotation matched a fresh retrieval of 2026-11-06. No human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
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Date. Date the speech or remarks were delivered, as the text gives it.
Record ID am-u06-frb-2025-barr-labor-scenarios