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Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) bears on G06. Six diagnostic tests on US data (productivity growth, capital share, capital prices, capital-output ratio, information capital share, wage growth) plus a demand-side test. For the two positive tests, simple extrapolation puts the crossing point 100 years or more away. Copy claim link
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Date 2015-09 · publication Wording attested 2016-08-09. Capture of the Cowles PDF. Role Context Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Missing element (G06-a) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is "not near", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion ("no sign yet") the record bears on G06. (G06-b) Nordhaus reports two of seven tests positive for Singularity; he concludes that it is "not near", not that the data show no sign of approach. Under the literal criterion ("no sign yet") the record bears on G06. Tier Tier 1. Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. Conditions Singularity defined in the paper as "a time when the economic growth rate crosses 20% per year"; tests on US data to about 2014. Scope and limits Reclassified from articulates after the cross-family check; the G06 wording question is an open decision in the project document.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth ↗ Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021, Yale University · 2015-09
Archived copy, captured 2016-08-09: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth ↗
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Source excerpt “The tests suggest that the Singularity is not near.” Location in source Abstract
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors William D. Nordhaus Version Wayback capture of the Cowles Foundation PDF (cowles.yale.edu/.../d2021.pdf); compared with a capture of NBER Working Paper 21547. Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 d9348fe608486784675d6f95dfb78367801c0ca33217b500a0d31bee1dea5f97). Versions: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021 (2015-09): checked; NBER Working Paper 21547 (2015-09): compared; American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13(1) (2021-01): not compared. Published version: Nordhaus, W. D. (2021). Are we approaching an economic singularity? Information technology and the future of economic growth. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(1), 299–332. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170105 Working paper: Nordhaus, W. D. (2015). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021; NBER Working Paper No. 21547. https://doi.org/10.3386/w21547 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2016-08-09: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2016-08-09. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution William D. Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth”, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021, Yale University, 2015-09. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage G06-a (research/economics-growth). The quotation (9 words) matched the checked expression (nordhaus-cowles) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. primary source Supports the claim
Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth ↗ Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021, Yale University · 2015-09
Archived copy, captured 2016-08-09: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth ↗
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Source excerpt “Five of the seven tests are negative for Singularity while two are positive.” Location in source Section IX "Summary of Tests for Singularity"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors William D. Nordhaus Version Wayback capture of the Cowles Foundation PDF (cowles.yale.edu/.../d2021.pdf); compared with a capture of NBER Working Paper 21547. Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 d9348fe608486784675d6f95dfb78367801c0ca33217b500a0d31bee1dea5f97). Versions: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021 (2015-09): checked; NBER Working Paper 21547 (2015-09): compared; American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13(1) (2021-01): not compared. Published version: Nordhaus, W. D. (2021). Are we approaching an economic singularity? Information technology and the future of economic growth. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(1), 299–332. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170105 Working paper: Nordhaus, W. D. (2015). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021; NBER Working Paper No. 21547. https://doi.org/10.3386/w21547 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2016-08-09: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2016-08-09. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution William D. Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth”, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021, Yale University, 2015-09. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage G06-b (research/economics-growth). The quotation (13 words) matched the checked expression (nordhaus-cowles) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document bears on the proposition without meeting its criterion; the record names the missing element. It is not an articulation and implies no influence.
Date. Cover "September 2015"; title page "September 1, 2015". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries "September 2015".
Record ID ec-g06-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-b