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Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth” (2015-09) articulates G09. Extrapolating the two positive tests puts growth above 20% a year at least a century away. Copy claim link
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Date 2015-09 · publication Wording attested 2016-08-09. Capture of the Cowles PDF. Role Articulation Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Tier Tier 1. Tier 1 (unchanged). Economist (Yale) in a core economics series: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper and NBER Working Paper; journal version in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. Estimate by William D. Nordhaus the economy "might plausibly cross the Singularity" in "100 years or more". Horizon: 100 years or more (from 2015). Definition: economic growth rate crossing 20% per year. Conditional. Conditions: Simple extrapolation of the two of seven tests that are positive; no probability and no duration given. Scope and limits Reclassified from contests after the cross-family check: a horizon of 100 years or more overlaps "about a century" and gives no probability. Under the estimate criterion of 2026-10-09 it is Nordhaus's own estimate.
The evidence 01 primary source Supports the claim
Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth ↗ Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021, Yale University · 2015-09
Archived copy, captured 2016-08-09: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth ↗
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Source excerpt “Using simple extrapolation for the two positive tests, the time at which the economy might plausibly cross the Singularity is 100 years or more.” Location in source Section IX "Summary of Tests for Singularity"
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors William D. Nordhaus Version Wayback capture of the Cowles Foundation PDF (cowles.yale.edu/.../d2021.pdf); compared with a capture of NBER Working Paper 21547. Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 d9348fe608486784675d6f95dfb78367801c0ca33217b500a0d31bee1dea5f97). Versions: Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021 (2015-09): checked; NBER Working Paper 21547 (2015-09): compared; American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13(1) (2021-01): not compared. Published version: Nordhaus, W. D. (2021). Are we approaching an economic singularity? Information technology and the future of economic growth. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(1), 299–332. https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170105 Working paper: Nordhaus, W. D. (2015). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021; NBER Working Paper No. 21547. https://doi.org/10.3386/w21547 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2016-08-09: Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth ↗ . An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2016-08-09. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution William D. Nordhaus, “Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth”, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2021, Yale University, 2015-09. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage G09-h (research/economics-growth). The quotation (24 words) matched the checked expression (nordhaus-cowles) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
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Date. Cover "September 2015"; title page "September 1, 2015". NBER Working Paper 21547 carries "September 2015".
Record ID ec-g09-nordhaus-2015-economic-singularity-a