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Frey and Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?” (2013-09-17) articulates M02. Extending the Autor-Levy-Murnane task model, the authors argue that machine learning lets computer capital substitute for labour in non-routine as well as routine tasks, limited only by perception/manipulation, creative and social-intelligence bottlenecks. Copy claim link
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Date 2013-09-17 · publication Role Earliest located Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Tier Tier 1. Scholarly working paper with an economist author: Frey, an economic historian at the Oxford Martin School (D2, 2026-10-11, confirmed); Osborne is an engineer. Conditions Computer capital supplied perfectly elastically at a falling price; workers reallocate by comparative advantage. Scope and limits Oxford Martin School working paper dated September 17, 2013 (file served by the Oxford Martin School CDN); not the later journal version (Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017), whose wording may differ.
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The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation? ↗ Oxford Martin School working paper · 2013-09-17
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Source excerpt “our model predicts that computerisation can be extended to any non-routine task that is not subject to any engineering bottlenecks to computerisation.” Location in source pdf page 24; Section III, The technological revolutions of the twenty-first century (printed p. 24)
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Carl Benedikt Frey; Michael A. Osborne Version Full text (current file served by the Oxford Martin School; requested at oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk, which redirected to this host). Current copy retrieved directly on 2026-10-09; no archive capture (Wayback unreachable), so earlier bytes are not authenticated. SHA-256 1d0ef561ebef9ececda63403a40860aa172be953fe2b050d27de8987c9e852fc. Journal version not retrieved. Frey, C. B., & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254–280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.019 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-09 Language English (en) Attribution Carl Benedikt Frey, Michael A. Osborne, “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?”, Oxford Martin School working paper, 2013-09-17. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage M02-08 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (22 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 1d0ef561ebef9ececda63403a40860aa172be953fe2b050d27de8987c9e852fc) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
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Date. Title page "September 17, 2013". Journal version in Technological Forecasting and Social Change (2017) not retrieved. Checked in a current copy; an archive capture was not available, so earlier bytes are not authenticated.
Record ID ec-m02-frey-osborne-2013-future-of-employment-a