Choose an institution to see its records and dossier, or choose a topic.
Through year 2027 · all records, including scheduled dates 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2008 2005 1965 Show Organisations and infrastructure All types Organisation Person Document Concept Infrastructure Public body Reset filters
94 people, organisations and other records · 122 relationships · 34 claims about a valueEverything recorded up to the chosen year, whether or not still in effect · Undated records included
Claim and evidence Close ×
Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI” (2024-04-05) articulates M08. Acemoglu applies a Hulten's-theorem task framework to exposure and cost-saving estimates to bound AI's ten-year TFP effect, against much larger forecasts (Goldman Sachs, McKinsey). Allowing for hard-to-learn tasks where AI gains are smaller lowers the ten-year TFP bound. Acemoglu converts the TFP bounds to GDP effects under two investment-response assumptions. The author-hosted version of 5 April 2024 gives no more than 0.71% over ten years, and less than 0.55% allowing for hard tasks; the NBER version of May 2024 gives 0.66% and 0.53%. Copy claim link
Copy claim reference
Machine-checked, not reviewed by an editor Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 2 sources
Date 2024-04-05 · publication Wording attested 2025-01-06. Only retrieved capture of the author-hosted PDF; the current copy retrieved on 2026-10-25 is byte-identical to it. The May 2024 passages are known from a current copy of the NBER version. Role Earliest located Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Tier Tier 1. NBER working paper (core venue). Conditions (April version) Task-level cost savings from existing exposure and productivity estimates; the second figure adds the author’s easy/hard-task assumptions. (M08-04) Gains from cost savings at task level via automation and task complementarity only; excludes new tasks, deepening of automation and science-transforming effects; US economy. (M08-05) As above, plus easy/hard task classification assumptions. (M08-06) Modest investment response (capital rising in proportion to TFP) versus an investment boom like earlier automation. Scope and limits (First passage) Author-hosted version of 5 April 2024, abstract: an upper bound on total TFP over ten years. The same passage is quoted under G08 and counted once towards the quotation limit. M08 is dated by this version (2026-10-25), as G08 is. (Second passage) The same abstract’s figure after allowing for hard-to-learn tasks. (Third passage) NBER version of May 2024. Material quantitative claim: an upper bound on total (not annual) US TFP gain over 10 years from May 2024; illustrative back-of-the-envelope calculation resting on Eloundou et al. (2023) exposure, Svanberg et al. (2024) feasibility and experimental cost-saving estimates. Needs targeted recheck. This is total-factor productivity, not GDP, over ten years in total; the paper also reports an alternative of about 0.89%. The later journal version was not compared. (Fourth passage) Material quantitative claim: upper bound on total 10-year TFP gain, using 'speculative' assumptions (at most 73% easy tasks; hard-task gains about one quarter of easy). Needs targeted recheck. The figure is total TFP over ten years. (Fifth passage) Material quantitative claim: 10-year total GDP effects conditional on investment response; Acemoglu notes extra investment-driven GDP does not add to welfare. The introduction gives a lower hard-task GDP bound of 0.90%. Needs targeted recheck.
The evidence 05 primary source Supports the claim
The Simple Macroeconomics of AI ↗ Paper prepared for Economic Policy · 2024-04-05
Archived copy, captured 2025-01-06: The Simple Macroeconomics of AI ↗
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt · shown only with its context “these macroeconomic effects appear nontrivial but modest—no more than a 0.71% increase in total factor productivity over 10 years.” Read it with this context. TFP, not GDP; total over ten years; an upper bound from the task-based calculation.
Why: A total over ten years and an upper bound, which can be misread as an annual rate or a GDP figure.
Location in source Abstract
Machine-checked · 2026-10-25
Source details and check notes Authors Daron Acemoglu Version Wayback capture of the MIT-hosted PDF (economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/...). Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 ebe1e79ace306b02cf64753d09fb684c1311dd3391132a901ab944d10872c514). Versions: MIT-hosted paper (2024-04-05): checked; NBER Working Paper 32487 (2024-05): not compared; Economic Policy 40(121) (online 2024-08-06; issue 2025): not compared. Published version: Acemoglu, D. (2025). The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40(121), 13–58. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae042 Published online 2024-08-06 (Crossref). Working paper: NBER Working Paper No. 32487 (2024), https://doi.org/10.3386/w32487. The checked text is the MIT-hosted version dated 2024-04-05; journal wording not compared. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-01-06: The Simple Macroeconomics of AI ↗ . Captured 276 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-01-06. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution Daron Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI”, Paper prepared for Economic Policy; author-hosted PDF (MIT Economics), 2024-04-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked on 2026-10-25 against the author-hosted PDF retrieved that day (SHA-256 ebe1e79ace306b02cf64753d09fb684c1311dd3391132a901ab944d10872c514, identical to the 2025-01-06 capture recorded with the source). Same passage as the one quoted under G08. primary source Supports the claim
The Simple Macroeconomics of AI ↗ Paper prepared for Economic Policy · 2024-04-05
Archived copy, captured 2025-01-06: The Simple Macroeconomics of AI ↗
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt · shown only with its context “Consequently, predicted TFP gains over the next 10 years are even more modest and are predicted to be less than 0.55%.” Read it with this context. TFP, not GDP; total over ten years; an upper bound from the task-based calculation.
Why: A total over ten years and an upper bound, which can be misread as an annual rate or a GDP figure.
Location in source Abstract
Machine-checked · 2026-10-25
Source details and check notes Authors Daron Acemoglu Version Wayback capture of the MIT-hosted PDF (economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2024-04/...). Capture retrieved 2026-10-08 (SHA-256 ebe1e79ace306b02cf64753d09fb684c1311dd3391132a901ab944d10872c514). Versions: MIT-hosted paper (2024-04-05): checked; NBER Working Paper 32487 (2024-05): not compared; Economic Policy 40(121) (online 2024-08-06; issue 2025): not compared. Published version: Acemoglu, D. (2025). The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40(121), 13–58. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae042 Published online 2024-08-06 (Crossref). Working paper: NBER Working Paper No. 32487 (2024), https://doi.org/10.3386/w32487. The checked text is the MIT-hosted version dated 2024-04-05; journal wording not compared. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-08 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-01-06: The Simple Macroeconomics of AI ↗ . Captured 276 days after the recorded publication date. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-01-06. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-10-08.Attribution Daron Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI”, Paper prepared for Economic Policy; author-hosted PDF (MIT Economics), 2024-04-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Checked on 2026-10-25 against the author-hosted PDF retrieved that day (SHA-256 ebe1e79ace306b02cf64753d09fb684c1311dd3391132a901ab944d10872c514, identical to the 2025-01-06 capture recorded with the source). primary source Supports the claim
The Simple Macroeconomics of AI ↗ NBER Working Paper 32487 · 2024-05
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt · shown only with its context “I estimate that TFP effects from AI advances within the next 10 years will be modest—an upper bound that does not take into account the distinction between hard and easy tasks would be about a 0.66% increase in total within 10 years” Read it with this context. TFP, not GDP; an upper bound that ignores hard/easy tasks; 'in total within 10 years' (about 0.064% a year, sentence continues). Built on Eloundou et al. exposure, Svanberg et al. cost-effective share and experimental cost savings; the body (pdf ~p.38) gives 0.89% with Peng et al.'s higher productivity figure.
Why: Fresh-context audit (A3) judged that the quotation misleads when shown alone.
Location in source pdf page 45; 4 Concluding Remarks and Discussion (printed p. 43)
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Daron Acemoglu Version Full text. Current copy retrieved directly on 2026-10-09; no archive capture (Wayback unreachable), so earlier bytes are not authenticated. SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0. Journal version not retrieved. Acemoglu, D. (2025). The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40(121), 13–58. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae042 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-09 Language English (en) Attribution Daron Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI”, NBER Working Paper 32487, 2024-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage M08-04 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (42 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. primary source Supports the claim
The Simple Macroeconomics of AI ↗ NBER Working Paper 32487 · 2024-05
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt · shown only with its context “When the presence of hard tasks among those that will be exposed to AI is recognized, this upper bound drops to about 0.53%.” Read it with this context. Must state: TFP, total over 10 years, upper bound after accounting for hard tasks.
Why: Fresh-context audit (A3) judged that the quotation misleads when shown alone.
Location in source pdf page 45; 4 Concluding Remarks and Discussion (printed p. 43)
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Daron Acemoglu Version Full text. Current copy retrieved directly on 2026-10-09; no archive capture (Wayback unreachable), so earlier bytes are not authenticated. SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0. Journal version not retrieved. Acemoglu, D. (2025). The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40(121), 13–58. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae042 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-09 Language English (en) Attribution Daron Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI”, NBER Working Paper 32487, 2024-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage M08-05 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (23 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. primary source Supports the claim
The Simple Macroeconomics of AI ↗ NBER Working Paper 32487 · 2024-05
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt · shown only with its context “the GDP boost within the next 10 years … in the range of 0.93% − 1.16% over 10 years in total, provided that the investment increase resulting from AI is modest, and in the range of 1.4% − 1.56% in total, if there is a large investment boom.” Read it with this context. The ellipsis removes 'should also be modest'; the two ranges are conditional on modest vs large investment boom, total over 10 years, not annual.
Why: Fresh-context audit (A3) judged that the quotation misleads when shown alone.
Location in source pdf page 45; 4 Concluding Remarks and Discussion (printed p. 43)
Machine-checked · 2026-10-14
Source details and check notes Authors Daron Acemoglu Version Full text. Current copy retrieved directly on 2026-10-09; no archive capture (Wayback unreachable), so earlier bytes are not authenticated. SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0. Journal version not retrieved. Acemoglu, D. (2025). The simple macroeconomics of AI. Economic Policy, 40(121), 13–58. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae042 Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-09 Language English (en) Attribution Daron Acemoglu, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI”, NBER Working Paper 32487, 2024-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage M08-06 (research/economics-mainstream). The quotation (48 words) matched the retrieved current copy (SHA-256 ffb04f119539228da2db0699530425e56e815c890b6ebe7b5c932675e2eebdb0) in the pack's verification. Re-checked at admission on 2026-10-14 against a copy retrieved that day. Status and meaning Editorial status. Not reviewed by an editor . An exploratory record that no editor has accepted. This status does not say whether a person has read any linked passage. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Title page of the author-hosted version: "April 5, 2024". The NBER version (cover "May 2024") gives different figures; its passages are dated May 2024 by their source.
Record ID ec-m08-acemoglu-2024-simple-macroeconomics-of-ai-a