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De Garis's AI Magazine article of 1989 writes that in 20 years' time it will be commonplace to say that the twenty-first century will be dominated by the machine "if humanity so chooses—and maybe even if not". It also sets out a second scenario, which it calls "probably more popular in science fiction", in which the artilects take over and events might evolve too quickly for human beings to remain in control. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 1989 · publication Records dated 1989 → Role Earliest located Register (kind of text) Nonfiction Scope and limits A forecast of what will commonly be said, and a scenario the article introduces as 'probably more popular in science fiction'. The doubt the author states ('I might not necessarily believe this scenario will prove realistic') concerns his own Scenario 1 (the camps he labels "the Terras" and "the Cosmists"), not Scenario 2. The record states what the article says, not that the forecast is sound.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
What If AI Succeeds? The Rise of the Twenty-First Century Artilect ↗ AI Magazine 10(2), Summer 1989, pp. 17–22 (AAAI); publisher's PDF at ojs.aaai.org · 1989
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Source excerpt “In 20 years time, it will be commonplace to say that the twenty-first century will be dominated by the machine if humanity so chooses—and maybe even if not.” Location in source p. 20, 'As Machines Grow Smarter'
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-01
Source details and check notes Authors Hugo de Garis Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-31 (SHA-256 bfb40a7efb65b582325b9800ab23b1f9f854898188951d992996bc3dd0827fb5). Publisher's PDF of the printed article (AI Magazine Volume 10 Number 2, 1989); retrieved with a plain curl user agent because the site's bot challenge blocks browser user agents. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-31 Language English (en) Attribution Hugo de Garis, “What If AI Succeeds? The Rise of the Twenty-First Century Artilect”, 1989. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, machine succession, scale and acceleration (research/heterodox-thought). The quotation (28 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-31. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-11-01, item 34) classified the record’s passage blind and reached the same stance. No human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
What If AI Succeeds? The Rise of the Twenty-First Century Artilect ↗ AI Magazine 10(2), Summer 1989, pp. 17–22 (AAAI); publisher's PDF at ojs.aaai.org · 1989
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “It is simply that the artilects will take over. Events might evolve too quickly for human beings to remain in control.” Location in source p. 21, 'Scenario 2'
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-01
Source details and check notes Authors Hugo de Garis Version Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-31 (SHA-256 bfb40a7efb65b582325b9800ab23b1f9f854898188951d992996bc3dd0827fb5). Publisher's PDF of the printed article (AI Magazine Volume 10 Number 2, 1989); retrieved with a plain curl user agent because the site's bot challenge blocks browser user agents. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-10-31 Language English (en) Attribution Hugo de Garis, “What If AI Succeeds? The Rise of the Twenty-First Century Artilect”, 1989. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Candidate pack passage, machine succession, scale and acceleration (research/heterodox-thought). The quotation (21 words) matched the text retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-31. Matching ignored differences of whitespace, case, quotation marks, dashes and Unicode compatibility forms, so the source’s typography can differ. A cross-family machine check (2026-11-01, item 34) classified the record’s passage blind and reached the same stance. No human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. A passage of the document meets the proposition’s criterion. The record documents what the text states, in its register (fiction and satire are labelled); it is not evidence that the proposition is true and implies no influence on or from another text.
Date. Date of publication, as the source gives it.
Record ID ht-w01-degaris-1989-what-if-ai-succeeds