Claim · 2011 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment” (2011) reports a survey result (Baum, Goertzel and Goertzel, expert assessment at AGI-09): “human-level AI to be reached”; horizon as stated: within upcoming decades. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment → states a prediction → human-level AI to be reached

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessmentstates a prediction ↓human-level AI to be reached

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2011 · publication Records dated 2011 →

Scope and limitsThe abstract's summary; the paper's table gives medians by milestone and confidence level, which the text layer of the read file scrambles, so they are not recorded here. The abstract also reports disagreement on "timing and ordering of key milestones".

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78 (1): 185–195 · 2011

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“we did find that most experts expect human-level AI to be reached within upcoming decades”

Location in source Abstract

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Seth D. Baum; Ben Goertzel; Ted G. Goertzel
Version: Author-hosted file version, retrieved directly. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 296c2e922f8b020cc04c30bd75b5cda91ce2087d9ef4d13e5411a36814219a1b). Survey at the AGI-09 conference (2009); author's file version of 20 April 2011.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Seth D. Baum, Ben Goertzel, Ted G. Goertzel, “How long until human-level AI? Results from an expert assessment”, 2011.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 296c2e922f8b020cc04c30bd75b5cda91ce2087d9ef4d13e5411a36814219a1b). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Date of the survey report; when the survey was conducted is in the record’s survey details. Assessment conducted at the AGI-09 conference (2009).

Record ID pr-c-baum-2011-agi09