Claim · 2017-05-24 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts” (2017-05-24) reports a survey result (Grace et al., survey of machine learning researchers (2016)): “AI outperforming humans in all tasks”; horizon as stated: 50% chance in 45 years. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts → states a prediction → AI outperforming humans in all tasks

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Expertsstates a prediction ↓AI outperforming humans in all tasks

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2017-05-24 · publication Records dated 2017 →

Scope and limitsThe paper's aggregate, not any respondent's view; it reports that Asian respondents expected the event sooner than North American respondents. The interval is not converted to a year.

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

arXiv:1705.08807v1 · 2017-05-24

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years”

Location in source Abstract

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Katja Grace; John Salvatier; Allan Dafoe; Baobao Zhang; Owain Evans
Version: arXiv version 1. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 251937573ee097150656759230f03b2a47890fc484299ff00f0bd6f7eaa622ae). Survey of researchers who published at NIPS and ICML 2015, conducted in 2016.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Katja Grace, John Salvatier, Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang, Owain Evans, “When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts”, 2017-05-24.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 251937573ee097150656759230f03b2a47890fc484299ff00f0bd6f7eaa622ae). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Date of the survey report; when the survey was conducted is in the record’s survey details. Survey of researchers who published at NIPS and ICML 2015, conducted in 2016.

Record ID pr-c-grace-2017-all-tasks