When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts
Katja Grace, John Salvatier, Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang and Owain Evans’s report of a 2016 survey of researchers who published at NIPS and ICML 2015 (arXiv:1705.08807, version 1).
- Issued by
- No issuing record yet. A missing record is a gap in coverage.
- Authors credited
- No authorship claim recorded yet. The source record lists Katja Grace, John Salvatier, Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang and Owain Evans.
- Dates
- No date claim recorded yet. The source record gives the publication date as 2017-05-24.
- Exact source
- When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts arXiv:1705.08807v1 · published 2017-05-24 · arXiv version 1. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 251937573ee097150656759230f03b2a47890fc484299ff00f0bd6f7eaa622ae). Survey of researchers who published at NIPS and ICML 2015, conducted in 2016.
Appears in
No collection holds a record about this document yet.
Versions
No other versions of this document are recorded. The evidence applies to the source version listed above. Other versions, such as a preprint, working paper or journal publication, are not identified or substituted.
Documentary relations
Each relation is listed separately. Citing, crediting and reporting the use of a method are different acts, and none of them shows agreement or influence by itself.
Not recorded for this document: cites · cited by · explicitly credits · reports using a method from · method reported as used by · applies parts of · parts applied by · discusses · reports evaluation of. A missing record does not show that the relation does not exist.
Other recorded relations
- states a prediction“When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts” (2017-05-24) reports a survey result (Grace et al., survey of machine learning researchers (2016)): “automating all human jobs”; horizon as stated: 50% chance in 120 years. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.2017-05-24 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗
- states a prediction“When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts” (2017-05-24) reports a survey result (Grace et al., survey of machine learning researchers (2016)): “AI outperforming humans in all tasks”; horizon as stated: 50% chance in 45 years. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.2017-05-24 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗
- states a prediction“When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts” (2017-05-24) reports a survey result (Grace et al., survey of machine learning researchers (2016)): “AI will outperform humans in many activities”; horizon as stated: in the next ten years (examples: translating languages by 2024, writing high-school essays by 2026, driving a truck by 2027). The record says nothing about whether the event happened.2017-05-24 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗