Claim · 2024-01-05 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI” (2024-01-05) reports a survey result (Grace et al., survey of AI authors (2023)): “unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task”; horizon as stated: 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI → states a prediction → unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AIstates a prediction ↓unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2024-01-05 · publication Records dated 2024 →

Scope and limitsThe report compares the 50% year with the 2022 survey's; that comparison is the report's.

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI

arXiv:2401.02843v1 · 2024-01-05

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047.”

Location in source Abstract

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Katja Grace; Harlan Stewart; Julia Fabienne Sandkühler; Stephen Thomas; Ben Weinstein-Raun; Jan Brauner
Version: arXiv version 1. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 98ebcf757938892552d5a91a0e630486e0751339125480bba18fad145209cea1). Survey conducted in October 2023.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Katja Grace, Harlan Stewart, Julia Fabienne Sandkühler, Stephen Thomas, Ben Weinstein-Raun, Jan Brauner, “Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI”, 2024-01-05.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 98ebcf757938892552d5a91a0e630486e0751339125480bba18fad145209cea1). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Date of the survey report; when the survey was conducted is in the record’s survey details. Survey conducted in October 2023.

Record ID pr-c-grace-2024-every-task