Claim · 2014 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion” (2014) reports a survey result (Müller and Bostrom, survey of expert opinion): “high-level machine intelligence will be developed”; horizon as stated: 50%: around 2040-2050; 90%: by 2075 (median estimates). The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion → states a prediction → high-level machine intelligence will be developed

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinionstates a prediction ↓high-level machine intelligence will be developed

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2014 · publication Records dated 2014 →

Scope and limitsThe question asks about "such HLMI" as defined in the paper's preceding question. The figure is the median of respondents' estimates across the four groups; the paper reports each group separately.

The evidence 02

primary sourceSupports the claim

Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion

In V. C. Müller (ed.), Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence (Springer, Synthese Library) · 2014

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“The median estimate of respondents was for a one in two chance that high-level machine intelligence will be developed around 2040-2050, rising to a nine in ten chance by 2075.”

Location in source Abstract (PDF p. 1)

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Vincent C. Müller; Nick Bostrom
Version: Author-hosted preprint, retrieved directly. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 600f9eb903210ae6947e4c312f28d6f192dd251a54c2ae159db591857c070791). The file reads "forthcoming 2014"; questionnaire distributed 2012/2013. The volume appeared in 2016.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Vincent C. Müller, Nick Bostrom, “Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion”, 2014.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 600f9eb903210ae6947e4c312f28d6f192dd251a54c2ae159db591857c070791). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

primary sourceSupports the claim

Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion

In V. C. Müller (ed.), Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence (Springer, Synthese Library) · 2014

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“For the purposes of this question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption.”

Location in source §3.2 "When HLMI?", question 2 (PDF p. 9)

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Vincent C. Müller; Nick Bostrom
Version: Author-hosted preprint, retrieved directly. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 600f9eb903210ae6947e4c312f28d6f192dd251a54c2ae159db591857c070791). The file reads "forthcoming 2014"; questionnaire distributed 2012/2013. The volume appeared in 2016.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Vincent C. Müller, Nick Bostrom, “Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion”, 2014.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 600f9eb903210ae6947e4c312f28d6f192dd251a54c2ae159db591857c070791). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Date of the survey report; when the survey was conducted is in the record’s survey details. File reads "forthcoming 2014"; questionnaire distributed 2012/2013; volume published 2016.

Record ID pr-c-muller-bostrom-2014-hlmi