Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion
Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom’s report of a survey of four groups of experts (2012/2013), in Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence (Springer, Synthese Library); the authors’ file reads “forthcoming 2014”.
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- Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion In V. C. Müller (ed.), Fundamental Issues of Artificial Intelligence (Springer, Synthese Library) · published 2014 · Author-hosted preprint, retrieved directly. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 600f9eb903210ae6947e4c312f28d6f192dd251a54c2ae159db591857c070791). The file reads "forthcoming 2014"; questionnaire distributed 2012/2013. The volume appeared in 2016.
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- states a prediction“Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion” (2014) reports a survey result (Müller and Bostrom, survey of expert opinion): “high-level machine intelligence will be developed”; horizon as stated: 50%: around 2040-2050; 90%: by 2075 (median estimates). The record says nothing about whether the event happened.2014 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗
- states a prediction“Future Progress in Artificial Intelligence: A Survey of Expert Opinion” (2014) reports a survey result (Müller and Bostrom, survey of expert opinion): “systems will move on to superintelligence”; horizon as stated: in less than 30 years thereafter (after high-level machine intelligence); the question asked for probabilities "within (2 years / 30 years) thereafter". The record says nothing about whether the event happened.2014 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗