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“Long Bet 1: By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test” (2002) records a public bet, Mitchell Kapor (predictor) and Ray Kurzweil (challenger), on Long Bets: “By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test.”; horizon as stated: By 2029. The record says nothing about whether the event happened. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2002 · event Records dated 2002 → Scope and limits On the live page, the bet's statement is a negative prediction made by Kapor; Kurzweil is the challenger. The same page carries the "Detailed Terms" ("A Wager on the Turing Test: The Rules", "As prepared by Ray Kurzweil in consultation with Mitchell Kapor"), which set the judges and procedure. The live page does not authenticate the wording of 2002. An Internet Archive capture of 7 June 2002 (20020607200712), read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05, states the bet differently: "A computer - or "machine intelligence" - will pass the Turing Test by 2029.", with "Mitchell Kapor (mkapor) initiator", "Ray Kurzweil (rkurzweil) responder" and "Stakes $20,000 ($10,000 each)". The record keeps the live wording, attested from 2026-11-02. No outcome is recorded.
The evidence 02 primary source Supports the claim
Long Bet 1: By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test ↗ Long Bets · 2002
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Source excerpt “Duration 27 years (02002-02029) “By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test.” Location in source Bet header
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Long Bets (The Long Now Foundation); Mitchell Kapor; Ray Kurzweil Version Live bet page, retrieved directly; an Internet Archive capture of 7 June 2002 (20020607200712), read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05, words the bet differently. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 c860e84baf6d4351a7d045ec6bbaafa519d1adf40b7a8d62374e7d59d84d2ae3). Duration given as "27 years (02002-02029)". Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Long Bets (The Long Now Foundation), Mitchell Kapor, Ray Kurzweil, “Long Bet 1: By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test”, 2002. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 c860e84baf6d4351a7d045ec6bbaafa519d1adf40b7a8d62374e7d59d84d2ae3). Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Long Bet 1: By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test ↗ Long Bets · 2002
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Source excerpt “PREDICTOR Mitchell Kapor CHALLENGER Ray Kurzweil STAKES $20,000 will go to The Electronic Frontier Foundation if Kapor wins, or The Kurzweil Foundation if Kurzweil wins.” Location in source Bet header, parties and stakes
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Long Bets (The Long Now Foundation); Mitchell Kapor; Ray Kurzweil Version Live bet page, retrieved directly; an Internet Archive capture of 7 June 2002 (20020607200712), read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05, words the bet differently. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 c860e84baf6d4351a7d045ec6bbaafa519d1adf40b7a8d62374e7d59d84d2ae3). Duration given as "27 years (02002-02029)". Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Long Bets (The Long Now Foundation), Mitchell Kapor, Ray Kurzweil, “Long Bet 1: By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test”, 2002. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 c860e84baf6d4351a7d045ec6bbaafa519d1adf40b7a8d62374e7d59d84d2ae3). Machine-checked; no human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.
Date. Year the bet was made. Bet duration "27 years (02002-02029)"; the page read is the live bet page.
Record ID pr-d-longbets-1-turing-test-2029