Claim and evidence Close ×
A copy of 2025-01-05 of Metaculus question 5121 displays the platform’s community prediction for the question “When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?”; horizon as stated: 2031-06-14 (the community prediction as displayed; the community table's "median", between "lower 25%" 2027-05-10 and "upper 75%" 2041-08-31). The record says nothing about whether the event happened. Copy claim link
Copy claim reference
Machine-checked Stated in source Supported
Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2025-01-05 · event Records dated 2025 → Scope and limits Rests on transcriptions by a reviewer from a different model family of a copy the preparing assistant could not reach; that reviewer read the copy again on 2026-11-05 and confirms the quoted wording. The figure is the platform's aggregate of its forecasters on one day ("Total Forecasters 1442"), not a prediction by any named person. The capture displays the date as the community prediction and labels it "median" in the community table, with the quartiles shown; no date is derived from a serialised distribution. The question's opening date is not displayed on the capture and is not recorded.
The evidence 05 primary source Supports the claim
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ Metaculus · Publication date unknown
Archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt “When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?” Location in source Question title
Machine-checked · 2026-11-03
Source details and check notes Authors Metaculus Version Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family; live Metaculus pages were not used, and neither the site nor the archive answered the preparing assistant. Internet Archive capture 20250105212836. The question was opened earlier; its title and resolution criteria changed between captures, so the record uses this capture's own. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ . No publication date is recorded for this source. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-01-05. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Metaculus, “When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025)”, 2025-01-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ Metaculus · Publication date unknown
Archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt “2031-06-14” Location in source Community prediction as displayed
Machine-checked · 2026-11-03
Source details and check notes Authors Metaculus Version Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family; live Metaculus pages were not used, and neither the site nor the archive answered the preparing assistant. Internet Archive capture 20250105212836. The question was opened earlier; its title and resolution criteria changed between captures, so the record uses this capture's own. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ . No publication date is recorded for this source. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-01-05. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Metaculus, “When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025)”, 2025-01-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ Metaculus · Publication date unknown
Archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt “Community Prediction 2031-06-14 (2027-05-10 - 2041-08-31)” Location in source Forecast summary above the prediction panel
Machine-checked · 2026-11-05
Source details and check notes Authors Metaculus Version Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family; live Metaculus pages were not used, and neither the site nor the archive answered the preparing assistant. Internet Archive capture 20250105212836. The question was opened earlier; its title and resolution criteria changed between captures, so the record uses this capture's own. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ . No publication date is recorded for this source. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-01-05. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Metaculus, “When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025)”, 2025-01-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ Metaculus · Publication date unknown
Archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt “lower 25% median upper 75%” Location in source Community table, column labels
Machine-checked · 2026-11-05
Source details and check notes Authors Metaculus Version Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family; live Metaculus pages were not used, and neither the site nor the archive answered the preparing assistant. Internet Archive capture 20250105212836. The question was opened earlier; its title and resolution criteria changed between captures, so the record uses this capture's own. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ . No publication date is recorded for this source. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-01-05. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Metaculus, “When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025)”, 2025-01-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ Metaculus · Publication date unknown
Archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗
Copy source reference
Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
Copy APA
Download BibTeX Download RIS Download CSL-JSON
Source excerpt “Total Forecasters 1442” Location in source Forecast summary
Machine-checked · 2026-11-05
Source details and check notes Authors Metaculus Version Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family; live Metaculus pages were not used, and neither the site nor the archive answered the preparing assistant. Internet Archive capture 20250105212836. The question was opened earlier; its title and resolution criteria changed between captures, so the record uses this capture's own. Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Archive copy Open archived copy, captured 2025-01-05: When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025) ↗ . No publication date is recorded for this source. An archive copy shows only what the archive retrieved on 2025-01-05. It does not prove what the page said earlier, and it can differ from the copy checked on 2026-11-05.Attribution Metaculus, “When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced? (Metaculus question 5121, capture of 5 January 2025)”, 2025-01-05. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-05. Copy read: Internet Archive capture 20250105212836, read by a reviewer from a different model family on 2026-11-03 and again on 2026-11-05; the preparing assistant could not reach it. Machine-checked; no human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.
Date. Date of the copy the figure is read from. The figure is the one displayed on this capture; the question page changes continually.
Record ID pr-d-metaculus-5121-capture-2025-01-05