Claim · 2022-06-16 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?” (2022-06-16) states a prediction by Joseph Carlsmith: “an existential catastrophe of this kind will occur”; horizon as stated: by 2070. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk? → states a prediction → an existential catastrophe of this kind will occur

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?states a prediction ↓an existential catastrophe of this kind will occur

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2022-06-16 · publication Records dated 2022 →

Scope and limitsThe estimate is derived from the author's credences in six premises. Both the original figure and the update are in the same passage.

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?

arXiv:2206.13353 · 2022-06-16

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“I end up with an overall estimate of ~5% that an existential catastrophe of this kind will occur by 2070. (May 2022 update: since making this report public in April 2021, my estimate here has gone up, and is now at >10%.)”

Location in source Abstract

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Joseph Carlsmith
Version: Retrieved for the candidate pack on 2026-10-29 (SHA-256 3f434a070cd7842908e648eba79ecdddcb62ba09681cca86dfd18485157b9887). arXiv v1 PDF (2206.13353v1, 16 Jun 2022), which includes a "May 2022 update" to the abstract; the report is headed April 2021. The cross-family check retrieved it again on 2026-10-31, with the same bytes.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-10-29
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Joseph Carlsmith, “Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?”, 2022-06-16.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 3f434a070cd7842908e648eba79ecdddcb62ba09681cca86dfd18485157b9887). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Publication date of the text. Report made public in April 2021 (claimed: the abstract's own statement); the read version carries a May 2022 update.

Record ID pr-e-carlsmith-2022-catastrophe-2070