Claim · 2022-08-02 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“Two-year update on my personal AI timelines” (2022-08-02) states a prediction by Ajeya Cotra: “transformative AI”; horizon as stated: ~15% by 2036; a median of ~2050. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

Two-year update on my personal AI timelines → states a prediction → transformative AI

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

Two-year update on my personal AI timelinesstates a prediction ↓transformative AI

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2022-08-02 · publication Records dated 2022 →

Scope and limitsA retrospective report of an earlier estimate, dated by the 2022 post; it is not the 2020 report's wording.

The evidence 02

primary sourceSupports the claim

Two-year update on my personal AI timelines

LessWrong / Alignment Forum · 2022-08-02

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“Roughly ~15% probability of transformative AI by 2036”

Location in source Opening section, bottom line estimates, first item

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-03

Source details and check notes

Authors: Ajeya Cotra
Version: Post body retrieved through the site's GraphQL endpoint. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c).
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Ajeya Cotra, “Two-year update on my personal AI timelines”, 2022-08-02.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

primary sourceSupports the claim

Two-year update on my personal AI timelines

LessWrong / Alignment Forum · 2022-08-02

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“A median of ~2050 for transformative AI”

Location in source Same list, second item

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-03

Source details and check notes

Authors: Ajeya Cotra
Version: Post body retrieved through the site's GraphQL endpoint. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c).
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Ajeya Cotra, “Two-year update on my personal AI timelines”, 2022-08-02.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Date of the post.

Record ID pr-e-cotra-2020-bio-anchors-as-reported-2022