Two-year update on my personal AI timelines
Ajeya Cotra’s post of 2 August 2022 on LessWrong and the Alignment Forum, updating the estimates of her 2020 draft report on biological anchors.
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- Two-year update on my personal AI timelines LessWrong / Alignment Forum · published 2022-08-02 · Post body retrieved through the site's GraphQL endpoint. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c).
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- states a prediction“Two-year update on my personal AI timelines” (2022-08-02) states a prediction by Ajeya Cotra: “transformative AI”; horizon as stated: ~15% by 2036; a median of ~2050. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.2022-08-02 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗
- states a prediction“Two-year update on my personal AI timelines” (2022-08-02) states a prediction by Ajeya Cotra: “transformative AI”; horizon as stated: ~15% by 2030; ~35% by 2036; a median of ~2040; ~60% by 2050. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.2022-08-02 · publication · Stated in source · Supported Inspect claim & evidence ↗