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“Two-year update on my personal AI timelines” (2022-08-02) states a prediction by Ajeya Cotra: “transformative AI”; horizon as stated: ~15% by 2030; ~35% by 2036; a median of ~2040; ~60% by 2050. The record says nothing about whether the event happened. Copy claim link
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Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source
Date 2022-08-02 · publication Records dated 2022 → Scope and limits The post's subject is transformative AI; the 2022 figures are given as a list after "I now expect something roughly like this". The post discusses how much these numbers have moved and how uncertain they are; read the post before relying on any single figure.
The evidence 04 primary source Supports the claim
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines ↗ LessWrong / Alignment Forum · 2022-08-02
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Source excerpt “I now expect something roughly like this: ~15% probability by 2030 (a decrease of ~6 years from 2036). ~35% probability by 2036” Location in source Section on the updated estimates
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Ajeya Cotra Version Post body retrieved through the site's GraphQL endpoint. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Ajeya Cotra, “Two-year update on my personal AI timelines”, 2022-08-02. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines ↗ LessWrong / Alignment Forum · 2022-08-02
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Source excerpt “A median of ~2040 (a decrease of ~10 years from 2050).” Location in source Same list
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Ajeya Cotra Version Post body retrieved through the site's GraphQL endpoint. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Ajeya Cotra, “Two-year update on my personal AI timelines”, 2022-08-02. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines ↗ LessWrong / Alignment Forum · 2022-08-02
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “A median of ~2050 for transformative AI” Location in source Opening section
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Ajeya Cotra Version Post body retrieved through the site's GraphQL endpoint. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Ajeya Cotra, “Two-year update on my personal AI timelines”, 2022-08-02. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Machine-checked; no human editorial review. primary source Supports the claim
Two-year update on my personal AI timelines ↗ LessWrong / Alignment Forum · 2022-08-02
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Cite the original source Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.
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Source excerpt “~60% probability by 2050 (a ~1.5x likelihood ratio vs 50%).” Location in source Same list, last item
How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher
Machine-checked · 2026-11-02
Source details and check notes Authors Ajeya Cotra Version Post body retrieved through the site's GraphQL endpoint. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Canonical address Open the canonical source ↗ Accessed 2026-11-05 Language English (en) Attribution Ajeya Cotra, “Two-year update on my personal AI timelines”, 2022-08-02. Reuse No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution. Check notes Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 05af7fb05180de9c9e810579e519a82c65b63325002a017c40cb7822e9a8954c). Machine-checked; no human editorial review. Status and meaning Editorial status. Machine-checked . Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.
Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.
Date. Date of the post.
Record ID pr-e-cotra-2022-update