Claim · 2025-04-03 · publication · Stated in source · Supported

“AI 2027” (2025-04-03) states a prediction by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean (AI 2027): “the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution”; horizon as stated: over the next decade. The record says nothing about whether the event happened.

One recorded claim. The claim panel gives its qualification, the source passages with their place in each source, and how it was checked.

What it connects

AI 2027 → states a prediction → the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution

Where it appears

Predictions on record →

Claim and evidence

AI 2027states a prediction ↓the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution

Machine-checkedStated in sourceSupported

Supporting evidence: primary · 1 source

Date: 2025-04-03 · publication Records dated 2025 →

Scope and limitsThe opening sentence of the site; the authors call the scenario that follows "our best guess" at what that might look like. The scenario's dated steps are not recorded here.

The evidence 01

primary sourceSupports the claim

AI 2027

AI Futures Project (ai-2027.com) · 2025-04-03

Cite the original source

Cite the original document, not Selekoa. Check these details against it.

Source excerpt

“We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution. We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like.”

Location in source Opening paragraph

How it was read Retrieved directly from the publisher

Machine-checked · 2026-11-02

Source details and check notes

Authors: Daniel Kokotajlo; Scott Alexander; Thomas Larsen; Eli Lifland; Romeo Dean
Version: Live page, retrieved directly. Retrieved 2026-11-05 (HTTP 200, SHA-256 0bd435099c85d0bffa7df7c23fce5558f78ad05e0a84dbed0a331e8e0bdc8f11). The page reads "April 3rd 2025"; live page.
Canonical address: Open the canonical source ↗
Accessed: 2026-11-05
Language: English (en)
Attribution: Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean, “AI 2027”, 2025-04-03.
Reuse: No open redistribution licence asserted. Bibliographic metadata, editorial paraphrases and short attributed quotations (at most 50 words each). Recheck terms before wider redistribution.
Check notes: Matched by machine in a retrieval of 2026-11-05 (SHA-256 0bd435099c85d0bffa7df7c23fce5558f78ad05e0a84dbed0a331e8e0bdc8f11). Machine-checked; no human editorial review.

Status and meaning

Editorial status. Machine-checked. Machines found this record and checked it against its sources; no person accepted it individually. Each evidence record above shows how it was checked.

Relation. The document states a prediction: an event, by a date or within a horizon, in the document’s own words. The record is dated by the document, never by the target date. It documents what the text states and when; it says nothing about whether the event happened, and it implies no agreement or influence.

Date. Publication date of the text.

Record ID pr-f-ai2027-2025-next-decade